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An Economy of Innovative Dynamism 创新活力经济
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0001
A. Diamond
Economies have grown where innovative dynamism has flourished, especially in the United States from roughly 1830 to 1930. Innovations are not inevitable, but occur when inventors can invent and entrepreneurs can innovate. Individual inventors matter and are scarce. Thomas Edison was not the only one to invent a light bulb but was the first to invent a bulb that would stay lit at a price that ordinary people could afford. Leapfrog competition occurs when an innovation improves on, and at least partly replaces, an older technology. The best size for a firm varies with technology, industry, and business model. With John D. Rockefeller’s process innovations, Standard Oil succeeded as a big firm. But horizontal mergers failed in many other industries during the same period. Big incumbent firms can implement innovations, but are disadvantaged at starting breakthrough innovations. Baldwin Locomotive and Netscape illustrate that firms can contribute and then exit with honor.
在创新活力蓬勃发展的地方,经济就会增长,尤其是在大约1830年至1930年的美国。创新并非不可避免,而是在发明家能够发明、企业家能够创新的时候才会出现。个体发明家很重要,而且很稀缺。托马斯·爱迪生不是唯一一个发明电灯泡的人,但他是第一个发明一种价格能让普通人承受得起的灯泡。跨越式竞争发生在一项创新对旧技术进行改进,至少部分取代旧技术的时候。公司的最佳规模因技术、行业和商业模式而异。由于约翰·d·洛克菲勒的工艺革新,标准石油成为了一家成功的大公司。但在同一时期,许多其他行业的横向合并都失败了。大型在位企业可以实施创新,但在启动突破性创新方面处于劣势。鲍德温·火车头和网景公司说明,公司可以做出贡献,然后体面地退出。
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引用次数: 0
Easing the Pains of Labor 缓解分娩的痛苦
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0006
A. Diamond
The worst labor-market fears about innovative dynamism are either unjustified or can be allayed by better policies. Except during the depths of recessions, more jobs are created than destroyed. Job loss is usually gradually and often can be foreseen. The pains of labor can be reduced through policies that avoid repeating the Great Depression or the Crisis of 2008. The pains can be further reduced by fostering more robustly redundant job markets, such as in Silicon Valley, where most workers can quickly and easily find new jobs. Some innovative entrepreneurs succeed at turning their startups into the fast-growing gazelles that create most of the new jobs in the economy. Redundant job markets can be fostered by minimizing regulations on the gazelles, and by reducing the credentialism exemplified by occupational licensing. Robots and artificial intelligence are not to be feared because they are more complements than substitute for human labor.
劳动力市场对创新活力最糟糕的担忧要么是没有道理的,要么可以通过更好的政策来缓解。除了在经济衰退最严重的时候,创造的就业机会比破坏的要多。失业通常是渐进的,而且往往是可以预见的。通过避免大萧条或2008年危机重演的政策,可以减少分娩的痛苦。通过培育更强大的冗余就业市场,比如在硅谷,大多数工人可以快速、轻松地找到新工作,这种痛苦可以进一步减少。一些有创新精神的企业家成功地将他们的初创企业变成了快速增长的瞪羚,为经济创造了大部分新的就业机会。通过尽量减少对瞪羚的监管,以及通过减少以职业许可为代表的资历主义,可以促进冗余的就业市场。机器人和人工智能并不可怕,因为它们更多的是对人类劳动的补充,而不是替代。
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引用次数: 0
The Benefits: Labor Gains 好处:劳动收益
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0007
A. Diamond
New jobs created by innovative dynamism tend to be better jobs than old jobs destroyed. The new jobs are usually safer, cleaner, less routine, more creative, and more satisfying. Most factory jobs in the Industrial Revolution were steps up for those who had been scraping by in rural poverty. The replacement of the steam engine by the electric engine in factories made factories safer, cleaner, and better lit. From the late 1800s through the early 2000s, new jobs tended to involve less manual labor, less routine, more creativity, and more analysis. The trend accelerated with the flourishing of computers and the Internet in the 1990s and early 2000s. Innovative dynamism allows workers to choose jobs pursuing big, hairy, audacious goals (BHAGs) and the control, challenge, and satisfaction of being their own boss as free-agent entrepreneurs. We all benefit from allowing the choice of intense jobs, rather than mandating work–life balance.
