Pub Date : 2020-04-24DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2020.10028871
R. Moreira, C. O. Santos
The present work provides city managers a tool to strategically deploy a flood risk assessment and management, with statistical, technological and graphical approaches. For risk assessment, the return period of the years between 1977 and 2017 was analysed, comprising a historical series of 40 years of maximum quotas and maximum flows. Researchers used the QuantumGis 2.18 platform to deploy flood risk mapping. Maps with flood risk levels within the urban area of study are presented, built as 3D models. The calculation of the return period estimation for flood risk is a reliable tool to understand the dynamics of a water body inserted in an urban area. Thus, it is possible to deploy scenarios with statistical background to aid decision making with regard to risk assessment. Technology-based information is key to support decision making, helping cities to raise funds to deploy risk management actions. The use of a free and open source GIS software such as QuantumGis presents a low cost, efficient and interface-friendly platform to solve flood management issues.
{"title":"Flood risk assessment and management for urban areas in Brazilian Pantanal using free and open source GIS software","authors":"R. Moreira, C. O. Santos","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2020.10028871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2020.10028871","url":null,"abstract":"The present work provides city managers a tool to strategically deploy a flood risk assessment and management, with statistical, technological and graphical approaches. For risk assessment, the return period of the years between 1977 and 2017 was analysed, comprising a historical series of 40 years of maximum quotas and maximum flows. Researchers used the QuantumGis 2.18 platform to deploy flood risk mapping. Maps with flood risk levels within the urban area of study are presented, built as 3D models. The calculation of the return period estimation for flood risk is a reliable tool to understand the dynamics of a water body inserted in an urban area. Thus, it is possible to deploy scenarios with statistical background to aid decision making with regard to risk assessment. Technology-based information is key to support decision making, helping cities to raise funds to deploy risk management actions. The use of a free and open source GIS software such as QuantumGis presents a low cost, efficient and interface-friendly platform to solve flood management issues.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48355308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2020.106175
D. Ivanov, B. Sokolov, E. Serova, R. Yusupov
The main problems and features of combined approach to the complex objects control and management stability analysis are investigated in the paper. Analytical-simulation scenarios and scenarios of intelligent models and systems execution for complex objects control and management stability analysis are given. The paper describes a particular group of models and modelling systems - hybrid intelligent models and systems that allow in conditions of uncertainty, incomplete initial data and complex interdependence between elements of complex objects to evaluate the implications of realization of various scenarios and risk evaluation. The investigations have shown successful possibility of risks evaluation by the combined implementation of the analytical-simulation models and algorithms, and ANFIS method - the method of hybrid neural-fuzzy modelling.
{"title":"Combined approach to the complex objects control and stability analysis of management decisions","authors":"D. Ivanov, B. Sokolov, E. Serova, R. Yusupov","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2020.106175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2020.106175","url":null,"abstract":"The main problems and features of combined approach to the complex objects control and management stability analysis are investigated in the paper. Analytical-simulation scenarios and scenarios of intelligent models and systems execution for complex objects control and management stability analysis are given. The paper describes a particular group of models and modelling systems - hybrid intelligent models and systems that allow in conditions of uncertainty, incomplete initial data and complex interdependence between elements of complex objects to evaluate the implications of realization of various scenarios and risk evaluation. The investigations have shown successful possibility of risks evaluation by the combined implementation of the analytical-simulation models and algorithms, and ANFIS method - the method of hybrid neural-fuzzy modelling.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJRAM.2020.106175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49496460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-30DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2020.10027891
E. Solozhentsev, E. Karaseva
In this paper we are considering data structures in economic systems. These structures can be used to construct logical-probabilistic risk models intended for digital management of safety and quality of systems. Transformation of any database into a system of logical equations is described, which is the basis for constructing logical-probabilistic models of safety or quality. We give examples how the database is used to construct models of the credit risk in banks and the risk and efficiency of restaurants. Also we present examples of using complex structure data to construct a model for management of a country's innovation system quality and simple structure data for construction of a model for assessment of the failure risk for one innovation. The special software 'Arbiter' and 'Expa' for management in economics are described. The term 'digital management' is defined and computer network components for digital management of systems in economics are given.
