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Bioelectricity in Malaysia: Economic Feasibility, Environmental and Deforestation Implications 马来西亚的生物电:经济可行性、环境和毁林影响
Pub Date : 2019-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3359465
K. Szulczyk, Muhammad A. Cheema, R. Cullen, A. Khan
We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.
我们调查了马来西亚生物质生物发电的经济可行性及其对温室气体(GHG)排放和储存、农产品价格、农业就业和森林砍伐的影响。为此,我们开发了一个局部均衡模型,以2015年至2065年的5年增量预测农产品价格、产量、进口、出口、国内消费和土地利用。我们的研究结果表明,到2030年,生物质发电可以提供马来西亚36.5%的电力,是2016年生物质电力供应的16倍。增加生物质发电将大大减少温室气体排放,并将帮助马来西亚履行其在《巴黎协定》中的承诺,即在2030年之前将温室气体排放量减少45%。我们的模型表明,生物质发电产生了对废弃生物质的衍生需求,扩大了油棕种植园的面积。这种扩张降低了农产品价格,促进了农业就业,并导致一些森林砍伐,因为土地所有者清除雨林种植油棕树。然而,森林砍伐不会增加温室气体排放,因为生物电的温室气体收益大大超过森林砍伐造成的温室气体损失。
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引用次数: 11
Subsidize Farmers or the Bioenergy Producer? The Design of a Government Subsidy Program for a Bioenergy Supply Chain 补贴农民还是生物能源生产商?生物能源供应链的政府补贴方案设计
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3344970
Fei Ye, Zigong Cai, Ying‐ju Chen, Yina Li, G. Hou
The success of the bioenergy industry will depend, in part, on enough feedstock being grown. To increase the reliability of the supply of bioenergy, a government can offer two types of subsidy program: a farmer subsidy program (FSP) and a bioenergy producer subsidy program (PSP). We develop models to analyze the optimal subsidy program by capturing the strategic interactions between the government, the bioenergy producer, and farmers. The models incorporate the government’s subsidy budget constraint, the environmental benefits from the use of bioenergy, the farmer’s risk aversion and land capacity constraint, as well as the random yield of the feedstock. The findings reveal that both FSP and PSP are effective as long as the farmers’ land capacity exceeds a threshold. If both the government’s subsidy budget and land capacity are sufficiently large, PSP outperforms FSP; if only the subsidy budget is limited, FSP is better; if only land capacity is limited, FSP and PSP are equivalent. Counterintuitively, we find that PSP always benefits farmers more, while FSP can benefit the bioenergy producer more in some scenarios. Also, we find that FSP can better mitigate risk than PSP when the yield uncertainty is high. Lastly, insights for policy makers to promote bioenergy development are highlighted.
生物能源产业的成功将部分取决于种植足够的原料。为了提高生物能源供应的可靠性,政府可以提供两种类型的补贴计划:农民补贴计划(FSP)和生物能源生产商补贴计划(PSP)。通过捕捉政府、生物能源生产商和农民之间的战略互动,我们开发了模型来分析最优补贴计划。模型考虑了政府补贴预算约束、生物能源使用带来的环境效益、农民的风险规避和土地容量约束以及原料的随机产量。研究结果表明,只要农民的土地容量超过一定阈值,FSP和PSP都是有效的。如果政府补贴预算和土地容量都足够大,PSP优于FSP;如果补贴预算有限,FSP更好;在土地容量有限的情况下,土地保障计划和土地保障计划是相等的。与直觉相反,我们发现在某些情况下,PSP对农民更有利,而FSP对生物能源生产商更有利。在收益不确定性较大的情况下,FSP比PSP更能有效地降低风险。最后,强调了政策制定者促进生物能源发展的见解。
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引用次数: 8
Technical Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Potentials of Biochar Soil Incorporation in Germany 德国生物炭土壤技术温室气体减排潜力
Pub Date : 2014-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2487765
I. Teichmann
Biochar is a carbon-rich solid obtained from the heating of biomass in the (near) absence of oxygen in a process called pyrolysis. Its deployment in soils is increasingly discussed as a promising means to sequester carbon in soils and, thus, to help mitigate climate change. For a wide range of feedstocks and scenarios and against the baseline of conventional feedstock management, we calculate the technical greenhouse-gas mitigation potentials of slow-pyrolysis biochar in 2015, 2030 and 2050 when the biochar is incorporated into agricultural soils in Germany and when the by-products from biochar production – pyrolysis oils and gases – are used as renewable sources of energy. Covering the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, our analysis reveals that biochar allows for an annual technical greenhouse-gas mitigation potential in Germany in the range of 2.8-10.2 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalents by 2030 and 2.9-10.6 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalents by 2050. This corresponds to approximately 0.4-1.5% and 0.3-1.1% of the respective German greenhouse-gas reduction targets in 2030 and 2050.
