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Participation and Pre-Retirement Withdrawals in Oregon’s Auto-IRA 俄勒冈州自动个人退休账户的参与和退休前提款
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2020.1.069
Laura D. Quinby, A. Munnell, Wenliang Hou, Anek Belbase, Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
About half of private sector workers in the United States do not participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan at their current job. To fill the gap, a number of state governments around the country have recently launched initiatives to automatically enroll their uncovered workers in individual retirement accounts (IRAs). This article reports on the experience of Oregon, which was the first state to launch an auto-IRA program (OregonSaves). Because the program only began in July of 2017 and is in its infancy, analysts are still debating basic statistics about its operation, such as the participation rate. To advance the conversation, this study uses administrative data from OregonSaves to develop a conceptual framework for measuring participation. It then shifts the focus to pre-retirement withdrawals, tracking a cohort of employees who had funded accounts in September 2018 over a 12-month period. The study finds that participation ranges from 48% to 67% (the exact rate is uncertain because of data limitations) and that 20% of employees made at least one pre-retirement withdrawal during the subsequent year, removing $1,000 on average. TOPICS: Wealth management, retirement Key Findings • Most eligible employees participate in Oregon’s auto-IRA. • Some employees will use their account for precautionary savings as well as retirement. • It is still too early to draw conclusions about the program’s overall effect on household finances.
在美国,大约一半的私营部门工人在目前的工作中没有参加雇主资助的退休计划。为了填补这一缺口,全国多个州政府最近推出了自动将未参保工人纳入个人退休账户(IRA)的举措。本文报道了俄勒冈州的经验,俄勒冈州是第一个推出自动IRA计划(OregonSaves)的州。由于该项目于2017年7月才开始,目前还处于起步阶段,分析人士仍在讨论有关其运营的基本统计数据,如参与率。为了推进对话,本研究使用OregonSaves的管理数据来开发一个衡量参与度的概念框架。然后,它将重点转移到退休前提款上,在12个月的时间里跟踪2018年9月为账户提供资金的一批员工。研究发现,参与率从48%到67%不等(由于数据限制,确切比率不确定),20%的员工在下一年至少进行了一次退休前提款,平均减少了1000美元。主题:财富管理、退休关键发现•大多数符合条件的员工都参加了俄勒冈州的汽车个人退休账户。•一些员工会将其账户用于预防性储蓄和退休。•关于该计划对家庭财务的总体影响,现在下结论还为时过早。
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引用次数: 6
Top-Up Contributions to Social Security 追加社会保障缴款
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.1.057
J. Turner
Different approaches have been studied for dealing with the life cycle problem of paying for retirement consumption. Two key aspects of this problem are saving enough for retirement during the pre-retirement period and managing the spend down of assets during the retirement period. The proposal in this article addresses both issues. This article presents a proposal for voluntary top-up contributions to Social Security. With these contributions, workers could purchase earnings credits. These purchased earnings credits would enter the calculation of Social Security benefits in exactly the same way as actual earnings credits. When workers file their federal income taxes, they could purchase earnings credits for that tax year up to the Social Security taxable maximum earnings. This approach to voluntarily increasing Social Security benefits is less susceptible to problems of adverse selection than some other approaches that have been proposed. TOPICS: Wealth management, retirement, social security Key Findings • Voluntary add-on contributions to Social Security would delay the date of insolvency by bringing new revenue into the system. • Voluntary add-on contributions to Social Security would be possible for workers earning less than the Social Security taxable maximum, who could purchase additional earnings credits. • The calculation of the person’s increase in benefits would be done using the progressive structure of the Social Security benefit formula.
