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RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECEDING SEISMICITY AND THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG AFTERSHOCK OCCURRENCE 前震活动性与强余震发生概率的关系
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2019.3-1
S. Baranov, P. Shebalin
The paper considers the relationship of seismicity, preceding the main shock, with the emergence probability of strong aftershocks in the future series. (Strong aftershock in the sense of Bath's law means that its magnitude not lower than the average difference of magnitudes of the strongest aftershocks and their mainshocks.) A hypothesis of the research – strong aftershocks are more likely to occur due to mainshocks occurred in places of high background seismicity. Testing the hypothesis at the global level was carried out using ANSS ComCat earthquake catalog US Geological Survey, at the regional level – using earthquake catalogs provided by Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences for seismic regions of Russia (Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands, Baikal and Transbaikalia, the North Caucasus). We tested several functions that characterize previous background seismic activity relative to the mainshock. The values of the functions were considered as a possible precursor or anti-precursor of a strong aftershock. The effectiveness of the precursor (anti-precursor) was evaluated by a specially developed criterion, representing the ratio of the sum of all successful forecasts to the number of all unsuccessful forecasts. The value at which the maximum efficiency is achieved was taken as a threshold. The value of the previous activity greater or less than the threshold was considered as a precursor or anti-precursor of a strong aftershock, respectively. As a result, the hypothesis of the study was confirmed at the global and regional levels, regardless of the method of measuring previous seismic activity. The most informative characteristic of activity is the ratio of the accumulated seismic moment of background earthquakes preceding the main shock to the time of the main shock, normalized to the area of the circle bounding the background seismicity region. The probability of expected repeated shocks was estimated using the Reasenberg–Jones model depending on time and magnitude. We estimated the model parameters for the Earth and seismically active regions of Russia both with and without preceding seismicity. Comparison of theoretical and model values of the probability of occurrence of at least one strong aftershock at different time intervals showed that the model corresponds well with the initial data. Using the probabil ity gain, we shown that Reasenberg–Jones model, which takes into account preceding background seismicity, is more preferable than the model without it.
本文考虑了主震前的地震活动性与未来一系列强余震发生概率的关系。(巴斯定律意义上的强余震是指其震级不低于最强余震及其主震的平均震级差。)本研究的一个假设是,由于主震发生在高背景地震活动性的地方,因此更容易发生强烈余震。在全球层面上,使用ANSS ComCat地震目录对这一假设进行了检验。在区域层面上,使用俄罗斯科学院地球物理服务提供的俄罗斯地震区(堪察加和千岛群岛、贝加尔湖和外贝加尔、北高加索)的地震目录。我们测试了几个函数,这些函数描述了相对于主震的以前的背景地震活动。这些函数值被认为可能是强余震的前兆或反前兆。前驱体(反前驱体)的有效性由一个特别制定的标准来评估,该标准表示所有成功预测的总和与所有不成功预测的数量之比。达到最高效率的值作为阈值。以前的活动值大于或小于阈值分别被认为是强余震的前兆或反前兆。因此,无论测量以前地震活动的方法如何,该研究的假设在全球和区域一级得到了证实。地震活动最具信息量的特征是主震前背景地震的累积地震矩与主震时间之比,归一化为背景地震活动区边界的圆圈面积。根据时间和震级,使用里森伯格-琼斯模型估计预期的重复冲击的概率。我们估计了地球和俄罗斯地震活跃地区的模型参数,无论是否有地震活动。不同时间间隔至少一次强余震发生概率的理论值与模型值的比较表明,该模型与初始数据吻合较好。利用概率增益,我们证明了考虑了之前背景地震活动的Reasenberg-Jones模型比不考虑它的模型更优选。
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引用次数: 1
THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF GENERATION OF ATMOSPHERIC INTERNAL GRAVITY WAVES INDUCED BY INHOMOGENEITIES IN GRAVITATIONAL FIELD 引力场非均匀性诱导大气内部重力波产生的三维模型
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2019.1-1
L. Ingel, A. A. Makosko
