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The Impact of Oil and Gas Job Opportunities on Long Term Human Capital 油气行业就业机会对长期人力资本的影响
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3597176
Amanda Chuan
I exploit the geographic distribution of oil and gas resources to estimate how oil and gas jobs affect college enrollment and later life work outcomes. In the short term, a one standard deviation (equivalent to around 25 percentage points) rise in oil and gas labour share leads to a 1.7-2.8 percentage point decline in enrollment for men but not women, with effects concentrated among part-time enrollees. In the long term, leaving school to work early leads to permanent declines in formal human capital and work-related health. There is some evidence of positive impacts on employment and negative impacts on earnings. This paper contributes to 1) the literature studying how transitory industry shocks influence human capital over the lifecycle and 2) the literature that examines gender differences in college enrollment.
我利用石油和天然气资源的地理分布来估计石油和天然气工作如何影响大学入学率和以后的工作成果。在短期内,石油和天然气行业的劳动力份额每上升一个标准差(相当于约25个百分点),男性入学率就会下降1.7-2.8个百分点,而女性则不会,这种影响主要集中在非全日制入学率中。从长期来看,过早离校工作导致正式人力资本和与工作有关的健康状况永久性下降。有证据表明,这对就业有积极影响,对收入有消极影响。本文的贡献是:1)研究短暂的行业冲击如何影响人力资本的生命周期的文献;2)研究大学招生中的性别差异的文献。
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引用次数: 1
Responsible Sourcing: The First Step Is the Hardest 负责任的采购:第一步是最难的
Pub Date : 2020-07-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3656497
Pia Ramchandani, Hamsa Bastani, Ken Moon
Responsible sourcing is a priority for companies and consumers concerned with corporate social responsibility (CSR) in global supply chains. Most brands' product lines contain just a few products certified by third parties- which suggests that brands limit their efforts at ensuring that suppliers behave responsibly. In this paper, we examine a previously under-appreciated role of certifications: that certifications enable brands to learn about how to source responsibly. By successfully certifying even a single product, the certifying brand may enjoy positive, knowledge-based spillovers encouraging responsible sourcing throughout its product line. Using data on the responsible sourcing decisions of coffee brands in the $48B US consumer market, we find that certifying brands' rates of CSR violations (adjusted for disparities in production volume and detection) are similarly low regardless of whether the brand's portfolio is 3% certified or 100% certified- consistent with learning-based spillover effects. Certifying brands' violation rates are an estimated 61-78% lower than for comparable brands that make no CSR claims. While we find that brands making their own uncertified, on-packaging CSR claims also exhibit low CSR violation rates, their low violation rates are nearly entirely explained by the countries from which they source. In contrast, certifying brands appear uniquely able to source responsibly even from within "high-risk" countries. Our work novelly suggests that prevalent dual-sourcing may surprisingly amplify, rather than limit, responsible sourcing in supply chains, and that certified sourcing valuably develops the pool of responsible suppliers in high-risk countries.
在全球供应链中,负责任的采购是关注企业社会责任(CSR)的公司和消费者的优先事项。大多数品牌的产品线只包含少数经过第三方认证的产品,这表明品牌在确保供应商负责任方面的努力有限。在本文中,我们研究了以前被低估的认证作用:认证使品牌能够了解如何负责任地采购。通过成功认证哪怕是一个产品,认证品牌可能会享受到积极的、基于知识的溢出效应,鼓励整个产品线的负责任采购。利用美国480亿美元消费市场中咖啡品牌负责任采购决策的数据,我们发现,无论品牌的产品组合是3%的认证还是100%的认证,认证品牌的CSR违规率(根据产量和检测差异进行调整)都同样低,这与基于学习的溢出效应一致。据估计,获得认证的品牌的违规率比没有提出企业社会责任要求的同类品牌低61-78%。虽然我们发现,那些自己制作未经认证的、包装上的企业社会责任声明的品牌也表现出较低的企业社会责任违规率,但它们的低违规率几乎完全是由它们的来源国解释的。相比之下,获得认证的品牌似乎是唯一能够负责任地从“高风险”国家采购的品牌。我们的研究新颖地表明,普遍存在的双重采购可能会出人意料地扩大(而不是限制)供应链中负责任的采购,并且认证采购有价值地发展了高风险国家中负责任的供应商库。
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引用次数: 5
Cat Bonds and Other Risk-Linked Securities: Product Design and Evolution of the Market Cat债券和其他风险相关证券:产品设计和市场演变
Pub Date : 2012-01-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1997467
J. Cummins
This paper analyzes risk-linked securities as sources of risk capital for the insurance and reinsurance industries. Risk-linked securities are innovative financing devices that enable insurance risk to be sold in capital markets, raising funds that insurers and reinsurers can use to pay claims arising from mega-catastrophes and other loss events. The most prominent type of risk-linked security is the catastrophic risk (CAT) bond, which is a fully collateralized instrument that pays off on the occurrence of a defined catastrophic event. The CAT bond market has expanded significantly in recent years and now seems to have reached critical mass. Nontraditional risk financing instruments, including CAT bonds, industry loss warranties (ILWs), and sidecars, now represent a substantial component of the property catastrophe retrocession market.
