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What Do We Know About the Capital Structure of Privately Held Firms? Evidence from the Surveys of Small Business Finance 我们对私有企业的资本结构了解多少?来自小企业融资调查的证据
Pub Date : 2012-12-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1013085
Rebel A. Cole
This study examines the capital-structure decisions of privately held US firms using data from four nationally representative surveys conducted from 1987 to 2003. Book-value firm leverage, as measured by either the ratio of total loans to total assets or the ratio of total liabilities to total assets, is negatively related to firm age and minority ownership; and is positively related to industry median leverage, the corporate legal form of organization, and to the number of banking relationships. In general, these results provide mixed support for both the Pecking-Order and Trade-Off theories of capital structure. What do we know about the capital structure of privately held US firms? The answer is “not much,” as almost all existing empirical studies of the capital structure of US firms have relied upon Compustat data for large corporations with publicly traded securities. 1 Although such large, publicly traded corporations hold the vast majority of business assets, they account for only a small fraction of the number of business entities. In the United States, for example, there are fewer than 10,000 firms that issue publicly traded securities, yet according to the US Internal Revenue Service, there were approximately 30 million small businesses as of
本研究利用1987年至2003年间进行的四次全国代表性调查的数据,考察了美国私人控股公司的资本结构决策。帐面价值公司杠杆,以总贷款与总资产的比率或总负债与总资产的比率来衡量,与公司年龄和少数股权负相关;且与行业中位杠杆、公司法人组织形式、银行关系数量呈正相关。总体而言,这些结果对资本结构的啄食顺序理论和权衡理论都提供了混合支持。我们对美国私人控股公司的资本结构了解多少?答案是“不多”,因为几乎所有现有的关于美国公司资本结构的实证研究都依赖于Compustat对拥有公开交易证券的大公司的数据。尽管这些大型的上市公司拥有绝大多数的商业资产,但它们只占商业实体数量的一小部分。例如,在美国,发行公开交易证券的公司不到1万家,但根据美国国税局的数据,截至目前,美国约有3000万家小企业
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引用次数: 197
Determinants of Private Equity Fundraising: An Analysis of Competition, Uncertainty, and Barriers to Entry 私募股权融资的决定因素:竞争、不确定性和进入壁垒分析
Pub Date : 2011-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1946968
Adam A. Wadecki, David J. Brophy
We employ a two-stage, n-firm differentiated products framework to examine the effect of competition for investors' capital, uncertainty, and barriers to entry on private equity fundraising. In the first stage, firms simultaneously decide whether or not they will raise capital. Participating firms each pay an identical, fixed setup cost and subsequently compete in Cournot or Bertrand competition to sell partnership units in their funds. Our results help explain the fundraising process through analyses of equilibrium prices, quantities, firm profits, and the consumer surplus.
我们采用了一个两阶段、n家公司差异化产品框架来检验投资者资本竞争、不确定性和进入壁垒对私募股权融资的影响。在第一阶段,企业同时决定是否筹集资金。每家参与的公司都支付相同的固定设立成本,随后在古诺或伯特兰竞争中出售其基金中的合伙单位。通过对均衡价格、数量、企业利润和消费者剩余的分析,我们的研究结果有助于解释融资过程。
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引用次数: 2
Technological Innovation Spillovers and Stock Returns 技术创新溢出效应与股票收益
Pub Date : 2011-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1458011
Po-Hsuan Hsu
This paper empirically examines the effects of industrial and geographic innovations on firm-level profitability and stock returns due to spillovers. Using the data of U.S. patents and patent inventors, we propose empirical proxies for industrial and geographic spillovers and find a positive relation between innovation spillovers and profitability. In addition, firms with higher industrial or geographic spillovers are found to provide higher stock returns. We also construct an industrial spillover factor and a geographic spillover factor based on sorted portfolios, and find that both carry significant loadings in the stochastic discount factor. Our empirical evidence suggests an important role of innovation spillovers in asset pricing.