生物炭是一种富含碳的固体,通过热解过程在(几乎)缺氧的情况下对生物质进行加热而获得。人们越来越多地讨论它在土壤中的应用,认为它是一种有希望的土壤固碳手段,从而有助于减缓气候变化。针对广泛的原料和情景,并针对传统原料管理的基线,我们计算了2015年、2030年和2050年慢热解生物炭在德国被纳入农业土壤以及生物炭生产的副产品——热解油和气体——被用作可再生能源时的技术温室气体减排潜力。涵盖温室气体二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮,我们的分析显示,到2030年,德国每年的技术温室气体减排潜力为280 - 1020万吨二氧化碳当量,到2050年为290 - 1060万吨二氧化碳当量。这相当于德国各自2030年和2050年温室气体减排目标的约0.4-1.5%和0.3-1.1%。
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引用次数: 7
The Power of Biomass: Experts Disclose the Potential for Success of Bioenergy Technologies 生物质能的力量:专家揭示生物能源技术成功的潜力
Pub Date : 2013-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2233964
G. Fiorese, M. Catenacci, V. Bosetti, Elena Verdolini
This paper focuses on technologies which use thermo-chemical or biochemical processes to convert biomass into electricity. We present the results from an expert elicitation exercise involving sixteen leading experts coming from different EU Member States. Aim of the elicitation was to assess the potential cost reduction of RD&D (research, development and demonstration) efforts and to identify barriers to the diffusion of these technologies. The research sheds light on the future potential of bioenergy technologies both in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and non-OECD countries. The results we present are an important input both for the integrated assessment modeling community and for policy makers who draft public RD&D strategies.
本文的重点是利用热化学或生化过程将生物质转化为电能的技术。我们介绍了来自不同欧盟成员国的16位主要专家参与的专家征集活动的结果。征求意见的目的是评估研究和发展(研究、发展和示范)努力的潜在成本降低,并查明传播这些技术的障碍。这项研究揭示了生物能源技术在经济合作与发展组织和非经济合作与发展组织国家的未来潜力。我们提出的结果对于综合评估建模社区和起草公共研发战略的政策制定者都是重要的输入。
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引用次数: 44
Biofuels Policy in Europe Under the Directive 2003/30: An Analysis of Goals, Hindrances, Instruments and Effects 2003/30指令下的欧洲生物燃料政策:目标、障碍、工具和效果分析
Pub Date : 2010-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1618317
A. Ninni, Pietro Lanzini
Up to 2008/2009, biofuels were considered one of the best alternatives to oil consumption in a captive market like transports, being one of the pillars of the 20-20-20 initiative in Europe. Improvement of security of supply through partial substitution of imported oil; reduction of GHGs emissions; improvement of income and employment in the agricultural and rural sectors were the main drivers of the promotion of biofuels in Europe, as well as in the United States and in Brazil. In the European Union biofuels policy was supported through Directive 2003/30. However its effects proved to be disappointing: the consumption of biofuels was expected by the Directive to account for 5.75% share of road fuels in 2010 in the European MSs, but it came early clear that such a target could not be met. Above all, consensus about biofuels decreased sharply when their ability to strongly decrease overall GHGs emissions was questioned, and when they were blamed of being the main responsible of the 2007-2008 food price increase. Finally, a new Directive was approved on April 23rd, 2009, including the request of various certifications to prove the sustainability of biofuels. The paper deals deeply with the biofuel experience in Europe, providing a general analysis of the 2003/30 Directive. It includes an evaluation of the difficulties met in satisfying the requested targets, an assessment of the MSs policies to support biofuels, and a discussion about the main features of the (failed) birth of a new industry.
