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Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle 进入和退出,失业和商业周期
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.24149/WP2018R1
Joshua D. Bernstein, A. W. Richter, Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
Establishment entry and exit is strongly correlated with output and unemployment. This paper examines how these linkages affect business cycle dynamics through the lens of a search and matching model augmented to include multi-worker establishments that endogenously enter and exit. Analytical results show cyclical entry and exit cause reallocation of inputs that amplifies and skews business cycle dynamics. When the model is calibrated to the data, it generates realistic asymmetry in output and unemployment, data-consistent counter-cyclical endogenous uncertainty, and a 55% higher welfare cost than the model without entry and exit.
企业的进入和退出与产出和失业率密切相关。本文通过搜索和匹配模型的视角考察了这些联系如何影响商业周期动态,该模型扩展到包括内生进入和退出的多工人企业。分析结果表明,周期性的进入和退出会导致投入的重新分配,从而放大和扭曲商业周期动态。当模型与数据进行校准时,它产生了现实的产出和失业不对称,数据一致的逆周期内生不确定性,并且比没有进入和退出的模型高55%的福利成本。
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引用次数: 0
The Labor Market Impact of a Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS 大流行对劳动力市场的影响:diy CPS的验证和应用
Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3751348
Alexander Bick, A. Blandin
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a central source of U.S. labor market data. We show that, for a few thousand dollars, researchers can quickly design and implement their own online survey to supplement the CPS. The survey closely follows core features of the CPS, ensuring that outcomes are conceptually compatible and allowing researchers to weight and validate results using the official CPS. Yet the survey also allows for faster data collection, added flexibility and novel questions. We show that the survey provided useful estimates of U.S. labor market aggregates several weeks ahead of the CPS during the turbulent start of the COVID-19 recession. We then assess the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity at the onset of the pandemic, finding that wage reductions were widespread, but were more common for job-switchers and recalled workers. We discuss a wide range of additional applications.
当前人口调查(CPS)是美国劳动力市场数据的主要来源。我们表明,只需几千美元,研究人员就可以快速设计和实施他们自己的在线调查,以补充CPS。该调查密切关注CPS的核心特征,确保结果在概念上是兼容的,并允许研究人员使用官方CPS来衡量和验证结果。然而,调查也允许更快的数据收集,增加灵活性和新颖的问题。我们表明,在2019冠状病毒病衰退动荡开始期间,该调查比CPS提前几周提供了对美国劳动力市场总量的有用估计。然后,我们评估了大流行开始时名义工资刚性下降的程度,发现工资削减是普遍存在的,但在换工作和被召回的工人中更为常见。我们讨论了广泛的其他应用。
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引用次数: 3
The Contribution of Jump Activity and Sign to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility 跳跃活动和符号对预测股价波动的贡献
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp1902r1
Ru Bu, Rodrigo Hizmeri, M. Izzeldin, A. Murphy, M. Tsionas
This paper proposes a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and by sign. We also provide noise-robust versions of the ABD jump test (Andersen et al. 2007) and realized semivariance measures for use at high frequency sampling intervals. The volatility forecasting exercise involves the use of different types of jumps, forecast horizons, sampling frequencies, calendar and transaction time-based sampling schemes, as well as standard and noise-robust volatility measures. We find that infinite (finite) jumps improve the forecasts at shorter (longer) horizons; but the contribution of signed jumps is limited. Noise-robust estimators, that identify jumps in the presence of microstructure noise, deliver substantial forecast improvements at higher sampling frequencies. However, standard volatility measures at the 300-second frequency generate the smallest MSPEs. Since no single model dominates across sampling frequency and forecast horizon, we show that model averaged volatility forecasts - using time-varying weights and models from the model confidence set - generally outperform forecasts from both the benchmark and single best extended HAR model.
本文提出了一种按活动类型(有限/无限)和按符号分解已实现跳跃测度的新方法。我们还提供了ABD跳变测试的噪声鲁棒版本(Andersen et al. 2007),并实现了用于高频采样间隔的半方差测量。波动率预测工作涉及使用不同类型的跳跃、预测范围、采样频率、基于日历和交易时间的采样方案,以及标准和噪声稳健的波动率测量。我们发现无限(有限)跳变改善了较短(较长)视界的预测;但是符号跳跃的贡献是有限的。噪声鲁棒估计器可以识别存在微观结构噪声的跳跃,在更高的采样频率下提供实质性的预测改进。然而,300秒频率的标准波动率度量产生最小的mspe。由于没有单一模型在采样频率和预测范围内占主导地位,我们表明模型平均波动率预测-使用时变权重和模型置信度集的模型-通常优于基准和单一最佳扩展HAR模型的预测。
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引用次数: 1
Haste Makes Waste: Banking Organization Growth and Operational Risk 欲速则不达:银行组织成长与操作风险
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2023
W. Frame, Ping McLemore, Atanas Mihov
This study shows that banking organization growth is associated with higher operational losses per dollar of total assets and incidence of tail risks. Event studies using M&A activity and instrumental variable regressions provide consistent evidence. The relationship between banking organization growth and operational risk varies by loss event types and balance sheet categories. We demonstrate that higher growth predicts worse operational risk realizations during the global financial crisis. These findings have implications for bank performance, risk management and supervision in a continually consolidating banking industry.
