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Learning-Based Optimal Admission Control in a Single-Server Queuing System 单服务器队列系统中基于学习的最优接纳控制
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.0042
Asaf Cohen, Vijay Subramanian, Yili Zhang
We consider a long-term average profit–maximizing admission control problem in an M/M/1 queuing system with unknown service and arrival rates. With a fixed reward collected upon service completion and a cost per unit of time enforced on customers waiting in the queue, a dispatcher decides upon arrivals whether to admit the arriving customer or not based on the full history of observations of the queue length of the system. Naor [Naor P (1969) The regulation of queue size by levying tolls. Econometrica 37(1):15–24] shows that, if all the parameters of the model are known, then it is optimal to use a static threshold policy: admit if the queue length is less than a predetermined threshold and otherwise not. We propose a learning-based dispatching algorithm and characterize its regret with respect to optimal dispatch policies for the full-information model of Naor [Naor P (1969) The regulation of queue size by levying tolls. Econometrica 37(1):15–24]. We show that the algorithm achieves an O(1) regret when all optimal thresholds with full information are nonzero and achieves an [Formula: see text] regret for any specified [Formula: see text] in the case that an optimal threshold with full information is 0 (i.e., an optimal policy is to reject all arrivals), where N is the number of arrivals.Funding: A. Cohen is partially supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant DMS-2006305]. V. Subramanian is supported in part by the NSF [Grants CCF-2008130, ECCS-2038416, CNS-1955777, and CMMI-2240981].
我们考虑的是一个具有未知服务率和到达率的 M/M/1 排队系统中的长期平均利润最大化接纳控制问题。调度员在服务完成后收取固定奖励,并对排队等候的顾客强制执行单位时间成本,调度员根据对系统排队长度的完整历史观察,在到达时决定是否接纳到达的顾客。Naor [Naor P (1969) The regulation of queue size by levying tolls.Econometrica 37(1):15-24] 表明,如果模型的所有参数都是已知的,那么使用静态阈值策略是最优的:如果队列长度小于预定阈值,则接纳,否则不接纳。我们提出了一种基于学习的调度算法,并描述了其与 Naor [Naor P (1969) The regulation of queue size by levying tolls.经济计量学》37(1):15-24]。我们证明,当所有全信息最优阈值都不为零时,该算法的遗憾值为 O(1),而在全信息最优阈值为 0(即最优策略是拒绝所有到达者)的情况下,对于任何指定的[公式:见正文]遗憾值,其中 N 是到达者的数量,该算法的遗憾值为[公式:见正文]:A. Cohen 由美国国家科学基金会 [Grant DMS-2006305] 提供部分资助。V. Subramanian 部分获得了美国国家科学基金会 [CCF-2008130, ECCS-2038416, CNS-1955777 和 CMMI-2240981] 的资助。
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引用次数: 0
Solution Representations for Poisson’s Equation, Martingale Structure, and the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem 泊松方程的解表示、马丁格尔结构和马尔可夫链中心极限定理
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.0001
Peter W. Glynn, Alex Infanger
The solution of Poisson’s equation plays a key role in constructing the martingale through which sums of Markov correlated random variables can be analyzed. In this paper, we study three different representations for the solution for countable state space irreducible Markov chains, two based on entry time expectations, and the other based on a potential kernel. Our consideration of null recurrent chains allows us to extend our theory to positive recurrent nonexplosive Markov jump processes. We also develop the martingale structure induced by these solutions to Poisson’s equation, under minimal conditions, and establish verifiable Lyapunov conditions to support our theory. Finally, we provide a central limit theorem for Markov dependent sums, under conditions weaker than have previously appeared in the literature.