本文实证考察了产业创新和地域创新对溢出效应下企业盈利能力和股票收益的影响。利用美国专利和专利发明人的数据,我们提出了产业溢出和地理溢出的实证代理,并发现创新溢出与盈利能力之间存在正相关关系。此外,具有较高产业或地理溢出效应的公司提供较高的股票回报。我们还构建了基于分类投资组合的产业溢出因子和地理溢出因子,并发现两者在随机贴现因子中都具有显著的负荷。我们的经验证据表明,创新溢出在资产定价中发挥了重要作用。
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引用次数: 3
Pay for Performance from Future Fund Flows: The Case of Private Equity 未来资金流动的绩效报酬:私募股权案例
Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W16369
Ji-Woong Chung, Berk A. Sensoy, L. Stern, M. Weisbach
Lifetime incomes of private equity general partners are affected by their current funds' performance through both carried interest profit sharing provisions, and also by the effect of the current fund's performance on general partners' abilities to raise capital for future funds. We present a learning-based framework for estimating the market-based pay for performance arising from future fundraising. For the typical first-time private equity fund, we estimate that implicit pay for performance from expected future fundraising is approximately the same order of magnitude as the explicit pay for performance general partners receive from carried interest in their current fund, implying that the performance-sensitive component of general partner revenue is about twice as large as commonly discussed. Consistent with the learning framework, we find that implicit pay for performance is stronger when managerial abilities are more scalable and weaker when current performance contains less new information about ability. Specifically, implicit pay for performance is stronger for buyout funds compared to venture capital funds, and declines in the sequence of a partnership's funds. Our framework can be adapted to estimate implicit pay for performance in other asset management settings in which future fund flows and compensation depend on current performance.
私募股权普通合伙人的终身收入受到其当前基金业绩的影响,包括附带权益利润分成条款,以及当前基金业绩对普通合伙人为未来基金筹集资金能力的影响。我们提出了一个基于学习的框架,用于估计未来融资产生的基于市场的绩效薪酬。对于典型的首次成立的私募股权基金,我们估计,来自预期未来融资的隐性绩效报酬与普通合伙人从其当前基金附带权益中获得的显性绩效报酬大致相同,这意味着普通合伙人收入中对绩效敏感的部分大约是通常讨论的两倍。与学习框架一致,我们发现当管理能力更具可扩展性时,隐性绩效薪酬更强,而当当前绩效包含的有关能力的新信息较少时,隐性绩效薪酬更弱。具体来说,与风险投资基金相比,收购基金的隐性绩效薪酬更强,并且在合伙基金的顺序中下降。我们的框架可以用于估计其他资产管理环境中的隐性绩效薪酬,在这些环境中,未来的资金流和薪酬取决于当前的绩效。
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引用次数: 186
Deal Process, Asymmetric Bidder and Target Premium 交易过程、不对称出价人和目标溢价
Pub Date : 2009-01-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1329347
Kangzhen Xie
Boone and Mulherin (2007) document the private firm sale process and find that the wealth eff ects for target shareholders are comparable in both auctions and negotiations. Since auctions are more costly relative to negotiations, this begs the question of whether firms should use auctions. We hypothesize that sale process is most likely determined by the party that initiates the deal. In this paper, we collect a new variable denoted Initiator which identities the party that approaches the other first to initiate a deal talk. We hypothesize that when an acquirer initiates a deal, the acquirer will prefer a negotiated deal since in an auction other bidders may surface and force the acquirer to pay a higher premium. we find that most negotiation deals are in fact initiated by the acquirers. We also find evidence that the target firms receive higher excess returns in the deals initiated by the acquirers than in the deals initiated by the targets. We also find that most of the target initiated deals use auction, which indicates that the role of auction is to help the seller to find a buyer and increase the bargaining power. This paper serves to further our understanding of how the acquirer and the target interact to determine the deal form and the premium.
