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Application of the Precautionary Approach to the Management of Marine Mammals in northern Canada 将预防方法应用于加拿大北部海洋哺乳动物的管理
Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.7557/3.7413
Mike O. Hammill, G. Stenson, T. Doniol-Valcroze, Shelley L. C. Lang
Canada is committed to managing its resources using a Precautionary Approach (PA). However, when applying this approach to Arctic marine mammals, the Government of Canada must also respect the land claims agreements it has signed with Canada’s Inuit. Under these agreements the co-management boards are responsible for wildlife management within the land claim area. In addition to protecting the rights of hunters to harvest, the land claims agreements also call for the development of management systems that respect the principles of conservation and ensure sustainability of the resource, potentially resulting in a management paradox. We present criteria by which the status of a population can be assessed, and an appropriate PA framework applied. If sufficient data are available to understand the population dynamics of a given stock (i.e., a Data Rich situation), management decisions can be based upon an appropriate population model with quantitatively estimated reference levels. In cases where the population dynamics are poorly understood (i.e., Data Poor), a more conservative approach, referred to as the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) should be used to provide advice on sustainable harvest levels. Generally, only the most recent estimate of abundance is used in the PBR calculation which may ignore other data. We propose that if sufficient data are available to fit a population model, while still not sufficient to be considered Data Rich, the modelled estimate of current abundance can be used for a more robust PBR estimate. We also review guidelines for the choice of the recovery factor which is part of the PBR calculation. The apparent management paradox can be addressed within the context of a Management Procedure or Management Strategy Evaluation where Indigenous Knowledge and Western Science can contribute to setting management objectives, decision rules and appropriate time-frames that can be evaluated within a simulation environment. 
加拿大致力于采用预防方法 (PA) 管理其资源。然而,在对北极海洋哺乳动物采用这种方法时,加拿大政府还必须尊重它与加拿大因纽特人签署的土地权属协议。根据这些协议,共同管理委员会负责土地权属区内的野生动物管理。除了保护猎人的捕猎权之外,土地权属协议还要求制定尊重保护原则并确保资源可持续性的管理制度,这可能会造成管理上的矛盾。我们提出了评估种群状况的标准,并应用了适当的保护区框架。如果有足够的数据来了解特定种群的种群动态(即数据丰富的情况),管理决策可基于适当的种群模型和量化估算的参考水平。如果对种群动态知之甚少(即数据贫乏),则应采用更为保守的方法,即潜在生物去除量(PBR),为可持续捕捞量提供建议。一般来说,在计算潜在生物去除量时,只使用最新的丰度估计值,而可能忽略其他数据。我们建议,如果有足够的数据可用于拟合一个种群模型,但仍不足以被视为数据丰富,则可将当前丰度的模型估算值用于更稳健的 PBR 估算值。我们还回顾了作为 PBR 计算一部分的恢复因子的选择准则。这一明显的管理悖论可以在管理程序或管理战略评估的背景下加以解决,在此背景下,本土知识和西方科学可以为设定管理目标、决策规则和适当的时间框架做出贡献,这些都可以在模拟环境中进行评估。
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引用次数: 0
Addressing epistemic injustices in species at risk assessments through improved credibility and legitimacy: case study of narwhal management in Ittoqqortoormiit 通过提高可信度和合法性解决濒危物种评估中的认识论不公正问题:Ittoqqortoormiit 独角鲸管理案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.7557/3.7371
Tanguy Sandré, J. Vanderlinden, Jeanne-Marie Gherardi, Zhiwei Zhu, F. Wickson
The regulation of seal and whale hunting in Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland) belongs to the Naalakkersuisut (National Government), which is notably informed by the work of the Scientific Committee (SC) of the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO). Since 2004, quotas were set in Kalaallit Nunaat to regulate hunting practices and promote ecologically sustainable harvesting. In South East Greenland, the SC's recommendations for the closure of the narwhal (Monodon monoceros or qialuar) hunt since 2019 has met both national disagreement and local resistance due to a desire to preserve the long-standing relation with narwhals organised around hunting, which is strongly intertwined within place-based communities’ experiences. The situation requires further attention to deploy an informed dialogue in the light of both available literature and local narratives capturing knowledge and values which are underrepresented within scientific discussions, as are social sciences. Grounded in repetitive and long-standing research fieldwork in Ittoqqortoormiit, and extensive qualitative data collection from 2019 to 2023, the article shows that community members express strong attachment and concern towards narwhal hunting together with the social, economic and cultural importance of mattak (narwhal skin). Local narratives also suggest that the resistance against limitations on narwhal hunting is not to be understood only as a conservatism that aims to preserve traditional hunting practices or about sustaining economic incomes for hunters, but in a significant way as protest against epistemic injustices, resulting from a feeling of being systematically unheard, distrusted and uninvolved in decision-making processes. Together with the expression of concern and attachment for narwhal hunting, the tensions between scientific knowledge and local value and knowledge were reiterated while shared concern for the preservation of the species is affirmed. We show that legitimacy and credibility of the scientific evidence and species management are contested. Ultimately, we ascertain the situation of epistemic injustices and raise the need to shift towards decolonial practices to open the possibility for the emergence of a fair and respectful dialogue that would support narwhal preservation, through securing hunters' material living conditions, community food security, and ensuring consideration and respect is given to individual and collective immaterial dimensions associated with narwhal.
