Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2020.913.247
Oumy Niass, A. Diongue, Philippe Saint-Pierre, A. Touré
In this study, we develop Three Markov models which are continuous time-homogeneous Model, time piecewise constant intensities Markov model and semi-Markov model with Weibull distribution as the waiting time distribution to evaluate malaria serology evolution. We consider two-state model describing antibody reactivity defined by immunologists. We discuss in detail the application of these models to identify relationships between malaria control program and serological measurements of malaria transmission
{"title":"Using Markov assumption with covariates to assess the Plasmodium falciparum malaria serological markers evolution","authors":"Oumy Niass, A. Diongue, Philippe Saint-Pierre, A. Touré","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2020.913.247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2020.913.247","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we develop Three Markov models which are continuous time-homogeneous Model, time piecewise constant intensities Markov model and semi-Markov model with \u0000Weibull distribution as the waiting time distribution to evaluate malaria serology evolution. We consider two-state model describing antibody reactivity defined by immunologists. \u0000We discuss in detail the application of these models to identify relationships between malaria control program and serological measurements of malaria transmission","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133739732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2020.883.246
D. Fogang, Jean Tchitchoua
This paper uses data from 10 countries of the African franc zone from 1996 to 2017, to gauge the effect of external debt on industrialization in the presence of non-linearity. Our analyzes are done based on two aspects. Firstly, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), our results show that there is a non-linear relationship between external debt and industrialization in the African franc zone, which depends on the level of the external debt stock, the threshold is $58.91 %$ of GDP. While before this threshold, external debt has no direct effect on industrialization, after this threshold it is harmful to it. Secondly, an analysis in two periods (1996-2006 and 2007-2017) by the GLS and SUR methods shows that before 2006, the external debt was an asset for industrialization but after, it gave way to domestic credit. Thus, the external debt has become obsolete after reaching the completion point of the HIPC initiative, and would be a danger for the industrialization of the franc zone in the event of excess.
{"title":"Analyzing the impact of external debt on industrialization : the African franc zone case","authors":"D. Fogang, Jean Tchitchoua","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2020.883.246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2020.883.246","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses data from 10 countries of the African franc zone from 1996 to 2017, to gauge the effect of external debt on industrialization in the presence of non-linearity. Our analyzes are done based on two aspects. Firstly, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), our results show that there is a non-linear relationship between external debt and industrialization in the African franc zone, which depends on the level of the external debt stock, the threshold is $58.91 %$ of GDP. While before this threshold, external debt has no direct effect on industrialization, after this threshold it is harmful to it. Secondly, an analysis in two periods (1996-2006 and 2007-2017) by the GLS and SUR methods shows that before 2006, the external debt was an asset for industrialization but after, it gave way to domestic credit. Thus, the external debt has become obsolete after reaching the completion point of the HIPC initiative, and would be a danger for the industrialization of the franc zone in the event of excess.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115613350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.689.237
K. Sediakgotla, W. Molefe, D. K. Shangodoyin
The seasonal series on the average maximum temperatures in Gaborone (Botswana) is used to identify the best time series model that can be used for forecasting. The series was found to be highly seasonal. Seasonally adjusting the series prior to applying the Box and Jenkins procedure did not average out the seasonal effects, despite giving a fairly good ARIMA(1,1,1). We also fitted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q) with seasonality effects at lags s=12,24,36. Correlograms, Dickey Fuller tests and other model comparison methods led to an ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]. The seasonal multiplicative SARIMA was found to be parsimonious as compared to an additive seasonal SARIMA.
