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Using Expected Geometric Values to Calculate the Cost of Interest in Hyper-inflationary Environments: the Case of Venezuela 用预期几何值计算恶性通货膨胀环境下的利息成本:以委内瑞拉为例
Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.3126/njiss.v2i2.31825
J. T. Query, Evaristo Diz Cruz
It is of vital importance to explore the relationship between pensions and inflationary levels because this forms a link between social policy and economic development in the context of Venezuela’s challenging economy and its impact on the development of pension systems. With such rampant inflation, companies must adjust the rates of salary increases to avoid a significant decrease in the purchasing power of income from defined benefit plans. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. Consequently, the cost of interest associated with the actuarial liability of the Benefit plans increases substantially in the next fiscal period to the actuarial valuation, sometimes compromising its sustainability over time. In order to minimize this problem, two scenarios for calculating the interest rate are proposed to smooth out this volatile effect; both are based on a geometric average with the expectation of working life or with the duration of the obligations. We are careful to use a reasonable interest rate that is not so high as to compromise the cash flow, resulting in skewed annual results of the companies. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. We formulate and actuarially evaluate two different scenarios, based on job expectations and Macaulay's duration, of the obligations that allow the sustainability of the plan in an environment of extremely high inflation. To illustrate the impact of the basic annual expenditure of the period, the results of an actuarial valuation of an actual Venezuelan company were utilized. Despite some companies adjusting their book reserves increasingly through a geometric progression, the amounts associated with the costs of interest would be huge in any such adjustment pattern. Therefore, we suggest adoption of one of the alternatives described in the research.
探讨养老金与通货膨胀水平之间的关系至关重要,因为在委内瑞拉具有挑战性的经济及其对养老金制度发展的影响的背景下,这形成了社会政策与经济发展之间的联系。面对如此猖獗的通货膨胀,公司必须调整加薪率,以避免固定收益计划收入的购买力大幅下降。我们的研究试图找到使用未来利率的平均几何利率表示为预期价值来贴现债务的可能性。因此,与福利计划的精算负债有关的利息成本在精算估值的下一个财政期间大幅增加,有时会损害其长期的可持续性。为了使这一问题最小化,提出了两种计算利率的方案来消除这种波动效应;两者都是根据工作寿命预期或义务期限的几何平均值计算的。我们小心地使用一个合理的利率,不会太高,以免影响现金流,导致公司的年度业绩扭曲。我们的研究试图找到使用未来利率的平均几何利率表示为预期价值来贴现债务的可能性。我们根据工作预期和麦考利的持续时间,制定并精算评估了两种不同的情景,以确保该计划在极高通胀环境下的可持续性。为了说明这一期间基本年度支出的影响,使用了委内瑞拉一家实际公司的精算估值结果。尽管一些公司越来越多地通过几何级数调整其账面储备,但在任何这种调整模式下,与利息成本相关的金额都将是巨大的。因此,我们建议采用研究中描述的替代方案之一。
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引用次数: 0
Illness, Healthcare, and Health Insurance: Socio-economic Perspective in Nepalese Context 疾病、保健和健康保险:尼泊尔背景下的社会经济观点
Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.3126/njiss.v2i2.31824
D. Acharya, Bishnu Prasad Wagle, Radha Bhattarai
The Government of Nepal has introduced a health insurance programme since 2016. The main essence of the program is to reduce the gap in the utilization of health services between poor and rich, to reduce the out-of pocket expenditure while receiving the healthcare services, and to protect the family from poverty due to catastrophic healthcare expenditure. Researchers review the policy, programme and existing practice Data from Health Insurance Board shows that the programme appears not so effective in many districts but it looks successful in some districts where private healthcare providers are existing as a referral hospital. It is still unanswered whether the HIP is going to boost industrialists in the name of basic rights, health equity and social justice. The paper studies socio-economic and political perspectives of healthcare and health insurance with reference to Nepal and concludes that the healthcare system needs to reform for real welfare, social justice, and citizens' access and right to healthcare.
尼泊尔政府自2016年以来推出了一项健康保险方案。该方案的主要内容是缩小穷人和富人在利用保健服务方面的差距,减少接受保健服务时的自付支出,并保护家庭不因灾难性的保健支出而陷入贫困。研究人员审查了政策、方案和现有做法。来自健康保险委员会的数据表明,该方案在许多地区似乎效果不佳,但在一些地区似乎很成功,因为那里有私人保健提供者作为转诊医院。HIP是否会以基本权利、健康公平和社会正义的名义促进实业家的发展,这个问题仍然没有答案。本文研究了医疗保健和医疗保险的社会经济和政治观点,参考尼泊尔,并得出结论,医疗保健系统需要改革真正的福利,社会正义,以及公民获得医疗保健的权利。
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引用次数: 1
Perception among the Employees of Bank towards the Bancassurance in Nepal 尼泊尔银行员工对银行保险的看法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.3126/njiss.v2i2.31830
Urmi Joshi
The study aims to explore the perception of employees working in banking industry and investigates the problems and prospects of bancassurance in Nepal. Quantitative data have been collected from 100 employees working in 20 commercial banks using structured questionnaire. Product design, customer awareness, brand name, distribution channel and awareness of retail banks are considered as independent variables whereas present status of bancassurance is taken as dependent variable in the study. Both descriptive and inferential statistical tools have been applied to analyse the data. The result reveals that there is a positive relation between product design and brand name with present status of bancassurance in Nepal. This means that better the products lead to success of Bancassurance. The results also reveal negative relationship between present status of Bancassurance and consumer awareness, awareness of retail banks and distribution channel. The study concludes that product design and brand name are the major factors affecting current bancassurance status whereas consumer awareness, awareness of retail banks and distribution channel do not affect on current status of bancassurance.