格陵兰岛的海豹和鲸鱼狩猎活动由格陵兰政府监管,北大西洋海洋哺乳动物委员会(NAMMCO)科学委员会(SC)的工作为监管提供了重要信息。自 2004 年起,在 Kalaallit Nunaat 设置了配额,以规范狩猎行为并促进生态上可持续的捕捞。在格陵兰岛东南部,自然科学委员会建议自 2019 年起关闭独角鲸(Monodon monoceros 或 qialuar)狩猎活动,但这一建议既遭到了国家的反对,也遭到了当地的抵制,原因是当地居民希望保留与独角鲸长期以来围绕狩猎活动而形成的关系,这种关系与当地社区的经验紧密相连。这种情况需要进一步关注,以便根据现有文献和当地人的叙述展开知情对话,这些文献和当地人的叙述捕捉到了科学讨论中代表性不足的知识和价值观,社会科学也是如此。文章以伊图科尔托奥尔米特(Ittoqqortoormiit)重复和长期的实地研究工作为基础,从2019年至2023年进行了广泛的定性数据收集,结果表明,社区成员对捕猎独角鲸以及mattak(独角鲸皮)的社会、经济和文化重要性表达了强烈的依恋和关注。当地人的叙述还表明,对限制捕猎独角鲸的抵制不能仅仅理解为旨在保护传统捕猎习俗或维持捕猎者经济收入的保守主义,而在很大程度上是对认识论不公正的抗议,这种抗议源于一种系统性的不被倾听、不被信任和不参与决策过程的感觉。在表达对独角鲸狩猎的关注和依恋的同时,科学知识与当地价值和知识之间的紧张关系也得到了重申,同时对物种保护的共同关注也得到了肯定。我们表明,科学证据和物种管理的合法性和可信度存在争议。最终,我们确定了认识论上的不公正情况,并提出需要转向非殖民实践,以开启公平和相互尊重的对话的可能性,通过确保狩猎者的物质生活条件、社区的食品安全以及确保考虑和尊重与独角鲸相关的个人和集体非物质层面,支持独角鲸的保护。
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引用次数: 0
In Memoriam: Gísli Arnór Víkingsson — 1956 - 2022 在记忆中:Gísli Arnór Víkingsson——1956-2022
Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.7557/3.6888
G. Desportes, D. Pike, M. Heide‐Jørgensen, J. Sigurjonsson
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引用次数: 0
Bearded seals in the Atlantic Arctic: review of post 2010 knowledge available for informing stock assessments 大西洋北极地区的胡须海豹:2010年后为种群评估提供信息的知识综述
Pub Date : 2022-12-29 DOI: 10.7557/3.6883
Nicolai Scherdin, Jana Djukarić, G. Desportes
The last extensive (pan-Arctic) review on knowledge available on the bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) was conducted by Cameron et al. in 2010. As bearded seals are hunted off Svalbard and Greenland but no stock assessments are available, NAMMCO requested a status review, and if possible, an assessment of the species in its area. This literature review attempts to summarise the knowledge that has become available post 2010, with a focus on the Atlantic Arctic. A large amount of information has become available on the behaviour of the bearded seal, with hearing, vocalisation, haul-out behaviour and movement patterns (through satelitte tagging), and their phenology, being well studied. A database of baseline blood parameters is slowly being built but is still limited. New data on distribution has emerged from PAM studies and non-targeted surveys. Abundance estimates are missing for Svalbard, but partial estimates have become available for the North Water Polynya in 2009 and 2014. Additionally, observations of bearded seals from aerial line-transect surveys are available for several areas of Greenland but have not been analysed. More information has become available on the impact of anthropogenic stressors, such as climate change and other related environmental changes, although demographic impacts of changes are missing. Catch data exists for both Svalbard and Greenland, but for the latter the data needs to be thoroughly validated. In summary, information on stock structure as well as local and global abundance estimates, which are both important to assess the sustainability of current catches, are still missing. However other lines of evidence can inform the delineation of management areas and the results of a pan-arctic genetic study should become available shortly. There is survey data available from Greenland that could be used to generate local abundance estimates, the analysis of which should be prioritised.
