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Impact of information sharing on bullwhip effect in a non-serial supply chain with deterministic lead time 具有确定性提前期的非串行供应链中信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3947016
Tamerat Kebede Mekonnen
In this paper, we study the impact of retailers’ forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. We consider three forecasting methods: Moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), and minimum mean squared error (MMSE). We model retailers’ demand by a first-order autoregressive process. We also assume a base-stock policy for retailers’ stock replenishment. Based on Zhang (2004), we derive expressions for the bullwhip effect for each of the forecasting methods. We considered deterministic as well as stochastic lead time. We also consider multiple independent retailers. Our findings indicate that the impact of demand correlation and lead time on bullwhip effect changes with the forecasting method. However, the patterns seem to remain unaffected by the nature of lead time and the number of retailers. We also observe MMSE to outperform MA and ES when the bullwhip effect is the main concern.
本文研究了零售商的预测方法对牛鞭效应的影响。我们考虑了三种预测方法:移动平均(MA)、指数平滑(ES)和最小均方误差(MMSE)。我们用一阶自回归过程对零售商的需求进行建模。我们还假设零售商的库存补充采用基本库存策略。在Zhang(2004)的基础上,我们推导出了每种预测方法的牛鞭效应表达式。我们考虑了确定性和随机提前期。我们也考虑多个独立的零售商。研究结果表明,需求相关性和提前期对牛鞭效应的影响随预测方法的变化而变化。然而,这种模式似乎不受交货时间和零售商数量的影响。我们还观察到,当牛鞭效应主要考虑时,MMSE的表现优于MA和ES。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Forecasting Methods on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain with One Distributor and Multiple Retailers 单分销商多零售商供应链中预测方法对牛鞭效应的影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3947026
Tamerat Kebede Mekonnen
In this paper, we study the impact of retailers’ forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. We consider three forecasting methods: Moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), and minimum mean squared error (MMSE). We model retailers’ demand by a first-order autoregressive process. We also assume a base-stock policy for retailers’ stock replenishment. Based on Zhang (2004), we derive expressions for the bullwhip effect for each of the forecasting methods. We considered deterministic as well as stochastic lead time. We also consider multiple independent retailers. Our findings indicate that the impact of demand correlation and lead time on bullwhip effect changes with the forecasting method. However, the patterns seem to remain unaffected by the nature of lead time and the number of retailers. We also observe MMSE to outperform MA and ES when the bullwhip effect is the main concern.
本文研究了零售商的预测方法对牛鞭效应的影响。我们考虑了三种预测方法:移动平均(MA)、指数平滑(ES)和最小均方误差(MMSE)。我们用一阶自回归过程对零售商的需求进行建模。我们还假设零售商的库存补充采用基本库存策略。在Zhang(2004)的基础上,我们推导出了每种预测方法的牛鞭效应表达式。我们考虑了确定性和随机提前期。我们也考虑多个独立的零售商。研究结果表明,需求相关性和提前期对牛鞭效应的影响随预测方法的变化而变化。然而,这种模式似乎不受交货时间和零售商数量的影响。我们还观察到,当牛鞭效应主要考虑时,MMSE的表现优于MA和ES。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Design of Secondary Fume Extraction Systems in Ferroalloys Production: from Principles to Operation 铁合金生产中二次排烟系统的优化设计:从原理到运行
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926016
M. Kadkhodabeigi
In ERAMET Norway AS (ENO) as one of the world’s largest producers of different grades of high manganese alloys, sustainable operation has always been a priority. There are therefore continuous activities in different plants of ENO in order to reduce environmental footprints of our operations. One of the main areas of focus in such activities has been reducing diffuse emissions through design and implementation of efficient fume extraction systems based on a systematic approach. Optimal design of secondary fume extraction systems in ferroalloys industry has always been challenging. The main reason for this, is the diffuse nature of emissions which are generated from different metallurgical processes. Although design of fume capturing systems based on principles of diffuse emissions extraction is the key for high performance capturing of generated fumes from molten slag and metal but there are several operational details, practical aspects and external parameters which should be taken care of them while making an industrial design. These aspects may cause deviation of a design from its ideal conditions because of the need for necessary modifications of the design. In order to make optimal design for secondary fume extraction systems with, having full overview on practical and operational aspects, applying industrial competences, using process information and operational data and applying proper modelling methods to evaluate performance of the system at each st ep, from initial idea to final design, are of great importance. In this work, principles for design of efficient secondary fume extraction systems, main reasons of deviation from best design in the industry and ENO’s practice based on the systematic approach for making an optimal design considering all operational restrictions, is presented.
