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Proceedings Title: Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Tutorial: Illusion of capacity — Challenge of incorporating the complexity of FAB capacity (tool deployment & operating curve) into central planning for firms with substantial non-fab complexity 教程:产能幻觉-将FAB产能的复杂性(工具部署和运行曲线)纳入具有大量非晶圆厂复杂性的公司的中央计划的挑战
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465207
K. Fordyce, Jonathan Fournier, R. Milne, Harpal Singh
Since the early 1990s, organizations have focused on making smarter decisions in their integrated supply chain central planning, but the representation of capacity and cycle time has remained static and linear in contrast to its complex nature. This includes central planning for firms with semiconductor fabrication facilities (FABS) as a component of a complex demand supply network(DSN) where much of the complexity is non-FAB. Developing more intelligent solutions for capacity in central planning within computational and process limitations is a critical challenge. For DSNs with FABS, twin challenges are tool deployment and the operating curve. Many in the FAB community are aware of these complexities; options proposed and some implemented within “aggregate FAB planning,” rarely within central planning. This tutorial reviews the current state of central planning with respect to capacity and cycle time, outlines the challenges these complexities place on central planning structures, and indicates possible solutions.
自20世纪90年代初以来,组织一直专注于在其集成的供应链中央计划中做出更明智的决策,但与其复杂的性质相比,产能和周期时间的表示一直保持静态和线性。这包括对拥有半导体制造设施(fab)作为复杂需求供应网络(DSN)组成部分的公司进行中央规划,其中大部分复杂性都是非fab的。在计算和流程限制的情况下,为中央规划能力开发更智能的解决方案是一项关键挑战。对于带有fab的dsn,工具部署和操作曲线是双重挑战。FAB社区中的许多人都意识到了这些复杂性;在“聚合FAB规划”中提出和实施的选项,很少在中央规划中实施。本教程回顾了中央计划在容量和周期时间方面的现状,概述了这些复杂性给中央计划结构带来的挑战,并指出了可能的解决方案。
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引用次数: 4
GPS-based framework towards more realistic and real-time construction equipment operation simulation 基于gps的框架朝着更加真实、实时的施工设备操作模拟方向发展
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465159
Nipesh Pradhananga, J. Teizer
This paper presents an automated GPS-based method for assessing construction equipment operations productivity. The literature revealed several shortcomings in simulation of construction equipment, for example, the availability of realistic data that supports a simulation framework, and identified the need for integrating real-time field data into simulations. Commercially available GPS-based data logging technology was then evaluated. Analysis methods and rules for monitoring productivity were also discussed. A software interface was created that allowed to analyze and visualize several important parameters towards creating more realistic simulation models. The experimental results showed a productivity assessment method by collecting spatio-temporal data using GPS data logging technology, applied to construction equipment operations, and finally identified and tracked productivity and safety based information for job site layout decision making. This research aids construction project managers in decision making for planning work tasks, hazard identification, and worker training by providing realistic and real-time project equipment operation information.
本文提出了一种基于gps的自动化施工设备作业生产率评估方法。文献揭示了施工设备模拟的几个缺点,例如,支持模拟框架的实际数据的可用性,并确定了将实时现场数据集成到模拟中的必要性。然后对商用gps数据记录技术进行了评估。讨论了生产率监测的分析方法和规则。创建了一个软件界面,允许分析和可视化几个重要参数,以创建更逼真的仿真模型。实验结果表明,利用GPS数据记录技术采集时空数据,将生产力评估方法应用于施工设备作业,最终识别和跟踪基于生产力和安全的信息,为作业现场布局决策提供依据。本研究通过提供真实、实时的工程设备运行信息,帮助建设项目管理者在规划工作任务、危险识别和工人培训等方面进行决策。
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引用次数: 5
Sensitivity analysis of an ICU simulation model ICU仿真模型的敏感性分析
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465121
T. Bountourelis, David J. Eckman, K. L. Luangkesorn, A. Schaefer, Spencer G. Nabors, G. Clermont
The modeling and simulation of inpatient healthcare systems comprising of multiple interconnected units of monitored care is a challenging task given the nature of clinical practices and procedures that regulate patient flow. Therefore, any related study on the properties of patient flow should (i) explicitly consider the modeling of patient movement rules in face of congestion, and (ii) examine the sensitivity of simulation output, expressed by patient delays and diversions, over different patient movement modeling approaches. In this work, we use a high fidelity simulation model of a tertiary facility that can incorporate complex patient movement rules to investigate the challenges inherent in its employment for resource allocation tasks.