直到2008/2009年,生物燃料被认为是交通运输等垄断市场中石油消费的最佳替代品之一,是欧洲20-20-20倡议的支柱之一。通过部分替代进口石油改善供应安全;减少温室气体排放;农业和农村部门收入和就业的改善是欧洲以及美国和巴西推广生物燃料的主要推动力。在欧盟,生物燃料政策得到了2003/30号指令的支持。然而,它的效果被证明是令人失望的:根据指令,生物燃料的消费量预计在2010年占欧洲MSs道路燃料的5.75%,但很明显,这样的目标无法实现。最重要的是,当生物燃料大幅减少温室气体排放的能力受到质疑,当生物燃料被指责为2007-2008年食品价格上涨的主要原因时,人们对生物燃料的共识急剧下降。最后,2009年4月23日通过了一项新指令,其中包括要求提供各种证明生物燃料可持续性的认证。本文深入探讨了欧洲的生物燃料经验,对2003/30指令进行了总体分析。它包括对实现所要求的目标所遇到的困难的评估,对支持生物燃料的MSs政策的评估,以及对新产业(失败的)诞生的主要特征的讨论。
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引用次数: 1
Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the Us Ethanol Mandate 确定农产品的供需弹性:对美国乙醇授权的影响
Pub Date : 2010-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.103.6.2265
M. Roberts, W. Schlenker
We present a new framework to identify demand and supply elasticities of agricultural commodities using yield shocks - deviations from a time trend of output per area, which are predominantly caused by weather fluctuations. Demand is identified using current-period shocks that give rise to exogenous shifts in supply. Supply is identified using past shocks, which affect expected future prices through inventory accretion or depletion. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of ethanol subsidies and mandates on world food commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus. The current US ethanol mandate requires that about 5 percent of world caloric production from corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans be used for ethanol generation. As a result, world food prices are predicted to increase by about 30 percent and global consumer surplus from food consumption is predicted to decrease by 155 billion dollars annually. If a third of the biofuel calories are recycled as feed stock for livestock, the predicted price increase scales back to 20 percent. While commodity demand is extremely inelastic, price response is muted by a significant supply response that is obscured if futures prices are not instrumented. The resulting expansion of agricultural growing area potentially offsets the CO2 emission benefits from biofuels.
我们提出了一个新的框架,利用产量冲击来确定农产品的需求和供应弹性,产量冲击是指与单位面积产量的时间趋势的偏差,主要由天气波动引起。需求是通过引起供给外生变化的当期冲击来确定的。供应是通过过去的冲击来确定的,这些冲击通过库存的增加或消耗来影响预期的未来价格。我们使用我们估计的弹性来评估乙醇补贴和规定对世界粮食商品价格、数量和粮食消费者剩余的影响。目前,美国的乙醇法规要求将全球玉米、小麦、大米和大豆产生的热量的5%用于乙醇生产。因此,世界粮食价格预计将上涨30%左右,全球粮食消费的消费者剩余预计每年将减少1550亿美元。如果三分之一的生物燃料热量被回收利用作为牲畜饲料,预计价格上涨幅度将回落至20%。尽管大宗商品需求极度缺乏弹性,但如果不考虑期货价格,价格反应就会被显著的供应反应所掩盖。由此导致的农业种植面积的扩大可能抵消生物燃料带来的二氧化碳排放效益。
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引用次数: 427
Review of Integrated Ecological-Economic Analyses for Bioenergy Plants Under Climate Change at Local Scale 气候变化局部尺度下生物能源植物生态经济综合分析综述
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2777987
Trung-Thanh Nguyen, J. Tenhunen
The authors aim to provide here an opinion on the state‐of‐the‐art of integrated ecological‐economic assessments of bioenergy under climate change, as well as the challenges along with their implications faced in planning adaptation at local scale.
作者的目的是就气候变化下生物能源综合生态经济评估的现状,以及在地方范围内规划适应所面临的挑战及其影响提供意见。
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引用次数: 4
Innovative Plant for the Production of Microalgaes 生产微藻的创新工厂
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.38177/ajast.2020.4318
Farné Stefano
It is strongly felt the need to replace fossil fuels with other renewable and more compatible with the environment. The spinneret of algal crops is producing different solutions ("open ponds", tubular, bioreactors in greenhouses, etc.). The aim is to obtain concentrations of dry substance such as to justify the high costs of extraction. Another limitation suffered by the actual plants, derives from the choice to move the algal mass (process characterized by a high energy consumption), with actions necessary to keep it in suspension as well as to move it, to exchange its positioning in order to bring it to be conditioned by the light (exhausting its effectiveness after the first 0.2-0.3 m of algal mass depth, or even less if thicker and when it would need more light for its exponential growth). In particular, it is not possible to bring a specific radiation spectrum, in a pervasive and deep way, with a drastic cost reduction for the mechanical movement of the culture medium. A limitation derives also from the possibility of biological and chemical contamination from the environment, because the algal mass is in a large contact with the environment itself (e.g. the "open ponds" situations) and it is heavily exposed to the prevalent thermal cycles (often not suitable to the processes of growth) inside it. Some problems are often encountered even in the phase of collection and selection of the algal mass to be forwarded to the following processes, that proceeds through the massive processing of large volumes (by filtration and concentration) that, due to previous limitations (contamination and uncertain conditions of growth), remain at low concentrations. The purpose of this article is to present the PBRC (Photo Bio Reactor Continuous) plant, subject of an Italian patent, for the cultivation of microalgae, from which to extract an oleic fraction, which can be destined for production of biofuels, and a protein fraction, which can be destined for use in the chemical, agri-food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic sectors.
