Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA167508
Loredany Consule Crespo Rodrigues, A. P. Gomes, Evandro Camargos Teixeira
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of corruption on the efficiency of institutions. First, the institutional efficiency index was calculated by data envelopment analysis. Through these measures, it was found that institutionally efficient countries are the least corrupt and corruption negatively impacts the efficiency of institutions. Therefore, considering the relevance of institutions for the growth and development of countries, the importance of formulating public policies that fight corruption is emphasized, because in this way, institutions will become more efficient and the countries economically more prosperous.
{"title":"Efeito da corrupção sobre a eficiência institucional dos países","authors":"Loredany Consule Crespo Rodrigues, A. P. Gomes, Evandro Camargos Teixeira","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA167508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA167508","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of corruption on the efficiency of institutions. First, the institutional efficiency index was calculated by data envelopment analysis. Through these measures, it was found that institutionally efficient countries are the least corrupt and corruption negatively impacts the efficiency of institutions. Therefore, considering the relevance of institutions for the growth and development of countries, the importance of formulating public policies that fight corruption is emphasized, because in this way, institutions will become more efficient and the countries economically more prosperous.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44825283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA164754
Fábio Nishimura
Housing and health-related issues are typical concerns of developing countries since their consequences usually lead to deadly diseases. Hence, in order to improve the assertiveness of public policies, minimize the divergence between actions proposed by different studies and contribute to mitigate those issues, this paper seeks to understand the relative impacts of the proposed policies as well as their efficiency. Thus, this paper evaluates the Brazilian Rental Housing Program (RHP) using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) model, a strategy that is strengthened by the performance of robustness tests. As a result, we verified that RHP was able to reduce deaths from sanitation-related diseases by up to 11% and that this effect increases over time.
{"title":"Housing and sanitation-related diseases","authors":"Fábio Nishimura","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA164754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA164754","url":null,"abstract":"Housing and health-related issues are typical concerns of developing countries since their consequences usually lead to deadly diseases. Hence, in order to improve the assertiveness of public policies, minimize the divergence between actions proposed by different studies and contribute to mitigate those issues, this paper seeks to understand the relative impacts of the proposed policies as well as their efficiency. Thus, this paper evaluates the Brazilian Rental Housing Program (RHP) using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) model, a strategy that is strengthened by the performance of robustness tests. As a result, we verified that RHP was able to reduce deaths from sanitation-related diseases by up to 11% and that this effect increases over time.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46848904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA161194
A. Mota, Daniel Lima Miquelluti, V. Ozaki
Crop insurance has gained greater attention in Brazil since the beginning of the past decade, with the implementation of the Rural Insurance Premium Subvention Program. The present study tested the performance of Machine Learning algorithms for insurers to forecast the occurrence of a claim, using data from policies and climate databases between the years of 2006 and 2017. The Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and k-Nearest Neighbors algorithms were tested. The second method showed a better predictive performance of claims. However, all methods presented a low predictive capacity for the occurrence of claims.
{"title":"Predição de sinistros agrícolas: uma abordagem comparativa utilizando aprendizagem de máquina","authors":"A. Mota, Daniel Lima Miquelluti, V. Ozaki","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA161194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA161194","url":null,"abstract":"Crop insurance has gained greater attention in Brazil since the beginning of the past decade, with the implementation of the Rural Insurance Premium Subvention Program. The present study tested the performance of Machine Learning algorithms for insurers to forecast the occurrence of a claim, using data from policies and climate databases between the years of 2006 and 2017. The Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and k-Nearest Neighbors algorithms were tested. The second method showed a better predictive performance of claims. However, all methods presented a low predictive capacity for the occurrence of claims.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43151292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA157905
Cristiano Domingues da Silva, Natanael Soares Leite, Felipe de Sousa Bastos, Frankielison Maia
O estudo das relacoes de longo prazo entre os gastos publicos e o nivel de renda e fundamental para auxiliar os formadores de politicas publicas na tomada de decisao, sobretudo quando a analise se concentra nas componentes do gasto. Adotou-se como estrategia econometrica a metodologia CS-ARDL-DFE, para os estados brasileiros no periodo 1986-2013, nos moldes sugeridos por Chudik & Pesaran (2015). Os resultados apontam que as despesas publicas exercem impacto positivo sobre o crescimento economico de longo prazo, com as despesas de capital e de seguranca reportando influencia significativamente maior quando confrontadas com as despesas correntes e de infraestrutura, respectivamente.
