Abstract Janet Yellen, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, intimated that the official unemployment rate (U3) is an inadequate measure of labor market slack when she highlighted the “possibility… that labor market slack is not appropriately measured by the civilian unemployment rate” (2019). Thus, we explore the difference between U3 and a more inclusive estimate of unemployment, U6, in order to understand the extent to which U3 misinforms the public, policy makers, and researchers.We find that the gap varies substantially over the business cycle and especially so for the most vulnerable – minorities, youth, and the less educated. This is because these groups are most likely to work part-time involuntarily the longest after the end of a recession and therefore bear the brunt of the burden of its lingering impact for many years thereafter. For African Americans, for instance, it took 7 years and 4 months longer for the recession of 1990/1991 to end. After the Great Recession the Hispanic gap also remained at an elevated level of 10 percentage points from October 2009 through June 2013. In January 2011 U6 climbed to 47.5% among African American youth and the U6-U3 gap was 18 percentage points and was similarly large among African Americans without a high-school diploma. In other words, not only does U3 mislead but the degree to which it does so varies greatly by ethnic group. JEL Classifications: J40, J49, J69 Unemployment, U6, African American unemployment, Hispanic unemployment discouraged workers, labor market slack
{"title":"Trends and Cycles in U.S. Labor-Market Slack, 1994–2019","authors":"J. Komlos","doi":"10.3790/aeq.65.3.209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.65.3.209","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 Janet Yellen, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, intimated that the official unemployment rate (U3) is an inadequate measure of labor market slack when she highlighted the “possibility… that labor market slack is not appropriately measured by the civilian unemployment rate” (2019). Thus, we explore the difference between U3 and a more inclusive estimate of unemployment, U6, in order to understand the extent to which U3 misinforms the public, policy makers, and researchers.We find that the gap varies substantially over the business cycle and especially so for the most vulnerable – minorities, youth, and the less educated. This is because these groups are most likely to work part-time involuntarily the longest after the end of a recession and therefore bear the brunt of the burden of its lingering impact for many years thereafter. For African Americans, for instance, it took 7 years and 4 months longer for the recession of 1990/1991 to end. After the Great Recession the Hispanic gap also remained at an elevated level of 10 percentage points from October 2009 through June 2013. In January 2011 U6 climbed to 47.5% among African American youth and the U6-U3 gap was 18 percentage points and was similarly large among African Americans without a high-school diploma. In other words, not only does U3 mislead but the degree to which it does so varies greatly by ethnic group.\u0000 JEL Classifications: J40, J49, J69\u0000 Unemployment, U6, African American unemployment, Hispanic unemployment discouraged workers, labor market slack","PeriodicalId":325774,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 65, Issue 3","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127274833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The aim of the paper is to analyse if and in which way specialization, geographical localization and spill-over effects affect resilience. The research is carried out using LLMAs (Local Labor Market Areas) as observational unit and spatial data analysis techniques (Anselin 1999, LeSage & Pace, 2009) in Italy. Resilience literature focalized its attention on regions. Despite this, there is no general agreement regarding the most appropriate observation unit. Our aim is not only to investigate the relationship between specialization and resilience at smaller scale using the LLMAs as observation unit but also to explore the spatial relationship among them. Results highlight a strong spatial correlation among LLMAs. As consequence resilience is not only influenced by specialization but also by geographical localization through spill-over effects. JEL Classifications: R10, R12, C23, C33 Spatial analysis; Resilience; Labor Market Area; Italy
{"title":"Analyzing Resilience in Local Labor Market Areas: A Spatial Analysis for the Case of Italy","authors":"B. Martini, M. Platania","doi":"10.3790/aeq.65.3.189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.65.3.189","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 The aim of the paper is to analyse if and in which way specialization, geographical localization and spill-over effects affect resilience. The research is carried out using LLMAs (Local Labor Market Areas) as observational unit and spatial data analysis techniques (Anselin 1999, LeSage & Pace, 2009) in Italy. Resilience literature focalized its attention on regions. Despite this, there is no general agreement regarding the most appropriate observation unit. Our aim is not only to investigate the relationship between specialization and resilience at smaller scale using the LLMAs as observation unit but also to explore the spatial relationship among them. Results highlight a strong spatial correlation among LLMAs. As consequence resilience is not only influenced by specialization but also by geographical localization through spill-over effects.