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Export Diversification, Margins and Economic Growth at Industrial Level: Evidence from Thailand 出口多元化、利润率与产业层面的经济增长:来自泰国的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12921
Juthathip Jongwanich
This paper examines the relationship between export diversification, export margins and economic growth at the industry level using Thailand as a case study during 2002–16. Our results show that the effects of export diversification and margins on economic growth vary across industries. Export diversification helps boost growth only in some sectors, including electronics, automotive and chemicals, plastic and rubber, while in the processed food, and textiles and apparel industries, specialisation matters more in promoting growth. In almost all industries, a non‐linear relationship between diversification and economic growth is not revealed, except in textiles and apparel. The diversification is crucial in enhancing the impact of exports on growth only in the processed food and textiles and apparel industries. Expansion of intensive margins plays an important role in boosting growth in key industries within Thailand. The role of extensive margins, both in terms of new products and new market destinations, in promoting economic growth is limited. For extensive margins (new products), it is found to be significant in boosting economic growth only in processed food and textiles and apparel, while in the case of extensive margins (new market destinations), its significance in boosting growth is revealed only in the electronics sector.
本文以2002年泰国为例,在行业层面上考察了出口多样化、出口利润率和经济增长之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明,出口多样化和利润率对经济增长的影响因行业而异。出口多样化只对电子、汽车、化工、塑料和橡胶等部分行业的增长有帮助,而在加工食品、纺织和服装行业,专业化对促进增长的作用更大。在几乎所有行业中,除了纺织和服装行业外,多元化与经济增长之间并没有显示出非线性关系。多样化对提高出口对加工食品和纺织及服装工业增长的影响至关重要。集约化利润的扩大在促进泰国关键行业的增长方面发挥着重要作用。在新产品和新市场目的地方面,广泛的利润在促进经济增长方面的作用是有限的。对于广泛的利润(新产品),它被发现在促进经济增长只有在加工食品和纺织品和服装显著,而在广泛的利润(新的市场目的地)的情况下,其在促进增长的意义只显示在电子部门。
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引用次数: 16
The Gravity Model and Trade in Intermediate Inputs 重力模型与中间投入品贸易
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12947
Theresa M. Greaney, Kozo Kiyota
Is the gravity model as applicable to trade in intermediate inputs as it is to trade in final goods? One of the contributions of this paper is that we explicitly account for the dual nature of products that can be used as either intermediate inputs or final goods. We find that the structural gravity model performs extremely well for describing bilateral trade in final goods and in intermediate inputs. Moreover, this continues to hold even when we focus on a subset of countries in which intermediate inputs trade accounts for a growing share of trade, namely ‘Factory Asia’. However, the gravity model may perform poorly due to model misspecification (i.e., exclusion of intranational trade) and/or sample selection, even after the model considers the dual nature of products. We demonstrate that the poor performance of the gravity model is not attributable to the large trade flow of intermediate inputs, which supports the continued use of the model as these trade flows continue to grow in importance worldwide.
重力模型是否同样适用于中间投入的贸易,就像适用于最终产品的贸易一样?本文的贡献之一是,我们明确地说明了产品的双重性质,既可以用作中间投入,也可以用作最终产品。我们发现结构引力模型在描述最终产品和中间投入的双边贸易方面表现得非常好。此外,即使我们关注中间投入品贸易在贸易中所占份额越来越大的国家子集,即“亚洲工厂”,这种情况仍然成立。然而,即使在模型考虑了产品的双重性质之后,重力模型也可能由于模型规格错误(即,排除国内贸易)和/或样本选择而表现不佳。我们证明,引力模型的不良表现并不归因于中间投入的大量贸易流,这支持了该模型的继续使用,因为这些贸易流在全球范围内的重要性持续增长。
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引用次数: 14
The Impact of Single Windows on Trade 单一窗口对贸易的影响
Pub Date : 2020-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12945
I. Martínez‐Zarzoso, S. Chelala
This paper is the first that quantifies the impact of single windows (SWs) on international trade globally. SWs function as a single point of entry and exit of the goods traded internationally and are therefore intended to facilitate trade. Using a structural gravity model for a panel of 176 countries from 1995 to 2017, we apply a log–log and a Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator (PPML) with multidimensional fixed effects to evaluate the extent to which export and import flows vary depending on whether or not countries have operational SWs. The main results from the linearised gravity model suggest that total trade between two countries with functioning SWs increases by about 37%, of which 23 corresponds to exports and 14 to imports. The result from the PPML estimation also indicates a positive and significant effect, which is however much smaller in magnitude.
