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Modelling of Changes in Ship’s Operational Condition During Transportation of Oversized and Heavy Cargo 大型货物运输过程中船舶工况变化的建模
Pub Date : 2020-12-30 DOI: 10.15587/2706-5448.2020.221653
S. Onyshсhenko
The object of research is the operational condition of the ship and its changes that occur in the process of transportation of oversized and heavy cargo under the influence of multiple accidental events. A significant problem is the negative impact of the system of factors on seaworthiness and technical condition of the ship, the integrity of the cargo. Therefore, ensuring the safety of the ship, its functional reliability as a technical object is among the priorities which are extremely relevant in the process of transportation of oversized and heavy cargo.

In the course of the research the identification of the basic conditions of the surveyed ship in the process of operation was carried out. The ship in the process of transportation is defined as an aggregate of two objects – «ship – cargo». The decomposition of the stated condition into two variants «in norm» and «having problems», with three components: «seaworthiness of the ship», «technical condition of the ship», and «cargo and lashing systems». Six main operational conditions of the ship in the process of transportation of oversized and heavy cargo were established. The model of changes in the operational condition of the ship during the transportation of oversized and heavy cargo has been developed. This model enables to establish the relationship between these conditions, which are identified and formalized in the form of a single-ordered Markov process model. The process is considered as a process with a discrete time and the presence of a rotational condition with the absence of the property of ergodicity. Experimental investigations were carried out for various initial conditions and the most probable changes in the operational condition of the ship were determined for a specified number of hourly periods.

The proposed process model enables experimental investigations for various initial conditions and identification of the most probable changes in the ship’s operational condition through a specified number of hours. It allows to estimate risks and make decisions on support of ship’s operational condition during transportation of oversized and heavy cargo as a theoretical basis.
研究的对象是在多重意外事件的影响下,船舶在超大、重型货物运输过程中所发生的运行状态及其变化。一个重要的问题是各种因素对船舶的适航性和技术状态、货物的完整性的负面影响。因此,确保船舶的安全,其功能的可靠性作为一个技术对象是重中之重,这在超大和重型货物的运输过程中是极其重要的。在研究过程中,对被测船舶运行过程中的基本状态进行了识别。运输过程中的船舶被定义为两个物体的集合体——“船舶和货物”。将所述条件分解为“正常”和“有问题”两种变体,其中包含三个组成部分:“船舶适航性”,“船舶技术条件”和“货物和捆绑系统”。建立了船舶在运输超大、重型货物过程中的6个主要作业条件。建立了船舶在运输超大、重型货物过程中运行状态变化的模型。该模型能够建立这些条件之间的关系,并以单阶马尔可夫过程模型的形式进行识别和形式化。该过程被认为是一个具有离散时间的过程,并且存在一个不具有遍历性的旋转条件。对各种初始条件进行了实验调查,并在规定的小时数内确定了船舶操作条件的最可能变化。所提出的过程模型能够对各种初始条件进行实验研究,并通过指定的小时数确定船舶操作条件中最可能的变化。它可以作为理论依据,对船舶在超大、重型货物运输过程中的运行状况进行风险评估和决策支持。
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引用次数: 5
Does Partner Volatility Have Firm Value Relevance? An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Alliances 合伙人波动是否具有公司价值相关性?战略联盟的实证分析
Pub Date : 2019-10-20 DOI: 10.35611/jkt.2019.23.6.145
Han Yang, Sihyun Kim, Se-Won Kim, Dalwon Kang
Purpose – Alliance members have constantly revised market strategies over time by withdrawing membership from a current alliance, joining another alliance, or constructing a new alliance. From the perspective of the signaling effect, the purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of partner volatility (new member, old member, and new group) on firm value.

Design/methodology – To analyze the impact of partner volatility on firm value, companies in strategic alliances are classified into the three groups of new partner, existing partner, and new alliance, and the effects on company value are verified through an event study and the signaling effect analysis.

Findings – This study proved that new partners and newly formed strategic alliances have higher expectation effects than old partner company groups, and have a more positive effect on the relevant firms’ stock prices. In addition, the result of the study showed the same valid results as the alliance levels, and showed that investors’ expectations were higher with new partners and new alliances than with old partners.

Research Implications – A new perspective on the signaling effects of strategic alliances among shipping lines was presented in this study by grouping alliance types including new member, old member, and new group. The results provide useful insights for selecting partners and firm values of alliance announcement times.

Originality/value – This study analyzed partner volatility on relevant companies’ stock prices from the perspective of investors from the global shipping conference reorganization in 2017. Strategic alliances were classified into the three categories of new partner, old partner, and new alliance, and the effects on firm value were verified.