In modern models of geophysical fluid dynamics, the gravitational field is usually taken uniform and defined by the single parameter. It is known, however, that the average gravitational force at the earth’s surface is superimposed upon by a broad spectrum of gravitational force anomalies (GFAs). This is due mainly to inhomogeneities of the distribution of mass in the Earth’s crust. Variations in the gravitational force are certainly very small in magnitude compared to the average value. It is important, however, that such inhomogeneities generate a gravitational-force component tangential to earth's ellipsoid. In plane mesoscale models using Cartesian coordinates (an f-plane or a β-plane), this means that additional volume inhomogeneous forces with a horizontal component have to be taken into account. The dynamics of the atmosphere is quite sensitive to such components. Recently we showed that in the highly anomalous regions GFAs, in principle, can lead to appreciable dynamic effects, in particular, the generation of regular currents and internal gravity waves (IGW). But this analysis has so far been limited to two-dimensional problems (that is, the effects of two-dimensional GFAs were considered). In this paper, the next step is taken: in the linear approximation, IGW generation in the atmosphere is analytically studied under the action of three-dimensional GFAs on the atmospheric flow above a flat horizontal underlying surface. The terms in the expressions obtained for velocity components and pressure perturbations can be divided into two categories. One of them directly describes flow around equipotential surfaces. These terms do not contain waves propagating with vertical component and slowly decay with altitude on the same scales as the gravity anomaly. Other terms describe internal gravity waves, whose phase velocity is directed downward and the group velocity, upward. The amplitude of these waves in the velocity field exponentially increases with altitude. Taking into account the three-dimensional geometry of GFAs in the three-dimensional formulation can lead to a noticeable change in results in comparison with the two-dimensional model considered earlier. In addition to the appearance of horizontal motions perpendicular to the background flow, the wavelength and the vertical flux of wave energy can markedly vary: GFAs elongated along the stream can lead to smaller perturbations in amplitude than the “ridge” oriented perpendicular to the background flow. The analytical expression is derived; it shows that the mentioned energy flow is proportional to the background buoyancy frequency, to the squares of the GFAs amplitudes, and to the background flow velocity. According to numerical estimates, this flow can be noticeable, although it is usually much inferior to IGW sources associated with the relief.
在现代地球物理流体动力学模型中,引力场通常是均匀的,并由单一参数定义。然而,众所周知,地球表面的平均引力是由引力异常(gfa)的广谱叠加而成的。这主要是由于地壳中质量分布的不均匀性。与平均值相比,引力的变化幅度当然很小。然而,重要的是,这种不均匀性产生了与地球椭球相切的引力分量。在使用笛卡尔坐标(f平面或β平面)的平面中尺度模型中,这意味着必须考虑具有水平分量的额外体积非均匀力。大气的动力学对这些成分是相当敏感的。最近我们表明,在高度异常的区域,原则上,gfa可以导致明显的动态效应,特别是产生规则电流和内部重力波(IGW)。但到目前为止,这种分析仅限于二维问题(也就是说,考虑了二维gfa的影响)。本文的下一步工作是:在线性近似下,分析研究了在平坦水平下垫面以上的大气流动中,三维gfa作用下大气中IGW的产生。得到的速度分量和压力扰动表达式中的项可分为两类。其中一个直接描述了绕等势面流动。这些项不包括以垂直分量传播的波,在与重力异常相同的尺度上随高度缓慢衰减。其他术语描述的是内部重力波,其相速度向下,群速度向上。这些波在速度场中的振幅随高度呈指数增长。与之前考虑的二维模型相比,在三维公式中考虑gfa的三维几何形状可以导致结果的显着变化。除了出现垂直于背景流的水平运动外,波长和波能的垂直通量也会发生显著变化:与垂直于背景流的“脊”相比,沿流延伸的gfa在振幅上的扰动更小。导出解析表达式;结果表明,上述能量流与背景浮力频率、gfa振幅的平方和背景流速成正比。根据数值估计,这种流动可以被注意到,尽管它通常远不如与救济有关的IGW源。
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引用次数: 0
IMPROVEMENT OF METHODICAL RECEPTIONS FOR LOG DATA INTERPRETATION AT EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF INFILTRATION URANIUM MINE FIELDS 渗透型铀矿田勘探开发测井资料解释方法接收的改进
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2019.2-3
D. A. Legavko
The description of the software realization for automated interpretation method of primary logging complex data in open hole of technological wells, constructed during the development of infiltration uranium mine fields by in situ leaching method is presented. The description of the software module that implements the previously developed methodical approach for interpretation of resistance logging data in the sandy-clay section is provided. Short characteristics of the program for gamma-ray logging data interpretation and calculation of linear stocks of uranium with using the method of morphological join of balance ore intervals are given.
