This paper uses firm level data from the World Bank Enterprise surveys conducted in 2019 and from the COVID-19 follow-up surveys conducted in 2020 in eight European countries to investigate the link between exporting before the pandemic and firm survival until 2020. The estimated effect of exports is positive and statistically significant ceteris paribus after controlling for various firm characteristics that are known to be related to firm survival. Furthermore, the size of this estimated effect can be considered to be large on average. Exporting helped firms to survive.
{"title":"Exports and Firm Survival in Times of COVID-19 – Evidence from Eight European Countries","authors":"Joachim Wagner","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0095","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper uses firm level data from the World Bank Enterprise surveys conducted in 2019 and from the COVID-19 follow-up surveys conducted in 2020 in eight European countries to investigate the link between exporting before the pandemic and firm survival until 2020. The estimated effect of exports is positive and statistically significant ceteris paribus after controlling for various firm characteristics that are known to be related to firm survival. Furthermore, the size of this estimated effect can be considered to be large on average. Exporting helped firms to survive.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"125 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140790297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasting performance of alternative specifications and estimation methods. These computations confirm the statistical and economic significance of infectious-disease episodes in forecasting international tourism flows. Including infectious diseases in the model brings a significant improvement in forecast accuracy relative to the standard gravity model. The magnitude of these effects, however, is likely to be much greater in the case of COVID-19, which is a highly contagious virus that has spread fast throughout populations across the world.
{"title":"Peering Through the Fog of Uncertainty: Out-of-Sample Forecasts of Post-Pandemic Tourism","authors":"Serhan Cevik","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0110","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasting performance of alternative specifications and estimation methods. These computations confirm the statistical and economic significance of infectious-disease episodes in forecasting international tourism flows. Including infectious diseases in the model brings a significant improvement in forecast accuracy relative to the standard gravity model. The magnitude of these effects, however, is likely to be much greater in the case of COVID-19, which is a highly contagious virus that has spread fast throughout populations across the world.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"48 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140796237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The HWWI Commodity Price Index, which aims at reflecting price developments of raw materials imported by highly industrialized countries, dates back to the 1950s. This paper explains the calculation of the index at the example of its latest revision, which became effective on 1st September 2023. While the index and its subindices are still calculated for OECD and European Momentary Union countries at four different frequencies (annual, monthly, quarterly and daily) for two different currencies (USD, EUR), it now additionally includes index values for several weighting periods (long-term: 2012–2021, pre-crisis: 2017–2019 and crisis years: 2020–2021), for individual countries and for different perspectives (daily revised, real-time and historical time series). The paper also provides detailed information on the employed methodology and the input data (commodities, import data, prices) used to calculate the weights and the index values. Although the revision is not without effect on the resulting index values, especially throughout the crises periods, the correlation between the initial and the revised index remains very high.
{"title":"HWWI Commodity Price Index: A Technical Documentation of the 2023 Revision","authors":"Michael Berlemann, Marina Eurich, Hennes Meyer","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0109","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The HWWI Commodity Price Index, which aims at reflecting price developments of raw materials imported by highly industrialized countries, dates back to the 1950s. This paper explains the calculation of the index at the example of its latest revision, which became effective on 1st September 2023. While the index and its subindices are still calculated for OECD and European Momentary Union countries at four different frequencies (annual, monthly, quarterly and daily) for two different currencies (USD, EUR), it now additionally includes index values for several weighting periods (long-term: 2012–2021, pre-crisis: 2017–2019 and crisis years: 2020–2021), for individual countries and for different perspectives (daily revised, real-time and historical time series). The paper also provides detailed information on the employed methodology and the input data (commodities, import data, prices) used to calculate the weights and the index values. Although the revision is not without effect on the resulting index values, especially throughout the crises periods, the correlation between the initial and the revised index remains very high.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140769344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Japan and Germany are both facing a rapidly aging population and have similar social insurance-based long-term care systems. However, there are significant differences in utilization and costs. This paper presents a microeconomic decision model validated by regression analysis, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, and Data Envelopment Analysis to contrast the utilization patterns in the Japanese and German long-term care sectors. The design of the welfare programs for low-income families has been identified as one of the main reasons. In Germany, the welfare system leads to a demand curve for nursing home care that is comparable to that of an inferior good which makes external long-term care in nursing homes the more attractive, the poorer the respective households are. In addition, the resulting inelastic demand of the population groups in need of social benefits seem to reduces competition among Germany’s long-term care providers, which is associated with a loss of efficiency in how they use production factors. In Japan, this negative outcome is avoided by a comfort segmentation in the nursing home market.