2010年,Cameron等人对有胡子海豹(Erignathus barbatus)的知识进行了最后一次广泛(泛北极)的回顾。由于须海豹在斯瓦尔巴群岛和格陵兰岛附近被猎杀,但没有种群评估,NAMMCO要求对其现状进行审查,如果可能的话,对其所在地区的物种进行评估。这篇文献综述试图总结2010年后可用的知识,重点是大西洋北极。人们已经获得了大量关于胡须海豹行为的信息,包括听觉、发声、拖出行为和运动模式(通过卫星标记),以及它们的物候学都得到了很好的研究。基线血液参数数据库正在缓慢建立,但仍然有限。从PAM研究和非目标调查中出现了关于分布的新数据。斯瓦尔巴群岛的丰度估算数据缺失,但2009年和2014年的部分估算数据已经可用。此外,从格陵兰岛的几个地区的空中样线调查中可以观察到有胡须的海豹,但尚未进行分析。关于人为压力源,如气候变化和其他相关环境变化的影响,已有更多的信息,尽管这些变化对人口的影响尚不清楚。斯瓦尔巴群岛和格陵兰岛都有捕捞数据,但后者的数据需要彻底验证。总而言之,关于种群结构以及当地和全球丰度估计的资料仍然缺乏,而这两者对评估当前渔获量的可持续性都很重要。然而,其他证据线可以为划定管理区域提供信息,泛北极遗传研究的结果将很快得到。格陵兰岛的调查数据可用来估算当地的丰度,对这些数据的分析应优先考虑。
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引用次数: 1
Preface 前言
Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.7557/3.6881
Albert Fernández Chacón
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引用次数: 0
On the availability bias in narwhal abundance estimates 关于独角鲸丰度估算中的可得性偏差
Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.7557/3.6518
M. Heide‐Jørgensen, J. Lage
Abundance estimation of narwhals is usually done with either visual or photographic aerial surveys. The basic estimation for both methods is detection of whales at the surface, and to obtain fully corrected abundance estimates, the at-surface detections need to be corrected for the proportion of whales that, at any given time, is available to be detected at the surface. The surfacing time or ‘availability correction factor’ is obtained from whales instrumented with dive recorders, that either relay concatenated information on the proportion of time spent at different depth intervals to satellites, or from recovered instruments that collect complete dive profiles, measured at high frequency. Concatenated data binned in depth histograms from Satellite-Linked-Time-Depth-Recorders (SLTDR) falls in two categories, where those that correct the zero depth values with information from the saltwater switch provide larger and apparently more accurate surfacing times, than those collected from instruments that does not correct the zero depth readings. The erroneous detection of near-surface pressure values is likely due to slow response of pressure transducers made from temperature sensitive materials. The high frequency sampling from AcousondeTM recorders documents erroneous surface detections, and adjustments of the dive profiles are needed to obtain realistic near-surface values. Any reconstruction of dive profiles and near-surface values apparently involves some level of corrections and it is recommended, for development of availability correction factors for aerial surveys, that data from zero-adjusted SLTDRs or TDR instruments are used. The mean estimate of surface time from 7 SLTDRs was 29% (CV=0.05). One SLTDR, with steel pressure transducer and zero-adjustments, that was retrieved from the whale, provided a particular long-record (83 days) of reliable high-resolution data. The surface time for this sample was 31%, when calculated as the sum of all depth readings at or above 2 m. The mean of 144 hourly depth readings during 06:00-18:00, and including dives above 3m, was 27.36% (CV=0.8) for 12 days overlapping with the usual timing of aerial surveys. Accurate estimation of smaller depth bins (e.g. 0-1 m) should, even with high resolution instruments, be used with caution when estimating availability bias.
