The paper by Anne Brunila is based on the report of a working group set up by the Finnish Economic Council with the task “to evaluate the operating framework of the public sector in Finland, the long-term challenges and pressures for change, and to present different policy options to ensure that the public sector will be able to carry out and develop its main welfare functions in a sustainable manner”. The paper describes the challenges faced by the Finnish welfare system: population ageing, increasing number of early retirements and declining labour force participation. Long-term projections based on generational accounting are presented to assess the extent of the ensuing financing pressures. The policy options to address such pressures are discussed and the need for measures aimed at raising labour force participation and productivity is stressed. In addition to removing the incentives for early retirement and the disincentives to work longer, the author argues that a marked reduction of the tax burden targeted on labour would be necessary. Taking into account the objectives set in the Stability and Growth Pact, this tax reduction in turn requires savings in government expenditure.
Anne Brunila的这篇论文是基于芬兰经济委员会成立的一个工作组的报告，该工作组的任务是“评估芬兰公共部门的运作框架、变革的长期挑战和压力，并提出不同的政策选择，以确保公共部门能够以可持续的方式执行和发展其主要福利功能”。本文描述了芬兰福利制度面临的挑战:人口老龄化、提前退休人数增加和劳动力参与率下降。提出了基于代际会计的长期预测，以评估随之而来的融资压力的程度。讨论了解决这种压力的政策选择，并强调需要采取旨在提高劳动力参与率和生产率的措施。除了取消鼓励提前退休和不鼓励延长工作时间的措施外，发件人还认为，有必要显著减少针对劳工的税负。考虑到《稳定与增长公约》(Stability and Growth Pact)设定的目标，这种减税反过来又要求政府节省开支。
{"title":"Public Finances in the XXI Century: Limitations, Challenges and Directions of Reforms in Finland","authors":"Anne Brunila","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2109513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109513","url":null,"abstract":"The paper by Anne Brunila is based on the report of a working group set up by the Finnish Economic Council with the task “to evaluate the operating framework of the public sector in Finland, the long-term challenges and pressures for change, and to present different policy options to ensure that the public sector will be able to carry out and develop its main welfare functions in a sustainable manner”. The paper describes the challenges faced by the Finnish welfare system: population ageing, increasing number of early retirements and declining labour force participation. Long-term projections based on generational accounting are presented to assess the extent of the ensuing financing pressures. The policy options to address such pressures are discussed and the need for measures aimed at raising labour force participation and productivity is stressed. In addition to removing the incentives for early retirement and the disincentives to work longer, the author argues that a marked reduction of the tax burden targeted on labour would be necessary. Taking into account the objectives set in the Stability and Growth Pact, this tax reduction in turn requires savings in government expenditure.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130633499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The decline in labour force due to ageing in the Finnish economy is also at the core of the analysis by Urpo Hautala and Jorma Tuukkanen. The authors' starting point is to note that while a social security system with wide coverage, high benefits and little incentive to work can cause a substantial loss in terms of labour force and production, a properly tuned system can bolster sustainable economic growth and welfare. Hautala and Tukkanen propose a mixed pension system composed of two tiers: an actuarial defined-benefit pension and a defined-contribution account pension. They argue that the new system would provide a suitable trade-off between insurance that balances out risk (defined-benefit) and saving (defined contribution), increasing personal responsibility and encouraging work. The ensuing reduction in expenditure would avoid the increase in the tax burden that would otherwise be necessary to avoid debt accumulation.
