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CONSTRUCTION AND INFERENCES OF THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER IN ELLIPTICAL MODELS 椭圆模型有效边界的构造与推论
Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.193
Taras Bodnar, Arjun K. Gupta
In this paper, we construct a confidence region for the efficient frontier assuming the asset returns to be matrix elliptically contoured distributed. Our results extend the findings of Bodnar and Schmid (2009) to the non-normal distributed asset returns. In order to correct the overoptimism of the sample efficient frontier documented in Siegel and Woodgate (2007), the unbiased estimator of the efficient frontier is suggested. Moreover, we derive an exact overall F -test for the efficient frontier in elliptical models.
本文假设资产收益为矩阵椭圆型分布,构造了有效边界的置信区域。我们的研究结果将Bodnar和Schmid(2009)的发现扩展到非正态分布的资产收益。为了纠正在Siegel和Woodgate(2007)中记录的样本有效边界的过度乐观,提出了有效边界的无偏估计量。此外,我们还导出了椭圆模型中有效边界的一个精确的整体F检验。
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引用次数: 11
PREDICTIVE CREDIBLE REGION FOR BAYESIAN DIAGNOSIS OF A HYPOTHESIS 假设贝叶斯诊断的预测可信区域
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.111
T. Yanagimoto, Toshio Ohnishi
AB ayesian method for diagnosing a hypothesis is proposed in terms of the optimum Bayesian predictor under the e-divergence loss. We introduce a predictive credible region as a modified version of a posterior credible region. The predictive credible region is closely related to the complement of the rejection region of the likelihood ratio test in the frequentist context. As an application we revisit the controversy regarding Lindley’s paradox, and observe satisfactory performance of the proposed credible region in contrast to the Bayes factor. Another important application concerns a method for analyzing additional evidence when a hypothesis is once rejected.
根据e散度损失下的最优贝叶斯预测器,提出了诊断假设的AB贝叶斯方法。我们引入了一个预测可信区域作为后验可信区域的改进版本。在频域环境下,预测可信区域与似然比检验的拒绝区域的补足密切相关。作为一个应用,我们重新审视了关于林德利悖论的争议,并观察到与贝叶斯因子相比,所提出的可信区域具有令人满意的性能。另一个重要的应用涉及当假设被拒绝时分析额外证据的方法。
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引用次数: 2
Joint Estimation of Discretely Observed Stable Lévy Processes with Symmetric Lévy Density 具有对称lsamvy密度的离散观测稳定lsamvy过程的联合估计
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.49
Hiroki Masuda
the unusual rate of convergence diag{√n log(1/hn), √ n, √ nh 1−1/α n }, but the Fisher information matrix is constantly singular as soon as both α and σ are unknown. This implies that the standard asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator breaks down, and also that it is in no way obvious whether or not existing results concerning estimators of the stable law in the usual case where hn ≡ h > 0 can maintain the same asymptotic behaviors. In this note we will provide easily computable full-joint estimators of the parameters, which possess asymptotic normality with a finite and nondegenerate asymptotic covariance matrix, thereby enabling us to construct a joint confidence region of the three parameters: the rate of convergence of our estimators of θ is diag( √ n, √ n, √ nh 1−1/α n ). Especially, we clarify that a suitable sample-median type statistic γn serves as a rate-efficient estimator of the location γ, and that our procedure of estimating the remaining two parameters is not asymptotically influenced by plugging in γn, even if the convergence rate of γn is slower than the other two (namely, even if α ∈ (1, 2)). Finite-sample behaviors of our estimators are investigated through several simulation experiments.
不寻常的收敛速度为{√n log(1/hn),√n,√nh 1−1/α n},但只要α和σ都是未知的,Fisher信息矩阵就一直是奇异的。这意味着极大似然估计量的标准渐近行为被破坏,并且在hn≡h > 0的通常情况下,关于稳定律估计量的现有结果是否能保持相同的渐近行为是不明显的。在这篇文章中,我们将提供易于计算的参数的全联合估计量,它们具有有限且非退化的渐近协方差矩阵的渐近正态性,从而使我们能够构造三个参数的联合置信区域:θ估计量的收敛速度为diag(√n,√n,√nh 1−1/α n)。特别是,我们明确了一个合适的样本中位数型统计量γn作为位置γ的速率有效估计量,并且我们估计其余两个参数的过程不受插入γn的渐近影响,即使γn的收敛速度比其他两个慢(即,即使α∈(1,2)))。通过几个仿真实验研究了我们的估计器的有限样本行为。
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引用次数: 26
Bayesian Estimation of an Asymmetric Employment Adjustment Model 非对称就业调整模型的贝叶斯估计
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.29
A. Matsumoto, Hisayuki Hara, K. Nawata
In this paper, we analyze the dynamic labor demand structure of large Japanese firms. We propose a new dynamic model which explicitly considers the asymmetric behavior of the firms between decreasing and increasing regimes. The model modifies the ordinary partial adjustment and switching cost models. The model is a Tobit-type model; that is, the employment strategies and desired levels of labor are determined by latent variables. We estimate the model using the data augmentation algorithm, which is a Bayesian simulation method. We apply the model to the panel data constructed from financial reports of large Japanese manufacturing firms. When asymmetric adjustment costs are included in the model, we find that: i) the hiring cost does not become lower even if lay-offs and dismissals are easier, and ii) employment strategies differ among the industrial sectors even if their cost structures are similar.
