Pub Date : 2019-08-17DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.v5i2.4687
Megbar W. Birhan, U. Raju, S. Kenea
Accurate and precise measurements of rainfall from weather radar reflectivity data is essential to supplement the limited characterization of spatial and temporal measurements provided by insufficient network and density of rain gauges. While weather radar has high spatial and temporal resolution, it contaminated with various sources of errors due to the conversion of reflectivity to rain rate and the projectile rainfall motion. Error modeling improvement with the application of projectile rainfall motion correction is essential to improve the radar data. However, stile is not well documented for over the world as well as Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to generate an error model for weather radar rainfall estimation by incorporating gauge rainfall data over upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Projectile rainfall motion correction is considered on the data of reflectivity and rain rate to determine empirical error model parameter values. The model parameter values are found, multiplicative factor (a) was 55, the exponent factor (b) was 1.12, standard deviation of proportional error was 0.08 and standard deviation of random error was 0.07. The value of the total error varied from -0.45 to 1.16 mm and the domain of proportional error was greater than random error. After applying the projectile rainfall motion correction, the total error is reduced by 12%. In general, the assumption of projectile method is quite useful for improving the radar data over upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia as well as over the world. Hence, we wish to extend this method for other regions.
{"title":"Error Modeling Radar Rainfall Estimation Through Incorporating Rain Gauge Data Over Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia","authors":"Megbar W. Birhan, U. Raju, S. Kenea","doi":"10.12962/j24775401.v5i2.4687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/j24775401.v5i2.4687","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate and precise measurements of rainfall from weather radar reflectivity data is essential to supplement the limited characterization of spatial and temporal measurements provided by insufficient network and density of rain gauges. While weather radar has high spatial and temporal resolution, it contaminated with various sources of errors due to the conversion of reflectivity to rain rate and the projectile rainfall motion. Error modeling improvement with the application of projectile rainfall motion correction is essential to improve the radar data. However, stile is not well documented for over the world as well as Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to generate an error model for weather radar rainfall estimation by incorporating gauge rainfall data over upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Projectile rainfall motion correction is considered on the data of reflectivity and rain rate to determine empirical error model parameter values. The model parameter values are found, multiplicative factor (a) was 55, the exponent factor (b) was 1.12, standard deviation of proportional error was 0.08 and standard deviation of random error was 0.07. The value of the total error varied from -0.45 to 1.16 mm and the domain of proportional error was greater than random error. After applying the projectile rainfall motion correction, the total error is reduced by 12%. In general, the assumption of projectile method is quite useful for improving the radar data over upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia as well as over the world. Hence, we wish to extend this method for other regions.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123255469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-02-21DOI: 10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.4659
A. Jahanbani, Hajar Shooshtary
Let G be a graph with vertex set V(G) and edge set E(G). The Nano-Zagreb and multiplicative Nano-Zagreb indices of G are NZ(G) = prod_{uv in E(G)} (d^2(u) - d^2(v)) and N*Z(G) = prod_{uv in E(G)} (d^2(u) - d^2(v)), respectively, where d(v) is the degree of the vertex v. In this paper, we define two types of Zagreb indices based on degrees of vertices. Also the Nano-Zagreb index and multiplicative Nano-Zagreb index of the Cartesian product, symmetric difference, composition and disjunction of graphs are computed.
设G是一个顶点集V(G)，边集E(G)的图。G的Nano-Zagreb指标和相乘的Nano-Zagreb指标分别为NZ(G) = prod_{uv in E(G)} (d²(u) - d²(v))和N*Z(G) = prod_{uv in E(G)} (d²(u) - d²(v))，其中d(v)是顶点v的度数，本文根据顶点v的度数定义了两种类型的Zagreb指标。计算了图的笛卡尔积、对称差分、复合和析取的纳米-萨格勒布指数和乘法纳米-萨格勒布指数。
{"title":"Nano-Zagreb Index and Multiplicative Nano-Zagreb Index of Some Graph Operations","authors":"A. Jahanbani, Hajar Shooshtary","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.4659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.4659","url":null,"abstract":"Let G be a graph with vertex set V(G) and edge set E(G). The Nano-Zagreb and multiplicative Nano-Zagreb indices of G are NZ(G) = prod_{uv in E(G)} (d^2(u) - d^2(v)) and N*Z(G) = prod_{uv in E(G)} (d^2(u) - d^2(v)), respectively, where d(v) is the degree of the vertex v. In this paper, we define two types of Zagreb indices based on degrees of vertices. Also the Nano-Zagreb index and multiplicative Nano-Zagreb index of the Cartesian product, symmetric difference, composition and disjunction of graphs are computed.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"76 8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127395806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-02-21DOI: 10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.3806
Hibist Bazezew Fenta, G. A. Derese
In this paper, second order initial value problem of Bratu-type ordinary differential equations is solved numerically using sixth order Runge-Kutta seven stages method. The stability of the method is checked and verified. In order to justify the validity and effectiveness of the method, two model examples are solved and the numerical solutions are compared to the corresponding exact solutions. Furthermore, the results obtained using the current method are compared with the numerical results obtained by other researchers. The numerical results in terms of point-wise absolute errors presented in tables and plotted graphs show that the present method approximates the exact solutions very well.