Boone和Mulherin(2007)记录了私营企业的出售过程,并发现在拍卖和谈判中,对目标股东的财富效应是相当的。由于拍卖相对于谈判成本更高,这就引出了公司是否应该使用拍卖的问题。我们假设销售过程最有可能由发起交易的一方决定。在本文中,我们收集了一个新的变量,称为发起者,它标识了首先接近另一方发起交易谈判的一方。我们假设,当收购方发起交易时,收购方将倾向于协商交易,因为在拍卖中可能会出现其他投标人,并迫使收购方支付更高的溢价。我们发现,大多数谈判交易实际上是由收购方发起的。我们还发现有证据表明,收购方发起的交易中,目标公司获得的超额回报高于被收购方发起的交易。我们还发现,大多数目标发起的交易都使用了拍卖,这表明拍卖的作用是帮助卖方找到买方,提高议价能力。本文有助于我们进一步理解收购方和被收购方是如何相互作用决定交易形式和溢价的。
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引用次数: 5
A Primer on the Role of Securitization in the Credit Market Crisis of 2007 论证券化在2007年信贷市场危机中的作用
Pub Date : 2009-01-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1324349
John D. Martin
In this paper I review the role of securitization in the credit markets and in particular the possible contribution of securitization to the credit crisis of 2007-2008. Based on this review I make the following observations: (i) over the last three decades the originate-to-distribute via securitization model has come to dominate the U.S. credit markets; (ii) the originate-to-distribute model has many possible advantages but brings with it a potentially fatal principal agent problem in the credit screening process; (iii) the growing complexity of the securitization process has given rise to a "market for lemons" problem that may well have contributed to the collapse of the market for securitized issues; and (v) the collapse of the mortgage backed securities market resulted in the use of distress prices by financial institutions to mark-to-market their portfolios and this may well have contributed to the panic that resulted in the failure of the affected financial institutions.
在本文中,我回顾了证券化在信贷市场中的作用,特别是证券化对2007-2008年信贷危机的可能贡献。基于这一回顾,我做出了以下观察:(I)在过去的三十年中,通过证券化的原始发行模式已经主导了美国信贷市场;(二)“先发后分销”模式有许多可能的优势,但在信用审查过程中也带来了潜在的致命委托代理问题;(iii)证券化过程的日益复杂导致了“柠檬市场”问题,这很可能导致了证券化发行市场的崩溃;(5)抵押贷款支持证券市场的崩溃导致金融机构使用危机价格来按市值计价其投资组合,这很可能导致恐慌,导致受影响的金融机构倒闭。
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引用次数: 16
Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007 2007年的信息、流动性和(持续的)恐慌
Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1324195
Gary B. Gorton
The credit crisis was sparked by a shock to fundamentals, housing prices failed to rise, which led to a collapse of trust in credit markets. In particular, the repurchase agreement market in the U.S., estimated to be about $12 trillion, larger than the total assets in the U.S. banking system ($10 trillion), became very illiquid during the crisis due to the fear of counterparty default, leaving lenders with illiquid bonds that they did not want, believing that they could not be sold. As a result, there was an increase in repo haircuts (the initial margin), causing massive deleveraging. I investigate this indirectly, by looking at the breakdown in the arbitrage foundation of the ABX.HE indices during the panic. The ABX.HE indices of subprime mortgage-backed securities are derivatives linked to the underlying subprime bonds. Introduced in 2006, the indices aggregated and revealed information about the value of the subprime mortgage-backed securities and allowed parties to buy protection against declines in subprime value via credit derivatives written on the index or tranches of the index. When the ABX prices plummeted, the arbitrage relationships linking the credit derivatives linked to the index and the underlying bonds broke down because liquidity evaporated in the repo market. This breakdown allows a glimpse of the information problems that led to illiquidity in the repo markets, and the extent of the demand for protection against subprime risk.
