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A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Environmental Tax Reform in Japan 日本环境税改革的可计算一般均衡分析
Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3593471
Shiro Takeda, Toshi H. Arimura
The Japanese government plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. However, it is not yet clear which policy measures the government will adopt to achieve this goal. In this regard, environmental tax reform, which is the combination of carbon regulation and the reduction of existing distortionary taxes, has attracted much attention. This paper examines the effects of environmental tax reform in Japan. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the quantitative impacts of environmental tax reform and clarify which types of environmental tax reform are the most desirable. In the simulation, we introduce a carbon tax and consider the following five scenarios for the use of carbon tax revenue: 1) a lump-sum rebate to the household, 2) a cut in social security contributions, 3) a cut in income taxes, 4) a cut in corporate taxes and 5) a cut in consumption taxes. The first scenario is a pure carbon tax, and the other four scenarios are types of environmental tax reform. Our CGE simulation shows that environmental tax reform tends to generate more desirable impacts than the pure carbon tax by improving welfare or increasing GDP while reducing emissions (double dividend). In particular, we show that a cut in corporate taxes leads to the most desirable policy in terms of GDP and national income.
日本政府计划到 2050 年将温室气体排放量减少 80%。然而,目前尚不清楚政府将采取哪些政策措施来实现这一目标。在这方面,环境税改革备受关注,它是碳排放监管与减少现有扭曲性税收的结合。本文研究了日本环境税改革的效果。我们利用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,分析了环境税改革的定量影响,并阐明了哪种类型的环境税改革最可取。在模拟中,我们引入了碳税,并考虑了以下五种碳税收入使用方案:1) 向家庭一次性退税;2) 削减社会保障缴款;3) 削减所得税;4) 削减企业税;5) 削减消费税。第一个方案是纯粹的碳税,其他四个方案是环境税改革的类型。我们的 CGE 模拟显示,与纯粹的碳税相比,环境税改革倾向于通过改善福利或增加 GDP 同时减少排放(双重红利)来产生更理想的影响。特别是,我们发现,从 GDP 和国民收入的角度来看,削减企业税是最理想的政策。
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引用次数: 18
An Empirical Equilibrium Model of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Developing Countries 发展中国家正规和非正规信贷市场的实证均衡模型
Pub Date : 2019-10-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3316939
Fan Wang
In this paper, I develop and estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of household borrowing and savings decisions in formal and informal credit markets. The model features households with heterogeneities in productivity and wealth, and characterizes credit market access by interest rates, fixed costs, and borrowing constraints. Households have access to an exogenous formal credit market and to an informal credit market in which the interest rate is endogenously determined by the local demand and supply of credit. My application focuses on Thailand which implemented policies in 2001 that primarily encouraged borrowing. I estimate the model by simulated maximum likelihood using data from the Townsend Thai Monthly Survey. Based on the estimated model, I find that lower fixed costs increased the proportion of households borrowing formally, and that relaxed formal borrowing collateral constraints lowered informal interest rates. In terms of welfare, I find that low wealth but productive households benefited from Thai policies to expand credit access, but the gains were smaller than suggested by previous studies that ignored the informal market. Moreover, approximately 18% of households suffered welfare losses because of diminished opportunities for informal saving. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that policies that combine borrowing and savings subsidies could yield higher average social welfare at a cost similar to the implemented policies.