{"title":"Efeitos de curto e longo prazo das despesas públicas e das suas componentes sobre a renda dos estados brasileiros no período 1986-2013","authors":"Cristiano Domingues da Silva, Natanael Soares Leite, Felipe de Sousa Bastos, Frankielison Maia","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA157905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA157905","url":null,"abstract":"O estudo das relacoes de longo prazo entre os gastos publicos e o nivel de renda e fundamental para auxiliar os formadores de politicas publicas na tomada de decisao, sobretudo quando a analise se concentra nas componentes do gasto. Adotou-se como estrategia econometrica a metodologia CS-ARDL-DFE, para os estados brasileiros no periodo 1986-2013, nos moldes sugeridos por Chudik & Pesaran (2015). Os resultados apontam que as despesas publicas exercem impacto positivo sobre o crescimento economico de longo prazo, com as despesas de capital e de seguranca reportando influencia significativamente maior quando confrontadas com as despesas correntes e de infraestrutura, respectivamente.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64737960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA153614
Nadiejda Deane Sá, A. Zoghbi, Rafael Terra de Menezes
This study aims to assess the impact of loan-to-value ceiling applied by Resolution BCB No. 4,271 on the mortgage market in September 2013. Based on public aggregated data, we assessed the effect of the regulatory change on the loan-to-value and on quality of the portfolio using impact evaluation techniques that aim to estimate true causal effects. Results suggest the intervention did not reduce total mortgage loans. Interrupted time series and differences-in-differences estimates show statistically significant effects on the quality of the portfolio measured by the proportion of poorly rated credits.
{"title":"Impacts of loan-to-value ceilings in the Brazilian mortgage loans","authors":"Nadiejda Deane Sá, A. Zoghbi, Rafael Terra de Menezes","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA153614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA153614","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to assess the impact of loan-to-value ceiling applied by Resolution BCB No. 4,271 on the mortgage market in September 2013. Based on public aggregated data, we assessed the effect of the regulatory change on the loan-to-value and on quality of the portfolio using impact evaluation techniques that aim to estimate true causal effects. Results suggest the intervention did not reduce total mortgage loans. Interrupted time series and differences-in-differences estimates show statistically significant effects on the quality of the portfolio measured by the proportion of poorly rated credits.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47360089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA156324
M. Reis
A baixa qualidade da educação costuma ser apontada como um dos fatores responsáveis pela incidência de sobre-educação, pois trabalhadores com determinado nível educacional não estariam capacitados para exercer as atividades compatíveis com os anos de estudo que completaram. O objetivo desse artigo é investigar a relação entre a rede de ensino e a probabilidade de sobre-educação no Brasil, explorando as diferenças de qualidade entre instituições públicas e privadas. De acordo com os resultados, entre os indivíduos com ensino médio, os egressos de escolas públicas tem maior probabilidade de serem sobre-educados, enquanto para o ensino superior é verificado o contrário.
{"title":"Os ensinos público e privado no Brasil e a incidência de sobre-educação no mercado de trabalho","authors":"M. Reis","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA156324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA156324","url":null,"abstract":"A baixa qualidade da educação costuma ser apontada como um dos fatores responsáveis pela incidência de sobre-educação, pois trabalhadores com determinado nível educacional não estariam capacitados para exercer as atividades compatíveis com os anos de estudo que completaram. O objetivo desse artigo é investigar a relação entre a rede de ensino e a probabilidade de sobre-educação no Brasil, explorando as diferenças de qualidade entre instituições públicas e privadas. De acordo com os resultados, entre os indivíduos com ensino médio, os egressos de escolas públicas tem maior probabilidade de serem sobre-educados, enquanto para o ensino superior é verificado o contrário.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43128810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/ea148363
Ermeson Henrique Silva dos Reis, Reynaldo Rubem Ferreira Júinor, A. Silva
O presente trabalho tem por objetivo identificar a influência das flutuações nas expectativas de inflação sobre o Regime de Metas de inflação (RMI), em especial sobre o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) no Brasil. Destarte, foi possível observar que a expectativa de inflação impacta de maneira positiva a inflação brasileira desde o primeiro mês. No mais, a formação da expectativa futura de inflação é influenciada por um conjunto de variáveis que impactam a inflação de maneiras diferentes tanto em magnitude quando em tempo de duração.