本文分析了日本大型企业的动态劳动力需求结构。我们提出了一个新的动态模型,该模型明确考虑了企业在减少和增加制度之间的不对称行为。该模型对普通的部分调整和切换成本模型进行了修正。模型为tobit型模型;也就是说,就业策略和期望的劳动水平是由潜在变量决定的。我们使用数据增强算法估计模型,这是一种贝叶斯模拟方法。我们将该模型应用于日本大型制造企业财务报告的面板数据。当模型中包含非对称调整成本时,我们发现:1)即使裁员和解雇更容易,雇佣成本也不会降低;2)即使成本结构相似,产业部门之间的雇佣策略也会有所不同。
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引用次数: 1
OBSERVATION SUBAREA DECISION AND POPULATION DENSITY ESTIMATION BY SPACE SCALE-INVARIANCE 基于空间尺度不变性的观测分区决策与人口密度估计
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.77
H. Kishino
In this paper, we consider the estimation problem of the population density of organisms in an area. We formulate this biometric problem as a variant of the sequential estimation problem of the intensity of the Poisson process and propose a method for simultaneously optimizing both the decision of an observation subarea and the estimation. By request from the application side, we define the equivariance of a procedure composed of a decision rule of an observation subarea and an estimator of population density under the scale transformations of an observation area, and then construct a scale-equivariant procedure. As a result of using the invariance principle, we utilize the framework of statistical decision theory, not the conventional framework of sequential estimation using asymptotic methods, and discuss the admissibility and minimaxity of our proposed procedure.
本文研究了一个区域内生物种群密度的估计问题。我们将这一生物特征问题表述为泊松过程强度序列估计问题的一个变体,并提出了一种同时优化观测子区域的决策和估计的方法。根据应用方的要求,定义了观测区域尺度变换下由观测子区域决策规则和人口密度估计量组成的过程的等方差,构造了一个尺度等方差过程。由于使用了不变性原理,我们利用了统计决策理论的框架,而不是使用渐近方法的序列估计的传统框架,并讨论了我们提出的过程的可容许性和极小性。
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引用次数: 0
Design and Inference for Discriminating Between Two Competing Linear Regression Models 判别两种竞争线性回归模型的设计与推理
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.15
Subir Ghosh, J. López–Fidalgo, Rupam Pal
The problem of discriminating between two competing simple linear regression models MI and MII is discussed in this paper. The model MI is nested within the model MII with a common linear term being present in both models with respect to an explanatory variable and an additional quadratic term with respect to the same explanatory variable being present in MII. The first criterion function for discrimination between MI and MII is in terms of minimizing the variance of the least squares estimated coefficient of the quadratic term. A lower bound is obtained for this variance. Two designs are presented satisfying this lower bound in two experimental regions. New criterion functions of discriminating between MI and MII are given based on maximizing the difference between the fitted values of n observations under MI and MII and maximizing the difference between the predicted values under MI and MII. Several results are obtained for demonstrating the performances of these designs under two new criterion functions. We also present five general classes of designs and demonstrate their sharp relative performances with respect to our criterion functions. Some results for discriminating between two competing general linear models MIII and MIV are also given.