在本文中,我开发和估计了一个动态均衡模型的家庭借贷和储蓄决策在正式和非正式信贷市场。该模型以生产率和财富异质性的家庭为特征,并通过利率、固定成本和借贷约束来表征信贷市场准入。家庭可以进入外生的正规信贷市场,也可以进入利率由当地信贷需求和供给内生决定的非正规信贷市场。我的申请重点关注泰国,该国在2001年实施了主要鼓励借贷的政策。我使用汤森泰国月度调查的数据通过模拟最大似然来估计模型。根据估算模型,我发现固定成本的降低增加了家庭正式借贷的比例,而正式借贷抵押品限制的放松降低了非正式利率。在福利方面,我发现低财富但有生产力的家庭从泰国扩大信贷渠道的政策中受益,但收益比之前忽视非正式市场的研究所表明的要小。此外,大约18%的家庭因非正式储蓄机会减少而遭受福利损失。反事实政策模拟表明,结合借贷和储蓄补贴的政策可以产生更高的平均社会福利,其成本与实施的政策相似。
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引用次数: 8
Bank Lending, Financial Frictions, and Inside Money Creation 银行贷款、金融摩擦和内部货币创造
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3402374
Lukas Altermatt
I build a general equilibrium model of the transmission of monetary policy on bank lending. Bank lending is done by individual banks that face random investment opportunities by creating inside money. Banks are subject to a reserve requirement and have access to the interbank money market. The model shows that lowering the money market rate relative to the inflation rate reduces investment and welfare. This is because the money market is an outside option for banks that face bad investment opportunities. Reducing the money market rate lowers the value of this outside option, which in turn reduces banks’ willingness to acquire reserves ex-ante. This leads to less aggregate reserves, which reduces the banking system’s ability to grant credit.
建立了货币政策对银行贷款传导的一般均衡模型。银行贷款是由个别银行通过创造内部货币而面临随机投资机会。银行必须缴纳存款准备金,并可进入银行间货币市场。该模型表明,降低货币市场利率相对于通货膨胀率会减少投资和福利。这是因为货币市场是面临不良投资机会的银行的外部选择。降低货币市场利率降低了这种外部期权的价值,进而降低了银行事先获取准备金的意愿。这导致总储备减少,从而降低了银行体系发放信贷的能力。
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引用次数: 1
Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information 不完全信息下DSGE模型的鲁棒预测
Pub Date : 2019-03-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3292550
R. Chahrour, R. Ulbricht
We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information structure. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an otherwise frictionless model. Our approach uncovers a central role for firm-specific demand shocks in supporting aggregate confidence fluctuations. Only if firms face unobserved local demand shocks can confidence fluctuations account for a significant portion of the US business cycle. (JEL D82, D83, E13, E31, E32)
我们提供了具有不完全信息的DSGE模型的预测,这些模型在信息结构上具有鲁棒性。我们的方法将不完全信息模型映射到具有时变期望楔的全信息经济中,并提供了确保楔在某种信息结构下是合理的条件。使用我们的方法,我们在一个无摩擦的模型中量化了信息作为商业周期波动来源的潜在重要性。我们的方法揭示了企业特定需求冲击在支持总体信心波动方面的核心作用。只有当企业面临未被观察到的本地需求冲击时,信心波动才能在美国商业周期中占很大一部分。(凝胶d82, d83, e13, e31, e32)
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引用次数: 9
Evaluating Central Banks&Apos; Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future 评估央行政策;工具箱:过去、现在和未来
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3344490
Eric R. Sims, Jing Cynthia Wu
We develop a structural DSGE model to systematically study the principal tools of unconventional monetary policy – quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and negative interest rate policy (NIRP) – as well as the interactions between them. To generate the same output response, the requisite NIRP and forward guidance interventions are twice as large as a conventional policy shock, which seems implausible in practice. In contrast, QE via an endogenous feedback rule can alleviate the constraints on conventional policy posed by the zero lower bound. Quantitatively, QE1-QE3 can account for two thirds of the observed decline in the “shadow” Federal Funds rate. In spite of its usefulness, QE does not come without cost. A large balance sheet has consequences for different normalization plans, the efficacy of NIRP, and the effective lower bound on the policy rate.