泊松方程的解在构建马氏模型中起着关键作用,通过马氏模型可以分析马尔可夫相关随机变量的总和。在本文中,我们研究了可数状态空间不可还原马尔可夫链解的三种不同表示,其中两种基于进入时间期望,另一种基于势核。我们对空循环链的考虑使我们能够将我们的理论扩展到正循环非爆炸性马尔可夫跳跃过程。我们还在最小条件下发展了这些泊松方程解所诱导的马丁格结构,并建立了可验证的 Lyapunov 条件来支持我们的理论。最后,我们提供了马尔可夫依赖和的中心极限定理,其条件比以前文献中出现的条件更弱。
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引用次数: 0
A Particle System with Mean-Field Interaction: Large-Scale Limit of Stationary Distributions 具有平均场相互作用的粒子系统:平稳分布的大尺度极限
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2023.0108
Alexander L. Stolyar
We consider a system consisting of n particles, moving forward in jumps on the real line. System state is the empirical distribution of particle locations. Each particle “jumps forward” at some time points, with the instantaneous rate of jumps given by a decreasing function of the particle’s location quantile within the current state (empirical distribution). Previous work on this model established, under certain conditions, the convergence, as [Formula: see text], of the system random dynamics to that of a deterministic mean-field model (MFM), which is a solution to an integro-differential equation. Another line of previous work established the existence of MFMs that are traveling waves, as well as the attraction of MFM trajectories to traveling waves. The main results of this paper are: (a) We prove that, as [Formula: see text], the stationary distributions of (recentered) states concentrate on a (recentered) traveling wave; (b) we obtain a uniform across n moment bound on the stationary distributions of (recentered) states; and (c) we prove a convergence-to-MFM result, which is substantially more general than that in previous work. Results (b) and (c) serve as “ingredients” of the proof of (a), but also are of independent interest.
我们考虑一个由n个粒子组成的系统,它们在实线上跳跃前进。系统状态是粒子位置的经验分布。每个粒子在某些时间点“向前跳跃”,跳跃的瞬时速率由粒子在当前状态(经验分布)中的位置分位数的递减函数给出。先前对该模型的研究建立了在一定条件下,系统随机动力学收敛于确定性平均场模型(MFM)的收敛性[公式:见文],该模型是一个积分-微分方程的解。先前的另一项工作确定了行波的MFM的存在,以及MFM轨迹对行波的吸引力。本文的主要结果有:(a)我们证明了[公式:见文],(重向)态的平稳分布集中在(重向)行波上;(b)我们在(重中心)态的平稳分布上得到了一个跨n个矩界的均匀分布;(c)证明了一个收敛到mfm的结果,该结果比以前的工作具有更大的普遍性。结果(b)和(c)作为(a)证明的“成分”,但也具有独立的利益。
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引用次数: 0
Interpretable Prediction Rules for Congestion Risk in Intensive Care Units 重症监护病房拥挤风险的可解释预测规则
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.0018
Fernanda Bravo, C. Rudin, Yaron Shaposhnik, Yuting Yuan
We study the problem of predicting congestion risk in intensive care units (ICUs). Congestion is associated with poor service experience, high costs, and poor health outcomes. By predicting future congestion, decision makers can initiate preventive measures, such as rescheduling activities or increasing short-term capacity, to mitigate the effects of congestion. To this end, we consider well-established queueing models of ICUs and define “high-risk states” as system states that are likely to lead to congestion in the near future. We strive to formulate rules for determining whether a given system state is high risk. We design the rules to be interpretable (informally, easy to understand) for their practical appeal to stakeholders. We show that for simple Markovian queueing systems, such as the [Formula: see text] queue with multiple patient classes, our rules take the form of linear and quadratic functions on the state space. For more general queueing systems, we employ methods from queueing theory, simulation, and machine learning (ML) to devise interpretable prediction rules, and we demonstrate their effectiveness through an extensive computational study, which includes a large-scale ICU model validated using data. Our study shows that congestion risk can be effectively and transparently predicted using linear ML models and interpretable features engineered from the queueing model representation of the system. History: This paper has been accepted for the Service Science/Stochastic Systems Joint Special Issue. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/stsy.2022.0018 .