独角鲸的数量估计通常通过视觉或摄影航空调查来完成。这两种方法的基本估计都是在地表探测鲸鱼,为了获得完全校正的丰度估计,需要根据任何给定时间可在地表探测到的鲸鱼比例对地表探测进行校正。浮出水面的时间或“可用性校正因子”是从装有潜水记录仪的鲸鱼身上获得的,该记录仪将不同深度间隔所用时间比例的级联信息传递给卫星,或从收集高频测量的完整潜水剖面的回收仪器中获得。来自卫星连接时间深度记录器(SLTDR)的深度直方图中合并的数据分为两类,其中那些使用盐水开关的信息校正零深度值的数据比那些从不校正零深度读数的仪器中收集的数据提供了更大且明显更准确的浮出时间。近表面压力值的错误检测可能是由于由温度敏感材料制成的压力传感器响应缓慢。AcousondeTM记录仪的高频采样记录了错误的地表探测,需要调整潜水剖面以获得真实的近地表值。潜水剖面和近地表值的任何重建显然都涉及一定程度的校正,为了开发航空测量的可用性校正因子,建议使用零调整SLTDR或TDR仪器的数据。7个SLTDR的表面时间平均估计值为29%(CV=0.05)。从鲸鱼身上取回的一个带有钢制压力传感器和零点调整的SLTDR提供了可靠高分辨率数据的特殊长记录(83天)。当计算为2米或2米以上的所有深度读数之和时,该样本的水面时间为31%。06:00-18:00期间,包括3米以上的潜水在内,144小时深度读数的平均值为27.36%(CV=0.8),与通常的空中调查时间重叠了12天。即使使用高分辨率仪器,在估计可用性偏差时,也应谨慎使用较小深度仓(如0-1 m)的精确估计。
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引用次数: 0
The Icelandic harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population: trends over 40 years (1980–2020) and current threats to the population. 冰岛海豹(Phoca vitulina)种群:40多年(1980-2020)的趋势和当前对种群的威胁。
Pub Date : 2022-12-20 DOI: 10.7557/3.6328
S. M. Granquist
Regular harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population censuses are necessary to monitor fluctuations in the population size and to inform seal management. In this paper, the status of the Icelandic harbour seal population is presented, along with trends in the population over a 40-year period. In total, 13 full aerial censuses were carried out during the moulting season (July-August) between 1980 and 2020. The most recent census from 2020 yielded an estimate of 10,319 (CI 95%= 6,733-13,906) animals, indicating that the population is 69.04% smaller than when systematic monitoring of the population commenced in 1980 (33,327 seals). The observed decrease puts the population on the national red list for threatened populations. Trend analyses indicate that most of the decline occurred during the first decade, when the population decreased about 50% concurrently with large human induced removals of harbour seals. After that point, the population decline slowed down but continued, and currently the population seems to fluctuate around a stable minimum level. The sensitive conservation status of the population underlines the need to assess and sustainably manage current threats to the population, including human induced removals, anthropogenic disturbance, and various environmental factors such as contaminants, climate change and fluctuation in prey availability. Furthermore, it is urgent to continue regular censuses and to increase monitoring of population demographic factors.
有必要定期进行港口海豹(Phoca vitulina)人口普查,以监测种群规模的波动,并为海豹管理提供信息。本文介绍了冰岛海狗种群的现状,以及40年来的种群趋势。在1980年至2020年的换羽季节(7月至8月),总共进行了13次全面的空中普查。2020年的最新人口普查估计有10319只(CI 95%=6733-13906)动物,表明该种群比1980年开始系统监测种群时(33327只海豹)减少了69.04%。观察到的数量减少使该种群被列入国家濒危种群红色名单。趋势分析表明,大部分下降发生在第一个十年,当时种群减少了约50%,同时人类大量清除了海狗。在那之后,人口下降速度放缓,但仍在继续,目前人口似乎在稳定的最低水平上波动。种群的敏感保护状况突出表明,需要评估和可持续地管理当前对种群的威胁,包括人为清除、人为干扰和各种环境因素,如污染物、气候变化和猎物可得性的波动。此外,迫切需要继续定期人口普查,并加强对人口统计因素的监测。
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引用次数: 0
Needles in an ocean haystack: using environmental DNA to study marine mammals in the North Atlantic 大海捞针:利用环境DNA研究北大西洋海洋哺乳动物
Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.7557/3.6482
D. Székely, Kristina M. Cammen, Morten Tange Olsen
Marine mammals in the North Atlantic have experienced severe depletions due to overexploitation. While some species and populations have now recovered, there are numerous other anthropogenic activities impacting their North Atlantic ecosystem. Studying marine mammals is often associated with logistical challenges, and many species have an elusive nature, resulting in substantial knowledge gaps on the distribution, abundance and diversity of marine mammals in the North Atlantic. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is an emerging tool in biodiversity monitoring and has successfully been demonstrated to complement traditional monitoring methods for a wide range of marine taxonomic groups. The promising potential of seawater eDNA is owe to advances within an array of molecular methods used to extract, detect and/or sequence the genetic material of marine organisms from a single seawater sample.  We present a literature review of eDNA studies of marine mammals and discuss the potential applications and practical challenges of eDNA in marine mammal research, management and conservation.  Environmental DNA has already been introduced to a wide range of applications within marine mammal science, from detection of endangered species to population genetic assessments. Furthermore, eDNA has the power to capture other biologically important species in the marine ecosystem and food web, which could facilitate insight into the spatiotemporal variation of different marine communities in a changing environment. With methodological and technological standardization, eDNA based approaches have a promising potential to be integrated into regular monitoring practices and management strategies.