本文分析了风险关联证券作为保险和再保险行业风险资本的来源。风险关联证券是一种创新的融资工具,它使保险风险能够在资本市场上出售,为保险公司和再保险公司筹集资金,用于支付巨灾和其他损失事件产生的索赔。风险关联证券中最突出的类型是巨灾风险债券(CAT),这是一种完全担保的工具,在定义的巨灾事件发生时获得回报。近年来,CAT债券市场大幅扩张,目前似乎已达到临界规模。非传统风险融资工具,包括CAT债券、行业损失担保(ilw)和sidecars,现在是房地产巨灾衰退市场的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 37
Lifecycle Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Household Optimal Consumption, Portfolio Choice, and Labor Supply 金融和经济危机对家庭最优消费、投资组合选择和劳动力供给的生命周期影响
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1960657
Jingjing Chai, Raimond H Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell, Ralph Rogalla
The direct financial impact of the financial crisis has been to deal a heavy blow to investment-based pensions; many workers lost a substantial portion of their retirement saving. The financial sector implosion produced an economic crisis for the rest of the economy via high unemployment and reduced labor earnings, which reduced household contributions to Social Security and some private pensions. Our research asks which types of individuals were most affected by these dual financial and economic shocks, and it also explores how people may react by changing their consumption, saving and investment, work and retirement, and annuitization decisions. We do so with a realistically calibrated lifecycle framework allowing for time-varying investment opportunities and countercyclical risky labor income dynamics. We show that households near retirement will reduce both short- and long-term consumption, boost work effort, and defer retirement. Younger cohorts will initially reduce their work hours, consumption, saving, and equity exposure; later in life, they will work more, retire later, consume less, invest more in stocks, save more, and reduce their demand for private annuities.
金融危机的直接金融影响是对以投资为基础的养老金造成沉重打击;许多工人失去了他们退休储蓄的很大一部分。金融部门的内爆通过高失业率和劳动力收入的减少,导致家庭对社会保障和一些私人养老金的贡献减少,从而给其他经济部门带来了经济危机。我们的研究询问了哪些类型的个人受到这双重金融和经济冲击的影响最大,并探讨了人们如何通过改变他们的消费、储蓄和投资、工作和退休以及年金化决策来做出反应。我们通过一个实际校准的生命周期框架来实现这一目标,该框架允许随时间变化的投资机会和反周期的风险劳动收入动态。我们表明,临近退休的家庭将减少短期和长期消费,增加工作努力,并推迟退休。较年轻的人群最初会减少他们的工作时间、消费、储蓄和股权敞口;在以后的生活中,他们会工作更多,退休更晚,消费更少,投资更多股票,储蓄更多,并减少对私人年金的需求。
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引用次数: 25
Trust in Public Institutions Over the Business Cycle 商业周期中对公共机构的信任
Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1787737
Betsey Stevenson, J. Wolfers
We document that trust in public institutions--and particularly trust in banks, business and government--has declined over recent years. U.S. time series evidence suggests that this partly reflects the pro-cyclical nature of trust in institutions. Cross-country comparisons reveal a clear legacy of the Great Recession, and those countries whose unemployment grew the most suffered the biggest loss in confidence in institutions, particularly in trust in government and the financial sector. Finally, analysis of several repeated cross-sections of confidence within U.S. states yields similar qualitative patterns, but much smaller magnitudes in response to state-specific shocks.