人们研究了不同的方法来处理支付退休消费的生命周期问题。这个问题的两个关键方面是在退休前为退休储蓄足够的资金,以及在退休期间管理资产的支出。本文中的建议解决了这两个问题。这篇文章提出了一个自愿补充社会保障缴款的建议。有了这些捐款,工人们可以购买收入抵免。这些购买的收入抵免将以与实际收入抵免完全相同的方式进入社会保障福利的计算。当工人提交联邦所得税时,他们可以购买该纳税年度的收入抵免,直至社会保障应纳税的最高收入。这种自愿增加社会保障福利的方法比其他一些已经提出的方法更不容易受到逆向选择问题的影响。主题:财富管理、退休、社会保障主要发现•对社会保障的自愿附加缴款将通过为系统带来新的收入来推迟破产日期。•对于收入低于社会保障应税最高限额的工人,可以自愿向社会保障缴纳附加税,他们可以购买额外的收入抵免。•个人福利增加的计算将使用社会保障福利公式的累进结构来完成。
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引用次数: 1
Should a Retiree File for Social Security at 62 or 70? 退休人员应该在62岁还是70岁申请社会保障?
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.7.2.051
Michael A. Harris
Retirees can file for Social Security benefits as soon as they are 62 years old, but payments will become larger if they delay up to a maximum of 70 years of age. Many people believe the best strategy is to wait until later to file in order to maximize benefit payments. In this article, we reexamine that advice and add two considerations. First, we discuss how the claiming decision is made and recognize that in many cases the individual’s goal is to support new lifestyle options, not to maximize Social Security withdrawals. Next, we consider alternative sources of income and how using those resources affects the claiming decision. The article concludes with example scenarios that demonstrate how a financial advisor might advise clients on the best strategy for their particular situation. TOPICS: Wealth management, retirement, social security Key Findings • Popular advice recommends delaying Social Security filing to maximize benefits, but one-third of retirees file at the earliest possible age. • Retirees generally switch from asset accumulation to consumption. Their life goals may not fit with a benefit maximization strategy. • Some individuals are forced into a claiming decision based on personal circumstances. For these individuals, delaying claiming may not be practical. • Those with alternative resources have the most decision flexibility. They will make portfolio-based decisions and will not focus solely on Social Security income. The best choice will need to be tailored to individual circumstances.
退休人员一到62岁就可以申请社会保障福利,但如果他们延迟到70岁,福利金将增加。许多人认为,最好的策略是等到以后再申请,以最大限度地提高福利支付。在本文中,我们将重新审视该建议,并添加两个注意事项。首先,我们讨论了如何做出索赔决定,并认识到在许多情况下,个人的目标是支持新的生活方式选择,而不是最大限度地提取社会保障金。接下来,我们将考虑其他收入来源,以及使用这些资源如何影响索赔决定。文章以示例场景结束,这些场景展示了财务顾问如何为客户提供针对其特定情况的最佳策略建议。主题:财富管理、退休、社会保障关键发现•流行的建议建议推迟社会保障申请,以最大限度地提高福利,但三分之一的退休人员在尽可能早的年龄申请。•退休人员通常从资产积累转向消费。他们的人生目标可能不符合利益最大化战略。•一些人被迫根据个人情况作出索赔决定。对于这些人来说,推迟索赔可能不切实际。•那些拥有替代资源的人拥有最大的决策灵活性。他们将根据投资组合做出决策,不会只关注社会保障收入。最佳选择需要根据具体情况进行调整。
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引用次数: 2
Editor’s Letter 编者的信
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.7.2.001
Brett Hammond
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引用次数: 0
The Unrealistic Optimism That Threatens Retirement Security 威胁退休保障的不切实际的乐观主义
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.1.056
A. Rappaport
The US is facing a retirement crisis. Almost half of all American families have no retirement savings. A disturbingly large number of investors think they are on a path toward a comfortable retirement, but they are unlikely to reach their destination due to their unrealistically optimistic growth forecasts for their retirement savings. This article examines the sources of this unwarranted optimism. First, some investors forecast savings growth rates that assume they will reinvest dividends, but they do not. Second, investors earn lower rates of returns than the mutual funds they invest in. Third, they fail to properly account for the costs associated with investing—inflation, expense ratios, and taxes. Investment professionals are very familiar with how these factors work against accumulating savings. Much less attention, however, has been directed at how overly optimistic forecasts of these factors threaten retirement security. This article examines these issues. In addition, the article shows how properly incorporating the factors into retirement plans enables retirement savers and financial advisors to make the timely changes needed to prevent a retirement nightmare. TOPICS: Wealth management, retirement, pension funds, portfolio theory Key Findings • A majority of polled workers express optimism about their ability to finance a comfortable retirement, but those who forecast an overly optimistic savings growth rates are unlikely to reach their retirement goal. • The principal sources of overly optimistic savings growth rate forecasts include bullish market return forecasts, failure to reinvest dividends, underperforming the equity funds that the investors invest in, and a failure to properly account for inflation, expense ratios, and taxes. • Prospects for achieving retirement savings targets improve with a combination of better forecasts of the factors affecting the savings growth rate, avoiding poor market timing, and lowering expense ratios with low-cost index funds.