本文首次量化了单一窗口对全球国际贸易的影响。SWs作为国际贸易货物的单一进出点,因此旨在促进贸易。使用1995年至2017年176个国家的结构重力模型,我们应用具有多维固定效应的log–log和泊松伪‐最大值‐似然估计器(PPML)来评估出口和进口流量根据国家是否拥有可操作的SWs而变化的程度。线性引力模型的主要结果表明,两个拥有正常运作的国有经济的国家之间的贸易总额增加了约37%,其中23个对应于出口,14个对应于进口。PPML估计的结果也表明了积极和显著的影响,但其幅度要小得多。
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引用次数: 5
The Income Inequality, Financial Depth and Economic Growth Nexus in China 中国收入不平等、金融深度与经济增长关系
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12825
Sharon G. M. Koh, Grace H. Y. Lee, E. Bomhoff
Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short‐run and long‐run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two‐step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth‐growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality‐growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality‐widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality‐narrowing or income‐equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U‐shape income equalising effect significantly.
尽管中国经济快速增长,但收入不平等现象仍在加剧。收入不平等可能影响未来的发展,导致社会紧张或政治不稳定。我们的研究考察了三个重要宏观经济指标收入不平等、经济增长和金融深度之间的短期运行和长期运行关系。我们利用ARDL界和格兰杰因果关系的两步程序进行分析。边界检验表明,长期来看,收入不平等、金融深度和经济增长之间存在协整关系。在第二步中,我们使用格兰杰因果关系方法。结果表明,短期内金融深度增长之间存在双向因果关系,不平等增长之间存在单向因果关系。从长期来看,结果表明增长和金融深度决定了基尼系数。我们的研究结果为经济增长和向私营部门提供的信贷增加所造成的不平等扩大效应提供了支持。在研究期间,我们没有发现不平等缩小或收入平衡长期效应的证据。政府在不到十年前开始实施的包容性增长政策,可能没有对我们捕捉到倒u形收入均衡效应产生显著影响。
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引用次数: 26
Immigration, Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Dynamics 移民、不确定性和宏观经济动态
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12865
M. Donadelli, Luca Gerotto, M. Lucchetta, Daniela Arzu
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of rising migration uncertainty in four advanced economies (i.e. US, UK, Germany and France). Migration uncertainty is first captured by the Migration Policy Uncertainty (MPUI) and the Migration Fear (MFI) news‐based indexes developed by Baker et al. (Immigration fears and policy uncertainty, 2015), and then by a novel Google Trend Migration Uncertainty Index (GTMU) based on the frequency of Internet searches for the term ‘immigration’. VAR investigations suggest that the macroeconomic implications of rising migration uncertainty differ across countries. Moreover, news‐based and Google search‐based migration fear shocks generate different macroeconomic effects. For instance, in the US (France), MPUI, MFI and GTMU shocks all improve (undermine) production and labour market conditions in the medium run. For Germany and the UK, mixed evidence is found, suggesting that increasing media attention on migration phenomena and rising population's interest in migration‐related issues influence people's mood differently. The observed heterogeneity in the macroeconomic effects of rising migration uncertainty can be explained by cross‐country gaps in (a) the level of labour market rigidity, (b) the degree of people's happiness and life satisfaction and (c) the percentage of graduates.