我们发现,公众对公共机构的信任——尤其是对银行、企业和政府的信任——近年来有所下降。美国时间序列证据表明,这在一定程度上反映了对机构信任的顺周期性质。跨国比较揭示了大衰退留下的一个明显的遗产,那些失业率增长最严重的国家对机构的信心损失最大,尤其是对政府和金融部门的信任。最后,对美国各州信心的几个重复横截面的分析得出了类似的定性模式,但对各州特定冲击的反应幅度要小得多。
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引用次数: 224
Bad Advice: Explaining the Persistence of Whole Life Insurance 坏建议:解释终身保险的持久性
Pub Date : 2011-02-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1786624
S. Anagol, Shawn Cole, Shayak Sarkar
We conduct a series of field experiments to evaluate two competing views of the role of financial intermediaries in providing product recommendations to potentially uninformed consumers. The first argues that financial intermediaries may provide valuable product education, helping consumers decide which of many complicated products is right for them. Even if commissions influence intermediary recommendations, consumers are sufficiently sophisticated to discount advice. The second, more sinister, view, argues that intermediaries recommend and sell products that maximize the agents well-being, with little regard to the need of the customer. Audit studies in the Indian insurance market find evidence consistent with the second view: agents recommend a product that provides them high commissions, though it is strictly dominated by alternative products. Consumers demonstrating lower levels of sophistication are more likely to be offered the wrong product. Finally, we exploit a natural experiment that occurred during out audits to test how disclosure requirements affect product recommendations. We find that requiring disclosure of commission levels makes agents less likely to recommend the product for which disclosure is required.
我们进行了一系列的实地实验,以评估金融中介机构在向潜在不知情的消费者提供产品推荐方面的作用的两种相互竞争的观点。第一种观点认为,金融中介机构可以提供有价值的产品教育,帮助消费者在众多复杂的产品中选择适合自己的产品。即使佣金影响中介的建议,消费者也足够老练,不会对建议打折扣。第二种观点更为邪恶,认为中间商推荐和销售的产品是为了使代理商的福利最大化,而很少考虑客户的需求。对印度保险市场的审计研究发现了与第二种观点相一致的证据:代理人推荐一种能给他们带来高额佣金的产品,尽管这种产品严格由替代产品主导。表现出较低水平的消费者更有可能被提供错误的产品。最后,我们利用在审计过程中发生的自然实验来测试披露要求如何影响产品推荐。我们发现,要求披露佣金水平使代理商不太可能推荐需要披露的产品。
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引用次数: 8
Longevity Risk Management in Singapore’s National Pension System 新加坡国家养老金制度的长寿风险管理
Pub Date : 2010-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1678079
Joelle H. Fong, O. Mitchell, Benedict S. K. Koh
Although annuities are a theoretically appealing way to manage longevity risk, in the real world relatively few consumers purchase them at retirement. To counteract the possibility of retirees outliving their assets, Singapore’s Central Provident Fund, a national defined contribution pension scheme, has recently mandated annuitization of workers’ retirement assets. More significantly, the government has entered the insurance market as a public-sector provider for such annuities. This paper evaluates the money’s worth of life annuities and discusses the impact of the government mandate and its role as an annuity provider on the insurance market.
尽管年金在理论上是一种管理长寿风险的有吸引力的方式,但在现实世界中,在退休时购买年金的消费者相对较少。为了应对退休人员的寿命超过其资产的可能性,新加坡的中央公积金(Central Provident Fund)——一个全国性的固定缴款养老金计划——最近要求将工人的退休资产年金化。更重要的是,政府已经进入保险市场,成为此类年金的公共部门提供者。本文评估了人寿年金的资金价值,并讨论了政府授权及其作为年金提供者对保险市场的影响。
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引用次数: 1
The Optimal Design of Social Security Benefits 社会保障福利的优化设计
Pub Date : 2008-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1338197
Shin’ichi Nishiyama, Kent A. Smetters
The United States Social Security system is fairly unique in that it explicitly allows for a progressive formulation of retirement benefits by assigning a larger replacement rate to workers with small pre-retirement wages. In contrast, the public pension systems in other countries often replace a constant fraction of pre-retirement wages, although the length of the “averaging period" is typically shorter relative to the U.S. This paper examines the ex-ante optimal U.S. Social Security benefit structure using the model developed in Nishiyama and Smetters (2007). On one hand, progressivity in the benefit structure provides risk sharing against shocks that are difficult to insure privately. On the other hand, progressivity introduces various marginal tax rates that distort labor supply. Rather surprisingly, we find that the ex-ante best U.S. Social Security replacement rate structure is fairly “flat.” Intuitively, the relatively long averaging period used in the U.S. system formulation already provides some insurance against negative idiosyncratic shocks, but in a manner that is more efficient than explicit redistribution.