{"title":"Data structures, logical-probabilistic models and digital management of the safety and quality of systems in the economics","authors":"E. Solozhentsev, E. Karaseva","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2020.10027891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2020.10027891","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we are considering data structures in economic systems. These structures can be used to construct logical-probabilistic risk models intended for digital management of safety and quality of systems. Transformation of any database into a system of logical equations is described, which is the basis for constructing logical-probabilistic models of safety or quality. We give examples how the database is used to construct models of the credit risk in banks and the risk and efficiency of restaurants. Also we present examples of using complex structure data to construct a model for management of a country's innovation system quality and simple structure data for construction of a model for assessment of the failure risk for one innovation. The special software 'Arbiter' and 'Expa' for management in economics are described. The term 'digital management' is defined and computer network components for digital management of systems in economics are given.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48417875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-25DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2020.10027890
M. Sigova, I. Klyuchnikov, S. Vasilev, A. Zatevakhina
Digital financial services continue to expand and replace the delivery of traditional financial services to the customers. The purpose of the study is twofold. First, to consider the growing interest in price modelling for financial assets. The second goal is to trace the role of digitisation in finance on changes in the methodology of both modelling and pricing of financial assets. Digitisation automates financial products and services, as a result of which the quality of financial services is increasing, the set of offers is expanding, and the financial markets are growing numerically. The transformation of finance to 'digit' allows us to provide a real basis for the widespread introduction of Bayesian methods of modelling and valuation of financial assets. The article introduces preliminary premises for the demarcation of classical and digital finance, as well as traditional and new methods of pricing and predictive modelling in connection with the wide implementation of 'big data' and 'digit'.
{"title":"The impact of the digitisation of the financial industry on the modelling and pricing of financial assets","authors":"M. Sigova, I. Klyuchnikov, S. Vasilev, A. Zatevakhina","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2020.10027890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2020.10027890","url":null,"abstract":"Digital financial services continue to expand and replace the delivery of traditional financial services to the customers. The purpose of the study is twofold. First, to consider the growing interest in price modelling for financial assets. The second goal is to trace the role of digitisation in finance on changes in the methodology of both modelling and pricing of financial assets. Digitisation automates financial products and services, as a result of which the quality of financial services is increasing, the set of offers is expanding, and the financial markets are growing numerically. The transformation of finance to 'digit' allows us to provide a real basis for the widespread introduction of Bayesian methods of modelling and valuation of financial assets. The article introduces preliminary premises for the demarcation of classical and digital finance, as well as traditional and new methods of pricing and predictive modelling in connection with the wide implementation of 'big data' and 'digit'.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49608902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-25DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2020.10027894
M. Bakumenko, A. Sigal
This study aims to evaluate the impact of the ethical behaviour of firms on a national economy's competitiveness, based on data given in Global Competitiveness Reports. The firm is a complex open dynamic socio-economic system. Firms' sustainable development is impossible without a good reputation. In its decision making, the firm must comply with the code of ethics. The introduction of new technologies and innovations can result in extra risks and threats for the firm's external environment. Firms shall do no harm to their external environment. The firm's ethical behaviour contributes to preservation of its competitiveness and, accordingly, to its safety. The research paper constructs several models (linear equations) of dependence between the ethical behaviour of firms and the Global Competitiveness Index. We checked the constructed models for adequacy using an F-test. Our findings testify to a rather strong impact of the ethical behaviour of firms on national economies' competitiveness globally.
{"title":"Concerning evaluation of ethics impact on national economy's competitiveness","authors":"M. Bakumenko, A. Sigal","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2020.10027894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2020.10027894","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to evaluate the impact of the ethical behaviour of firms on a national economy's competitiveness, based on data given in Global Competitiveness Reports. The firm is a complex open dynamic socio-economic system. Firms' sustainable development is impossible without a good reputation. In its decision making, the firm must comply with the code of ethics. The introduction of new technologies and innovations can result in extra risks and threats for the firm's external environment. Firms shall do no harm to their external environment. The firm's ethical behaviour contributes to preservation of its competitiveness and, accordingly, to its safety. The research paper constructs several models (linear equations) of dependence between the ethical behaviour of firms and the Global Competitiveness Index. We checked the constructed models for adequacy using an F-test. Our findings testify to a rather strong impact of the ethical behaviour of firms on national economies' competitiveness globally.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45115877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-25DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2020.10027889
M. Vlasova, I. Kruglova, A. Khlutkov, O. Stepchenkova
The article examines the problems of monitoring the activities of small and medium-sized businesses in the framework of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation. The lack of economic information on the activities of small and medium-sized businesses hinders a competent assessment of the effectiveness of state support programs for business and the development of entrepreneurial ecosystems. The authors propose to use methods of predictive modelling to improve the economic security of the state and create effective innovative business ecosystems.