本研究旨在探讨在银行业工作的员工的看法,并调查尼泊尔银行保险的问题和前景。采用结构化问卷法对20家商业银行的100名员工进行了定量调查。本研究以产品设计、客户认知、品牌、分销渠道、零售银行认知为自变量,以银行保险现状为因变量。描述性和推断性统计工具都被用于分析数据。结果表明,产品设计和品牌名称与尼泊尔银行保险的现状呈正相关。这意味着更好的产品导致银行保险的成功。结果还揭示了银行保险现状与消费者意识、零售银行意识和分销渠道之间的负相关关系。研究发现,产品设计和品牌名称是影响银行保险现状的主要因素,而消费者意识、零售银行意识和分销渠道对银行保险现状的影响不大。
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引用次数: 1
Relationship between trading volume, stock return and return volatility: A case of Nepalese insurance companies 交易量、股票收益与收益波动的关系——以尼泊尔保险公司为例
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.3126/njiss.v2i2.31827
N. Acharya, S. Pradhan
This study examines the factors affecting the share price of Nepalese non-life insurance companies. The knowledge of the factors and their possible impact on share prices is highly appreciable as it would help investors make wise investment decisions and enable firms to enhance their market value. This study is based on secondary data of 15 non-life insurance companies which are listed in Nepal stock exchange. The study covers seven years period from the fiscal year 2011/12 to 2017/18. The result shows that firm size is positively related to market price of share and price earnings ratio. It indicates that larger firm size leads to increase in market price of share and price earnings ratio. However, the study shows that inflation is negatively related to market price of share and price earnings ratio. The study also shows that dividend per share and return on assets are negatively related to the market price of share and price earnings ratio. Similarly, earnings per share have negative relationship with market price of share and price earnings ratio. The study concludes that the increase in return on assets and earnings per shares do not explain the variation in stock price in Nepalese non-life insurance companies. Nepal is one of the emerging economy; the determinants identified may provide knowledge to the potential investors about the key factors affecting share prices in the country and accordingly assist them in optimizing their investment strategy.
本研究探讨尼泊尔非寿险公司股价的影响因素。了解这些因素及其对股价可能产生的影响是非常值得赞赏的,因为它将帮助投资者做出明智的投资决策,并使公司能够提高其市场价值。本研究基于尼泊尔证券交易所上市的15家非寿险公司的二手数据。该研究涵盖了从2011/12财年到2017/18财年的7年时间。结果表明,企业规模与股票市场价格和市盈率呈正相关。结果表明,企业规模越大,股票市场价格越高,市盈率越高。然而,研究表明,通货膨胀与股票市场价格和市盈率呈负相关。研究还表明,每股股息和资产收益率与股票市场价格和市盈率呈负相关。同样,每股收益与股票市场价格和市盈率呈负相关。研究得出结论,资产收益率和每股收益的增加并不能解释尼泊尔非寿险公司股价的变化。尼泊尔是新兴经济体之一;确定的决定因素可以为潜在投资者提供有关影响该国股价的关键因素的知识,并相应地帮助他们优化其投资策略。
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引用次数: 1
Social Health Security Program in Nepal: Opportunities and Challenges 尼泊尔社会健康保障方案:机遇与挑战
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.3126/njiss.v2i2.31829
Ruku Panday
The study aims to assess the opportunities and challenges of the health insurance program carried out by Health Insurance Board as a social insurance program by Government of Nepal. Data have been collected through in-depth interview with 21 persons including the social health insurance policyholders, and non-policyholders who are inhabitants of Rantanagar Municipality- 6, and Bharatapur Metropolitan City- 10 of Chitwan district. Besides, experts in insurance and senior managers of insurance companies were also interviewed. It has followed the interpretive-naturalistic approach with the method of interviewing. As per the opinion of respondents HIP is effective in cost reduction of rich, and access to health service for poor. In government hospitals policyholders suffer from prolonging waiting, lack of facilities and experts and in private hospitals there is undue expenditure and discrimination in expert service. Even though the objective of the social health program is established social justice, cash-payer and insurance-payers are discriminated; corroborating the nature of neoliberal society. There are still uninsured persons because of ignorance, lack of premium, and distrust of HI service. The study suggests that HI service should be delivered through non-profit hospitals, the highest quality without discrimination of cashpayer and insurance-payer, and prolonged waiting.
这项研究的目的是评估由健康保险局作为尼泊尔政府的社会保险方案执行的健康保险方案的机遇和挑战。通过对21人的深入访谈收集了数据,其中包括社会健康保险投保人和非投保人,他们是兰塔纳格市(6人)和奇旺区巴拉塔普尔市(10人)的居民。此外,还采访了保险专家和保险公司的高级管理人员。它遵循了解释-自然主义的方法,采用了访谈的方法。根据答复者的意见,HIP有效地降低了富人的费用,并使穷人获得保健服务。在政府医院,保单持有人面临等待时间过长、缺乏设施和专家的问题,而在私立医院,专家服务方面存在不当支出和歧视。尽管社会保健方案的目标是确立社会正义,但现金支付者和保险支付者受到歧视;确证了新自由主义社会的本质。由于无知、缺乏保险费和对HI服务的不信任,仍然有未参保的人。研究建议,医疗保健服务应通过非营利性医院提供,不歧视现金支付者和保险支付者,并延长等待时间。
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引用次数: 1
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Nepalese Journal of Insurance and Social Security
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