{"title":"Numerical Solution of Second Order Initial Value Problems of Bratu-type Equations using Sixth Order Runge-Kutta Seven Stages Method","authors":"Hibist Bazezew Fenta, G. A. Derese","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.3806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.3806","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, second order initial value problem of Bratu-type ordinary differential equations is solved numerically using sixth order Runge-Kutta seven stages method. The stability of the method is checked and verified. In order to justify the validity and effectiveness of the method, two model examples are solved and the numerical solutions are compared to the corresponding exact solutions. Furthermore, the results obtained using the current method are compared with the numerical results obtained by other researchers. The numerical results in terms of point-wise absolute errors presented in tables and plotted graphs show that the present method approximates the exact solutions very well.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130590182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-02-21DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.v5i1.3172
Lutfi Mardianto, Aditya Putra Pratama, A. R. Soemarsono, A. Hakam, E. Putri
Put option is a contract to sell some underlying assets in the future with a certain price. On European put options, selling only can be exercised at maturity date. Behavior of European put options price can be modeled by using the Black-Scholes model which provide an analytical solution. Numerical approximation such as binomial tree, explicit and implicit finite difference methods also can be used to solve Black-Scholes model. Some numerical methods are applied and compared with the analytical solution to determine the best numerical method. The results show that numerical approximations using the binomial tree is more accurate than explicit and implicit finite difference method in pricing European put options. Moreover when the value of T is higher then the error obtained is also higher, while the error obtained is lower when the value of N is higher. The value of T and N cause the increase of the computation time. When the value of T is higher the computation time is lower, while computation time is higher if the value of N is higher. Overall, the lowest computation time is obtained by using an explicit finite difference method with an exceptional as the value of T is big and the value of N is small. The lowest computation time is obtained by using a binomial tree method.
{"title":"Comparison of Numerical Methods on Pricing of European Put Options","authors":"Lutfi Mardianto, Aditya Putra Pratama, A. R. Soemarsono, A. Hakam, E. Putri","doi":"10.12962/j24775401.v5i1.3172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/j24775401.v5i1.3172","url":null,"abstract":"Put option is a contract to sell some underlying assets in the future with a certain price. On European put options, selling only can be exercised at maturity date. Behavior of European put options price can be modeled by using the Black-Scholes model which provide an analytical solution. Numerical approximation such as binomial tree, explicit and implicit finite difference methods also can be used to solve Black-Scholes model. Some numerical methods are applied and compared with the analytical solution to determine the best numerical method. The results show that numerical approximations using the binomial tree is more accurate than explicit and implicit finite difference method in pricing European put options. Moreover when the value of T is higher then the error obtained is also higher, while the error obtained is lower when the value of N is higher. The value of T and N cause the increase of the computation time. When the value of T is higher the computation time is lower, while computation time is higher if the value of N is higher. Overall, the lowest computation time is obtained by using an explicit finite difference method with an exceptional as the value of T is big and the value of N is small. The lowest computation time is obtained by using a binomial tree method.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129439928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ethiopian coffee price has significant effect on the economy of the country and its price is highly fluctuated. In this study, we aim at modeling and forecasting the washed Sidama class A grade 3 (WSDA3) coffee price in Ethiopia to reduce the risks associated with this price fluctuation. We used daily closed price data of Ethiopian WSDA3 coffee recorded in the period 31 May 2011 to 30 March 2018 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse the prices fluctuation. The nature of log-returns of the price is asymmetric (negatively skewed) and exhibits high kurtosis. We used a Jump diffusion model to model and forecast the empirical data. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters. We used the root mean square error (RMSE) to test the goodness of fitting for the model to the data. This test indicates that the model performs well.