本文考察了四个发达经济体(即美国、英国、德国和法国)移民不确定性上升对宏观经济的影响。移民不确定性首先由Baker等人开发的移民政策不确定性(MPUI)和移民恐惧(MFI)新闻指数(移民恐惧和政策不确定性,2015)捕获,然后由基于互联网搜索“移民”一词的频率的新颖的谷歌趋势移民不确定性指数(GTMU)捕获。VAR调查表明,移民不确定性上升对宏观经济的影响因国家而异。此外,基于新闻和基于谷歌搜索的移民恐惧冲击会产生不同的宏观经济影响。例如,在美国(法国),MPUI、MFI和GTMU冲击都能在中期改善(破坏)生产和劳动力市场状况。对于德国和英国,发现的证据好坏参半,这表明媒体对移民现象的关注越来越多,人口对移民相关问题的兴趣越来越大,对人们情绪的影响不同。观察到的移民不确定性上升对宏观经济影响的异质性可以用以下方面的国家间差距来解释:(a)劳动力市场刚性水平,(b)人们的幸福程度和生活满意度,以及(c)毕业生比例。
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引用次数: 6
The Effects of Bilateral Attitudes on Imports 双边态度对进口的影响
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12867
Xiaohua Bao, Qing Liu, Larry D. Qiu, Daming Zhu
Research based on the gravity model has shown that non‐economic factors affect international trade, and recent studies have shown that people's perception affects economic exchange. In this study, we explore the effects of attitudes on bilateral trade. Using survey data from the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Projects for 68 countries from 2002 to 2015, we find that a more favourable attitude of a country towards another country will increase the former country's imports from the latter. The result is robust to an endogeneity check, to different measures of attitudes and to different estimation methods. However, heterogeneity is observed across different types of goods and countries. The result holds for trade in intermediate and consumer goods, but the effects are not statistically significant for capital goods. The effects are statistically significant for bilateral trade between different country groups, except for high‐income countries' imports from non‐high‐income countries.
基于引力模型的研究表明,非经济因素影响国际贸易,最近的研究表明,人们的感知影响经济交换。在本研究中,我们探讨了态度对双边贸易的影响。利用皮尤研究中心2002年至2015年对68个国家的全球态度项目的调查数据,我们发现,一个国家对另一个国家更有利的态度会增加前者从后者的进口。结果对内生性检验、不同的态度度量和不同的估计方法都具有鲁棒性。然而,在不同类型的商品和国家之间存在异质性。这一结果适用于中间产品和消费品贸易,但对资本品的影响在统计上并不显著。除了高收入国家从非高收入国家的进口外,不同国家群体之间的双边贸易在统计上具有显著的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Tariffs and Formation of Free Trade Agreements Networks 关税和自由贸易协定网络的形成
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12868
Jung Hur, Larry D. Qiu
This paper examines the formation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) on the basis of country heterogeneity in the tariff level. We demonstrate that a country's unilateral incentive to form an FTA depends on the relative magnitudes of the (negative) market concession effect and the (positive) market expansion effect, both of which are determined by the tariff levels of the two FTA partner countries. Global welfare is maximised when all country pairs form FTAs. Two countries in equilibrium are more likely to form an FTA when their tariff gap is smaller or when their tariff levels are neither very high nor very low. This finding is robust to several extensions of the model. Our preliminary empirical analysis provides some evidence for the finding.
本文从关税水平的国家异质性出发,考察了双边自由贸易协定的形成。我们证明了一个国家建立自由贸易协定的单边激励取决于(负)市场特许权效应和(正)市场扩张效应的相对大小,这两者都是由两个自由贸易协定伙伴国的关税水平决定的。当所有国家结成自由贸易协定时,全球福利就会最大化。处于平衡状态的两个国家在关税差距较小或关税水平既不很高也不很低的情况下更有可能达成自由贸易协定。这一发现对于模型的几个扩展来说是稳健的。我们的初步实证分析为这一发现提供了一些证据。
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引用次数: 2
Bank Credit, Public Financial Incentives, Tax Financial Incentives and Export Performance During the Global Financial Crisis 全球金融危机期间的银行信贷、公共财政激励、税收财政激励与出口绩效
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12848
L. Okafor, Mita Bhattacharya, N. Apergis
This paper investigates the extent to which access to credit, public financial incentives and tax financial incentives affect export performance using the EU‐EFIGE/Bruegel‐Unicredit data set, covering firms within Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and the UK during the 2008 global financial crisis. The results show that firms receiving credit or benefiting from public financial incentives display higher export intensity and export a greater number of product lines compared to those that did not, especially in countries with better access to credit and/or financial incentives during the crisis. Further, firms benefiting from tax financial incentives show a better export performance compared to those that did not, regardless of the degree of access to credit and/or financial incentives in the country in which they operate. In addition, the effect of access to credit and public finance incentives on export performance is found to be size‐dependent, while the effect of tax financial incentives is not. We suggest that governments should promote publicly funded financial incentives along with conventional schemes, such as R&D subsidies, to promote exports, particularly during a period of financial crisis.