创新活力创造的新工作往往比被摧毁的旧工作更好。新的工作通常更安全、更干净、更少套路、更有创意、更令人满意。工业革命时期的大多数工厂工作对那些在农村贫困地区勉强度日的人来说都是步步高升。工厂里的蒸汽机被电动发动机取代,使工厂更安全、更清洁、照明更好。从19世纪末到21世纪初,新的工作往往涉及更少的体力劳动、更少的常规工作,更多的是创造力和更多的分析。随着20世纪90年代和21世纪初计算机和互联网的蓬勃发展,这一趋势加速了。创新活力使员工能够选择追求宏大、惊险、大胆目标(bhag)的工作,以及作为自由企业家成为自己老板的控制、挑战和满足感。我们都受益于允许选择高强度的工作,而不是强制工作与生活的平衡。
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引用次数: 0
The Benefits: Morality, Equality, Mobility, Culture, and the Environment 好处:道德、平等、流动性、文化和环境
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0008
A. Diamond
The wealth received by some innovative entrepreneurs is fair because of the large benefits of their innovations. Widespread flourishing under innovative dynamism encourages tolerance of diversity, respect for the rights of others, more effective sympathy, and cultural diversity. The equality that matters most is that everyone has roughly an equal chance to improve their lives. The quantity of resources expands, because inventors and entrepreneurs create new uses for old materials. For example, process innovations in agriculture, such as the Haber-Bosch process for creating fertilizer from nitrogen in the air, mean that an abundance of food can be grown with less land, encouraging the greening of the planet. Innovations can allow us to adapt to modest and slow global warming. If global warming becomes greater and faster, other innovations can produce energy with less carbon, can increase the sequestration of carbon, and can counter the increase in temperature through geoengineering.
一些创新企业家获得的财富是公平的,因为他们的创新带来了巨大的利益。在创新活力下的广泛繁荣,鼓励对多样性的容忍,尊重他人的权利,更有效的同情和文化多样性。最重要的平等是,每个人都有大致平等的机会来改善他们的生活。由于发明家和企业家为旧材料创造了新用途,资源的数量得以扩大。例如,农业中的工艺创新,如从空气中的氮中制造肥料的哈伯-博世工艺,意味着可以用更少的土地种植出丰富的食物,从而促进地球的绿化。创新可以让我们适应适度和缓慢的全球变暖。如果全球变暖变得更严重、更快,其他创新可以用更少的碳来生产能源,可以增加碳的固存,可以通过地球工程来抵消温度的上升。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation Bound or Unbound by Culture and Institutions 受文化和制度约束或不受约束的创新
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0009
A. Diamond
The right culture, institutions, and policies all can encourage innovative dynamism. Heroes inspire cultural values of courage, perseverance, hard work, and tolerance. Religion enables innovative dynamism when it reduces violence and encourages respect for property. Religion constrains innovative dynamism when it limits questioning, as often occurs in hierarchical religions that emphasize faith. The Founding Fathers owed more to the tolerance of the Dutch of New Amsterdam, and to the trial-and-error experimentation of Galilean science, than they did to the religious fervor of the Pilgrims. Innovative dynamism often flourishes where institutions such as the rule of law, property rights, and the city enable diversity, collaboration, and a robustly redundant labor market. North and South Korea shared a culture, but through different institutions and policies, have diverged in innovation. Because policies matter, and we know best how to change them, policy reforms should be the focus of efforts to enhance innovative dynamism.
正确的文化、制度和政策都可以鼓励创新活力。英雄激发了勇气、毅力、努力工作和宽容的文化价值观。当宗教减少暴力并鼓励对财产的尊重时,它就能带来创新活力。当宗教限制质疑时,它就限制了创新活力,这在强调信仰的等级宗教中经常发生。比起清教徒的宗教热情,美国的开国元勋们更应该归功于新阿姆斯特丹荷兰人的宽容和伽利略科学的反复试验。在法治、产权和城市等制度能够促进多样性、合作和劳动力市场冗余的地方,创新活力往往会蓬勃发展。朝鲜和韩国共享一种文化,但由于不同的制度和政策,两国在创新方面存在分歧。政策很重要,我们最了解如何改变政策,因此,政策改革应该成为增强创新活力的重点。
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引用次数: 0
The Benefits: New Goods 好处:新产品
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0004
A. Diamond
The value of innovative new goods is hard to measure, but can be seen in how people vote with their feet to live where there are innovative new goods. Among the most important new goods are cures for diseases, electric light, cars, washing machines, air conditioning, television, and computers. Cures for disease are especially important because they are primary goods that are needed for pursuing almost any life plan. The grandson of John D. Rockefeller, the richest person ever to live, died of scarlet fever because medical invention and entrepreneurship had not yet created Prontosil. Washing machines reduce time spent in routine drudgery. Air conditioning aids health, and allows the mental sharpness needed for pursuing creative and challenging life plans. Cars increase safety and control of travel times and companions. Some goods, such as Ray Kurzweil’s optical character recognition (OCR) machine, enables the blind to read regular books.
