K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, Matthew Allen-Coghlan, C. Coffey
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2020","authors":"K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, Matthew Allen-Coghlan, C. Coffey","doi":"10.26504/qec2020spr","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2020spr","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":" 71","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141220285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole, Matthew Allen Coghlan, P. Economides
While a number of international concerns continue to cast a shadow on the domestic economy, both taxation receipts and labour market indicators suggest that the Irish economy continues to perform strongly in 2019. Output is still forecast to grow by 4.0 per cent in 2019 before moderating somewhat at 3.2 per cent in 2020. Unemployment is set to fall to 4.5 per cent by the end of the present year and to 4.1 per cent at the end of the next year. All forecasts, unless otherwise stated, maintain the Commentary’s baseline assumption that the trading status of the United Kingdom remains equivalent to that of a full European Union Member State.
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2019","authors":"K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole, Matthew Allen Coghlan, P. Economides","doi":"10.26504/QEC2019SUM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/QEC2019SUM","url":null,"abstract":"While a number of international concerns continue to cast a shadow on the \u0000domestic economy, both taxation receipts and labour market indicators suggest \u0000that the Irish economy continues to perform strongly in 2019. Output is still \u0000forecast to grow by 4.0 per cent in 2019 before moderating somewhat at 3.2 per \u0000cent in 2020. Unemployment is set to fall to 4.5 per cent by the end of the \u0000present year and to 4.1 per cent at the end of the next year. All forecasts, unless \u0000otherwise stated, maintain the Commentary’s baseline assumption that the \u0000trading status of the United Kingdom remains equivalent to that of a full \u0000European Union Member State.","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132676269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole, Matthew Allen-Coghlan, C. Coffey
Since the last Commentary, expectations for global economic activity have been scaled back once more. The outcome for 2012 is likely to be slightly more muted than had been expected, while any improvement in 2013 also looks set to be more subdued than previously thought. There are some signs that there could be a slight pick-up in growth in 2014. A resumption of trend growth in the eurozone would lead to an upward revision to Irish export growth forecasts, higher levels of GNP and GDP, an improvement in the public finances and a more speedy resolution of the public finances crisis.
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2020","authors":"K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole, Matthew Allen-Coghlan, C. Coffey","doi":"10.26504/qec2018win","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018win","url":null,"abstract":"Since the last Commentary, expectations for global economic activity have been \u0000scaled back once more. The outcome for 2012 is likely to be slightly more muted \u0000than had been expected, while any improvement in 2013 also looks set to be \u0000more subdued than previously thought. There are some signs that there could be \u0000a slight pick-up in growth in 2014. A resumption of trend growth in the eurozone \u0000would lead to an upward revision to Irish export growth forecasts, higher levels of \u0000GNP and GDP, an improvement in the public finances and a more speedy \u0000resolution of the public finances crisis.","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":"65 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126020078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Irish economy continues to perform significantly better than most OECD economies and is once again likely to register the fastest growth rate in the Euro Area in 2018. Indeed in the present Commentary we have revised up our forecast for GDP from 4.7 per cent to 8.9 per cent in 2018. Our forecast for 2019 has also been revised upwards to 4.5 per cent. In preparing forecasts for 2019, we assume that a European Economic Agreement (EEA) will exist between the UK and the EU after March 2019.
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2018","authors":"K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, P. Economides","doi":"10.26504/QEC2018AUT","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/QEC2018AUT","url":null,"abstract":"The Irish economy continues to perform significantly better than most OECD economies and is once again likely to register the fastest growth rate in the Euro Area in 2018. Indeed in the present Commentary we have revised up our forecast for GDP from 4.7 per cent to 8.9 per cent in 2018. Our forecast for 2019 has also been revised upwards to 4.5 per cent. In preparing forecasts for 2019, we assume that a European Economic Agreement (EEA) will exist between the UK and the EU after March 2019.","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133712985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, P. Economides, Teresa Monteiro
Tax treatments of pensions vary widely across countries. This paper examines the current tax treatment of pension contributions in Ireland and some widely discussed alternatives, including equalising the tax relief available to low and high earners. The analysis takes into account both explicit contributions in the private sector, and the implicit value of publicly funded pensions. INTRODUCTION Most OECD countries are facing the ‘twin challenge of ensuring both the adequacy and financial sustainability’ of their pension systems (OECD, 2014). Ageing populations, falling fertility rates and stagnating employment levels mean that funding the income of the elderly by using taxes paid by the working age population is becoming more and more difficult. Similar pressures affect Ireland although its relatively high fertility rate does afford some advantage compared to many European countries. Calls for reform of both public and private pension systems in Ireland have been frequent over the last decades and have come from many sources. The OECD, while acknowledging that Ireland is better positioned than many countries, recommends that Ireland ‘continue to adapt and fine-tune its pension system so that it can provide affordable and adequate benefits to Irish retirees in the long term’. Collins and Hughes (2017) also call for reform of the pension system, questioning the effectiveness of the current set of policy instruments focused on getting people to save for their retirement. Reform of State pension entitlement is already under way. The retirement age has increased from 65 to 66, and further increases – to 67 in 2021 and 68 in 2028 – have been announced and passed in legislation. 