信贷危机的导火索是对基本面的冲击,房价未能上涨,这导致了信贷市场信任的崩溃。特别是,比美国银行体系总资产(10万亿美元)还要大的12万亿美元规模的美国回购协议市场,由于担心对手违约,在危机期间变得非常缺乏流动性,导致银行持有他们不想要的缺乏流动性的债券,认为这些债券无法出售。结果,回购减记(初始保证金)增加,导致大规模去杠杆化。我通过观察ABX套利基础的崩溃,间接地研究了这一点。恐慌期间的HE指数。ABX。次级抵押贷款支持证券的HE指数是与次级债券挂钩的衍生品。该指数于2006年推出,它汇总并披露了次级抵押贷款支持证券的价值信息,并允许各方通过写在该指数或该指数部分上的信用衍生品,购买防范次级抵押贷款价值下跌的保护措施。当ABX价格暴跌时,将与该指数挂钩的信贷衍生品与标的债券联系起来的套利关系破裂,因为回购市场的流动性蒸发了。这一细分让我们得以一窥导致回购市场流动性不足的信息问题,以及对防范次贷风险的需求程度。
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引用次数: 312
Globalization Reform for Sustainable, Global, Economic Development 全球化改革促进可持续的全球经济发展
Pub Date : 2008-12-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1317085
David MAYER-FOULKES
Liberalization unleashed a wave of globalization over the period 1980-2007, and the international sector experienced miracle growth. While profits rose to all time highs, global saving exceeded global investment. Long-term interest rates declined to very low levels. After a global housing appreciation, excessive risk in a deregulated financial market led to a financial meltdown. A laissez faire economy led by TNCs was unable to generate enough investment, lacking its publically provided complements: infrastructure, education, health, science, equity, environmental sustainability. While in the US restoring financial markets and reducing the housing market fallout are immediate priorities, economic growth can only be recovered by restoring global investment. Lowering interest rates cannot generate very much investment, nor will consumption flows from fiscal spending. To stimulate the global economy, whole new economic sectors and technologies must be developed in advanced countries, and economic development deepened in underdeveloped countries. Global integration is not synonymous with laissez faire. A global harmonization of taxes is required to fund publically provided goods and to balance incentives between local and international production, reducing imbalances in developed and underdeveloped countries, strengthening global cooperation, and balancing global markets with global governance. Developing the green energy sector is consistent with these aims.
自由化在1980年至2007年期间掀起了一波全球化浪潮,国际部门经历了奇迹般的增长。在利润升至历史新高的同时,全球储蓄超过了全球投资。长期利率降至非常低的水平。在全球房地产升值之后,放松管制的金融市场中的过度风险导致了金融崩溃。由跨国公司领导的自由放任经济无法产生足够的投资,因为缺乏公共提供的补充:基础设施、教育、保健、科学、公平、环境可持续性。虽然在美国,恢复金融市场和减少房地产市场的影响是当务之急,但只有通过恢复全球投资才能恢复经济增长。降低利率不会产生大量投资,财政支出也不会带来消费。为了刺激全球经济,发达国家必须开发全新的经济部门和技术,不发达国家必须深化经济发展。全球一体化并不是自由放任的同义词。为了资助公共产品,平衡本地和国际生产之间的激励,减少发达国家和不发达国家之间的不平衡,加强全球合作,平衡全球市场与全球治理,需要在全球范围内协调税收。发展绿色能源行业与这些目标是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Sales Forecasting with Financial Indicators and Experts' Input 根据财务指标和专家意见进行销售预测
Pub Date : 2008-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1300473
Nikolay Osadchiy, V. Gaur, S. Seshadri
We present a method for forecasting sales using financial market information and test this method on annual data for US public retailers. Our method is motivated by the permanent income hypothesis in economics, which states that the amount of consumer spending and the mix of spending between discretionary and necessity items depend on the returns achieved on equity portfolios held by consumers. Taking as input forecasts from other sources, such as equity analysts or time-series models, we construct a market-based forecast by augmenting the input forecast with one additional variable, lagged return on an aggregate financial market index. For this, we develop and estimate a martingale model of joint evolution of sales forecasts and the market index. We show that the market-based forecast achieves an average 15% reduction in mean absolute percentage error compared with forecasts given by equity analysts at the same time instant on out-of-sample data. We extensively analyze the performance improvement using alternative model specifications and statistics. We also show that equity analysts do not incorporate lagged financial market returns in their forecasts. Our model yields correlation coefficients between retail sales and market returns for all firms in the data set. Besides forecasting, these results can be applied in risk management and hedging.