{"title":"Predictive modelling of economic safety on the example of ecosystem of small and medium-sized business","authors":"M. Vlasova, I. Kruglova, A. Khlutkov, O. Stepchenkova","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2020.10027889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2020.10027889","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the problems of monitoring the activities of small and medium-sized businesses in the framework of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation. The lack of economic information on the activities of small and medium-sized businesses hinders a competent assessment of the effectiveness of state support programs for business and the development of entrepreneurial ecosystems. The authors propose to use methods of predictive modelling to improve the economic security of the state and create effective innovative business ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41903493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-25DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2020.10027892
E. Solozhentsev, V. Karasev
As a result of the analysis, we establish throughout the world - there is a critical situation in economic management. A way out of the critical situation, based on new knowledge, solving new tasks and event-based digital management of structural complex systems in economics, is proposed. The new objects in management of economics are chosen: public authorities, socio-economic systems, processes of quality management of the socio-economic life of a person, safe living space. The management criteria are safety and quality of objects and systems. The new knowledge for management in economics is introduced: new types of Boolean event-propositions, risk scenarios for system failure, new types of logical and probabilistic risk models. We propose to solve the following new tasks in economics: modelling, analysis and management of one system and a group of logically unified systems (models); management of the State and development of systems; quality assessment of control systems. The special software for event-related managing economics is described. The content of the training course of additional education for economists and teachers is given.
{"title":"The digital management of structural complex systems in economics","authors":"E. Solozhentsev, V. Karasev","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2020.10027892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2020.10027892","url":null,"abstract":"As a result of the analysis, we establish throughout the world - there is a critical situation in economic management. A way out of the critical situation, based on new knowledge, solving new tasks and event-based digital management of structural complex systems in economics, is proposed. The new objects in management of economics are chosen: public authorities, socio-economic systems, processes of quality management of the socio-economic life of a person, safe living space. The management criteria are safety and quality of objects and systems. The new knowledge for management in economics is introduced: new types of Boolean event-propositions, risk scenarios for system failure, new types of logical and probabilistic risk models. We propose to solve the following new tasks in economics: modelling, analysis and management of one system and a group of logically unified systems (models); management of the State and development of systems; quality assessment of control systems. The special software for event-related managing economics is described. The content of the training course of additional education for economists and teachers is given.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41403805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-06DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.91042
M. Dendera-Gruszka, E. Kulińska
The discussed problem is associated with the analysis of risk factors affecting supply chain management in the heavy industry sector based on the analysis of entities operating in this industry. During the research, several aspects of key importance in supply chain management in the heavy industry sector were identified. The use of the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method in research has enabled the detection of defects in supply chain management and analysis of factors that may negatively affect the flow of goods. During the research, potential design flaws and the effect of these flaws were identified, indicating the class, cause, and occurrence.
{"title":"Supply Chain FMEA Risk Analysis for the Heavy Industry Sector","authors":"M. Dendera-Gruszka, E. Kulińska","doi":"10.5772/intechopen.91042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91042","url":null,"abstract":"The discussed problem is associated with the analysis of risk factors affecting supply chain management in the heavy industry sector based on the analysis of entities operating in this industry. During the research, several aspects of key importance in supply chain management in the heavy industry sector were identified. The use of the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method in research has enabled the detection of defects in supply chain management and analysis of factors that may negatively affect the flow of goods. During the research, potential design flaws and the effect of these flaws were identified, indicating the class, cause, and occurrence.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"394 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74308581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-14DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.90825
M. Różycki
Risk assessment is the result of assumptions of people performing it. Therefore, its use may be limited, because in principle it is difficult to predict events that we are not aware of. A certain solution to this problem seems to be the application of inception theory and quantum physics assumptions to describe future phenomena. The aim of the study will be to demonstrate the experience of risk assessment attempts using quantum physics assumptions. The current application of new assumptions for risk assessment in the case of road infrastructure allows for the thesis that a change in the approach to risk assessment is necessary in all areas related to human activity.
{"title":"Application of Quantum Physics Assumptions for Risk Assessment","authors":"M. Różycki","doi":"10.5772/intechopen.90825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90825","url":null,"abstract":"Risk assessment is the result of assumptions of people performing it. Therefore, its use may be limited, because in principle it is difficult to predict events that we are not aware of. A certain solution to this problem seems to be the application of inception theory and quantum physics assumptions to describe future phenomena. The aim of the study will be to demonstrate the experience of risk assessment attempts using quantum physics assumptions. The current application of new assumptions for risk assessment in the case of road infrastructure allows for the thesis that a change in the approach to risk assessment is necessary in all areas related to human activity.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90433291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2020.10037198
G. Paché, M. Abdellaoui
{"title":"Resilience, vulnerability, and sustainability in aeronautics supply chains: an exploratory analysis in the Moroccan context","authors":"G. Paché, M. Abdellaoui","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2020.10037198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2020.10037198","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66701107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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