{"title":"Does the Design of Welfare Programs Stipulate Nursing Home Utilization? A Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Care Systems in Japan and Germany","authors":"Danny Wende, Alexander Karmann, Shinya Sugawara","doi":"10.1515/roe-2024-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2024-0011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Japan and Germany are both facing a rapidly aging population and have similar social insurance-based long-term care systems. However, there are significant differences in utilization and costs. This paper presents a microeconomic decision model validated by regression analysis, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, and Data Envelopment Analysis to contrast the utilization patterns in the Japanese and German long-term care sectors. The design of the welfare programs for low-income families has been identified as one of the main reasons. In Germany, the welfare system leads to a demand curve for nursing home care that is comparable to that of an inferior good which makes external long-term care in nursing homes the more attractive, the poorer the respective households are. In addition, the resulting inelastic demand of the population groups in need of social benefits seem to reduces competition among Germany’s long-term care providers, which is associated with a loss of efficiency in how they use production factors. In Japan, this negative outcome is avoided by a comfort segmentation in the nursing home market.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"126 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140772310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Birendra Narayan Shah, Jinyoung Hwang, Sacit Hadi Akdede
Abstract Using data on 71 aid recipient countries over the period 2000–2019, this study examines the effect of the size and composition of foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, ODA) on economic growth. The size of ODA is positively correlated with growth, and the impact of an increase in ODA on growth decreases when ODA reaches a certain level. The influence of the composition of ODA in terms of grants and loans on growth is estimated differently depending on sample selection. The sample is divided into two sub-samples based on the median of the corruption perception index. The regression results show that grants have a positive and significant impact on growth without sample selection. However, loans have a positive and significant impact on growth in the sub-sample of less corrupt countries, but a negative and significant impact on growth in the sub-sample of more corrupt countries. Therefore, the results suggest that ODA is useful for inducing growth in the early stages of development. However, improvement in the economic environment in terms of reduced corruption is required to increase the positive impact of ODA in the form of loans on growth.
{"title":"Aid–Growth Nexus and Corruption","authors":"Birendra Narayan Shah, Jinyoung Hwang, Sacit Hadi Akdede","doi":"10.1515/roe-2022-0041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2022-0041","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using data on 71 aid recipient countries over the period 2000–2019, this study examines the effect of the size and composition of foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, ODA) on economic growth. The size of ODA is positively correlated with growth, and the impact of an increase in ODA on growth decreases when ODA reaches a certain level. The influence of the composition of ODA in terms of grants and loans on growth is estimated differently depending on sample selection. The sample is divided into two sub-samples based on the median of the corruption perception index. The regression results show that grants have a positive and significant impact on growth without sample selection. However, loans have a positive and significant impact on growth in the sub-sample of less corrupt countries, but a negative and significant impact on growth in the sub-sample of more corrupt countries. Therefore, the results suggest that ODA is useful for inducing growth in the early stages of development. However, improvement in the economic environment in terms of reduced corruption is required to increase the positive impact of ODA in the form of loans on growth.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"72 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135515951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The post-pandemic rise in consumer prices across the world has renewed interest in inflation dynamics after decades of global disinflation. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a granular investigation of inflation persistence at the city level in Lithuania during the period 2000–2021, as well as a comparison of inflation persistence at the country level vis-à-vis the eurozone over the same period. Using disaggregate monthly data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) collected in five major cities, the empirical analysis finds a mixed and ambiguous picture of inflation persistence across all CPI subcomponents. While there are mixed results for persistence of the headline inflation, most consumption categories exhibit significant persistence. As a result, shocks may not remain transitory and instead have persistent effects that could spillover across subcomponents depending on the size of the shock.