本文建立了一个结构性DSGE模型,系统地研究了非常规货币政策的主要工具——量化宽松(QE)、前瞻指引和负利率政策(NIRP)——以及它们之间的相互作用。为了产生同样的产出反应,必要的负利率政策和前瞻指导干预力度是传统政策冲击的两倍,这在实践中似乎不太可能。相比之下,通过内生反馈规则的量化宽松可以缓解零利率下界对传统政策的约束。从数量上看,QE1-QE3可以解释观察到的“影子”联邦基金利率下降的三分之二。尽管量化宽松很有用,但它并非没有成本。庞大的资产负债表会对不同的正常化计划、负利率政策的有效性以及政策利率的有效下限产生影响。
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引用次数: 11
The Role of Intermediate Goods in International Monetary Cooperation 中间产品在国际货币合作中的作用
Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3313932
T. Xia
Abstract This paper investigates the implications of intermediate goods for optimal monetary policy in open economies, and particularly focuses on the welfare gains that result from monetary cooperation. In a relatively standard two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with input-output relations, this paper demonstrates that introducing intermediate goods can amplify the welfare gains caused by cost-push shocks by an order of magnitude larger. A detailed analysis of equilibrium dynamics highlights a new channel that is absent in the previous literature: non-cooperative central banks respond differently to shocks in the intermediate goods market versus shocks in the final goods market, even if these shocks generate the same distortions when the two central banks cooperate. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that increasing the degree of openness in the intermediate goods market can reduce the welfare gains from monetary cooperation. This casts doubt on whether the recent trend in international economic integration justifies the potential need for international monetary cooperation.
摘要本文研究了开放经济中中间产品对最优货币政策的影响,并特别关注了货币合作带来的福利收益。在具有投入产出关系的两国动态随机一般均衡模型中,本文证明了引入中间产品可以将成本推动冲击带来的福利收益放大一个数量级。对均衡动态的详细分析强调了以前文献中没有的一个新渠道:非合作的中央银行对中间产品市场的冲击和最终产品市场的冲击的反应不同,即使这些冲击在两个中央银行合作时产生相同的扭曲。结果表明,提高中间产品市场的开放程度会降低货币合作带来的福利收益。这使人怀疑最近国际经济一体化的趋势是否证明有必要进行国际货币合作。
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引用次数: 1
The (Intertemporal) Equity-Efficiency Trade-Off of Fiscal Consolidation 财政整固的(跨期)公平-效率权衡
Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3303257
Stelios Sakkas, Petros Varthalitis
We build a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and capital-skill complementarity in the production function to study aggregate and distributional effects of fiscal consolidation policies when government uses a rich set of productivity-enhancing spending instruments along with utility-enhancing spending and tax fiscal instruments. Fiscal policy is conducted through simple fiscal rules. We study both ad-hoc and optimized fiscal rules. Our main results indicate that ad-hoc fiscal consolidation policies, either through spending cuts or tax increases, are recessionary and entail an equity-efficiency trade-off in the short- and medium-run. That is spending-based consolidation policies are less recessionary but come at a higher distributional cost; whereas tax-based consolidation policies result in sharper output losses but have smoother distributional effects. In addition, fiscal consolidation policies through optimized fiscal rules can be expansionary and social welfare enhancing while at the same time balance the equity-efficiency trade-off.
我们建立了一个具有异质性家庭和生产函数中资本技能互补性的动态一般均衡模型,以研究当政府使用一套丰富的提高生产率的支出工具以及提高效用的支出和税收财政工具时,财政整顿政策的总体和分配效应。财政政策是通过简单的财政规则实施的。我们研究了特别的和优化的财政规则。我们的主要结果表明,无论是通过削减支出还是增加税收,特别的财政整顿政策都是衰退性的,并且在短期和中期需要权衡公平-效率。也就是说,以支出为基础的整顿政策不那么具有衰退性,但其分配成本更高;而以税收为基础的整合政策会导致更严重的产出损失,但会产生更平稳的分配效应。此外,通过优化财政规则实施的财政整顿政策在兼顾公平性和效率权衡的同时,具有扩张性和社会福利的增强作用。
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引用次数: 2
Freeze and Bid-Ask Spread in the Sovereign Bond Market 主权债券市场的冻结和买卖价差
Pub Date : 2018-12-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3079487
P. Moutot, I. Curato, Rafaela Guberovic
We describe a model for two market-makers in the sovereign bond market. The paper gives special importance to the way payments are decided and reflects the cost of securities issuance and trading, a usually small and neglected component of the bond price in normal times. The model generates a dynamic of the bid-ask spread which depends on the discount rate of utility of the market-makers. The novelty of the paper consists in modelling the discount rate of utility as a function depending on fundamentals and the possible changes in the overall risk aversion in the market. The latter aspect is modelled as a martingale process and called sentiment process. We then obtain a solution for our model that can qualitatively mimic the decrease of turnover and the related increase of spread observed in periods of financial uncertainty.