{"title":"Regime de metas de inflação do Brasil: a influência das expectativas inflacionárias","authors":"Ermeson Henrique Silva dos Reis, Reynaldo Rubem Ferreira Júinor, A. Silva","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/ea148363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea148363","url":null,"abstract":"O presente trabalho tem por objetivo identificar a influência das flutuações nas expectativas de inflação sobre o Regime de Metas de inflação (RMI), em especial sobre o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) no Brasil. Destarte, foi possível observar que a expectativa de inflação impacta de maneira positiva a inflação brasileira desde o primeiro mês. No mais, a formação da expectativa futura de inflação é influenciada por um conjunto de variáveis que impactam a inflação de maneiras diferentes tanto em magnitude quando em tempo de duração.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43621911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA155701
Valéria Faria dos Santos, L. Maciel, R. Ballini
This article aims to investigate the impact of hedgers and speculators on the grain price returns volatility in the United States between 2000 and 2015 by incorporating the variations from future contracts in GARCH family models. To verify how the impact of these investors over time, the models were recursively estimated. Furthermore, a BEKK-GARCH model was used to analyze inter-market effects. The results showed that hedgers and speculators have a moderate impact on the volatility of agricultural markets, with the most prominent impact being after the 2008 crisis and when the correlation among the commodities decreased.
{"title":"Efeito das operações de hedge e especulação sobre a volatilidade dos preços de commodities agrícolas nos EUA","authors":"Valéria Faria dos Santos, L. Maciel, R. Ballini","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA155701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA155701","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to investigate the impact of hedgers and speculators on the grain price returns volatility in the United States between 2000 and 2015 by incorporating the variations from future contracts in GARCH family models. To verify how the impact of these investors over time, the models were recursively estimated. Furthermore, a BEKK-GARCH model was used to analyze inter-market effects. The results showed that hedgers and speculators have a moderate impact on the volatility of agricultural markets, with the most prominent impact being after the 2008 crisis and when the correlation among the commodities decreased.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49139799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA156691
R. A. Arraes, Francisca Zilania Mariano
The impact of vocational schools on student’s performance is controversial in the world literature. Thus, this paper contributes to such debate by evaluating the performance of Vocational Education State School (VESS) students on secondary education exams in a case study for the state of Ceará (Brazil). This is done through matching techniques applied to a unique longitudinal database. Among the results, it is highlighted that the mean effect of the VESS treatment is positive and significant in all knowledge areas of the exams, especially in Writing, for which the effect of VESSs on student performance exceeded that of students from regular schools by 40%.
{"title":"Efficacy of vocational education: a longitudinal analysis","authors":"R. A. Arraes, Francisca Zilania Mariano","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA156691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA156691","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of vocational schools on student’s performance is controversial in the world literature. Thus, this paper contributes to such debate by evaluating the performance of Vocational Education State School (VESS) students on secondary education exams in a case study for the state of Ceará (Brazil). This is done through matching techniques applied to a unique longitudinal database. Among the results, it is highlighted that the mean effect of the VESS treatment is positive and significant in all knowledge areas of the exams, especially in Writing, for which the effect of VESSs on student performance exceeded that of students from regular schools by 40%.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47065689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.11606/1980-5330/EA171104
A. Marinho, Simone de Souza Cardoso, V. V. Almeida
Avaliamos a eficiência técnica na provisão de serviços de saúde no Brasil, comparado com os países da América Latina, do Caribe e da OCDE. Estimamos um modelo econométrico em que outputs, entre os quais esperança de vida ao nascer; e índice de sobrevivência infantil, e uma variável de dispêndio, o gasto em saúde per capita, são utilizados para avaliar os serviços de saúde dos países. Foi utilizada a metodologia conhecida com Análise de Fronteiras Estocásticas (Stochastic Frontier Analysis - SFA). Nosso país apresenta indicadores de saúde desfavoráveis em relação aos países da amostra, e escores de eficiência muito baixos. Entretanto, em termos de posição no ranking de eficiência técnica relativa, o desempenho doBrasil é razoavelmente aceitável.
{"title":"Avaliação comparativa dos sistemas de saúde do Brasil e de países da América Latina, do Caribe, e da OCDE com o uso de fronteiras estocásticas","authors":"A. Marinho, Simone de Souza Cardoso, V. V. Almeida","doi":"10.11606/1980-5330/EA171104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/EA171104","url":null,"abstract":"Avaliamos a eficiência técnica na provisão de serviços de saúde no Brasil, comparado com os países da América Latina, do Caribe e da OCDE. Estimamos um modelo econométrico em que outputs, entre os quais esperança de vida ao nascer; e índice de sobrevivência infantil, e uma variável de dispêndio, o gasto em saúde per capita, são utilizados para avaliar os serviços de saúde dos países. Foi utilizada a metodologia conhecida com Análise de Fronteiras Estocásticas (Stochastic Frontier Analysis - SFA). Nosso país apresenta indicadores de saúde desfavoráveis em relação aos países da amostra, e escores de eficiência muito baixos. Entretanto, em termos de posição no ranking de eficiência técnica relativa, o desempenho doBrasil é razoavelmente aceitável.","PeriodicalId":35050,"journal":{"name":"Economia Aplicada","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43832785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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