{"title":"Modeling Coffee Price using Jump Diffusion Model: The case of Ethiopia","authors":"Tesfahun Berhane, Molalign Adam, Guriju Awgichew, Eshetu Haile","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.3816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V5I1.3816","url":null,"abstract":"Ethiopian coffee price has significant effect on the economy of the country and its price is highly fluctuated. In this study, we aim at modeling and forecasting the washed Sidama class A grade 3 (WSDA3) coffee price in Ethiopia to reduce the risks associated with this price fluctuation. We used daily closed price data of Ethiopian WSDA3 coffee recorded in the period 31 May 2011 to 30 March 2018 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse the prices fluctuation. The nature of log-returns of the price is asymmetric (negatively skewed) and exhibits high kurtosis. We used a Jump diffusion model to model and forecast the empirical data. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters. We used the root mean square error (RMSE) to test the goodness of fitting for the model to the data. This test indicates that the model performs well.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128754699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-02-21DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.v5i1.3549
S. Khotijah, D. Sulistyaningrum
Currently, the use of digital video in the field of computer science is increasingly widespread, such as the process of tracking objects, the calculation of the number of vehicles, the classification of vehicle types, vehicle speed estimation and so forth. The process of taking digital video is often influenced by bad weather, such rain. Rain in digital video is considered noise because it is able to block objects being observed. Therefore, a rainfall noise reduction process is required in the video. In this study, the reduction of rain noise in digital video is using Daubechies wavelet transformation through several processes, namely: wavelet decomposition, fusion process, thresholding process and reconstruction process. The threshold value used in the thresholding process is VishuShrink, BayesShrink, and NormalShrink. The result of the implementation and noise reduction test show that Daubechies db2 level 3 filter gives the result with the biggest PSNR value. As for the type of threshold that provides optimal results is VishuShrink.
{"title":"Application of Daubechies Wavelet Transformation for Noise Rain Reduction on the Video","authors":"S. Khotijah, D. Sulistyaningrum","doi":"10.12962/j24775401.v5i1.3549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/j24775401.v5i1.3549","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, the use of digital video in the field of computer science is increasingly widespread, such as the process of tracking objects, the calculation of the number of vehicles, the classification of vehicle types, vehicle speed estimation and so forth. The process of taking digital video is often influenced by bad weather, such rain. Rain in digital video is considered noise because it is able to block objects being observed. Therefore, a rainfall noise reduction process is required in the video. In this study, the reduction of rain noise in digital video is using Daubechies wavelet transformation through several processes, namely: wavelet decomposition, fusion process, thresholding process and reconstruction process. The threshold value used in the thresholding process is VishuShrink, BayesShrink, and NormalShrink. The result of the implementation and noise reduction test show that Daubechies db2 level 3 filter gives the result with the biggest PSNR value. As for the type of threshold that provides optimal results is VishuShrink.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129897414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-17DOI: 10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3454
Aditya Putra Pratama, S. Subchan, D. Adzkiya
In this work, we discussed the verification of autonomous uncertain Max-Plus-Linear (uncertain MPL) systems with respect to safety property by using the reachability analysis approach. More precisely, given an uncertain MPL system, a nonempty set of initial conditions, a time horizon and an unsafe set, we want to determine whether the state can reach the unsafe set within the given time horizon. If the unsafe set is reachable, then the system is not safe. Otherwise, the system is safe. Our approach uses the piecewise affine representation of MPL systems to compute the reachable sets exactly.
{"title":"Safety Verification of Uncertain Max-Plus-Linear Systems","authors":"Aditya Putra Pratama, S. Subchan, D. Adzkiya","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3454","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we discussed the verification of autonomous uncertain Max-Plus-Linear (uncertain MPL) systems with respect to safety property by using the reachability analysis approach. More precisely, given an uncertain MPL system, a nonempty set of initial conditions, a time horizon and an unsafe set, we want to determine whether the state can reach the unsafe set within the given time horizon. If the unsafe set is reachable, then the system is not safe. Otherwise, the system is safe. Our approach uses the piecewise affine representation of MPL systems to compute the reachable sets exactly.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"302 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123055531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-17DOI: 10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3492
Zainullah Zuhri, M. Mardlijah, D. K. Arif
Steam drum boiler is an important component of boiler on electric steam power plant which is useful to obtain steam. The obtained steam makes turbine spin. In order to obtain maximal result for the steam power plant (PLTU) 1-2 PT PJB UP Gresik, the water level of steam drum boiler must be 0.7625 m and the temperature of steam drum boiler must be 786 K. Thus, it needs some controller to keep the position of water level and the temperature stable. In this problem, we compare two controllers FLC and FOPID. It can be concluded that FLC works better than FOPID controller. Nevertheless, FOPID controller has faster response time than FLC, i.e. no overshoot and more robust when disturbance is present on the system.