我们描述了主权债券市场上两个做市商的模型。本文特别重视支付的决定方式,并反映了证券发行和交易的成本,这是正常时期债券价格中一个通常很小且被忽视的组成部分。该模型生成了一个动态的买卖价差,该价差取决于做市商的效用贴现率。本文的新颖之处在于将效用贴现率建模为一个函数,该函数取决于基本面和市场整体风险厌恶程度的可能变化。后一个方面被建模为鞅过程,称为情感过程。然后,我们为我们的模型获得了一个解决方案,可以定性地模拟在金融不确定时期观察到的营业额减少和相关的价差增加。
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引用次数: 1
GEPPML: General Equilibrium Analysis with PPML 用PPML进行一般均衡分析
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12664
James E. Anderson, Mario Larch, Y. Yotov
We develop a simple procedure for general equilibrium comparative static analysis of gravity models. Non‐linear solvers are replaced by (constrained) regressions using theoretical properties of the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator. Our GEPPML procedure can readily be implemented in any software capable of estimating constrained Poisson models. The procedure accommodates calibrated as well as estimated trade costs while using the estimation power of structural gravity to generate GE comparative statics. Using GEPPML, we quantify the effects of a hypothetical removal of all international borders while preserving the impact of geography on trade. We find that trade liberalisation has reaped at most half the potential world gains from trade in 2002 manufacturing. A complementary counterfactual experiment simulates the removal of the border between Canada and US, thus contributing to the famous “border puzzle” literature in a multicountry setting.
我们开发了重力模型一般平衡比较静力分析的简单程序。利用泊松伪极大似然估计的理论性质,非线性解算器被(约束)回归所取代。我们的GEPPML程序可以很容易地在任何能够估计约束泊松模型的软件中实现。该程序适应校准和估计的贸易成本,同时使用结构重力的估计能力来生成通用电气比较静力学。使用GEPPML,我们量化了假设消除所有国际边界的影响,同时保留了地理对贸易的影响。我们发现,贸易自由化最多只收获了2002年全球制造业贸易潜在收益的一半。一个互补的反事实实验模拟了加拿大和美国之间边界的移除,从而为多国背景下著名的“边界谜题”文学做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 70
The Welfare Effects of Free Trade Agreements in Quantitative Trade Models: A Comparison of Studies About Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership 定量贸易模式下自由贸易协定的福利效应:跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系研究比较
Pub Date : 2018-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12670
E. Bekkers, H. Rojas‐Romagosa
We compare different methodological approaches to predicting the welfare effects of trade policy experiments. We focus on studies that estimate the economic effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Methodologically, the studies can be divided into those employing computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and structural gravity (SG) models. We compare and critically discuss differences in the estimated trade cost reductions and in the economic models employed, and how these can explain the relatively wide range of economic effects found in the different TTIP studies. We conclude that reasonable estimates of the welfare effects for the TTIP partners are between 0.5% and 2%.
我们比较了预测贸易政策实验的福利效应的不同方法。我们的重点是评估跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系(TTIP)的经济影响的研究。在方法上,研究可分为可计算一般平衡(CGE)模型和结构重力(SG)模型。我们比较并批判性地讨论了估计的贸易成本降低和所采用的经济模型的差异,以及这些差异如何解释在不同的TTIP研究中发现的相对广泛的经济影响。我们得出结论,对TTIP合作伙伴的福利影响的合理估计在0.5%到2%之间。
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引用次数: 22
期刊
ERN: Computable General Equilibrium Models (Topic)
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