本研究表明,银行组织成长与较高的每美元总资产经营损失和尾部风险发生率相关。使用并购活动和工具变量回归的事件研究提供了一致的证据。银行组织成长与操作风险之间的关系因损失事件类型和资产负债表类别而异。我们证明,在全球金融危机期间,更高的增长预示着更严重的操作风险实现。这些发现对不断整合的银行业中的银行绩效、风险管理和监管具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 7
Quantitative Easing and Financial Risk Taking: Evidence from Agency Mortgage REITs 量化宽松与金融风险承担:来自机构抵押贷款REITs的证据
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2020
W. Frame, Eva Steiner
An emerging literature documents a link between central bank quantitative easing (QE) and financial institution credit risk-taking. This paper tests the complementary hypothesis that QE may also affect financial risk-taking. We study Agency MREITs – levered shadow banks that invest in guaranteed U.S. Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) principally funded with repo debt. We show that Agency MREIT growth is inversely related to the Federal Reserve’s Agency MBS purchases, reflecting investor portfolio rebalancing. We also find that these institutions increased leverage during the later stages of QE, consistent with “reaching for yield” behavior. Agency MREITs seem to concurrently adjust their liquidity and interest rate risk profiles.
一项新兴的文献记录了央行量化宽松(QE)与金融机构信贷冒险之间的联系。本文检验了量化宽松也可能影响金融风险承担的互补假设。我们研究机构MREITs -杠杆影子银行,投资于担保的美国机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS),主要由回购债务提供资金。我们表明,机构MREIT的增长与美联储的机构MBS购买呈负相关,反映了投资者投资组合的再平衡。我们还发现,这些机构在量化宽松的后期阶段增加了杠杆,与“追求收益”的行为相一致。机构MREITs似乎同时调整其流动性和利率风险概况。
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引用次数: 1
Impulse Response Analysis for Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors 非线性回归结构动力模型的冲击响应分析
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2019
Sílvia Gonçalves, Ana María Herrera, L. Kilian, E. Pesavento
Abstract We study the construction of nonlinear impulse responses in linear structural dynamic models that include nonlinearly transformed regressors. We derive the closed-form solution for the population impulse responses to a given shock and propose a control function approach to estimating these responses without taking a stand on how the remainder of the model is identified. Our plug-in estimator dispenses with the need for simulations and, unlike conventional local projection (LP) estimators, is consistent. A modified LP estimator is shown to be consistent in special cases, but less accurate in finite samples than the plug-in estimator.
摘要研究了包含非线性变换回归量的线性结构动力模型的非线性脉冲响应的构造。我们导出了给定冲击的总体脉冲响应的封闭形式解,并提出了一种控制函数方法来估计这些响应,而不需要对模型的其余部分如何识别采取立场。我们的插件估计器不需要模拟,而且与传统的局部投影(LP)估计器不同,它是一致的。改进的LP估计器在特殊情况下是一致的,但在有限样本中不如插入估计器准确。
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引用次数: 12
Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and Macroeconomic Tail Risk 进入和退出、失业和宏观经济尾部风险
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2018
Joshua D. Bernstein, A. W. Richter, Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
This paper builds a nonlinear business cycle model with endogenous firm entry and exit and equilibrium unemployment. The entry and exit mechanism generates asymmetry and amplifies the transmission of productivity shocks, exposing the economy to significant tail risk. When calibrating the rates of entry and exit to match their shares of job creation and destruction, our quantitative model generates higher-order moments consistent with U.S. data. Firm exit particularly amplifies the severity and persistence of deep recessions such as the COVID-19 crisis. In the absence of entry and exit, the model generates almost no asymmetry or tail risk.