考虑到临床实践和程序的性质,住院医疗保健系统的建模和模拟是一项具有挑战性的任务,该系统由多个相互关联的监测护理单元组成。因此,任何关于患者流特性的相关研究都应该(i)明确考虑面对拥塞时患者运动规则的建模,以及(ii)检查不同患者运动建模方法中以患者延迟和转移表示的仿真输出的敏感性。在这项工作中,我们使用了一个高保真的三级设施模拟模型,该模型可以结合复杂的患者运动规则来研究其在资源分配任务中所固有的挑战。
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引用次数: 6
Simulation and optimization of robot driven production systems for peak-load reduction 机器人驱动生产系统的减峰仿真与优化
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465002
S. Lorenz, Matthias Hesse, A. Fischer
One way to improve the energy efficiency in manufacturing is the use of energy-sensitive methods in production planning. So far, the energy consumption behavior of production facilities has not been investigated in great detail. Estimates are typically obtained by connected wattage values and concurrency factors. We present a new methodology to simulate and optimize complex robot driven production systems with special emphasis on energy aspects. In particular, we show how to translate the process descriptions and energy consumption profiles into a discrete-event-based simulation model and illustrate this with an example of a car body shop facility. In order to minimize the peak-load we set up an optimization model that is based on periodic time-expanded networks. A solution of this model corresponds to a process sequence for the robots that prescribes relative starting times via additional wait intervals. This sequence is then reinserted into the simulation model to validate the improvement.
提高制造业能源效率的一种方法是在生产计划中使用能源敏感方法。到目前为止,还没有对生产设施的能耗行为进行详细的研究。估计通常由连接的瓦数值和并发因素获得。我们提出了一种新的方法来模拟和优化复杂的机器人驱动的生产系统,特别强调能源方面。特别是,我们展示了如何将过程描述和能耗概况转换为基于离散事件的仿真模型,并通过车身车间设施的示例来说明这一点。为了使峰值负荷最小化,我们建立了一个基于周期时间扩展网络的优化模型。该模型的解对应于机器人的过程序列,该过程序列通过额外的等待间隔规定了相对启动时间。然后将该序列重新插入到仿真模型中以验证改进。
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引用次数: 13
Operations analysis and appointment scheduling for an outpatient chemotherapy department 门诊化疗科室的手术分析与预约安排
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6464990
M. Yokouchi, Setsuko Aoki, Haixia Sang, R. Zhao, S. Takakuwa
With current increasing demands for outpatient medical services, healthcare providers have had to analyze methods for providing safety and quality care services under constrained resources. A long waiting-time has a severe impact not only on the patients' satisfaction but also on the physical conditions of the patients, who receive invasive treatment in ambulatory care facilities. Patients treated with outpatient chemotherapy have been rapidly increasing over the last decade in Japan. In this context, a discrete event simulation model for exploring appointment scheduling in an outpatient chemotherapy department of a general hospital was developed. An efficient schedule was identified that held bed utilization to a tolerance level by restraining the excess waiting-time in a clinical setting. It is suggested that a scheduling method based on the infusion time be available for the outpatient chemotherapy department.
随着目前对门诊医疗服务的需求不断增加,医疗保健提供者不得不分析在资源有限的情况下提供安全和优质护理服务的方法。长时间的等待不仅严重影响患者的满意度,而且严重影响患者在门诊接受有创治疗的身体状况。在过去十年中,日本接受门诊化疗的患者数量迅速增加。在此背景下,建立了一个离散事件模拟模型,用于探索综合医院门诊化疗部门的预约安排。我们确定了一个有效的时间表,通过限制临床环境中多余的等待时间,将床位利用率控制在一个可容忍的水平。建议化疗门诊可采用基于输液时间的输液调度方法。
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引用次数: 34
An integrated approach for the validation of emergence in component-based simulation models 基于组件的仿真模型中突现验证的集成方法
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465059
Claudia Szabo, Y. M. Teo
Emergent properties are becoming increasingly important as systems grow in size and complexity. Despite recent research interest in understanding emergent behavior, practical approaches remain a key challenge. This paper proposes an integrated approach for the identification of emergence with two perspectives. A post-mortem emergence analysis requires a-priori knowledge about emergence and can identify the causes of emergent behavior. In contrast, a live analysis, in which emergence is identified as it happens, does not require prior knowledge and relies on a more rigorous definition of individual model components in terms of what they achieve, rather than how. Our proposed approach integrates reconstructability analysis in the validation of emergence included in our proposed component-based model development life-cycle.