我们研究了重症监护室(ICU)拥挤风险的预测问题。拥堵与糟糕的服务体验、高昂的成本和糟糕的健康结果有关。通过预测未来的拥堵,决策者可以采取预防措施,如重新安排活动或增加短期容量,以减轻拥堵的影响。为此,我们考虑了已建立的ICU排队模型,并将“高风险状态”定义为在不久的将来可能导致拥堵的系统状态。我们努力制定规则来确定给定的系统状态是否具有高风险。我们将规则设计为可解释的(非正式的,易于理解的),以使其对利益相关者具有实际吸引力。我们证明了对于简单的马尔可夫排队系统,例如具有多个病人类的[公式:见正文]队列,我们的规则采用状态空间上的线性和二次函数的形式。对于更一般的排队系统,我们使用排队理论、模拟和机器学习(ML)的方法来设计可解释的预测规则,并通过广泛的计算研究证明了它们的有效性,其中包括使用数据验证的大规模ICU模型。我们的研究表明,使用线性ML模型和根据系统的排队模型表示设计的可解释特征,可以有效、透明地预测拥塞风险。历史:这篇论文已被服务科学/随机系统联合特刊接受。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/stsy.2022.0018。
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引用次数: 0
Optimally Scheduling Public Safety Power Shutoffs 公共安全停电的优化调度
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.004
Antoine Lesage-Landry, Félix Pellerin, Duncan S. Callaway, Joshua A. Taylor
In an effort to reduce power system-caused wildfires, utilities carry out public safety power shutoffs (PSPSs), in which portions of the grid are deenergized to mitigate the risk of ignition. The decision to call a PSPS must balance reducing ignition risks and the negative impact of service interruptions. In this work, we consider three PSPS scheduling scenarios, which we model as dynamic programs. In the first two scenarios, we assume that N PSPSs are budgeted as part of the investment strategy. In the first scenario, a penalty is incurred for each PSPS declared past the Nth event. In the second, we assume that some costs can be recovered if the number of PSPSs is below N while still being subject to a penalty if above N. In the third, the system operator wants to minimize the number of PSPSs such that the total expected cost is below a threshold. We provide optimal or asymptotically optimal policies for each case, the first two of which have closed-form expressions. Lastly, we establish the applicability of the first PSPS model’s policy to critical peak pricing and obtain an optimal scheduling policy to reduce the peak demand based on weather observations. Funding: This work was funded in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Institute for Data Valorization, the National Science Foundation [Award 1351900], the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy [Award DE-AR0001061], and the University of California Office of the President Laboratory Fees Program [Grant LFR-20-652467].
为了减少电力系统引起的野火,公用事业公司实施了公共安全断电(psss),其中部分电网断电以降低着火的风险。调用PSPS的决定必须平衡降低着火风险和服务中断的负面影响。在这项工作中,我们考虑了三种PSPS调度方案,我们将其建模为动态规划。在前两个场景中,我们假设将N个psp作为投资策略的一部分进行预算。在第一个场景中,对于第n个事件之后声明的每个PSPS都会产生处罚。在第二种情况中,我们假设如果psp的数量低于N,则可以收回一些成本,而如果高于N,则仍然会受到惩罚。在第三种情况中,系统操作员希望最小化psp的数量,使总预期成本低于阈值。我们为每种情况提供了最优或渐近最优策略,其中前两种策略具有封闭形式的表达式。最后,建立了第一种PSPS模型策略对关键峰定价的适用性,并基于天气观测得到了降低高峰需求的最优调度策略。本研究由加拿大自然科学与工程研究委员会、数据增值研究所、国家科学基金会[奖励1351900]、美国能源部高级研究计划局[奖励DE-AR0001061]和加州大学校长实验室费用计划办公室[资助LFR-20-652467]资助。
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引用次数: 0
Optimally Scheduling Public Safety Power Shutoffs 公共安全停电的优化调度
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.0004
Antoine Lesage-Landry, Félix Pellerin, Duncan S. Callaway, Joshua A. Taylor
In an effort to reduce power system-caused wildfires, utilities carry out public safety power shutoffs (PSPSs), in which portions of the grid are deenergized to mitigate the risk of ignition. The decision to call a PSPS must balance reducing ignition risks and the negative impact of service interruptions. In this work, we consider three PSPS scheduling scenarios, which we model as dynamic programs. In the first two scenarios, we assume that N PSPSs are budgeted as part of the investment strategy. In the first scenario, a penalty is incurred for each PSPS declared past the Nth event. In the second, we assume that some costs can be recovered if the number of PSPSs is below N while still being subject to a penalty if above N. In the third, the system operator wants to minimize the number of PSPSs such that the total expected cost is below a threshold. We provide optimal or asymptotically optimal policies for each case, the first two of which have closed-form expressions. Lastly, we establish the applicability of the first PSPS model’s policy to critical peak pricing and obtain an optimal scheduling policy to reduce the peak demand based on weather observations. Funding: This work was funded in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Institute for Data Valorization, the National Science Foundation [Award 1351900], the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy [Award DE-AR0001061], and the University of California Office of the President Laboratory Fees Program [Grant LFR-20-652467].