本文建立了一个具有内生企业进入和退出和均衡失业的非线性经济周期模型。进入和退出机制产生了不对称,放大了生产率冲击的传导,使经济暴露于显著的尾部风险。当校准进入和退出的比率以匹配其创造和破坏就业的份额时,我们的定量模型产生与美国数据一致的高阶矩。企业退出尤其会放大COVID-19危机等深度衰退的严重性和持久性。在没有进入和退出的情况下,该模型几乎不会产生不对称或尾部风险。
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引用次数: 1
The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market 页岩革命与石油市场动态
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2021
Nathan S. Balke, Xin Jin, Mine K. Yücel
We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market in order to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a dramatic decrease in shale production costs and explore how the resultant increase in shale production affects the level and volatility of oil prices over our sample. We find that oil prices in 2018 would have been roughly 36% higher had the shale revolution not occurred and that the shale revolution implies a reduction in current oil price volatility around 25% and a decline in long-run volatility of over 50%.
为了量化页岩革命的影响,我们建立并估计了世界石油市场的动态结构模型。我们将页岩革命建模为页岩生产成本的急剧下降,并探索页岩产量的增加如何影响我们样本的油价水平和波动性。我们发现,如果页岩革命没有发生,2018年的油价将高出约36%,页岩革命意味着当前油价波动率将降低25%左右,长期波动率将下降50%以上。
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引用次数: 3
Rationally Inattentive Savers and Monetary Policy Changes: A Laboratory Experiment 理性疏忽的储蓄者与货币政策变化:一个实验室实验
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp1915
Andrea Civelli, Cary A. Deck, Antonella Tutino
We study the response of consumption and saving decisions of rationally inattentive individuals to changes in monetary policy in the laboratory. First, we theoretically characterize the choices of a rationally inattentive agent processing information about the interest rate. Then, we design an experiment with induced inattention to test for the predictions of the model, contrasting them to the full information case. Consistent with the predictions, experimental subjects (a) increase attention when utility gains exceed cognitive costs of tracking the policy rate and decrease savings when their perceived economic outlook deteriorates; (b) respond to Delphic, but not Odyssean, forms of forward guidance. These ?ndings agree with recent empirical evidence on monetary policy e?ects on consumption behavior in U.S. and internationally.
我们在实验室中研究了理性不集中的个人的消费和储蓄决策对货币政策变化的反应。首先,我们从理论上描述了处理利率信息的理性不注意代理人的选择。然后,我们设计了一个诱导注意力不集中的实验来测试模型的预测,并将其与完全信息情况进行对比。与预测一致,实验对象(a)当效用收益超过跟踪政策利率的认知成本时,会增加注意力;当他们感知到经济前景恶化时,会减少储蓄;(b)回应德尔菲而非奥德修斯的前瞻性指引。这些发现与最近有关货币政策的实证证据一致。对美国及国际消费行为的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Making Sense of Increased Syncrhonization in Global Housing Prices 解读全球房价同步性增强的原因
Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp1911
John V. Duca
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide perspective on whether and why global metro house prices have become more synchronized, and perspective on the limited implications of this for investing in international real estate.Design/methodology/approachThis paper reviews main findings from the literature on house price determination, reviews the emerging literature on global synchronization, and provides graphs to illustrate main points and trends.FindingsHouse prices have become somewhat more synchronized likely reflecting greater correlation in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, this trend has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across areas. Theory and evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more synchronized are house price cycles and the more substitution effects may matter. Also, real estate markets that are open to immigration and foreign investment have become more sensitive to shifts in the international demand for property by migrants or investors.Research limitations/implicationsChanges in international house price synchronization stem from variation in two categories of key drivers of house prices. The first are traditional supply and demand fundamentals. The second include international capital flows and immigration. Both sets of factors are sensitive to the economic environment and public policy. Increased synchronization of business cycles, the Euro currency union, and more common monetary policy strategies and tactics have fostered greater correlation of real interest rates across countries, which tend to increase house price synchronization. These effects can be amplified by the tendency for property owners to use extrapolative expectations of future house prices.Practical implicationsShifts in prospective returns and the synchronization of international property returns not only on arbitrage of general property price differentials but also on underlying factors driving those differentials. Investors need to be mindful of the risks that metro prices sometimes reflect bubble-builder dynamics that can give rise to over-shooting of house prices. Observing simple correlations and changes in those correlations does not do away with the need for careful analysis of property investment, and if anything, warrant analysis of both how and why one may observe changes in the extent to which international house prices is synchronized.Social implicationsDespite the rise of globalization and of new technologies, the author has seen substantial divergences in house prices emerge across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. These reflect not only the impact of stronger income and population in more tech, educated and global oriented cities but also changes in the demand for amenities toward more cultur
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers
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