美国正面临退休危机。几乎一半的美国家庭没有退休储蓄。令人不安的是,大量投资者认为他们正朝着舒适的退休生活迈进,但由于他们对退休储蓄的增长预测不切实际,他们不太可能到达目的地。这篇文章探讨了这种毫无根据的乐观主义的来源。首先,一些投资者预测储蓄增长率,认为他们会将股息再投资,但他们没有。其次,投资者的回报率低于他们投资的共同基金。第三,他们没有正确考虑与投资相关的成本——通货膨胀、支出比率和税收。投资专业人士非常熟悉这些因素是如何影响储蓄积累的。然而,人们很少关注对这些因素过于乐观的预测如何威胁退休保障。本文探讨了这些问题。此外,这篇文章还展示了如何将这些因素适当地纳入退休计划,使退休储蓄者和财务顾问能够及时做出必要的改变,以防止退休噩梦。主题:财富管理、退休、养老基金、投资组合理论关键发现•大多数受访员工对自己为舒适退休提供资金的能力表示乐观,但那些预测储蓄增长率过于乐观的人不太可能实现退休目标。•过度乐观的储蓄增长率预测的主要来源包括乐观的市场回报预测、未能对股息进行再投资、投资者投资的股票基金表现不佳,以及未能正确考虑通货膨胀、费用比率和税收。•通过对影响储蓄增长率的因素进行更好的预测,避免市场时机不佳,以及用低成本指数基金降低支出比率,实现退休储蓄目标的前景有所改善。
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引用次数: 0
Alice in Wonderland… or Is It Plunderland? The Generational Implications of Social Security Financing Policy and New Proposals to Expand Benefits 《爱丽丝梦游仙境》还是《劫掠之地》?社会保障融资政策的代际影响及扩大福利的新建议
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-09-10 DOI: 10.3905/JOR.2019.1.055
S. Schieber
The US Social Security pension system is not adequately financed to fully meet benefit obligations specified in current law beyond the early 2030s. This potential financing shortfall has been recognized for at least the past quarter century, but policymakers have done nothing to address it. The system is largely financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, so restoring financing balance requires that the taxes supporting the system be increased, the benefits provided under current law be reduced, or some combination of the two. The delay in addressing the system’s financing imbalances has resulted in shifting of costs associated with the pensions from older to younger generations. The analysis here explains how this works and provides estimates of the cost shifting that has occurred due to the delays in financing reform. It assesses how recent proposals to address Social Security financing shortfalls shift costs to future generations and depart fundamentally from basic principles on which the system was originally based. TOPICS: Retirement, social security, pension funds, wealth management Key Findings • Policy makers have known for more than a quarter century that Social Security is under financed and the delay in rebalancing its financing will dramatically increase costs for those now entering the workforce, those now entering kindergarten, and those not yet born. • From 1990 to 2012, median real incomes of the elderly grew 29 percent, while that of families of full-time, full year working families grew 2.3 percent raising questions about the equity of increasing taxes on workers to finance across-the-board Social Security benefit increases. • Public sentiment toward maintaining or expanding Social Security benefits at the cost of higher future taxes ignores the implications for and potential sentiments of the young and unborn people who will be paying the higher taxes.