目的-联盟成员通过退出现有联盟、加入另一个联盟或建立新的联盟,不断调整市场战略。从信号效应的角度,本研究的目的是分析合伙人波动(新成员、老成员和新成员)对公司价值的影响。设计/方法-为了分析合作伙伴波动对公司价值的影响,将战略联盟中的公司分为新合作伙伴,现有合作伙伴和新联盟三组,并通过事件研究和信号效应分析验证对公司价值的影响。研究结果-本研究证明,新合作伙伴和新成立的战略联盟比老合作伙伴公司集团具有更高的预期效应,对相关公司的股价有更积极的影响。此外,研究结果显示与联盟水平相同的有效结果,表明投资者对新合作伙伴和新联盟的期望高于对旧合作伙伴的期望。研究启示-本研究通过对新成员、老成员和新成员的联盟类型进行分组,提出了对航运公司战略联盟信号效应的新视角。研究结果为联盟公告时间选择合作伙伴和企业价值观提供了有益的启示。原创性/价值——本研究从2017年全球航运大会重组的投资者角度,分析了合作伙伴波动对相关公司股价的影响。将战略联盟分为新伙伴、老伙伴和新联盟三类,并验证其对企业价值的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Electronic Bills of Lading: An Easier Way to Sea Carriage 电子提单:海上运输的捷径
Pub Date : 2015-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2707960
O. Ajaja
The starting point of any discuss on electronic bill of lading must as of necessity commence with the explanation of what a bill of lading is. A Bill of Lading is a document issued by, or on behalf of, a carrier or master to a sender, known as the shipper or consignor, which covers the carriage of goods destined to an ultimate receiver, known as the consignee. The bill of lading generally evidences the seller’s delivery of goods to an independent entity (the carrier) which takes over, inter alia, responsibility for the delivery to an ultimate buyer. The advancement of technology was the fulcrum upon which the electronic Bill of Lading lies. It is a recent development introduced to facilitate international trade and to reduce paper documents associated with international trade. The attendant complexities of modern day commerce have rendered obsolete the traditional means of transportation of goods over the sea as evidenced by a bill of lading. An electronic bill of lading is ordinarily the functional equivalent of a paper Bill of Lading. It clearly imitates the contents and functions of a paper bill of lading.The attendant relative novelty of this concept is the raison d'etre for this write up. The writer attempts to roll back the frontiers of ignorance by critically analysis and explaining what an Electronic Bill of Lading entails and its importance in this jet age.
任何关于电子提单的讨论都必须从解释提单是什么开始。提单是由承运人或船长签发或代表承运人或船长签发给发件人(称为托运人或发货人)的文件,它涵盖了运往最终接收者(称为收货人)的货物运输。提单一般证明卖方将货物交付给一个独立的实体(承运人),该实体除其他外,接管了将货物交付给最终买方的责任。技术的进步是电子提单的支点。这是最近的一项发展,旨在促进国际贸易和减少与国际贸易有关的纸质文件。伴随而来的现代商业的复杂性已经使以提单为凭证的传统海上货物运输方式过时了。电子提单通常在功能上等同于纸质提单。它明显模仿了纸质提单的内容和功能。这一概念的相对新颖性是本文存在的理由。作者试图通过批判性的分析和解释电子提单的必要性及其在这个喷气时代的重要性,来推翻无知的前沿。
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引用次数: 1
On Uncertain Ice: The Future of Arctic Shipping and the Northwest Passage 不确定的冰:北极航运和西北航道的未来
Pub Date : 2014-12-04 DOI: 10.11575/SPPP.V7I0.42493
Whitney Lackenbauer, Adam Lajeunesse
The Arctic sea-ice is in a state of rapid decline. Barriers to navigation that once doomed the likes of Sir John Franklin and closed the shortcut to the Orient now seem to be melting away. The prospect of shorter, transpolar transportation routes linking Asian and Western markets has inspired excitement and fear, and particularly the latter when it comes to Canadian sovereignty. This paper confirms recent studies suggesting that, in spite of the general trend towards reduced ice cover in the Arctic Basin, environmental variability, scarce infrastructure and other navigational aids, and uncertain economics make it unlikely that the Northwest Passage will emerge as a viable trans-shipping route in the foreseeable future. Instead, the region is likely to witness a steady increase in resource, resupply, and tourist destinational shipping. Accordingly, concerns that this increased activity will adversely affect Canadian sovereignty are misplaced. Rather than calling into question Canadian control, foreign vessels engaged in local activities are likely to reinforce Canada’s legal position by demonstrating an international acceptance of Canadian laws and regulations. Rather than worrying about the “sovereignty” ramifications of Arctic shipping, the Canadian government should focus its short – and medium – term energies on the practical requirements of developing and maintaining safe shipping routes. At the heart of this requirement is ensuring that such activity is beneficial to Inuit, whose traditional “highways” will double as transits routes for resource carriers and cruise liners. If developed with an eye to those most directly affected, Canada’s Arctic waters can become a well-managed route to an increasingly attractive region, making our Arctic a destination rather than mere space through which to pass.