人们强烈地感到有必要用其他可再生和更符合环境的燃料来代替化石燃料。藻类作物的喷丝器正在产生不同的解决方案(“开放式池塘”、管状、温室生物反应器等)。其目的是获得干燥物质的浓度,以证明提取的高成本是合理的。实际植物所遭受的另一个限制来自于移动藻团的选择(以高能量消耗为特征的过程),采取必要的行动来保持藻团的悬浮和移动,交换其位置以使其受到光的调节(在藻团深度的第一个0.2-0.3米之后耗尽其效力,如果更厚,甚至更少,当它需要更多的光来进行指数增长时)。特别是,不可能以普遍和深入的方式带来特定的辐射光谱,从而大幅降低培养基机械运动的成本。由于藻群与环境本身有很大的接触(例如“开放池塘”的情况),并且它严重暴露于环境内部普遍的热循环(通常不适合生长过程),因此环境可能会造成生物和化学污染,这也是限制因素之一。甚至在收集和选择藻类的阶段也经常遇到一些问题,这些藻类将被转发到以下过程中,通过大量处理(通过过滤和浓缩)进行,由于先前的限制(污染和不确定的生长条件),仍然保持在低浓度。本文的目的是介绍PBRC(光生物反应器连续)工厂,该工厂是意大利专利的主题,用于培养微藻,从中提取可用于生产生物燃料的油类部分,以及可用于化学,农业食品,制药和化妆品部门的蛋白质部分。
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引用次数: 0
Torn between Regional Supply and Globalisation: Austria's Primary Biomass Footprint for Energy in Comparison to Food and Material 在区域供应和全球化之间的撕裂:奥地利的主要生物质能源足迹与食品和材料的比较
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3706649
Gerald Kalt, L. Kaufmann, Kastner Thomas, F. Krausmann
Global biomass trade for energy has risen sharply in recent decades, especially with regard to refined biofuels. This development was accompanied by increasing concerns about adverse environmental impacts in exporting countries. Criticism of the EU’s bioenergy policies is often connected to international trade, for example controversies surrounding direct and indirect land-use change, or regarding the carbon balance of wood pellets being imported as substitute for coal. In Austria, there is strong public support for bioenergy from domestic sources, while biomass imports are met with scepticism. Such preference for regional supply is also prevalent for food and biomass for material, where consumers tend to consider high degrees of national self-sufficiency as an indication that domestic supply predominates. We here investigate where biomass products and biofuels consumed in Austria actually originate from, and whether the import share of Austria’s bioenergy sector significantly differs from that of nutrition and material applications. We determine the source countries of primary biomass utilized for energy, food and material based on material flow analyses, process chain modelling and algorithms tracing imported biomass to original source regions. We find that globalized supply chains undermine efforts for regional supply regardless of the type of use. Still, biomass consumed for energy as well as food and material primarily originates from Austria and its neighbouring countries. Certain bioenergy carriers have relatively large primary biomass footprints in more distant countries and overseas (mainly oil crop-based biofuels) but overall, biomass for energy is more regional than food and material products.
近几十年来,全球生物质能源贸易急剧上升,尤其是精炼生物燃料。伴随这一发展而来的是对出口国不利环境影响的日益关注。对欧盟生物能源政策的批评通常与国际贸易有关,例如围绕直接和间接土地利用变化的争议,或者关于进口木屑颗粒作为煤炭替代品的碳平衡。在奥地利,公众强烈支持国内的生物能源,而生物质能进口则受到怀疑。这种对区域供应的偏好在粮食和材料的生物质方面也很普遍,消费者倾向于认为国家高度自给自足是国内供应占主导地位的迹象。我们在这里调查了奥地利消费的生物质产品和生物燃料的实际来源,以及奥地利生物能源部门的进口份额是否与营养和材料应用的进口份额显著不同。我们根据物料流分析、过程链建模和将进口生物质追踪到原始来源国的算法,确定了用于能源、食品和材料的初级生物质的来源国。我们发现,无论使用何种类型,全球化供应链都破坏了区域供应的努力。尽管如此,用于能源以及食品和材料的生物质主要来自奥地利及其邻国。某些生物能源载体在较遥远的国家和海外拥有相对较大的初级生物质足迹(主要是基于油料作物的生物燃料),但总体而言,生物质能源比粮食和材料产品更具区域性。
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引用次数: 0
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SRPN: Biofuels (Topic)
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