\u0000 JEL Classifications: R10, R12, C23, C33\u0000 Spatial analysis; Resilience; Labor Market Area; Italy","PeriodicalId":325774,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 65, Issue 3","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115192015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The paper examines the relation between military expenditure and three growth and development related variables (GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and Industry Value Added growth) in 31 transition economies during the 1985–2018 period and in a series of different samples by applying the Panel VAR GMM methodology. The empirical results reveal different patterns of the significant association between military expenditure and the examined growth and development variables, which is positive for certain samples and negative for others. The causality analysis shows that in the vast majority of the cases, the causality direction runs from military expenditure towards the examined growth and development related variables. In addition, the analysis provides uniform evidence on certain positive impacts of defense expenditure on population growth and schooling and negative impacts on savings. The results from the Ex-Soviet Economies are of particular interest as the association between military expenditure and the examined growth-related variables, becomes positive. We interpret the results in the context of the wider characteristics of the particular geographical area. JEL Classifications: H50, H56 Transition Economies, Transition, Military Expenditure, Economic growth, GDP per capita, Industry Value Added
摘要本文运用Panel VAR GMM方法，考察了1985-2018年期间31个转型经济体和一系列不同样本的军费支出与三个增长和发展相关变量(GDP增长、人均GDP增长和工业增加值增长)之间的关系。实证结果揭示了军费开支与所审查的增长和发展变量之间显著关联的不同模式，这对某些样本是积极的，对其他样本是消极的。因果关系分析表明，在绝大多数情况下，因果关系的方向是从军事开支到所审查的增长和发展相关变量。此外，分析还提供了统一的证据，证明国防费对人口增长和学校教育有一定的积极影响，对储蓄有一定的消极影响。前苏联经济体的结果特别令人感兴趣，因为军事开支与所审查的与增长有关的变量之间的联系是正的。我们在特定地理区域的更广泛特征的背景下解释结果。JEL分类:H50, H56转型经济，转型，军费开支，经济增长，人均GDP，工业增加值
{"title":"Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Development in Transition Economies: A Panel VAR GMM Approach","authors":"Sotirios K. Bellos","doi":"10.3790/aeq.65.3.139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.65.3.139","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 The paper examines the relation between military expenditure and three growth and development related variables (GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and Industry Value Added growth) in 31 transition economies during the 1985–2018 period and in a series of different samples by applying the Panel VAR GMM methodology. The empirical results reveal different patterns of the significant association between military expenditure and the examined growth and development variables, which is positive for certain samples and negative for others. The causality analysis shows that in the vast majority of the cases, the causality direction runs from military expenditure towards the examined growth and development related variables. In addition, the analysis provides uniform evidence on certain positive impacts of defense expenditure on population growth and schooling and negative impacts on savings. The results from the Ex-Soviet Economies are of particular interest as the association between military expenditure and the examined growth-related variables, becomes positive. We interpret the results in the context of the wider characteristics of the particular geographical area.\u0000 JEL Classifications: H50, H56\u0000 Transition Economies, Transition, Military Expenditure, Economic growth, GDP per capita, Industry Value Added","PeriodicalId":325774,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 65, Issue 3","volume":"5 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124448280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper is the first attempt to empirically test the relationship between homeownership and business start-up by putting emphasis on the characteristics of both homeowners and firms. It relies on the fact that the firm size is relevant when considering the relationship between homeownership (outright or with mortgage) and new enterprises (small-sized or medium- and large-sized). A cross-section analysis of Italy supports our hypothesis that firm size matters in estimating the actual effect of homeownership on business start-up: Homeownership has a negative effect on large-sized business start-up; in contrast, outright homeownership has a positive effect on small business start-up, whereas homeownership with mortgage payments has a negative effect only on small business start-up. Theoretical explanations are also provided. JEL Classifications: C31, L25, L26, M13, R21, R31 firm size, business start-up, homeownership
{"title":"Does Firm Size Matter? The Impact of Homeownership on Business Start-up in Italy","authors":"Gaetano Lisi","doi":"10.3790/aeq.65.3.237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.65.3.237","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 This paper is the first attempt to empirically test the relationship between homeownership and business start-up by putting emphasis on the characteristics of both homeowners and firms. It relies on the fact that the firm size is relevant when considering the relationship between homeownership (outright or with mortgage) and new enterprises (small-sized or medium- and large-sized). A cross-section analysis of Italy supports our hypothesis that firm size matters in estimating the actual effect of homeownership on business start-up: Homeownership has a negative effect on large-sized business start-up; in contrast, outright homeownership has a positive effect on small business start-up, whereas homeownership with mortgage payments has a negative effect only on small business start-up. Theoretical explanations are also provided.\u0000 JEL Classifications: C31, L25, L26, M13, R21, R31\u0000 firm size, business start-up, homeownership","PeriodicalId":325774,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 65, Issue 3","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129805348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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