本文使用EU - EFIGE/Bruegel - Unicredit数据集,研究了2008年全球金融危机期间奥地利、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、匈牙利和英国的企业获得信贷、公共财政激励和税收财政激励对出口业绩的影响程度。结果表明,与没有获得信贷或公共财政激励的公司相比,获得信贷或公共财政激励的公司出口强度更高,出口的产品线数量也更多,特别是在危机期间获得信贷和/或财政激励的机会更好的国家。此外,受益于税收财政激励措施的公司,无论在其经营所在国获得信贷和/或财政激励措施的程度如何,其出口业绩都比未受益于税收财政激励措施的公司好。此外,获得信贷和公共财政激励对出口绩效的影响被发现是规模依赖的,而税收财政激励的影响则不是。我们建议,各国政府应在常规计划(如研发补贴)的基础上,推动公共资助的财政激励措施,以促进出口,尤其是在金融危机期间。
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引用次数: 21
Input Trade Liberalisation, Institution and Markup: Evidence from China's Accession to the WTO 投入品贸易自由化、制度与加价:来自中国加入WTO的证据
Pub Date : 2019-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12872
Qilin Mao, Jiayun Xu
This paper investigates the effects of input trade liberalisation on firm markups and assesses how institutional environment affects such impacts by using Chinese firm‐level data. To identify the causal effects, we exploit the quasi‐natural experiment of China's WTO accession in 2001 and perform difference‐in‐differences estimation. The results show that input tariff liberalisation leads to a substantial increase in firm markups, and institutional environment significantly strengthens such an impact. We further uncover the underlying mechanisms through which input tariff liberalisation boosts firm markups, and show that both price and cost channels work for the input tariff cut effect on firm markups, of which the latter is much more important. In addition, we also demonstrate that input tariff cut significantly fosters aggregate markup growth, and the reallocation effect is found to be an important channel through which input tariff liberalisation boosts aggregate markup growth.
本文利用中国企业层面的数据,考察了投入贸易自由化对企业加价的影响,并评估了制度环境如何影响这种影响。为了确定因果关系,我们利用2001年中国加入WTO的准自然实验,并在差异估计中进行差异估计。结果表明,投入关税自由化导致企业加价大幅上升,制度环境显著强化了这种影响。我们进一步揭示了投入关税自由化促进企业加成的潜在机制,并表明价格和成本渠道都对投入关税削减对企业加成的影响起作用,其中后者更为重要。此外,我们还发现,降低投入关税显著促进了总加价增长,再分配效应是投入关税自由化促进总加价增长的重要渠道。
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引用次数: 2
Pitfalls in the Use of Foreign Direct Investment Statistics 利用外国直接投资统计的陷阱
Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12836
C. O’Mahony, F. Barry
Foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics are widely used to study the impact of international capital movements and multinational enterprise (MNE) activities. FDI intensity is also an important indicator of globalisation and economic integration. Datasets spanning long time periods and with broad country coverage have been employed in numerous studies to analyse various aspects of the determinants and consequences of FDI. Focusing on a relatively homogeneous group of six Western European EU countries, the present study finds major inconsistencies in the construction and coverage of these data both through time and across countries, leading to large discrepancies. Asymmetries will be far greater for broader groups of more economically and institutionally diverse countries. This study recommends extreme caution in drawing conclusions based on FDI data.
外国直接投资(FDI)统计被广泛用于研究国际资本流动和跨国企业(MNE)活动的影响。FDI强度也是全球化和经济一体化的重要指标。在许多研究中,采用了长时间和广泛国家覆盖的数据集来分析外国直接投资的决定因素和后果的各个方面。本研究聚焦于六个相对同质的西欧欧盟国家,发现这些数据的构建和覆盖在时间和国家之间存在重大不一致,导致了巨大的差异。在经济和制度更加多样化的国家中,更广泛的群体的不对称性将会大得多。本研究建议在根据外国直接投资数据得出结论时极为谨慎。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Wiley-Blackwell: World Economy
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