本文讨论了两个相互竞争的简单线性回归模型MI和MII的判别问题。模型MI嵌套在模型MII中,两个模型中都有一个关于解释变量的公共线性项,以及一个关于MII中存在的相同解释变量的附加二次项。区分MI和MII的第一个准则函数是最小化二次项的最小二乘估计系数的方差。得到了该方差的下界。在两个实验区域内提出了两种满足该下界的设计。基于最大n个观测值在MI和MII下的拟合值之差和最大MI和MII下预测值之差,给出了新的判别MI和MII的判据函数。在两种新的准则函数下,得到了一些结果来证明这些设计的性能。我们还提出了五种一般类型的设计,并展示了它们相对于我们的准则函数的明显相对性能。给出了两种相互竞争的一般线性模型MIII和MIV的判别结果。
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引用次数: 0
A POSITIVE DETECTING ALGORITHM FOR DNA LIBRARY SCREENING BASED ON CCCP 基于CCCP的DNA文库筛选阳性检测算法
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.89
Hiroaki Uehara, Masakazu Jimbo
We describe an algorithm for extracting as much information as possible from pooling experiments for library screening based on the concave-convex procedure (CCCP). Called the CCCP pool result decoder (CCPD), it is a positive clone de- tecting algorithm. Its performance is compared, by simulation, with the Bayesian network pool result decoder (BNPD) proposed by Uehara and Jimbo and the Markov chain pool result decoder (MCPD) proposed by Knill et al. in 1996. To find a few positives among a large number of items, one can use group testing. In group testing, multiple items are assayed in groups. If a group has a negative outcome, all items contained in it are negative. This can reduce the total number of tests. On the other hand, if a group is positive, we know that the group contains at least one positive item. By designing many kinds of groups and by testing each of them, we obtain the results for all groups. After knowing the group results, we may be able to estimate which items are likely to be positive. For each of such items, we apply individual tests to determine whether it is positive or negative. Group testing has been used in medical, chemical, and electrical testing; drug screening; pollution control; multiaccess channel communication; and recently in gene assays like clone library screening, protein-protein interaction tests, and other subjects. See for example Du and Hwang (1999), Schliep and Rahmann (2006), Thierry-Mieg (2006), Klau et al. (2007), Thierry-Mieg and Bailly (2008). In this paper we restrict ourselves to group testing for DNA library screening to give a concrete image of testing and to consider a specialized problem in clone library screening. However, the algorithm given in this paper can be applied to any other fields of group testing. In DNA library screening experiments there are a large number of clones, which are short strings of nucleotides A, T, G and C. Through the use of high-quality gene libraries, the study of gene functions has been developed into a very important research field. The gene libraries are obtained from extensive testing and screening of DNA clones. For each clone,
我们描述了一种基于凹凸过程(CCCP)的从池化实验中提取尽可能多的信息用于图书馆筛选的算法。CCCP池结果解码器(CCPD)是一种正克隆检测算法。通过仿真,将其性能与Uehara和Jimbo提出的贝叶斯网络池结果解码器(BNPD)和Knill等人1996年提出的马尔可夫链池结果解码器(MCPD)进行了比较。为了在大量的项目中找到一些阳性的,可以使用群体测试。在分组测试中,多个项目被分组分析。如果一个组的结果是否定的,那么其中包含的所有项都是否定的。这可以减少测试的总数。另一方面,如果一个组是正的,我们知道这个组至少包含一个正的元素。通过设计多种组,并对每个组进行测试,得到了所有组的结果。在知道分组结果之后,我们可能能够估计哪些项目可能是积极的。对于每一个这样的项目,我们应用单独的测试来确定它是阳性还是阴性。在医疗、化学和电气测试中使用了分组测试;药物筛选;污染控制;多址信道通信;最近在基因分析,如克隆文库筛选,蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用测试,和其他科目。参见Du and Hwang (1999), Schliep and Rahmann (2006), Thierry-Mieg (2006), Klau et al. (2007), Thierry-Mieg and Bailly(2008)。本文将DNA文库筛选限定为群体检测,以给出具体的检测形象,并考虑克隆文库筛选中的一个专门问题。然而,本文给出的算法可以应用于群测试的任何其他领域。在DNA文库筛选实验中存在大量的克隆,这些克隆是核苷酸a、T、G和c的短链,通过使用高质量的基因库,基因功能的研究已经发展成为一个非常重要的研究领域。基因库是从DNA克隆的广泛测试和筛选中获得的。对于每一个克隆体,
{"title":"A POSITIVE DETECTING ALGORITHM FOR DNA LIBRARY SCREENING BASED ON CCCP","authors":"Hiroaki Uehara, Masakazu Jimbo","doi":"10.14490/JJSS.39.89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14490/JJSS.39.89","url":null,"abstract":"We describe an algorithm for extracting as much information as possible from pooling experiments for library screening based on the concave-convex procedure (CCCP). Called the CCCP pool result decoder (CCPD), it is a positive clone de- tecting algorithm. Its performance is compared, by simulation, with the Bayesian network pool result decoder (BNPD) proposed by Uehara and Jimbo and the Markov chain pool result decoder (MCPD) proposed by Knill et al. in 1996. To find a few positives among a large number of items, one can use group testing. In group testing, multiple items are assayed in groups. If a group has a negative outcome, all items contained in it are negative. This can reduce the total number of tests. On the other hand, if a group is positive, we know that the group contains at least one positive item. By designing many kinds of groups and by testing each of them, we obtain the results for all groups. After knowing the group results, we may be able to estimate which items are likely to be positive. For each of such items, we apply individual tests to determine whether it is positive or negative. Group testing has been used in medical, chemical, and electrical testing; drug screening; pollution control; multiaccess channel communication; and recently in gene assays like clone library screening, protein-protein interaction tests, and other subjects. See for example Du and Hwang (1999), Schliep and Rahmann (2006), Thierry-Mieg (2006), Klau et al. (2007), Thierry-Mieg and Bailly (2008). In this paper we restrict ourselves to group testing for DNA library screening to give a concrete image of testing and to consider a specialized problem in clone library screening. However, the algorithm given in this paper can be applied to any other fields of group testing. In DNA library screening experiments there are a large number of clones, which are short strings of nucleotides A, T, G and C. Through the use of high-quality gene libraries, the study of gene functions has been developed into a very important research field. The gene libraries are obtained from extensive testing and screening of DNA clones. For each clone,","PeriodicalId":326924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japan Statistical Society. Japanese issue","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129887731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ON THE EFFICIENCIES OF SECOND ORDER RESPONSE SURFACE DESIGNS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF RESPONSES AND SLOPES USING SYMMETRICAL UNEQUAL BLOCK ARRANGEMENTS WITH TWO UNEQUAL BLOCK SIZES 二阶响应面设计的效率:用两个不等块大小的对称不等块排列估计响应和斜率
Pub Date : 2009-07-31 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.39.1
B. Victorbabu, V. Vasundharadevi
In this paper, the efficiencies of various second order response surface designs, like second order rotatable designs (SORD), second order slope rotatable designs (SOSRD), SORDs with an equi-spaced doses design, and SOSRDs with an equispaced doses design using symmetrical unequal block arrangements (SUBA) with two unequal block sizes, are studied for the estimation of responses and slopes at different points (central, axial, cube corner points) on second order response surface designs. The study is done because in some cases a SORD, and SOSRD constructed by using a SUBA with two unequal block sizes have fewer design points compared to those constructed by other methods.
本文研究了二阶响应面设计的效率,如二阶可旋转设计(SORD)、二阶斜率可旋转设计(SOSRD)、等间距剂量设计(SORD)和采用两个不等块大小的对称不等块排列(SUBA)的等间距剂量设计(SOSRD),用于估计二阶响应面设计中不同点(中心点、轴点、立方体角点)的响应和斜率。之所以进行这项研究,是因为在某些情况下,使用两个不相等块大小的SUBA构建的SORD和SOSRD与使用其他方法构建的SOSRD相比具有更少的设计点。
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引用次数: 1
DONSKER'S THEOREM FOR DISCRETIZED DATA 离散数据的Donsker定理
Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.38.505
Y. Nishiyama
Inspired by Doob’s suggestion in 1949, Donsker (1952) proved the Kolmogorov-Smirnov theorem in an elegant way via the functional central limit theorem (the invariance principle). In that theorem, the underlying distribution is assumed to be a continuous distribution. On the other hand, real data in practice is always given in a discretized (rounded) form. In this paper, we establish an invariance principle for discretized data in the fashion of the modern empirical process theory to obtain a (right) Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discretized data. To illustrate our problem let us begin with the most basic example. We denote by F0 the uniform distribution on [0, 1]. Let {X1, . . . , Xn} be an independent sequence of [0, 1]-valued