为了减少电力系统引起的野火,公用事业公司实施了公共安全断电(psss),其中部分电网断电以降低着火的风险。调用PSPS的决定必须平衡降低着火风险和服务中断的负面影响。在这项工作中,我们考虑了三种PSPS调度方案,我们将其建模为动态规划。在前两个场景中,我们假设将N个psp作为投资策略的一部分进行预算。在第一个场景中,对于第n个事件之后声明的每个PSPS都会产生处罚。在第二种情况中,我们假设如果psp的数量低于N,则可以收回一些成本,而如果高于N,则仍然会受到惩罚。在第三种情况中,系统操作员希望最小化psp的数量,使总预期成本低于阈值。我们为每种情况提供了最优或渐近最优策略,其中前两种策略具有封闭形式的表达式。最后,建立了第一种PSPS模型策略对关键峰定价的适用性,并基于天气观测得到了降低高峰需求的最优调度策略。本研究由加拿大自然科学与工程研究委员会、数据增值研究所、国家科学基金会[奖励1351900]、美国能源部高级研究计划局[奖励DE-AR0001061]和加州大学校长实验室费用计划办公室[资助LFR-20-652467]资助。
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引用次数: 0
Directed Acyclic Graph-Type Distributed Ledgers via Young-Age Preferential Attachment 基于青年偏好依恋的有向无环图型分布Ledger
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.0005
Christian Mönch, Amr Rizk
Distributed ledger technologies provide a mechanism to achieve ordering among transactions that are scattered on multiple participants with no prerequisite trust relations. This mechanism is essentially based on the idea of new transactions referencing older ones in a chain structure. Recently, directed acyclic graph (DAG)-type distributed ledgers that are based on DAGs were proposed to increase the system scalability through sacrificing the total order of transactions. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to study the process that governs the addition of new transactions to the DAG-type distributed ledger. We propose a simple model for DAG-type distributed ledgers that are obtained from a recursive young-age preferential attachment scheme (i.e., new connections are made preferably to transactions that have not been in the system for very long). We determine the asymptotic degree structure of the resulting graph and show that a forward component of linear size arises if the edge density is chosen sufficiently large in relation to the “young-age preference” that tunes how quickly old transactions become unattractive. Funding: The research of C. Mönch is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Grant 443916008].
分布式账本技术提供了一种机制,可以在分散在多个参与者身上的交易中实现排序,而无需先决的信任关系。这种机制基本上是基于新事务在链结构中引用旧事务的思想。最近,人们提出了基于DAG的有向无环图(DAG)型分布式账本,以牺牲事务的总顺序来提高系统的可扩展性。在本文中,我们开发了一个数学模型来研究在DAG型分布式账本中添加新交易的过程。我们为DAG型分布式账本提出了一个简单的模型,该模型是从递归的年轻优先依恋方案中获得的(即,最好与系统中没有很长时间的交易建立新的连接)。我们确定了所得图的渐进度结构,并表明,如果边缘密度相对于“年轻人偏好”选择得足够大,则会产生线性大小的前向分量,该偏好会调整旧交易变得不吸引人的速度。资助:C.Mönch的研究得到了德意志基金会的支持[拨款443916008]。
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引用次数: 0
Directed Acyclic Graph-Type Distributed Ledgers via Young-Age Preferential Attachment 基于年龄优先依附的有向无环图型分布式账本
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.005
Christian Mönch, Amr Rizk
Distributed ledger technologies provide a mechanism to achieve ordering among transactions that are scattered on multiple participants with no prerequisite trust relations. This mechanism is essentially based on the idea of new transactions referencing older ones in a chain structure. Recently, directed acyclic graph (DAG)-type distributed ledgers that are based on DAGs were proposed to increase the system scalability through sacrificing the total order of transactions. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to study the process that governs the addition of new transactions to the DAG-type distributed ledger. We propose a simple model for DAG-type distributed ledgers that are obtained from a recursive young-age preferential attachment scheme (i.e., new connections are made preferably to transactions that have not been in the system for very long). We determine the asymptotic degree structure of the resulting graph and show that a forward component of linear size arises if the edge density is chosen sufficiently large in relation to the “young-age preference” that tunes how quickly old transactions become unattractive. Funding: The research of C. Mönch is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Grant 443916008].