北极海冰正处于迅速减少的状态。曾经让约翰•富兰克林爵士(Sir John Franklin)等人命途末路、关闭通往东方捷径的航海障碍,如今似乎正在消失。连接亚洲和西方市场的更短的跨极地运输路线的前景既令人兴奋又令人担忧,尤其是当涉及到加拿大主权时。本文证实了最近的研究表明,尽管北极盆地的冰层覆盖面积总体呈减少趋势,但环境变化、基础设施和其他导航设备的匮乏以及不确定的经济因素,使得西北航道在可预见的未来不太可能成为一条可行的转运路线。相反,该地区的资源、补给和旅游目的地航运可能会稳步增长。因此,担心这种增加的活动将对加拿大主权产生不利影响是多余的。从事当地活动的外国船只非但不会对加拿大的控制提出质疑,反而可能通过表明国际社会接受加拿大的法律法规来加强加拿大的法律地位。与其担心北极航运的“主权”后果,加拿大政府应该把短期和中期的精力集中在发展和维护安全航线的实际需求上。这一要求的核心是确保这种活动有利于因纽特人,他们的传统“公路”将成为资源运输船和邮轮的过境路线。如果在开发时考虑到那些最直接受影响的人,加拿大的北极水域可以成为一条管理良好的通道,通往一个越来越有吸引力的地区,使我们的北极成为一个目的地,而不仅仅是一个过境空间。
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引用次数: 8
The Pacific's Connectivity and Its Trade Implications 太平洋互联互通及其对贸易的影响
Pub Date : 2014-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2494771
Matthias Helble
Pacific economies are confronted with several structural constraints that limit their economic growth, most importantly their small size and remoteness from major world markets. In this paper we study the importance of transport connectivity for Pacific economies when participating in the world economy. The paper first describes the evolution of trade flows of the Pacific economies over the last decade, in terms of both trade in goods and services. It then introduces two new datasets. One contains all shipping connections within the Pacific and with the rest of the world; the second all flight connections within the Pacific and with the rest of the world. Combining both datasets with the corresponding trade flows allows us to assess the importance of connectivity for the Pacific's trade performance. Using a gravity model approach, we find that a direct shipping connection more than doubles trade in goods. Similarly, countries with direct flight connections to the sending country welcome twice as many tourists. The frequency of transport connections is similarly important. Using an instrumental variables approach we are able to confirm the robustness of our results.
太平洋经济体面临着限制其经济增长的若干结构性制约因素,最重要的是其面积小和远离世界主要市场。本文研究了太平洋经济体在参与世界经济的过程中,交通互联互通的重要性。本文首先从货物贸易和服务贸易两方面描述了过去十年太平洋经济体贸易流动的演变。然后介绍了两个新的数据集。一个包含太平洋内部和与世界其他地区的所有航运连接;第二个是太平洋内部和世界其他地区的所有航班连接。将这两个数据集与相应的贸易流量相结合,使我们能够评估连通性对太平洋地区贸易绩效的重要性。使用重力模型方法,我们发现直接航运连接使货物贸易增加了一倍以上。同样,与派遣国有直航联系的国家接待的游客数量是前者的两倍。运输连接的频率同样重要。使用工具变量的方法,我们能够确认我们的结果的稳健性。
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引用次数: 11
A Research Agenda for the Study of the Regulation of Invasive Species Introduced Unintentionally Via Maritime Trade 海洋贸易无意引入的入侵物种管制研究议程
Pub Date : 2004-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.560081
A. Batabyal
I propose a queuing theoretic research agenda for studying five questions about the effects that alternate invasive species control regulations have on consumers and producers in a nation such as the USA. The five questions are as follows. First, when can one justify a trade ban as an effective regulatory policy? Second, what are the attributes of credible pre-export certification schemes? Third, how does one determine the optimal number of inspectors in a stochastic context in which arriving ships may or may not be able to queue in a particular port? Fourth, should a port manager have a small number of inspectors inspect ships less stringently or should this manager have a large number of inspectors inspect ships more stringently? Finally, when should a port manager in (say) the USA use information about (i) the dollar value of the products being transported by ships from two exporting firms and (ii) the mean time it takes to inspect ships from these two firms to grant preferential treatment to one or the other exporting firm?