ERAMET Norway AS (ENO)作为世界上最大的不同等级高锰合金生产商之一,可持续运营一直是我们的首要任务。因此,ENO在不同的工厂不断开展活动,以减少我们运营的环境足迹。这些活动的主要重点领域之一是通过设计和实施基于系统方法的高效排烟系统来减少漫射排放。铁合金工业二次排烟系统的优化设计一直是一个具有挑战性的问题。造成这种情况的主要原因是,不同冶金过程产生的排放物具有弥漫性。尽管基于扩散排放提取原理的烟雾捕获系统的设计是高效捕获熔融渣和金属产生的烟雾的关键,但在进行工业设计时,有几个操作细节,实际方面和外部参数应该考虑到它们。这些方面可能导致设计偏离其理想状态,因为需要对设计进行必要的修改。为了对二次排烟系统进行优化设计,对实际和操作方面有全面的概述,应用工业能力,使用过程信息和操作数据,并应用适当的建模方法来评估系统从最初的想法到最终设计的每个步骤的性能,是非常重要的。在这项工作中,介绍了高效二次排烟系统的设计原则,偏离行业最佳设计的主要原因以及ENO基于考虑所有操作限制的系统优化设计方法的实践。
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引用次数: 0
Effective Binary Diffusivity of Silica and Viscosity of Silicomanganese Slag in the Smelting of Comilog and Wessels Ores Comilog和Wessels矿石冶炼中二氧化硅的有效二元扩散系数和硅锰渣的粘度
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926105
O. Ostrovski
Reduction of manganese and silicon oxides in smelting of silicomanganese causes significant changes in slag composition and properties, increasing the slag viscosity and decreasing diffusivities of slag components. These changes can have a strong effect on the kinetics of reduction reactions. This paper analyses effective binary diffusivity of silica and slag viscosity in the process of smelting of silicomanganese from Comilog and Wessels ores. Compositions of slag and metal phases and slag viscosity were calculated using FACTSage Version 7.2 at 1450-1600 oC. Comilog ore contained high concentration of alumina while Wessels ore had lower concentrations of Al2O3 and MnO and higher concentrations of FeO and CaO in comparison with Comilog ore. Silica effective binary diffusivity and slag viscosity were related to the ratio of non-bridging oxygens per tetrahedrally coordinated cations (NBO/T), which decreased in the process of oxides reduction. Changes in the slag composition and NBO/T ratio caused increase in the slag viscosity and decrease in the effective binary diffusivity of silica in the smelting of Comilog ore by more than an order in magnitude. In the smelting of Wessels ore, slag viscosity increased and silica effective binary diffusivity decreased by approximately 5-fold
硅锰冶炼过程中锰、硅氧化物的还原使炉渣组成和性能发生显著变化,炉渣粘度增大,炉渣组分扩散系数降低。这些变化对还原反应的动力学有很大的影响。本文分析了Comilog和Wessels矿石中硅锰冶炼过程中二氧化硅的有效二元扩散系数和炉渣粘度。使用FACTSage Version 7.2在1450-1600℃下计算炉渣和金属相的组成以及炉渣粘度。Comilog矿石的氧化铝浓度较高,而Wessels矿石的Al2O3和MnO浓度较低,FeO和CaO浓度较高。二氧化硅有效二元扩散率和炉渣粘度与非桥氧/四面体配位阳离子(NBO/T)比值有关,该比值在氧化物还原过程中减小。在Comilog矿石冶炼过程中,炉渣组成和NBO/T比的变化导致炉渣粘度升高,二氧化硅有效二元扩散系数降低一个数量级以上。在Wessels矿石冶炼过程中,炉渣粘度增大,二氧化硅有效二元扩散系数降低约5倍
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引用次数: 0
An Experimental Study of the Formation of Surface Agglomerates in a Submerged Arc Furnace 埋弧炉表面结块形成的实验研究
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926630
Ville-Valtteri Visuri, E. Kunelius, E. Puukko, T. Fabritius
Submerged arc furnace (SAF) is a continuously operating furnace used for ferrochrome production. As the SAF is practically full of feed materials, liquid metal and slag, agglomerates may form in different parts of the furnace. The aim of this work was to set up an experimental apparatus to study the effect of temperature and atmosphere on the formation tendency of agglomerates. The agglomerates formed in the experiments were analyzed using a scanning electron microscope to study their agglomeration mechanism. The results indicate that the main agglomeration mechanisms are sintering and cold welding. Agglomerates formed by sintering exhibited both metallic and oxidic binder phases. The compression strength of the agglomerates was found to exhibit high variance but did exhibit a clear dependence on the agglomeration mechanism.