{"title":"Time Series Modelling of Monthly average Temperature in Gaborone-Botswana","authors":"K. Sediakgotla, W. Molefe, D. K. Shangodoyin","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.689.237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.689.237","url":null,"abstract":"The seasonal series on the average maximum temperatures in Gaborone (Botswana) is used to identify the best time series model that can be used for forecasting. The series was found to be highly seasonal. Seasonally adjusting the series prior to applying the Box and Jenkins procedure did not average out the seasonal effects, despite giving a fairly good ARIMA(1,1,1). We also fitted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q) with seasonality effects at lags s=12,24,36. Correlograms, Dickey Fuller tests and other model comparison methods led to an ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]. The seasonal multiplicative SARIMA was found to be parsimonious as compared to an additive seasonal SARIMA.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121126657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.723.239
O. Adebola, O. Ewemooje, F. B. Adebola
{"title":"Plagiarism and Examination Malpractice: Persistent Examples of Academic Dishonesty","authors":"O. Adebola, O. Ewemooje, F. B. Adebola","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.723.239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.723.239","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130360349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.741.240
Oluwayemisi O Alaba, C. Godwin, A. Lawal
{"title":"Corrective Measures in Linear Regression Model Plagued with Heteroscedasticity: A Monte Carlo","authors":"Oluwayemisi O Alaba, C. Godwin, A. Lawal","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.741.240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.741.240","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117112963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.711.238
Dodema Biteniwe, K. Gneyou
Time series are often subject to structural changes caused by external events such as strikes, new fiscal measures, or policy changes. In the current paper, we conduct a comparative study of a parametric and nonparametric approach to intervention time series modeling to model the impact, on corporate tax, of the important tax reform in December 2012 in Togo (the establishment of a Togolese Revenue Office).The comparison of the two models has led us to conclude that the non-parametric approach is superior in terms of predictive quality as well as the measurement of the effect of the reform.
{"title":"Intervention time series modeling with parametric and nonparametric approach: comparative study on Corporation tax in Togo","authors":"Dodema Biteniwe, K. Gneyou","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.711.238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.711.238","url":null,"abstract":"Time series are often subject to structural changes caused by external events such as strikes, new fiscal measures, or policy changes. In the current paper, we conduct a comparative study of a parametric and nonparametric approach to intervention time series modeling to model the impact, on corporate tax, of the important tax reform in December 2012 in Togo (the establishment of a Togolese Revenue Office).The comparison of the two models has led us to conclude that the non-parametric approach is superior in terms of predictive quality as well as the measurement of the effect of the reform.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132821560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.663.236
G. D. Manyeagae, W. Molefe, B. Seabo
This article examines factors that explain trust in public institutions in Botswana and factors that explain trust in public institutions. The Afrobarometer surveys from 2008 to 2014 show a decline in public institutional trust in Botswana even though the country is considered a hub for good governance in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data, the article employs multilevel analysis to assess factors that explain trust in public institutions. The findings indicate that education, satisfaction with democracy and perceptions of corruption are significant factors in explaining trust in public institutions. The article argues that while Botswana’s democratic credentials are undisputed, citizens are increasingly becoming too critical of public institutions.
{"title":"Assessing the Determinants of Trust in Public Institutions in Botswana : A Multilevel Linear Model Approach","authors":"G. D. Manyeagae, W. Molefe, B. Seabo","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.663.236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.663.236","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines factors that explain trust in public institutions in Botswana and factors that explain trust in public institutions. The Afrobarometer surveys from 2008 to 2014 show a decline in public institutional trust in Botswana even though the country is considered a hub for good governance in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data, the article employs multilevel analysis to assess factors that explain trust in public institutions. The findings indicate that education, satisfaction with democracy and perceptions of corruption are significant factors in explaining trust in public institutions. The article argues that while Botswana’s democratic credentials are undisputed, citizens are increasingly becoming too critical of public institutions.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129791641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.16929/AJAS/2019.537.229
A. Adetokunbo, A. Adeniran
{"title":"Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Optimum Utilization of Antenatal Health Services Among Women of Reproductive Age in Nigeria","authors":"A. Adetokunbo, A. Adeniran","doi":"10.16929/AJAS/2019.537.229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/AJAS/2019.537.229","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126689146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.617.234
R. O. Olanrewaju
{"title":"On Adverse Consequences of Malaria Drugs taken during Pregnancy on Babies' Malformation in Nigeria","authors":"R. O. Olanrewaju","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.617.234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.617.234","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133472878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.599.233
Lorenz A. Gilch
This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 football tournament. It is based on a Poisson regression model that includes the Elo points of the participating teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific skills. The proposed model allows predictions in terms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the outcome of each single match of the tournament and hence to simulate the whole tournament itself. The model is fitted on all football games on neutral ground of the participating teams since 2010.
{"title":"Prediction Model for the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 via Nested Poisson Regression","authors":"Lorenz A. Gilch","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.599.233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.599.233","url":null,"abstract":"This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 football tournament. It is based on a Poisson regression model that includes the Elo points of the participating teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific skills. The proposed model allows predictions in terms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the outcome of each single match of the tournament and hence to simulate the whole tournament itself. The model is fitted on all football games on neutral ground of the participating teams since 2010.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127701519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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