我们提出了一种利用金融市场信息预测销售的方法,并对美国公共零售商的年度数据进行了测试。我们的方法是由经济学中的永久收入假设驱动的,该假设指出,消费者支出的数量以及可自由支配和必需品之间的支出组合取决于消费者持有的股票投资组合所获得的回报。从其他来源(如股票分析师或时间序列模型)获取输入预测,我们通过在输入预测中增加一个额外变量(总金融市场指数的滞后回报)来构建基于市场的预测。为此,我们开发并估计了销售预测和市场指数联合演变的鞅模型。我们表明,与股票分析师在同一时间对样本外数据给出的预测相比,基于市场的预测在平均绝对百分比误差上平均降低了15%。我们使用可选的模型规范和统计数据广泛地分析性能改进。我们还表明,股票分析师在他们的预测中没有考虑滞后的金融市场回报。我们的模型给出了数据集中所有公司的零售额和市场回报之间的相关系数。除了预测外,这些结果还可以应用于风险管理和对冲。
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引用次数: 34
The Debt Agency Costs of Family Ownership: Firm Level Evidence on Small and Micro Firms 家族所有权的债务代理成本:基于小微企业的企业层面证据
Pub Date : 2007-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1010905
Mervi Niskanen, Virpi Kaikkonen, J. Niskanen
This study investigates the impact that family ownership has on loan availability and credit terms. Our study differs from existing literature by investigating the impacts of family ownership on loan availability and credit terms in a sample of small and micro Finnish firms. Our results suggest that loan availability becomes weaker when family ownership increases. Collateral requirements increase with management ownership, but contrary to previous studies on large, listed firms we find no effect on interest rates. These results suggest that there are agency costs involved with family ownership and that banks take this into account when lending to these firms. We also find that the impact of other attributes that affect loan availability of credit terms is different for family firms as opposed to non-family firms. Our results suggest that an increase in firm age improves loan availability and reduces collateral requirements only for the non-family firms. We also find that while an increase in profitability improves loan availability for all firms, it reduces interest rates and collateral requirements only for family firms. The results on relationship lending effects suggest that there are no differences in non-family and family firms. When it comes to bank market concentration, it seems that an increase in the number of local banks improves loan availability only for the non-family firms.
本研究探讨了家族所有权对贷款可得性和信用条件的影响。我们的研究不同于现有的文献,通过调查家庭所有权对芬兰小型和微型公司的贷款可用性和信贷条款的影响。我们的研究结果表明,当家庭所有权增加时,贷款的可获得性会变弱。抵押品要求随着管理层所有权的增加而增加,但与之前对大型上市公司的研究相反,我们发现对利率没有影响。这些结果表明,家族所有权涉及代理成本,银行在向这些公司提供贷款时考虑到这一点。我们还发现,与非家族企业相比,其他影响信贷条件贷款可得性的属性对家族企业的影响是不同的。我们的研究结果表明,企业年龄的增加提高了贷款的可获得性,并降低了非家族企业的抵押品要求。我们还发现,虽然盈利能力的提高提高了所有企业的贷款可得性,但它只降低了家族企业的利率和抵押品要求。关系借贷效应的研究结果表明,非家族企业和家族企业的关系借贷效应没有差异。就银行市场集中度而言,地方银行数量的增加似乎只会改善非家族企业的贷款可得性。
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引用次数: 5
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