随着系统规模和复杂性的增长,涌现属性变得越来越重要。尽管最近的研究对理解紧急行为很感兴趣,但实际方法仍然是一个关键的挑战。本文从两个角度提出了一种识别突现的综合方法。死后应急分析需要先验的应急知识,并能确定应急行为的原因。相比之下,一个实时的分析,在它发生的时候识别出突现,不需要先验知识,并且依赖于对单个模型组件的更严格的定义,根据它们实现了什么,而不是如何实现。我们提出的方法集成了可重构性分析,包括在我们提出的基于组件的模型开发生命周期中的出现验证。
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引用次数: 17
Combining metamodel techniques and Bayesian selection procedures to derive computationally efficient simulation-based optimization algorithms 结合元模型技术和贝叶斯选择程序,推导出计算效率高的基于仿真的优化算法
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465111
C. Osorio, H. Bidkhori
This paper presents a simulation-based optimization (SO) algorithm for nonlinear problems with general constraints and computationally expensive evaluation of objective functions. It focuses on metamodel techniques. This paper proposes an SO technique that also uses metamodel information when testing the improvement of the proposed points. We use a Bayesian framework, where the parameters of the prior distributions are estimated based on probabilistic metamodel information. In order to derive an SO algorithm that achieves a good trade-off between detail, realism and computational efficiency, the metamodel combines information from a high-resolution simulator with information from a lower-resolution yet computationally efficient analytical differentiable network model. In this paper, we use the probabilistic information from the queueing model to estimate the parameters of the prior distributions. We evaluate the performance of this SO algorithm by addressing an urban traffic management problem using a detailed microscopic traffic simulator of the Swiss city of Lausanne.
本文提出了一种基于仿真的优化算法,用于求解具有一般约束条件且目标函数求值计算量大的非线性问题。它侧重于元模型技术。本文提出了一种SO技术,该技术在测试建议点的改进时也使用元模型信息。我们使用贝叶斯框架,其中先验分布的参数是基于概率元模型信息估计的。为了推导出一种在细节、真实感和计算效率之间取得良好平衡的SO算法,该元模型将来自高分辨率模拟器的信息与来自低分辨率但计算效率高的解析可微网络模型的信息相结合。本文利用排队模型的概率信息来估计先验分布的参数。我们通过使用瑞士洛桑市的详细微观交通模拟器解决城市交通管理问题来评估该SO算法的性能。
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引用次数: 5
User understanding of cognitive processes in simulation: A tool for exploring and modifying 模拟中用户对认知过程的理解:一种探索和修改的工具
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465046
David Scerri, Sarah L. Hickmott, L. Padgham
Agent based simulations often model humans and increasingly it is necessary to do this at an appropriate level of complexity. It has been suggested that the Belief Desire Intention (BDI) paradigm is suitable for modeling the cognitive processes of agents representing (some of) the humans in an agent based modeling simulation. This approach models agents as having goals, and reacting to events, with high level plans, or plan types, that are gradually refined as situations unfold. This is an intuitive approach for modeling human cognitive processes. However, it is important that users can understand, verify and even contribute to the model being used. We describe a tool that can be used to explore, understand and modify, the BDI model of an agent's cognitive processes within a simulation. The tool is interactive and allows users to explore options available (and not available) at a particular agent decision point.