北大西洋的海洋哺乳动物由于过度开发而经历了严重的枯竭。虽然一些物种和种群现在已经恢复,但还有许多其他人类活动影响着它们的北大西洋生态系统。研究海洋哺乳动物往往与后勤挑战有关,许多物种具有难以捉摸的性质,导致在北大西洋海洋哺乳动物的分布、丰度和多样性方面存在巨大的知识差距。环境DNA(eDNA)是生物多样性监测中的一种新兴工具,已成功证明可以补充各种海洋分类群的传统监测方法。海水eDNA的巨大潜力归功于一系列分子方法的进步,这些方法用于从单个海水样本中提取、检测和/或测序海洋生物的遗传物质。我们对海洋哺乳动物的eDNA研究进行了文献综述,并讨论了eDNA在海洋哺乳动物研究、管理和保护中的潜在应用和实际挑战。环境DNA已经被引入海洋哺乳动物科学的广泛应用,从濒危物种的检测到种群遗传评估。此外,eDNA有能力捕获海洋生态系统和食物网中其他生物重要物种,这有助于深入了解不同海洋群落在不断变化的环境中的时空变化。随着方法和技术的标准化,基于eDNA的方法很有可能被纳入定期监测做法和管理战略。
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引用次数: 1
Recent trends in temporal and geographical variation in blubber thickness of common Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata) in the Northeast Atlantic 东北大西洋普通小须鲸(Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata)鲸脂厚度的时空变化趋势
Pub Date : 2022-09-28 DOI: 10.7557/3.6308
H. Solvang, T. Haug, N. Øien
The common minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata) is a migratory species, and the summer period is generally characterized by intensive feeding and consequently seasonal fattening at high latitudes. The fat deposited is stored as energy reserves for overwintering at lower latitudes where feeding is supposed to be greatly reduced. It is therefore expected that their body condition on the summer feeding grounds will reflect foraging success during their most intensive feeding period and thus indicate how well the high latitude ecosystems can support the populations. During the commercial catch operations on feeding grounds in Norwegian waters, body condition data (blubber thickness and girth) have been collected from 13 937 common minke whales caught during the period 1993-2020. To investigate associations between body condition and area usage in minke whales, we applied three statistical approaches: regressions, canonical correlations, and spatiotemporal effect estimations. The analyses revealed a significant negative trend in blubber thickness from 1993 until 2015. After 2015, the trend was reversed, and blubber thickness values increased significantly. It has previously been suggested that there may be a link between the decreased minke whale blubber thickness and the abundance of the Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) stock which increased to a record high level between 2006 and 2013. Recruitment to the cod stock in more recent years has been low with a subsequent and continuous decrease in the total stock after 2013 to a current level which is presumably approximately 60% of the 2013 level. Interestingly, the observed common minke whale body condition was at its lowest in 2015, after which it has increased. This may support a connection between cod abundance and common minke whale body condition.