{"title":"Breaking Bad: A Disaggregated Analysis of Inflation Inertia","authors":"Serhan Cevik","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0070","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The post-pandemic rise in consumer prices across the world has renewed interest in inflation dynamics after decades of global disinflation. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a granular investigation of inflation persistence at the city level in Lithuania during the period 2000–2021, as well as a comparison of inflation persistence at the country level vis-à-vis the eurozone over the same period. Using disaggregate monthly data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) collected in five major cities, the empirical analysis finds a mixed and ambiguous picture of inflation persistence across all CPI subcomponents. While there are mixed results for persistence of the headline inflation, most consumption categories exhibit significant persistence. As a result, shocks may not remain transitory and instead have persistent effects that could spillover across subcomponents depending on the size of the shock.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"71 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135515960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the impact of minimum wage on domestic violence, considering employment status of both the woman and her partner, as well as formal or informal employment. The study focuses on physical, sexual, and psychological violence, proposing two channels: the woman’s channel based on economic dependence theory, and the partner channel based on theories of financial stress and relative resources. Various empirical strategies, including cross-sectional regression, diff-in-diff, and triple difference, are employed using data from the demographic and family health survey. The findings indicate that increasing the minimum wage reduces domestic violence against women, considering direct effects and the influence of both the woman and her partner. Despite concerns about the informal labor market in Peru and the benefits of minimum wage, this research suggests positive societal effects such as reduced domestic violence.
{"title":"Domestic Violence, Labor Market, and Minimum Wage: Theory and Evidence","authors":"Carlos Chavez","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the impact of minimum wage on domestic violence, considering employment status of both the woman and her partner, as well as formal or informal employment. The study focuses on physical, sexual, and psychological violence, proposing two channels: the woman’s channel based on economic dependence theory, and the partner channel based on theories of financial stress and relative resources. Various empirical strategies, including cross-sectional regression, diff-in-diff, and triple difference, are employed using data from the demographic and family health survey. The findings indicate that increasing the minimum wage reduces domestic violence against women, considering direct effects and the influence of both the woman and her partner. Despite concerns about the informal labor market in Peru and the benefits of minimum wage, this research suggests positive societal effects such as reduced domestic violence.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"41 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135510311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article examines the pattern of female labour force participation since the 2000s in South Asia (SA) and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries. The objectives of the paper are twofold: first, to identify the factors that have led to changes in the patterns of female labour force participation in the two fastest-growing regions of SA and LAC and compare the underlying reasons behind the disparate trends; and second, to explore the policies appropriate for the two regions that can raise female labour force participation. From descriptive statistics and a review of existing research on gender inequality in employment in the two regions, the paper finds that a plethora of factors shape the extent of gender inequality in labour force participation. However, each of the factors has different roles and importance in the two regions, debunking any particular relationship pattern between economic growth and the gender gap in labour force participation. Hence, it is imperative to formulate multipronged, country- and region-specific policies.
{"title":"Disparities in Female Labour Force Participation in South Asia and Latin America: A Review","authors":"Ujjaini Mukhopadhyay","doi":"10.1515/roe-2022-0061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2022-0061","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article examines the pattern of female labour force participation since the 2000s in South Asia (SA) and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries. The objectives of the paper are twofold: first, to identify the factors that have led to changes in the patterns of female labour force participation in the two fastest-growing regions of SA and LAC and compare the underlying reasons behind the disparate trends; and second, to explore the policies appropriate for the two regions that can raise female labour force participation. From descriptive statistics and a review of existing research on gender inequality in employment in the two regions, the paper finds that a plethora of factors shape the extent of gender inequality in labour force participation. However, each of the factors has different roles and importance in the two regions, debunking any particular relationship pattern between economic growth and the gender gap in labour force participation. Hence, it is imperative to formulate multipronged, country- and region-specific policies.","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"69 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135515786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1515/roe-2023-frontmatter3
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-frontmatter3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-frontmatter3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"71 9","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135515956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1515/roe-2023-frontmatter2
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-frontmatter2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-frontmatter2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36460,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics","volume":"183 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136136977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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