基于智能体的模拟经常模拟人类,并且越来越有必要在适当的复杂程度上进行模拟。在基于智能体的建模仿真中,信念-欲望-意图(BDI)范式适用于对代表(部分)人类的智能体的认知过程进行建模。这种方法将代理建模为具有目标,并对事件做出反应,具有高级计划或计划类型,这些计划类型随着情况的发展而逐渐完善。这是对人类认知过程建模的一种直观方法。然而,重要的是用户能够理解、验证甚至为正在使用的模型做出贡献。我们描述了一个工具,可以用来探索,理解和修改,BDI模型的智能体的认知过程中的模拟。该工具是交互式的,允许用户探索特定代理决策点上可用(和不可用)的选项。
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引用次数: 7
Hardware-in-the-loop simulation for automated benchmarking of cloud infrastructures 用于云基础设施自动基准测试的硬件在环模拟
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465036
Qi Liu, Márcio Silva, M. R. Hines, D. D. Silva
To address the challenge of automated performance benchmarking in virtualized cloud infrastructures, an extensible and adaptable framework called CloudBench has been developed to conduct scalable, controllable, and repeatable experiments in such environments. This paper presents the hardware-in-the-loop simulation technique used in CloudBench, which integrates an efficient discrete-event simulation with the cloud infrastructure under test in a closed feedback control loop. The technique supports the decomposition of complex resource usage patterns and provides a mechanism for statistically multiplexing application requests of varied characteristics to generate realistic and emergent behavior. It also exploits parallelism at multiple levels to improve simulation efficiency, while maintaining temporal and causal relationships with proper synchronization. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed technique can synthesize complex resource usage behavior for effective cloud performance benchmarking.
为了应对虚拟化云基础设施中自动性能基准测试的挑战,开发了一个名为CloudBench的可扩展和可适应框架,用于在此类环境中进行可扩展、可控和可重复的实验。本文介绍了CloudBench中使用的硬件在环仿真技术,该技术将有效的离散事件仿真与被测云基础设施集成在一个封闭的反馈控制回路中。该技术支持对复杂的资源使用模式进行分解,并提供了一种机制,用于统计地对不同特征的应用程序请求进行多路复用,以生成现实的紧急行为。它还在多个级别上利用并行性来提高仿真效率,同时通过适当的同步维护时间和因果关系。我们的实验表明,该技术可以综合复杂的资源使用行为,有效地进行云性能基准测试。
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引用次数: 4
Optimal parallelization of a sequential approximate Bayesian computation algorithm 最优并行化的一个顺序近似贝叶斯计算算法
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2012.6465244
J. Marin, P. Pudlo, M. Sedki
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods have a lot of success to accomplish Bayesian inference on the parameters of models for which the calculation of the likelihood is intractable. These algorithms consists in comparing the observed dataset to many simulated datasets. These ones can be generated in different ways. Typically, the rejection ABC scheme consists first of simulating parameters using independent calls to the prior distribution and then, given these values, generating the datasets using independent calls to the model. For such a method, the computation time needed to get a suitable approximation of the posterior distribution can be very long. Also, there exist some sequential Monte Carlo methods replacing simulations from the prior by using successive approximations to the posterior distribution. Here, we recall a sequential simulation algorithm and we compare different parallelization strategies. We notably shown that the parallelization of the sequential ABC sampler is useless when using more than four threads per instance of the program and that the standard rejection ABC sampler has to be used when facing a large number of cores. Indeed, in such a case, the cost of the sequential ABC sampler's parallelization prohibits its use.
近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)方法成功地完成了对模型参数的贝叶斯推理,而模型参数的似然计算是非常困难的。这些算法包括将观测数据集与许多模拟数据集进行比较。它们可以通过不同的方式生成。通常,拒绝ABC方案包括首先使用对先验分布的独立调用模拟参数,然后给定这些值,使用对模型的独立调用生成数据集。对于这种方法,获得合适的后验分布近似值所需的计算时间可能非常长。此外,也存在一些顺序蒙特卡罗方法,用对后验分布的逐次逼近来代替先验的模拟。在这里,我们回顾了一个顺序模拟算法,并比较了不同的并行化策略。我们特别指出,当程序的每个实例使用超过四个线程时,顺序ABC采样器的并行化是无用的,而当面对大量内核时,必须使用标准拒绝ABC采样器。实际上,在这种情况下,顺序ABC采样器并行化的代价阻止了它的使用。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Proceedings Title: Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
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