21世纪30年代初以后,美国社会保障养老金体系的资金不足,无法完全履行现行法律规定的福利义务。至少在过去的25年里,这种潜在的融资缺口已经被认识到,但政策制定者没有采取任何措施来解决这个问题。该系统的大部分资金是在现收现付的基础上筹集的,因此恢复资金平衡需要增加支持该系统的税收,减少现行法律提供的福利,或者两者兼而有之。在解决体系融资失衡问题上的拖延,已导致与养老金相关的成本从老年人转移到年轻人身上。这里的分析解释了这是如何工作的,并提供了由于融资改革延迟而发生的成本转移的估计。它评估了最近解决社会保障资金短缺的提案是如何将成本转嫁给后代的,并从根本上背离了该体系最初所依据的基本原则。主要发现•政策制定者在超过四分之一世纪的时间里就知道社会保障资金不足,延迟重新平衡其融资将大大增加那些正在进入劳动力市场、正在进入幼儿园和尚未出生的人的成本。•从1990年到2012年,老年人的实际收入中位数增长了29%,而全职工作家庭的实际收入中位数增长了2.3%,这引发了人们对增加工人税收以资助全面社会保障福利增加的公平性的质疑。•公众倾向于以未来更高的税收为代价来维持或扩大社会保障福利,而忽视了将支付更高税收的年轻人和未出生的人的潜在情绪。
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引用次数: 0
Managing to Target (II): Dynamic Adjustments for Retirement Strategies 目标管理(二):退休策略的动态调整
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-09-04 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2020.1.063
Javier Estrada
All individuals need to determine a withdrawal policy for their retirement. This decision needs to balance the goal of funding a desired lifestyle (and perhaps leaving a bequest) with the goal of not running out of money too early, which can best be achieved by outlining a financial plan. When the returns of their portfolios differ from those expected in their plans, what should retirees do? Should they statically stick to the withdrawals specified in their plans? Should they introduce dynamic adjustments to push their portfolios closer to the path outlined in the plans instead? This article evaluates two types of dynamic policies, broadly referred to as “managing to target” (M2T) strategies, that adjust either the periodic withdrawals or the portfolio’s asset allocation. Results reported show that dynamic M2T strategies outperform a static strategy of sticking to the plan and that adjusting withdrawals is superior to adjusting the portfolio’s asset allocation. TOPICS: Wealth management, retirement Key Findings • It is critical for retirees to have a financial plan that specifies annual withdrawals and a target bequest, thus outlining an expected path for their portfolio. • When market conditions change, retirees should have the flexibility to adjust their strategy and push the portfolio closer to the expected path. • When adjustments need to be made, it is better to adjust withdrawals than the portfolio’s asset allocation.