分布式账本技术提供了一种机制,可以在分散在多个参与者身上的交易之间实现排序,而不需要先决的信任关系。这种机制本质上是基于链结构中新事务引用旧事务的想法。最近,有向无环图(DAG)型分布式账本被提出,通过牺牲交易的总顺序来提高系统的可扩展性。在本文中,我们开发了一个数学模型来研究管理向dag类型的分布式账本添加新交易的过程。我们提出了一个简单的dag型分布式账本模型,该模型是从递归的年轻优先连接方案中获得的(即,新连接更倾向于未在系统中存在很长时间的事务)。我们确定了结果图的渐近度结构,并表明,如果选择的边缘密度足够大,那么线性大小的前向分量就会出现,这与“年轻年龄偏好”有关,该偏好可以调整旧交易变得没有吸引力的速度。资助:C. Mönch的研究由Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft支持[Grant 443916008]。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Server Assignment in Queues with Flexible Servers and Abandonments 具有灵活服务器和放弃的队列中的最优服务器分配
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2023.0109
S. Andradóttir, H. Ayhan
We study a Markovian system of two stations in tandem and two flexible servers who are capable of working at both stations. The novelty of our work is that jobs waiting in line to be processed by the second station may leave the system (without being processed at the second station) after an exponential amount of time. We show that the dynamic server assignment policy that maximizes the long-run average throughput assigns one server to each station unless station 2 is starved (i.e., has no work) or the number of jobs in the buffer reaches a certain threshold (both servers work together at station 1 when station 2 is starved and at station 2 when the threshold is reached). We specify the criterion for the assignment of the servers to the stations and characterize the threshold. Finally, we investigate how the threshold depends on the service and abandonment rates.
我们研究了一个由两个工作站串联和两个能够在两个工作站工作的灵活服务器组成的马尔可夫系统。我们工作的新颖之处在于,排队等待第二站处理的作业可能会在指数时间后离开系统(而不在第二站进行处理)。我们表明,最大化长期平均吞吐量的动态服务器分配策略为每个站点分配一个服务器,除非站点2处于饥饿状态(即没有工作)或缓冲器中的作业数量达到某个阈值(当站点2处于饥荒状态时,两个服务器在站点1协同工作,当达到阈值时,在站点2协同工作)。我们指定了将服务器分配给工作站的标准,并表征了阈值。最后,我们研究了阈值如何取决于服务和放弃率。
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引用次数: 1
Asymptotically Optimal Inventory Control for Assemble-to-Order Systems 装配订货系统的渐近最优库存控制
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2022.0099
Martin I. Reiman, Haohua Wan, Qiong Wang
We consider assemble-to-order (ATO) inventory systems with a general bill of materials and general deterministic lead times. Unsatisfied demands are always backlogged. We apply a four-step asymptotic framework to develop inventory policies for minimizing the long-run average expected total inventory cost. Our approach features a multistage stochastic program (SP) to establish a lower bound on the inventory cost and determine parameter values for inventory control. Our replenishment policy deviates from the conventional constant base stock policies to accommodate nonidentical lead times. Our component allocation policy differentiates demands based on backlog costs, bill of materials, and component availabilities. We prove that our policy is asymptotically optimal on the diffusion scale, that is, as the longest lead time grows, the percentage difference between the average cost under our policy and its lower bound converges to zero. In developing these results, we formulate a broad stochastic tracking model and prove general convergence results from which the asymptotic optimality of our policy follows as specialized corollaries. Funding: This study is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant CMMI-1363314].
我们考虑具有一般物料清单和一般确定性交货时间的装配到订单(ATO)库存系统。未满足的需求总是积压。我们应用一个四步渐进框架来制定库存政策,以最小化长期平均预期总库存成本。我们的方法采用多阶段随机规划(SP)来建立库存成本的下界并确定库存控制的参数值。我们的补充政策偏离了传统的恒定基础库存政策,以适应不相同的交货时间。我们的组件分配策略根据积压成本、物料清单和组件可用性来区分需求。我们证明了我们的策略在扩散尺度上是渐近最优的,即随着最长提前期的增长,我们的策略下的平均成本与其下界之间的百分比差收敛于零。在发展这些结果的过程中,我们建立了一个广泛的随机跟踪模型,并证明了我们的策略的渐近最优性作为专门推论的一般收敛结果。资助:本研究基于美国国家科学基金会[Grant CMMI-1363314]支持的工作。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Stochastic Systems
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