创新新商品的价值很难衡量,但可以从人们如何用脚投票选择住在有创新新商品的地方看出。最重要的新产品包括治疗疾病的药物、电灯、汽车、洗衣机、空调、电视和电脑。治疗疾病尤其重要,因为它们是实现几乎任何人生计划所必需的基本物资。他是有史以来最富有的人约翰·d·洛克菲勒(John D. Rockefeller)的孙子,死于猩红热,因为当时医学发明和企业家精神还没有创造出百浪多思(Prontosil)。洗衣机减少了花在日常杂活上的时间。空调有助于健康,并允许追求创造性和具有挑战性的生活计划所需的精神敏锐度。汽车增加了安全性,并控制了旅行时间和同伴。有些产品,如雷·库兹韦尔的光学字符识别(OCR)机器,使盲人能够阅读普通书籍。
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引用次数: 0
The Great Fact and the Good Life 伟大的事实与美好的生活
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0003
A. Diamond
Deirdre McCloskey’s Great Fact of economic history is the enrichment in the West that started during the Industrial Revolution, following millennia of life being, as Hobbes says, “poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” Hunter-gatherers lived violent, uncertain, often repetitive lives, far from the Golden Age that some imagine. Goods can be good if they provide John Rawls’s primary goods that are needed for achieving almost any life plan. They can be even better if they help us to achieve the higher goods related to the creativity, challenge, and fulfillment that Abraham Maslow discussed in his hierarchy of needs. Many who seem to oppose new goods are accidental Luddites, only opposing the particular new goods that they fear will harm them. After digesting its brain and backbone, a sea squirt spends the rest of its life vegetating. A human retains her brain and backbone, and so must act to thrive.
Deirdre McCloskey关于经济史的伟大事实是西方在工业革命期间开始的富裕,正如霍布斯所说的那样,数千年来的生活是“贫穷,肮脏,野蛮和短暂的”。狩猎采集者过着暴力、不确定、经常重复的生活,与一些人想象的黄金时代相距甚远。商品可以是好的,如果它们提供了约翰·罗尔斯的基本商品,这些基本商品是实现几乎任何人生计划所必需的。如果它们能帮助我们实现与亚伯拉罕·马斯洛(Abraham Maslow)在他的需求层次理论中所讨论的创造力、挑战和满足感相关的更高的目标,它们就会更好。许多似乎反对新产品的人是偶然的勒德分子,他们只是反对他们担心会伤害他们的特定新产品。在消化了自己的大脑和脊柱后,海鞘的余生都是在植草中度过的。人类保留了她的大脑和脊柱,因此必须采取行动才能茁壮成长。
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引用次数: 0
The Benefits: Process Innovations 好处:过程创新
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0005
A. Diamond
Process innovations mainly benefit consumers by reducing prices of services and of new and old goods, which benefits aspiring ordinary citizens more than the privileged rich. The interchangeable parts of the American system of manufacturing (famously demonstrated at Britain’s Crystal Palace in Victorian England) reduced the costs of many goods, bringing them within the reach of the working class. Process innovations are often financed by rich venturesome consumers who buy expensive early versions of new goods. Besides lowering costs, process innovations also increase the variety, convenience, and quality of goods. Important process innovations include Fritz Haber’s inventing a way to create fertilizer from air; Henry Ford’s adaptation of the assembly line to reduce the costs of manufacturing cars; Sam Walton’s logistical, information technology and managerial innovations to reduce the costs of retailing; and Jeff Bezos’s Internet process innovations to increase the variety, convenience, and speed of delivery of retail goods.