所有个人都需要为他们的退休确定一个提款政策。这一决定需要在为理想的生活方式提供资金(也许还需要留下遗产)的目标与不过早耗尽资金的目标之间取得平衡,而这最好通过制定财务计划来实现。当他们投资组合的回报与计划中的预期不同时,退休人员应该怎么办?他们是否应该静态地坚持计划中规定的提款?他们是否应该引入动态调整,使其投资组合更接近计划中列出的路径?本文评估了两种类型的动态策略,广义上称为“目标管理”(M2T)策略,用于调整定期提款或投资组合的资产配置。报告的结果表明,动态M2T策略优于坚持计划的静态策略,调整提款优于调整投资组合的资产配置。主题:财富管理,退休关键发现•对于退休人员来说,制定一个明确年度提款和目标遗赠的财务计划至关重要,从而勾勒出他们投资组合的预期路径。•当市场状况发生变化时,退休人员应该能够灵活调整策略,使投资组合更接近预期路径。•当需要进行调整时,与其调整投资组合的资产配置,不如调整提款。
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引用次数: 5
A Migrant Flow Pension Model for Small Open Economies 小型开放经济体的移民流动养老金模型
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.7.1.008
M. Laboure, J. Braunstein
Securing pensions relates to careful planning, which in turn requires adequate predictions. Among the many factors in an increasingly globalized world that impede adequate predictions is the factor of migrant flows. To date, most pension models do not consider migrant worker cohort flows. This has critical implications, particularly for pension planning in small open economies with a high inflow and outflow of migrant workers. To close that gap, the article provides a highly innovative model that considers not only population aging but also the cohort of cross-border workers and their entitlement to a partial pension in the future. It is doing that through forecasting pension cohorts annually for the native population, cross-border workers, and net migrations. Based on demographic variables, the article develops an enabling framework for policymakers. This framework outlines a set of scenarios for the long-term sustainability of pension systems in small open economies. The framework also offers important insights for larger economies with high levels of migrant flows. TOPICS: Pension funds, emerging markets, retirement
确保养老金安全需要仔细规划,而这反过来又需要充分的预测。在日益全球化的世界中,阻碍充分预测的许多因素包括移民流动因素。到目前为止,大多数养老金模型都没有考虑农民工群体流动。这具有重要意义,特别是对移民工人流入和流出量大的小型开放经济体的养老金规划。为了缩小这一差距,这篇文章提供了一个高度创新的模型,不仅考虑了人口老龄化,还考虑了跨境工人群体及其未来获得部分养老金的权利。它通过每年预测本地人口、跨境工人和净移民的养老金群体来做到这一点。文章基于人口变量,为决策者制定了一个有利的框架。该框架概述了小型开放经济体养老金制度长期可持续性的一系列情景。该框架还为移民流动率高的大型经济体提供了重要见解。主题:养老基金、新兴市场、退休
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引用次数: 0
Liabilities Matter: Improving Target Date Glidepath Construction through Liability Adaptive Asset Allocation 负债问题:通过负债适应性资产配置改进目标日期Glidepath构建
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.7.1.044
Michael W. Crook
Target date glidepath funds have become extraordinarily popular in defined contribution plans during the past decade. Most glidepath strategies are based, fundamentally, on the idea that investors have bond-like human capital that slowly depletes during their career, and therefore investors should complement their human capital depletion with a declining equity glidepath as they progress toward retirement. Despite the theoretical attractiveness, the human capital approach unfortunately falls flat from an empirical and practical standpoint. In this article the author proposes a new liability-adaptive approach for target date glidepath construction. By moving away from a human capital approach and instead focusing on future retirement liabilities, the author shows that plan sponsors can improve outcomes for participants. The author also believes this framework enables sponsors to better communicate the underlying assumptions in their glidepath offering to participants who are planning for retirement. Finally, the author shows how financial advisors can use the same framework with individual investors and families to improve outcomes on a customized basis. TOPICS: Retirement, long-term/retirement investing, pension funds
在过去十年中,目标日期滑行道基金在固定缴款计划中变得格外流行。从根本上说,大多数滑行道策略都是基于这样一种观点,即投资者拥有像债券一样的人力资本,在其职业生涯中会慢慢耗尽,因此投资者应该在接近退休的过程中,用不断下降的股权滑行道来补充其人力资本的消耗。尽管人力资本理论很有吸引力,但不幸的是,从实证和实践的角度来看,人力资本方法是失败的。本文提出了一种新的责任自适应的目标日期滑行道构造方法。通过从人力资本方法转向关注未来的退休负债,作者表明,计划发起人可以改善参与者的结果。作者还认为,这个框架使发起人能够更好地向计划退休的参与者传达他们提供的滑翔路径中的潜在假设。最后,作者展示了财务顾问如何在个人投资者和家庭中使用相同的框架来改善定制基础上的结果。主题:退休,长期/退休投资,养老基金
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引用次数: 2
Editor’s Letter 编者的信
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-31 DOI: 10.3905/jor.2019.7.1.001
Brett Hammond
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Retirement
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