埋弧炉(SAF)是一种用于铬铁生产的连续炉。由于SAF几乎充满了原料、液态金属和炉渣,因此炉内的不同部位可能会形成结块。本工作的目的是建立一个实验装置,研究温度和气氛对团聚体形成倾向的影响。利用扫描电镜对实验中形成的团聚体进行了分析,研究了其团聚机理。结果表明,烧结和冷焊是主要的团聚机制。烧结形成的团块具有金属相和氧化结合剂相。发现团聚体的抗压强度表现出很高的方差,但确实表现出明显的依赖于团聚机制。
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引用次数: 0
Technical Focus on DC-arc Furnace Application to Waste Stream Smelting 直流电弧炉在废液冶炼中的应用技术要点
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3927113
S. Louw, B. Belford, A. van Niekerk, R. Degel, M. Reuter
The application of DC-arc furnaces to the production of commodities such as ferrochrome, ilmenite and smelting of stainless-steel plant waste streams has progressed substantially over the last 30 years. The DC-arc furnace remains a suitable smelting unit for both consumer- & other steel plant waste products and will play a potentially significant role in the development of a circular economy. With increasing environmental legislation requirements and the associated treatment and disposal cost of consumer-, steel plant and smelter waste products, processing of these waste products is increasingly becoming more economically viable, yielding a strong business case and an overall positive environmental impact. The waste products such as spent catalysts, mill scales, steel fines and bag filter dusts often contain valuable elements and various processing routes exist to treat these waste products. The DC-arc furnace is a well-suited furnace application due to its ability to process fine materials and yield products with a higher economical value, without the need of feed-material agglomeration or high-end reductants. Inherently, the process behaviour of these furnaces is dynamic where strict metallurgical process control principles must be applied by the process team to keep the metallurgical condition of the furnace within its operational boundaries. In addition, a number of furnace design aspects further influence the control measures available to the team. This paper will focus on the application of DC-arc furnaces for fine waste stream processing, focussing on a stainless-steel waste sludge case study, with a technical focus on the inherent characteristics and design requirements of these furnaces, required to achieve a stable furnace operation.
在过去的30年里,直流电弧炉在生产铬铁、钛铁矿和不锈钢厂废液冶炼等商品方面的应用取得了实质性进展。直流电弧炉仍然是消费和其他钢铁厂废料的合适冶炼装置,并将在循环经济的发展中发挥潜在的重要作用。随着环境立法要求的增加以及消费者、钢铁厂和冶炼厂废物的相关处理和处置费用的增加,这些废物的处理在经济上越来越可行,产生了强有力的商业案例和全面的积极环境影响。废催化剂、磨屑、钢粉、袋式除尘器粉尘等废弃物往往含有有价元素,有多种处理途径。直流电弧炉是一种非常适合的炉应用,因为它能够处理精细的材料,并产生具有更高经济价值的产品,而不需要原料团聚或高端还原剂。从本质上讲,这些熔炉的过程行为是动态的,过程团队必须应用严格的冶金过程控制原则,以保持熔炉的冶金条件在其操作范围内。此外,一些炉膛设计方面进一步影响了团队可用的控制措施。本文将重点研究直流电弧炉在精细废渣流处理中的应用,以不锈钢废污泥为例进行研究,并以技术为重点研究这些炉的固有特性和设计要求,以实现炉的稳定运行。
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引用次数: 0
Recycling of Mn-rich ore fines, dust and sludge briquettes in Mn alloys production 锰合金生产中富锰矿粉、粉尘和污泥型块的回收利用
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926126
Laure Diaz, N. Julia, A. Amalric, G. Nussbaum, Kåre Bjarte Bjelland
From mining operations to the production of metal alloys, mining and pyrometallurgical industries generate wastes such as sludge and dust. These manganese-rich co-products are currently mostly landfilled. Landfilling has an important impact, both environmentally and economically. ERAMET manganese alloy production plants and other metal industries seek to minimize those effects by recycling such co-products in the Submerged Arc Furnace (SAF). R&D work has been carried out to address this issue through briquetting agglomeration of manganese-rich co-products. These briquettes were used as raw material in the EXCALIBUR (Experimental Campaign of the Limit of Briquette Usage in Recycling) pilot campaign. It aimed at producing High Carbon Ferro Manganese (HCFeMn) in a pilot scale SAF. This study’s main objective is to assess the process stability during briquette recycling. Briquette quality was characterized by measuring fines formation and breakage during transport. Briquette recycling’s impact on the smelting process was quantified by dust generation, furnace stability and overall process performance. These briquette recycling tests in a pilot-scale SAF are part of the feasibility study of this process at an industrial scale.