汽包锅炉是电蒸汽电厂锅炉的重要组成部分，具有获取蒸汽的作用。得到的蒸汽使涡轮机旋转。为了使PLTU 1-2 PT PJB UP Gresik蒸汽发电厂获得最大效果，汽包锅炉的水位必须为0.7625 m，汽包锅炉的温度必须为786 K。因此，需要一些控制器来保持水位位置和温度的稳定。在这个问题中，我们比较了两种控制器FLC和FOPID。结果表明，FLC控制器比FOPID控制器性能更好。然而，FOPID控制器具有比FLC更快的响应时间，即在系统存在干扰时没有超调并且更鲁棒。
{"title":"Comparison between Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) and Fractional Order Proportional Integral Derivative (FOPID) Controller on Water Level and Steam Temperature of Steam Drum Boiler","authors":"Zainullah Zuhri, M. Mardlijah, D. K. Arif","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3492","url":null,"abstract":"Steam drum boiler is an important component of boiler on electric steam power plant which is useful to obtain steam. The obtained steam makes turbine spin. In order to obtain maximal result for the steam power plant (PLTU) 1-2 PT PJB UP Gresik, the water level of steam drum boiler must be 0.7625 m and the temperature of steam drum boiler must be 786 K. Thus, it needs some controller to keep the position of water level and the temperature stable. In this problem, we compare two controllers FLC and FOPID. It can be concluded that FLC works better than FOPID controller. Nevertheless, FOPID controller has faster response time than FLC, i.e. no overshoot and more robust when disturbance is present on the system.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116347993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we introduce the concept of transitive and absorbent filters of implicative almost distributive lattices and studied their properties. A necessary and sufficient condition is derived for every filter to become a transitive filter. Some sufficient conditions are also derived for a filter to become a transitive filter. A set of equivalent conditions is obtained for a filter to become an absorbent filter.
{"title":"Transitive and Absorbent Filters of Implicative Almost Distributive Lattices","authors":"Berhanu Assaye Alaba, Mihret Alamneh, Tilahun Mekonnen Munie","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3597","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we introduce the concept of transitive and absorbent filters of implicative almost distributive lattices and studied their properties. A necessary and sufficient condition is derived for every filter to become a transitive filter. Some sufficient conditions are also derived for a filter to become a transitive filter. A set of equivalent conditions is obtained for a filter to become an absorbent filter.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124773171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-17DOI: 10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3824
Tesfahun Berhane, Nurilign Shibabaw, Gurju Awgichew, T. Kebede
Ethiopian economy is extremely dependent on agricultural sector, which contributes 45% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 85% foreign earnings and provides livelihood to 80% of the population. Ethiopian agriculture is highly dependent on natural rainfall, with irrigation agriculture accounting for less than 1% of the country’s total cultivated land. Therefore, modeling and forecasting the rainfall dynamics of the country has a great importance. This paper aims at examining the rainfall dynamics and fit appropriate model for forecasting Ethiopian rainfall. In this research, we apply Box-Jenkins approach, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model in order to forecast monthly rainfall of Ethiopia for the period of twelve months ahead. Monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2015 were used from world bank group (climate change portal). Appropriate SARIMA model has been identified based on an Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for forecasting the amount of monthly average rainfall. Farmers, in general agricultural sectors, policy makers, tourists, and investors engaged in the construction industry are some of the sectors benefited from this result.
{"title":"Modeling and Forecasting Rainfall in Ethiopia","authors":"Tesfahun Berhane, Nurilign Shibabaw, Gurju Awgichew, T. Kebede","doi":"10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12962/J24775401.V4I2.3824","url":null,"abstract":"Ethiopian economy is extremely dependent on agricultural sector, which contributes 45% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 85% foreign earnings and provides livelihood to 80% of the population. Ethiopian agriculture is highly dependent on natural rainfall, with irrigation agriculture accounting for less than 1% of the country’s total cultivated land. Therefore, modeling and forecasting the rainfall dynamics of the country has a great importance. This paper aims at examining the rainfall dynamics and fit appropriate model for forecasting Ethiopian rainfall. In this research, we apply Box-Jenkins approach, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model in order to forecast monthly rainfall of Ethiopia for the period of twelve months ahead. Monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2015 were used from world bank group (climate change portal). Appropriate SARIMA model has been identified based on an Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for forecasting the amount of monthly average rainfall. Farmers, in general agricultural sectors, policy makers, tourists, and investors engaged in the construction industry are some of the sectors benefited from this result.","PeriodicalId":357596,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133092634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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