普通小须鲸(Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata)是一种迁徙物种,夏季通常以密集进食为特征,因此在高纬度地区季节性增肥。储存的脂肪作为能量储备储存在低纬度地区过冬,那里的摄食应该大大减少。因此,预计它们在夏季取食地的身体状况将反映它们在最密集的取食期的觅食成功,从而表明高纬度生态系统对种群的支持程度。在挪威水域饵料场的商业捕捞作业期间,收集了1993-2020年期间捕获的13937头普通小须鲸的身体状况数据(鲸脂厚度和周长)。为了研究小须鲸身体状况与面积使用之间的关系,我们采用了三种统计方法:回归、典型相关和时空效应估计。分析显示,从1993年到2015年,鲸脂厚度呈显著的负趋势。2015年后,这一趋势发生逆转,鲸脂厚度值显著增加。此前有人认为,小须鲸脂肪厚度的减少与东北北极鳕鱼(Gadus morhua)数量的增加可能存在联系,东北北极鳕鱼数量在2006年至2013年期间达到了创纪录的水平。近年来,鳕鱼的捕捞量一直很低,2013年之后,鳕鱼的总存量持续下降,目前的水平大概是2013年水平的60%左右。有趣的是,观察到的普通小须鲸身体状况在2015年处于最低水平,之后有所增加。这可能支持鳕鱼数量与普通小须鲸身体状况之间的联系。
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引用次数: 1
Pup production of Harp Seals in the Northwest Atlantic in 2017 during a time of ecosystem change 2017年生态系统变化期间西北大西洋海豹的幼犬产量
Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.7557/3.6214
G. Stenson, J. Gosselin, J. Lawson, A. Buren, P. Goulet, Shelley L. C. Lang, K. Nilssen, M. Hammill
Photographic and visual aerial surveys were conducted off Newfoundland and Labrador (”the Front”), and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (“Gulf”) in March 2017 to estimate pup production of Northwest Atlantic harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Traditionally, harp seals pup (whelp) in three general areas; the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence, and off the east coast of Newfoundland and Labrador. After extensive reconnaissance, four whelping areas were identified: one in each of the southern and northern Gulf, and two at the Front. We estimated a total pup production in 2017 of 746,500 (SE=89,900, CV=12%), the lowest since 1994. Most (96%) pups were born at the Front (714,600 pups, SE=89,700). Very few pups were born in the southern Gulf (18,300, SE=1,500) and no whelping concentrations were observed prior to March 5, approximately one week later than previously observed. This is far lower than the 2012 survey estimate of 115,500 (SE=15,100) for the same area. Pup production in the northern Gulf was also lower than in previous years, at 13,600 (SE=3,000). The timing of births in the southern Gulf was much later than normal in 2017, and unusually early pupping at the Front suggests that some females from the Gulf herd may have moved to the Front to whelp due to a lack of ice suitable for pupping (i.e., thin first year) in the Gulf. Harp seals whelp in large concentrations. While one large whelping concentration formed at the Front, approximately 15% of the pupping at the Front occurred in small, dispersed groups which formed later than observed in previous years. Given the unusual ice conditions, distribution of whelping seals, and timing of pupping, assessing the results of the 2017 surveys relative to other estimates of pup production in the Northwest Atlantic is challenging and indicates the ongoing difficulties of assessing a population that is being impacted by climate change.
2017年3月,在纽芬兰和拉布拉多(“前线”)以及圣劳伦斯湾(“海湾”)进行了摄影和视觉航空调查,以估计西北大西洋竖琴海豹(Pagophilus groenlandicus)的幼犬产量。传统上,竖琴海豹幼崽(幼崽)分为三个区域;圣劳伦斯湾南部、圣劳伦斯湾北部以及纽芬兰和拉布拉多东海岸。经过广泛的侦察,确定了四个海螺区:海湾南部和北部各一个,前线两个。我们估计2017年幼犬的总产量为746500只(SE=89900,CV=12%),为1994年以来的最低水平。大多数(96%)幼崽出生在前线(714600只幼崽,SE=89700)。在南部海湾出生的幼崽非常少(18300只,SE=1500只),在3月5日之前没有观察到幼崽的浓度,比之前观察到的晚了大约一周。这远低于同一地区2012年调查估计的115500人(SE=15100)。海湾北部的Pup产量也低于前几年,为13600只(SE=3000)。2017年,南部海湾的出生时间比正常情况要晚得多,在前线异常早期的幼崽表明,由于海湾缺乏适合幼崽的冰(即第一年很薄),一些海湾牛群的雌性可能已经转移到前线产崽。Harp海豹大量繁殖。虽然在前线形成了一个大的幼崽集中区,但大约15%的幼崽在前线出现在分散的小群体中,这些群体的形成时间比前几年晚。考虑到不寻常的冰况、幼海豹的分布和幼海豹繁殖的时间,评估2017年的调查结果相对于西北大西洋幼海豹产量的其他估计是具有挑战性的,这表明评估受气候变化影响的种群仍存在困难。
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