美国的社会保障制度是相当独特的,因为它明确允许通过分配较高的替代率给退休前工资较低的工人来逐步制定退休福利。相比之下,其他国家的公共养老金制度通常会取代退休前工资的恒定部分,尽管“平均期”的长度通常比美国短。本文使用Nishiyama和Smetters(2007)开发的模型研究了事前最优的美国社会保障福利结构。一方面,福利结构的累进性提供了风险分担,以应对私人难以保证的冲击。另一方面,累进税引入了各种扭曲劳动力供给的边际税率。令人惊讶的是,我们发现在此之前美国社会保障的最佳替代率结构是相当“平坦”的。直观地说,美国制度制定中使用的相对较长的平均周期已经为负面的特殊冲击提供了一些保险,但以一种比明确的再分配更有效的方式。
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引用次数: 15
Cost Structures of Investment Offerings in Singapore's Central Provident Fund 新加坡中央公积金投资产品的成本结构
Pub Date : 2007-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.991652
Benedict S. K. Koh, O. Mitchell, Joelle H. Fong
As policymakers seek to enhance the returns paid on participants' investments in their retirement systems, much attention has focused on the Singaporean Central Provident Fund (CPF) and how professionally-managed unit trusts permitted under the CPFIS scheme fit into the system. This paper begins by indicating the investment choices made available to participants; we also summarize the various transaction costs associated with unit trust investments. Next, we examine the determinants of these costs and investigate which factors have a bearing on the cost structure of unit trusts. Our empirical results show that foreign ownership, active style of management, and equity/balanced funds are associated with higher expenses. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy options to reduce cost associated with CPFIS included unit trusts.
随着政策制定者寻求提高参与者在其退休体系中投资的回报,许多注意力都集中在新加坡中央公积金(CPF)以及CPFIS计划允许的专业管理单位信托基金如何融入该体系上。本文首先指出了可供参与者使用的投资选择;我们还总结了与单位信托投资相关的各种交易成本。接下来,我们研究了这些成本的决定因素,并研究了哪些因素对单位信托的成本结构有影响。我们的实证结果表明,外资所有权、积极的管理风格和股权/平衡型基金与较高的费用相关。本文最后讨论了降低包括单位信托在内的CPFIS相关成本的政策选择。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Asset Allocation in Japan: An Empirical Evaluation 日本的战略性资产配置:一个实证评价
Pub Date : 2005-07-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.755031
Tokuo Iwaisako, O. Mitchell, J. Piggott
This research seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of lifetime asset allocation in Japan. We evaluate patterns in the level and composition of assets by household type, taking account of home ownership and household claims on social security as well as financial assets and pensions. The analysis relies on a micro-data taken from the RADAR survey fielded by Nikkei, for the year 2000. The RADAR data are the only publicly available dataset to record financial asset holdings in any detail, with which we calculate housing equity as well as other forms of wealth. We supplement this with external information on pension and social security entitlements. The resulting picture attests to the importance of housing and social security in the portfolios of households approaching retirement. As well, we compare asset allocation patterns between those who are worse vs. better off, better vs. worse educated, married couples vs others, and dualearner vs. single earner couples. Our econometric analysis of asset allocation choice reinforces priors regarding Japanese lifecycle asset allocation patterns: households do invest conservatively, other than their family home; they are risk-averse in their allocation of financial assets; and they appear to over-invest in housing and life insurance, two assets which enjoy preferential bequest tax treatment. We argue that institutional, historical, and policy influences explain much of observed Japanese preferences for safe financial assets, and we offer suggestions for mechanisms that could increase household diversification.
本研究旨在提供日本终身资产配置的全面图景。我们按家庭类型评估资产水平和构成的模式,同时考虑到住房所有权和家庭对社会保障、金融资产和养老金的要求。该分析依据的是日经指数(Nikkei)在2000年进行的RADAR调查中的一组微观数据。RADAR数据是唯一可以公开获得的详细记录金融资产持有量的数据集,我们用它来计算住房权益以及其他形式的财富。我们补充了有关养老金和社会保障权利的外部信息。由此产生的图景证明了住房和社会保障在接近退休的家庭投资组合中的重要性。此外,我们还比较了穷人和富人、受教育程度较高和较低的人、已婚夫妇和其他人、双职工夫妇和单身夫妇之间的资产配置模式。我们对资产配置选择的计量经济学分析强化了日本生命周期资产配置模式的先验:除了家庭投资外,家庭确实是保守的;他们在配置金融资产时规避风险;他们似乎过度投资于住房和人寿保险,这两项资产享有遗赠税优惠待遇。我们认为,制度、历史和政策的影响解释了日本人对安全金融资产的偏好,我们提出了可以增加家庭多样化的机制建议。
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引用次数: 16
期刊
Wharton School: Business Economics & Public Policy (Topic)
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