流程创新主要通过降低服务和新旧商品的价格使消费者受益,这对有抱负的普通公民比对享有特权的富人更有利。美国制造业体系的可互换部分(著名的例子是维多利亚时代英国的水晶宫)降低了许多商品的成本,使工人阶级能够负担得起。工艺创新通常是由富有的冒险消费者资助的,他们购买昂贵的新产品的早期版本。除了降低成本,工艺创新还增加了产品的种类、便利性和质量。重要的工艺创新包括弗里茨·哈伯发明了一种从空气中制造肥料的方法;亨利·福特(Henry Ford)采用装配线来降低汽车制造成本;山姆•沃尔顿(Sam Walton)在物流、信息技术和管理方面的创新,降低了零售成本;杰夫·贝佐斯的互联网流程创新增加了零售商品的种类、便利性和交付速度。
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引用次数: 0
Hope for a Better Future 希望有一个更好的未来
Pub Date : 2019-06-20 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780190263669.003.0013
A. Diamond
Pessimists predict the end of technological progress, but secular (long-term) stagnation is due to bad policies, not to having picked the low-hanging fruit, as illustrated by innovative medical entrepreneurs who have been constrained from bringing us quicker and better cures for cancer. Funded researchers must stick to their original protocols even in the face of promising serendipitous discoveries. Medical incumbents protect their turf by mandating costly double-blind studies for innovations, and then refusing to enroll their patients in the studies. Trial-and-error experimental tinkering allowed Emil Freireich and his Society of Jabbering Idiots to develop the chemotherapy cocktail that allowed many to be cured of childhood leukemia, and allowed Vincent DeVita to develop the chemotherapy cocktail that allowed many to be cured of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Yet FDA protocols restrict trial-and-error experimentation, resulting in many needless deaths. In medicine, as elsewhere, our future will be better if we unbind the innovative entrepreneur.
悲观主义者预测技术进步将终结,但长期(长期)停滞是由于糟糕的政策,而不是因为摘了容易摘到的果实,创新的医疗企业家在为我们带来更快更好的癌症治疗方法方面受到了限制。受资助的研究人员必须坚持他们最初的方案,即使面对有希望的偶然发现。现有的医疗机构为了保护自己的地盘,要求对创新进行昂贵的双盲研究,然后拒绝让病人参加这些研究。通过反复试验,Emil Freireich和他的“胡诌白痴协会”发明了一种鸡尾酒式化疗,使许多儿童白血病得以治愈;Vincent DeVita发明了一种鸡尾酒式化疗,使许多霍奇金淋巴瘤得以治愈。然而,FDA的规定限制了反复试验,导致许多不必要的死亡。在医学领域,就像在其他领域一样,如果我们解除对创新企业家的束缚,我们的未来将会更好。
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引用次数: 0
Unbinding Regulations 无约束力的规定
Pub Date : 2019-06-20 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190263669.003.0012
A. Diamond
The steady growth in imposed regulations, often defended on the basis of the precautionary principle (which forbids innovations until there is proof that they will cause no harm), increases the risks and costs of innovation for the entrepreneur. Many important innovations of the last century would not have occurred if the precautionary principle had been in operation. Organic regulation of the marketplace (including tort actions and private ratings firms) can counter injuries due to irresponsible firm behavior, without stifling innovation. OSHA regulations did not reduce workplace deaths; financial regulations did not stop the Crisis of 2008, and may have made it worse. Occupational licensing regulations protect incumbents, and reduce opportunity for the least well-off. By slowing new life-saving drugs, FDA regulations cause more deaths than they prevent. The Vodnoy paradox suggests that we favor regulations in areas where we are ignorant and oppose them in areas where we are knowledgeable.
强制性法规的稳步增长,通常以预防原则(在有证据证明创新不会造成伤害之前,禁止创新)为基础进行辩护,增加了企业家创新的风险和成本。如果预防原则得以实施,上个世纪的许多重要创新就不会发生。市场的有机监管(包括侵权行为和私人评级公司)可以对抗不负责任的企业行为造成的伤害,而不会扼杀创新。职业安全与卫生条例没有减少工作场所死亡;金融监管并没有阻止2008年的危机,反而可能使危机变得更糟。职业许可条例保护了在职者,减少了最不富裕的人的机会。美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)的规定减缓了新的救命药物的研发,导致的死亡人数超过了它们所能预防的死亡人数。沃特诺伊悖论表明,在我们不了解的领域,我们赞成监管,而在我们了解的领域,我们反对监管。
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引用次数: 0
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Openness to Creative Destruction
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