我提出了一个排队论的研究议程,以研究五个问题,即在美国这样的国家,入侵物种控制法规对消费者和生产者的影响。五个问题如下。首先,什么时候可以证明贸易禁令是一项有效的监管政策?其次,可信的出口前认证计划有哪些特点?第三,在一个随机环境中,到达的船只可能会或可能不会在特定港口排队,如何确定检查员的最佳数量?第四,港口管理者是应该让少量检查员对船舶进行不那么严格的检查,还是应该让大量检查员对船舶进行更严格的检查?最后,(比如说)美国的港口管理者何时应该使用以下信息:(1)由两家出口公司的船舶运输的产品的美元价值,(2)检查这两家公司的船舶所花费的平均时间,以给予其中一家或另一家出口公司优惠待遇?
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引用次数: 16
Responsibilities and Liabilities for Commercial Activity in the Artic: Introduction 在北极的商业活动的责任和义务:介绍
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3091136
A. Møllmann, Vibe Ulfbeck, Bent Ole Gram Mortensen
In recent years, there has been much focus on the Arctic. Thus, as the climate in the Arctic gets milder, new business opportunities arise. This is true both with regard to onshore and offshore activities. To oil companies, the prospect of being able to exploit the presumed large reserves of oil in the Arctic Ocean gives rise to consideration. Also, onshore mining has attracted interest. In Greenland, this includes mining of rare earth minerals, some of which can only be extracted by producing uranium as a by-product. Both offshore and onshore business activities will generate a number of related activities in support of the main activities. So will the general interest of the maritime transport sector in taking advantage of the shorter, arctic routes from Europe to Asia. Also tourism has the potential of becoming a prospering industry in the Arctic. Accordingly, also at a more general level, demands for goods, services and labour in the region must be expected to rise. Overall, climate change has given rise to an expectation of an increasing level of activity by private enterprises in the Arctic. However, with an increased level of activity also comes an increased level of risk that something will go wrong. For different reasons the realization of such risks in the Arctic may cause much greater damage than the realization of similar risks elsewhere. Thus, in many Arctic areas the economic survival of small local communities is dependent on the success of investment projects creating jobs and wealth for the inhabitants. If investments go wrong and turn out as failures, this may have profound negative impacts not only for the investor, but for society as a whole. Similarly, consequences of oil pollution at sea in the Arctic may well be much more far reaching than the consequences of similar accidents in other places. For example, it is a simple fact that the effects of oil pollution in the Arctic waters will last for longer than the effects of oil pollution elsewhere since the oil will not dissolve as easily in the cold Artic waters as elsewhere. In addition, large areas in the Arctic are only thinly populated and many areas are uninhabited and extremely difficult to get to. Thus, preventing, limiting and cleaning up after this type of incident poses special challenges. Given the magnitude and potential impacts of the realization of risks related to carrying out activities in the Arctic, the theme of ‘responsibility and liability’ calls for attention. The aim of this book is to explore these responsibility and liability issues.
近年来,北极问题备受关注。因此,随着北极气候变暖,新的商业机会出现了。陆上和海上活动都是如此。对于石油公司来说,能够开采北冰洋假定的巨大石油储量的前景引起了他们的考虑。此外,陆上采矿也引起了人们的兴趣。在格陵兰,这包括稀土矿物的开采,其中一些只能通过生产铀作为副产品来提取。离岸和在岸业务活动都将产生一些相关活动来支持主要活动。利用从欧洲到亚洲的较短的北极航线的海上运输部门的普遍利益也是如此。此外,旅游业有潜力成为北极地区蓬勃发展的产业。因此,在更普遍的层面上,预计该区域对商品、服务和劳动力的需求将会增加。总体而言,气候变化已使人们预期私营企业在北极的活动水平将不断提高。然而,随着活动量的增加,出现问题的风险也会增加。由于各种原因,在北极实现这种风险可能比在其他地方实现类似风险造成更大的破坏。因此,在许多北极地区,当地小社区的经济生存依赖于为居民创造就业和财富的投资项目的成功。如果投资出错并以失败告终,这不仅会对投资者,而且会对整个社会产生深远的负面影响。同样,北极海上石油污染的后果可能比其他地方类似事故的后果影响深远得多。例如,一个简单的事实是,北极水域的石油污染的影响将比其他地方的石油污染的影响持续更长时间,因为石油在寒冷的北极水域不像在其他地方那样容易溶解。此外,北极的大片地区人烟稀少,许多地区无人居住,极其难以到达。因此,预防、限制和清理这类事件提出了特殊的挑战。鉴于实现北极活动相关风险的规模和潜在影响,“责任和责任”这一主题值得关注。本书的目的是探讨这些责任和责任问题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
TransportRN: Maritime Transportation (Topic)
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