random variables with the common law F0. Set δn = 0.01. Suppose that we can actually observe the data {X i } which is discretized (rounded) up to δn: X1 = 0.67774205 X 1 = 0.68 X2 = 0.81124449 X 2 = 0.81 · · · Xn = 0.61694806 X n = 0.62. We denote by F̂n and F̂ n the empirical distribution functions of {X1, . . . , Xn} and {X 1 , . . . , X n}, respectively. Then, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic Dn = sup t∈[0,1] n|F̂n(t) − F0(t)| converges in distribution to supu∈[0,1] |B◦(u)|, where u ❀ B◦(u) is a standard Brownian bridge. On the other hand, as we will show below, if δn = o(n −1/2), the test statistic D n = sup t∈[0,1] n|F̂ n(t) − F0(t)|
Donsker(1952)在1949年受到Doob建议的启发,通过泛函中心极限定理(不变性原理)以一种优雅的方式证明了Kolmogorov-Smirnov定理。在这个定理中,底层分布被假设为连续分布。另一方面,实际数据总是以离散(四舍五入)的形式给出。本文采用现代经验过程理论的方法,建立了离散数据的不变性原理,得到了离散数据的(正确的)Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验。为了说明我们的问题,让我们从最基本的例子开始。我们用F0表示[0,1]上的均匀分布。设{X1,…, Xn}为具有公律F0的[0,1]个随机变量的独立序列。设δn = 0.01。假设我们实际上可以观察到离散(四舍五入)到δn的数据{X i}: X1 = 0.67774205 X1 = 0.68 X2 = 0.81124449 X2 = 0.81···Xn = 0.61694806 Xn = 0.62。我们用F n和F n表示{X1,…的经验分布函数。, Xn}和{X 1,…, X n}。然后,Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计量Dn = sup t∈[0,1]n|F∈n(t)−F0(t)|在分布上收敛到supu∈[0,1]|B◦(u)|,其中u君- B◦(u)是一个标准布朗桥。另一方面,如下所示,如果δn = 0(n−1/2),则检验统计量D n = sup t∈[0,1]n|F n(t)−F0(t)|
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引用次数: 2
The Efficiency of the Asymptotic Expansion of the Distribution of the Canonical Vector under Nonnormality 正则向量分布在非正态下渐近展开式的有效性
Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.14490/JJSS.38.451
Tomoya Yamada
In canonical correlation analysis, canonical vectors are used in the interpretation of the canonical variables. We are interested in the asymptotic representation of the expectation, the variance and the distribution of the canonical vector. In this study, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the canonical vector under nonnormality. To obtain the asymptotic expansion of the canonical vector, we use a perturbation method. In addition, as an example, we show the asymptotic distribution with an elliptical population. In multivariate statistical analysis, the distributions of latent roots and latent vectors of certain symmetric matrices constructed from the sample covariance matrix are important in some cases and have been studied by many authors. These studies can be used as the basis for the canonical correlation analysis, which is an approach that characterizes the correlation structure between two sets of variables. Considering the distribution of the canonical correlation with the assumption of the multivariate normal population, asymptotic expansions of the distributions were studied by Sugiura (1976), Fujikoshi (1977, 1978), Muirhead (1978) and others. The distributions of a function of latent roots of the sample covariance matrix in nonnormal populations were studied by Fujikoshi (1980), Muirhead and Waternaux (1980), Fang and Krishinaiah (1982), Siotani et al. (1985), Seo et al. (1994) and others. The distribution of the canonical vector was studied by Eaton and Tyler (1994), Boik (1998), Anderson (1999), Taskinen et al. (2006) and others. This paper deals with the asymptotic expansion of the canonical vector under nonnormality. Let us denote x =( x � 1, x � 2) � as p + q dimensional variables with mean µ and
在典型相关分析中,典型向量用于解释典型变量。我们感兴趣的是期望的渐近表示,方差和正则向量的分布。本文给出了正则向量在非正态下的渐近分布。为了得到正则向量的渐近展开式,我们使用了摄动方法。此外,作为一个例子,我们给出了椭圆总体的渐近分布。在多元统计分析中,由样本协方差矩阵构造的对称矩阵的隐根和隐向量的分布在某些情况下是很重要的,许多作者已经对此进行了研究。这些研究可以作为典型相关分析的基础,典型相关分析是一种表征两组变量之间相关结构的方法。Sugiura(1976)、Fujikoshi(1977,1978)、Muirhead(1978)等人考虑到典型相关在多元正态总体假设下的分布,研究了典型相关分布的渐近展开。Fujikoshi(1980)、Muirhead和Waternaux(1980)、Fang和Krishinaiah(1982)、Siotani等人(1985)、Seo等人(1994)等研究了样本协方差矩阵潜根函数在非正态总体中的分布。典型向量的分布由Eaton and Tyler(1994)、Boik(1998)、Anderson(1999)、Taskinen et al.(2006)等人研究。本文讨论了正则向量在非正态下的渐近展开式。我们将x =(x′1,x′2)′表示为p + q维变量,其平均值为µand
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引用次数: 3
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Journal of the Japan Statistical Society. Japanese issue
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