{"title":"Towards a Sustainable and Job-Oriented Pension System in Finland","authors":"Urpo Hautala, J. Tuukkanen","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2109514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2109514","url":null,"abstract":"The decline in labour force due to ageing in the Finnish economy is also at the core of the analysis by Urpo Hautala and Jorma Tuukkanen. The authors' starting point is to note that while a social security system with wide coverage, high benefits and little incentive to work can cause a substantial loss in terms of labour force and production, a properly tuned system can bolster sustainable economic growth and welfare. Hautala and Tukkanen propose a mixed pension system composed of two tiers: an actuarial defined-benefit pension and a defined-contribution account pension. They argue that the new system would provide a suitable trade-off between insurance that balances out risk (defined-benefit) and saving (defined contribution), increasing personal responsibility and encouraging work. The ensuing reduction in expenditure would avoid the increase in the tax burden that would otherwise be necessary to avoid debt accumulation.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132263187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Balassone and Franco review the literature on fiscal sustainability in order to examine the comparative advantages and disadvantages of different methodologies and indicators and to highlight the areas in which more research effort is still needed. They contrast the intuitive character of the concept of sustainability with the analytical and operational difficulties met with when trying to arrive at a rigorous definition. On the one hand, the literature has not produced a unique definition of sustainability; furthermore, the problem has only been dealt with in a partial equilibrium framework. On the other hand, the statistical definition of the main variables to be used for the assessment of sustainability is not uncontroversial; moreover, as the assessment is based on long-term projections, it is necessarily subject to wide margins of error.Balassone and Franco also point out that, theoretical issues notwithstanding, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact set fiscal rules which, if complied with, ensure sustainability according to any definition adopted. Techniques developed for the analysis of sustainability can therefore be used for the assessment of prospective compliance with such rules, a crucial task for both policy evaluation and timely corrective intervention. In re-examining the pros and cons of available indicators, their paper categorises the studies on the assessment of sustainability into two main strands: those testing for the sustainability of past policies and those assessing prospective fiscal stances. Among the latter a distinction is drawn between works based on standard national accounting concepts and generational accounting exercises. The paper concludes by stressing the need for further efforts to guide budgetary policy more effectively.
Balassone和Franco回顾了关于财政可持续性的文献，以检查不同方法和指标的比较优势和劣势，并强调仍然需要更多研究工作的领域。他们将可持续性概念的直观特征与试图得出严格定义时遇到的分析和操作困难进行了对比。一方面，文献没有给出可持续性的独特定义;此外，这个问题只是在部分平衡的框架下处理的。另一方面，用于评价可持续性的主要变量的统计定义并非没有争议;此外，由于评估是基于长期预测，因此必然存在较大的误差幅度。Balassone和Franco还指出，尽管存在理论问题，但《马斯特里赫特条约》(Treaty of Maastricht)和《稳定与增长公约》(Stability and Growth Pact)制定的财政规则如果得到遵守，无论采用何种定义，都能确保可持续性。因此，为分析可持续性而开发的技术可用于评估对这些规则的预期遵守情况，这是政策评价和及时纠正干预的关键任务。在重新审视现有指标的利弊时，他们的论文将可持续性评估的研究分为两大类:对过去政策可持续性的测试和对未来财政状况的评估。在后者中，根据标准国民会计概念和代际会计练习进行的工作有所区别。论文最后强调需要进一步努力，更有效地指导预算政策。
{"title":"Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Methods with a View to EMU","authors":"Fabrizio Balassone, D. Franco","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2109377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109377","url":null,"abstract":"Balassone and Franco review the literature on fiscal sustainability in order to examine the comparative advantages and disadvantages of different methodologies and indicators and to highlight the areas in which more research effort is still needed. They contrast the intuitive character of the concept of sustainability with the analytical and operational difficulties met with when trying to arrive at a rigorous definition. On the one hand, the literature has not produced a unique definition of sustainability; furthermore, the problem has only been dealt with in a partial equilibrium framework. On the other hand, the statistical definition of the main variables to be used for the assessment of sustainability is not uncontroversial; moreover, as the assessment is based on long-term projections, it is necessarily subject to wide margins of error.Balassone and Franco also point out that, theoretical issues notwithstanding, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact set fiscal rules which, if complied with, ensure sustainability according to any definition adopted. Techniques developed for the analysis of sustainability can therefore be used for the assessment of prospective compliance with such rules, a crucial task for both policy evaluation and timely corrective intervention. In re-examining the pros and cons of available indicators, their paper categorises the studies on the assessment of sustainability into two main strands: those testing for the sustainability of past policies and those assessing prospective fiscal stances. Among the latter a distinction is drawn between works based on standard national accounting concepts and generational accounting exercises. The paper concludes by stressing the need for further efforts to guide budgetary policy more effectively.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"270 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115834320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Willi Leibfritz outlines the purposes and features of generational accounting and reviews the main results of a project applying the technique to 17 countries. In most countries current policies are not sustainable. Future generations would have to pay higher net taxes than current generations. Demographic changes are the main source of the generational imbalances with current public debt playing a significant role in some countries. The paper includes estimates about the alternative expenditure cuts or revenue increases required for correcting the imbalances. It also argues that governments would alleviate the adjustment by reducing debt and deficit levels before the peak of population ageing. Leibfritz concludes with some suggestions for policy and methodological improvements. He notes that the availability of information about the implications of ageing and of alternative policy reactions is a precondition for the implementation of appropriate policies and that the computation of generational accounts on a regular basis can contribute to improve the decision making process. He suggests that differences from previous estimates should be thoroughly explained and that the base year data should be adjusted to remove the effects of cyclical or temporary factors. He also advises to complement the indicator of intergenerational imbalances with the debt to GDP ratio, which is more familiar to policy-makers.