从采矿作业到金属合金的生产,采矿和火法冶金工业产生污泥和粉尘等废物。这些富含锰的副产品目前大多被填埋。堆填区对环境和经济都有重要影响。ERAMET锰合金生产厂和其他金属工业试图通过在埋弧炉(SAF)中回收这些副产品来尽量减少这些影响。研发工作已开展,以解决这一问题,通过压块团聚富锰副产物。这些型煤作为原料,在EXCALIBUR(限制型煤回收使用的实验活动)试点活动中使用。它的目标是在一个中试规模的SAF生产高碳锰铁(HCFeMn)。本研究的主要目的是评估型煤回收过程的稳定性。通过测量输送过程中颗粒的形成和破碎程度来表征型煤的质量。从产尘量、炉膛稳定性和整体工艺性能三个方面量化了型煤回收对冶炼过程的影响。这些在中试规模SAF中进行的型煤回收试验是该工艺在工业规模上可行性研究的一部分。
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引用次数: 1
Some Carbon-Free Technologies for Manganese Ferroalloy Production 锰铁合金生产中的一些无碳技术
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926069
I. Kero, H. Dalaker, Karen Sende Osen, E. Ringdalen
To secure a future with the development of solar and wind energy, weather-safe roads and cities around the world, we must be able to produce metals in a safe, climate-neutral and responsible way. Obviously, we must prolong the lifespan of our materials, increase the efficiency of current processes, reuse and recycle what is already available, but that may not be enough. If we are to reach the global development goals, the world will most likely need new materials, including metals. There are many possible technologies that can help cut greenhouse gas emissions from the metallurgical industry, such as biocarbon and hydrogen as reducing agents but also electrolytic and metallothermic reduction routes and combinations of these solutions. Within each of these different themes, there are many technological possibilities. The current article gives an overview of the different alternatives to carbothermic reduction, i.e., describes the solutions which could potentially remove the need for carbon entirely. The discussion focuses on the possibilities, challenges, and the current technological barriers for these technologies to be applied to ferroalloy production.
为了确保未来的太阳能和风能、气候安全的道路和城市在世界各地得到发展,我们必须能够以安全、气候中和和负责任的方式生产金属。显然,我们必须延长材料的使用寿命,提高当前工艺的效率,再利用和回收现有的材料,但这可能还不够。如果我们要实现全球发展目标,世界很可能需要包括金属在内的新材料。有许多可能的技术可以帮助减少冶金工业的温室气体排放,例如生物碳和氢作为还原剂,还有电解和金属热还原途径以及这些解决方案的组合。在这些不同的主题中,有许多技术上的可能性。本文概述了碳热还原的不同替代方案,即描述了可能完全消除对碳的需求的解决方案。讨论的重点是这些技术应用于铁合金生产的可能性、挑战和目前的技术障碍。
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引用次数: 0
Benchmarking of FeNi Electric Arc Furnace Operations for Developing Furnace Design Parameters for Lateritic Ores in the Intermediate SiO2/MgO Range of between 2.2 and 2.7 FeNi电弧炉操作对SiO2/MgO介于2.2 ~ 2.7之间红土矿炉设计参数制定的基准
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926636
P. Palovaara, Sauli Pisila, Matti Sakaranaho, Mikaela Lindvall, J. Tikka
An extensive benchmarking study was conducted to establish the design for a circular 3-electrode electric furnace of 55MW for smelting of nickel saprolitic laterite ores in the intermediate SiO2/MgO range of 2.2-2.7. The investigation was focused on “intermediate slags” in the compositional range of 15-25% FeO, 0-5% Al2O3 and a SiO2/MgO ratio of 2.2-2.7. Industrial furnace references, operating at SiO2/MgO ratios of <2.2 and >2.7, were reviewed as basis for the design. It was found that slag superheats of up to 200°C is needed when producing high grade ferronickel. The bath resistance was estimated to 9-18mOhm and the operational resistance at shielded arc conditions to 35-55mOhm (Parc/Pbath ratios of 2.0-3.0), corresponding to a secondary voltage in the range of 1400-1750V. From the risk mitigation point of view due to slag characteristics, the furnace design was not limited to operation in shielded arc mode solely, but also towards brush arc operation. At the selected hearth power density of ~200 kW/m2 a wide operation window (Parc/Pbath ratio 1.0-2.6) was found manageable to realize freeze lining control at the estimated peak sidewall heat flux of maximum 165kW/m2. A fit for purpose conservative design approach was defined, aligned with industrial references as well as the latest furnace technology developments in intensive copper cooling elements and power stabilization system, which provides a sound basis for the proposed approach.