1 This paper represents a development of work initially conducted for the Pensions Council. We thank the Council for initiating this project, and Council members Helen McDonald and Shane Whelan for helpful comments. We thank Gerry Reilly and the SILC team at the CSO for access to SILC data on which the SWITCH tax-benefit model is based. * Karina Doorley is Research Officer at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics and Adjunct Lecturer at Trinity College Dublin. Tim Callan is Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics and Adjunct Professor at Trinity College Dublin. Mark Regan is Research Assistant and John Walsh is Senior Research Analyst at the Economic and Social Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018sum_sa_doorley 70 | Q uar t er ly Eco nomi c C omme nt ary – S um me r 2 01 8 State pensions in Ireland are not earnings related. As a result, the attainment of adequate replacement of employment income depends, for those on middle and higher incomes, on being supplemented by private pensions. Policy instruments which can encourage such private sector provision include both tax incentives and, potentially, legislative provisions regardin
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2018","authors":"K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, P. Economides, Teresa Monteiro","doi":"10.26504/qec2018sum","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018sum","url":null,"abstract":"Tax treatments of pensions vary widely across countries. This paper examines the current tax treatment of pension contributions in Ireland and some widely discussed alternatives, including equalising the tax relief available to low and high earners. The analysis takes into account both explicit contributions in the private sector, and the implicit value of publicly funded pensions. INTRODUCTION Most OECD countries are facing the ‘twin challenge of ensuring both the adequacy and financial sustainability’ of their pension systems (OECD, 2014). Ageing populations, falling fertility rates and stagnating employment levels mean that funding the income of the elderly by using taxes paid by the working age population is becoming more and more difficult. Similar pressures affect Ireland although its relatively high fertility rate does afford some advantage compared to many European countries. Calls for reform of both public and private pension systems in Ireland have been frequent over the last decades and have come from many sources. The OECD, while acknowledging that Ireland is better positioned than many countries, recommends that Ireland ‘continue to adapt and fine-tune its pension system so that it can provide affordable and adequate benefits to Irish retirees in the long term’. Collins and Hughes (2017) also call for reform of the pension system, questioning the effectiveness of the current set of policy instruments focused on getting people to save for their retirement. Reform of State pension entitlement is already under way. The retirement age has increased from 65 to 66, and further increases – to 67 in 2021 and 68 in 2028 – have been announced and passed in legislation. 1 This paper represents a development of work initially conducted for the Pensions Council. We thank the Council for initiating this project, and Council members Helen McDonald and Shane Whelan for helpful comments. We thank Gerry Reilly and the SILC team at the CSO for access to SILC data on which the SWITCH tax-benefit model is based. * Karina Doorley is Research Officer at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics and Adjunct Lecturer at Trinity College Dublin. Tim Callan is Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics and Adjunct Professor at Trinity College Dublin. Mark Regan is Research Assistant and John Walsh is Senior Research Analyst at the Economic and Social Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018sum_sa_doorley 70 | Q uar t er ly Eco nomi c C omme nt ary – S um me r 2 01 8 State pensions in Ireland are not earnings related. As a result, the attainment of adequate replacement of employment income depends, for those on middle and higher incomes, on being supplemented by private pensions. Policy instruments which can encourage such private sector provision include both tax incentives and, potentially, legislative provisions regardin","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123264467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, P. Economides, Teresa Monteiro
While data for the first quarter of the year suggested a certain slowing in the rate of economic activity, more recent indicators suggests that 2017 looks set to register strong growth for the Irish economy. In particular taxation receipts have increased somewhat in Quarter 2 compared with Quarter 1. Based on this and the continued strong performance of the Irish labour market and related growth in personal consumption we are now increasing our forecast for 2017 to 5.0 per cent for GDP. This is up by over 1 per cent from the last Commentary; our GDP forecast for 2018 is marginally increased to 4.0 per cent.
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2017","authors":"K. McQuinn, Conor O'Toole, P. Economides, Teresa Monteiro","doi":"10.26504/qec2017aut","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2017aut","url":null,"abstract":"While data for the first quarter of the year suggested a certain slowing in the rate of economic activity, more recent indicators suggests that 2017 looks set to register strong growth for the Irish economy. In particular taxation receipts have increased somewhat in Quarter 2 compared with Quarter 1. Based on this and the continued strong performance of the Irish labour market and related growth in personal consumption we are now increasing our forecast for 2017 to 5.0 per cent for GDP. This is up by over 1 per cent from the last Commentary; our GDP forecast for 2018 is marginally increased to 4.0 per cent.","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121899814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2002","authors":"D. McCoy, D. Duffy, J. Hore, C. MacCoille","doi":"10.26504/qec2018spr","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018spr","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":343647,"journal":{"name":"Forecasting Report","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122473634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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