{"title":"Generational Accounting Around the World","authors":"W. Leibfritz","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2109475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2109475","url":null,"abstract":"Willi Leibfritz outlines the purposes and features of generational accounting and reviews the main results of a project applying the technique to 17 countries. In most countries current policies are not sustainable. Future generations would have to pay higher net taxes than current generations. Demographic changes are the main source of the generational imbalances with current public debt playing a significant role in some countries. The paper includes estimates about the alternative expenditure cuts or revenue increases required for correcting the imbalances. It also argues that governments would alleviate the adjustment by reducing debt and deficit levels before the peak of population ageing. Leibfritz concludes with some suggestions for policy and methodological improvements. He notes that the availability of information about the implications of ageing and of alternative policy reactions is a precondition for the implementation of appropriate policies and that the computation of generational accounts on a regular basis can contribute to improve the decision making process. He suggests that differences from previous estimates should be thoroughly explained and that the base year data should be adjusted to remove the effects of cyclical or temporary factors. He also advises to complement the indicator of intergenerational imbalances with the debt to GDP ratio, which is more familiar to policy-makers.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117009613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paul Hiebert and Massimo Rostagno explore the analytical links between EMU fiscal rules and the theory of fiscal sustainability with a focus on the transition to the equilibrium debt to GDP ratios implied by such rules. The authors argue that such a transition cannot be satisfactorily managed by simply prescribing strict adherence to the safety margins computed by the European Commission for the cyclically adjusted budgets of EMU member countries. This strategy may induce distortions in the way fiscal quantities respond to economic developments. They also point out that indicators like the tax-gap, while useful in signalling a prospective imbalance, do not translate automatically into policy prescriptions. Hiebert and Rostagno therefore explore the properties of a policy rule whereby fiscal variables are adjusted according to the distance between the current and the targeted fiscal position and find that this allows a flexible pattern of fiscal response to both cyclical and structural changes.
{"title":"'Close to Balance or in Surplus': A Methodology to Calculate Fiscal Benchmarks","authors":"P. Hiebert, M. Rostagno","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2109362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109362","url":null,"abstract":"Paul Hiebert and Massimo Rostagno explore the analytical links between EMU fiscal rules and the theory of fiscal sustainability with a focus on the transition to the equilibrium debt to GDP ratios implied by such rules. The authors argue that such a transition cannot be satisfactorily managed by simply prescribing strict adherence to the safety margins computed by the European Commission for the cyclically adjusted budgets of EMU member countries. This strategy may induce distortions in the way fiscal quantities respond to economic developments. They also point out that indicators like the tax-gap, while useful in signalling a prospective imbalance, do not translate automatically into policy prescriptions. Hiebert and Rostagno therefore explore the properties of a policy rule whereby fiscal variables are adjusted according to the distance between the current and the targeted fiscal position and find that this allows a flexible pattern of fiscal response to both cyclical and structural changes.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126616922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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