通过广泛的对标研究,确定了55MW圆形三极电炉的设计方案,用于冶炼SiO2/MgO介于2.2 ~ 2.7之间的镍腐石质红土矿石。研究的重点是“中间渣”,其组成范围为15-25% FeO, 0-5% Al2O3, SiO2/MgO比值为2.2-2.7。在SiO2/MgO比为2.7的情况下,对工业炉的参考资料进行了回顾,作为设计的依据。研究发现,在生产高品位镍铁时,炉渣过热温度需要达到200℃。槽电阻估计为9-18mOhm,屏蔽电弧条件下的工作电阻估计为35-55mOhm (Parc/Pbath比值为2.0-3.0),对应的二次电压范围为1400-1750V。从降低炉渣特性带来的风险的角度来看,该炉的设计不仅限于在屏蔽电弧模式下运行,还应考虑电刷电弧运行。在选定的炉膛功率密度为~ 200kw /m2时,宽操作窗口(Parc/Pbath比1.0-2.6)可实现冻结衬里控制,估计侧壁热流峰值最大为165kW/m2。根据工业参考和最新的炉体技术发展,在密集铜冷却元件和电力稳定系统中定义了适合目的的保守设计方法,这为提出的方法提供了良好的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Carbide formation and accumulation in SiMn furnaces SiMn炉中碳化物的形成和积累
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926154
Vincent Canaguier, Jonas E Gjøvik, E. Ringdalen
Recent excavations of Norwegian medium size SiMn furnaces have revealed spectacular amounts of carbide-rich materials accumulating on the sidewalls. In an excavated furnace from Eramet Kvinesdal, producing a 19%Si silicomanganese alloy prior shutdown, the sidewall materials contained silicon carbide in addition to SiMn alloy, slag and carbon. This contrasts with the large amounts of titanium carbides found in a furnace from Ferroglobe (Glencore then) which was producing 16%Si silicomanganese. The significant volume occupied by the carbides is likely to affect the flow of materials as well as furnace operation. It is therefore meaningful to understand how and when those carbides can form, especially concerning titanium carbide given the low content of titanium (about 0.3%) in the raw materials. The present study investigates the conditions under which TiC and SiC can appear in the furnace. Slag, alloy, and gas compositions were chosen to mimic industrial charges and were reacted between 1450 and 1650 °C. The reacted samples were further analysed by electron probe microanalysis with wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EPMA/WDS). Thermodynamic calculations were conducted using FactSage 8.0 and used for further reflection. The results indicate that TiC was formed by both precipitation and chemical reaction.
最近对挪威中型SiMn炉的挖掘显示,大量的富含碳化物的材料积聚在侧壁上。在Eramet Kvinesdal的一座挖掘炉中,在关闭前生产了19%硅锰合金,侧壁材料除了含有硅锰合金外,还含有碳化硅、炉渣和碳。这与铁地球公司(当时的嘉能可)的一个熔炉中发现的大量碳化钛形成对比,该熔炉生产的硅锰含量为16%。碳化物所占据的大量体积可能会影响物料的流动以及炉子的运行。因此,了解这些碳化物是如何以及何时形成的是有意义的,特别是考虑到原料中钛含量低(约0.3%)的碳化钛。本研究探讨了TiC和SiC在炉内析出的条件。选择炉渣、合金和气体组成来模拟工业电荷,并在1450至1650°C之间进行反应。用波长色散x射线能谱(EPMA/WDS)对反应样品进行了电子探针微量分析。热力学计算使用FactSage 8.0进行,并用于进一步反射。结果表明,TiC是由沉淀和化学反应共同形成的。
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引用次数: 1
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