介绍了采用原位浸出法开发渗透铀矿田过程中建立的工艺井裸眼原始测井复杂资料自动解释方法的软件实现。介绍了软件模块,该模块实现了先前开发的用于解释砂-粘土段电阻测井数据的方法。介绍了利用平衡矿段形态联接法解释和计算铀线性储量的伽马测井资料程序的特点。
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引用次数: 1
ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC AZIMUTHAL ANISOTROPY PARAMETERS OF THE UPPER MANTLE OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EAST-EUROPEAN CRATON ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE “OBNINSK” AND “MIKHNEVO” SEISMIC STATIONS 根据“obninsk”和“mikhnevo”地震台站资料估算东欧克拉通中部上地幔方位各向异性参数
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2019.3-2
V. Adushkin, A. Goev, I. Sanina
The results of determining the parameters of seismic anisotropy of the upper mantle of the central part of the East-European craton are given. According to the tectonic concepts actively developing in recent decades, the East-European craton consists of megablocks (microplates) of different age: there are three main megablocks – Fennoscandia, Volga-Uralia and Sarmatia. The area of their triple junction is the subject of this article. The SKS/SKKS anisotropy method was applied. Its essence is to use SKS phases in order to obtain delay times for the arrival of two quasi-shear waves that are formed during the trace of a shear wave through an anisotropic medium and gets through it with different velocities. The result is to simulate the azimuth of the maximum velocity axis along which “fast” quasi-shear wave trace and to get the delay time between “fast” and “slow” waves. The technique does not allow to obtain accurate estimates of the depth of the anisotropic layer, however, taking into account the long periods of the SKS wave and the pronounced anisotropic properties of olivine, as the main material composing the upper mantle, it is assumed that these effects are related to the mantle processes. Authors used the data from “Obninsk” (OBN) and “Mikhnevo” (MHV) stations that are located in the zone of the triple junction of blocks. For Obninsk station – 1266 events were used, for Mikhnevo station – 472. For each station, we obtained estimates of the azimuth of the maximum speed axis and the delay time of arrival of quasi-shear waves. As a result of the study, the mantle anisotropy of the region is assessed as weak, which is an expected result for tectonically stable platform regions (delay time 0.4 s for the OBN station and 0.2 s for the MHV station). The direction of the maximum speed axis is strictly sub-latitude (90 for the OBN and 100 for MHV station), which is in accordance with the known the East-European lithospheric plate motion. For the OBN station, two groups of events were identified, with significantly different results, structured by azimuth. For events mainly with western azimuths of arrival of seismic waves, the solution is 90 and 0.4 s, while processing events from the eastern direction of arrival, along with a coordinated solution, a second pronounced local extremum is detected, corresponding to angles and delay time about 0.5–1.0 s. According to the results of MHV data processing, a second local extremum was also found, corresponding to similar angles of about 160, however, with a shorter delay time (about 0.1–0.2 s). It can be assumed that the presence of two extrema is associated with the anisotropic parameters of two different megablocks, near the junction boundary of which are located the OBN and MHV stations.
本文给出了确定东欧克拉通中部上地幔地震各向异性参数的结果。根据近几十年来积极发展的构造概念,东欧克拉通由不同时代的巨型板块(微板块)组成:主要有三个巨型板块:芬诺斯坎迪亚、伏尔加-乌拉利亚和萨尔马提亚。这篇文章的主题是它们的三重交界处。采用SKS/SKKS各向异性法。其实质是利用SKS相位来获得两个准横波到达的延迟时间,这两个准横波是在横波经过各向异性介质时形成的,并以不同的速度穿过该介质。结果是模拟了“快”准横波沿最大速度轴的方位角,得到了“快”波和“慢”波之间的延迟时间。该技术不能获得各向异性层深度的准确估计,但是,考虑到SKS波的长周期和橄榄石的明显的各向异性特性,作为上地幔的主要组成物质,可以假设这些影响与地幔过程有关。作者使用的数据来自“Obninsk”(OBN)和“Mikhnevo”(MHV)站,这两个站位于街区的三重交界处。奥布宁斯克站使用了1266个事件,米赫涅沃站使用了472个事件。对于每个台站,我们估计了最大速度轴的方位角和准横波到达的延迟时间。研究结果表明,该地区地幔各向异性评价为弱,这是构造稳定台地区的预期结果(OBN站延迟时间为0.4 s, MHV站延迟时间为0.2 s)。最大速度轴的方向为严格的亚纬度(OBN站为90,MHV站为100),与已知的东欧岩石圈板块运动一致。对于OBN台站,确定了两组事件,根据方位角结构得出了显著不同的结果。对于地震波到达方位角主要为西方的事件,解为90±0.4 s,而对地震波到达方位角主要为东方的事件,在协调解的同时,检测到第二个明显的局部极值,对应的角度和延迟时间约为0.5 ~ 1.0 s。根据MHV数据处理的结果,还发现了第二个局部极值,对应的角度相似,约为160°,但延迟时间较短(约0.1-0.2 s),可以认为这两个极值的存在与两个不同兆锁的各向异性参数有关,在其交界处附近分别有OBN和MHV站。
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引用次数: 0
MAPPING OF VOLCANIC STRUCTURES OF WESTERN-TRANSBAIKALIA PROMISING FOR THE SEARCH OF MINERAL DEPOSITS BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF AEROMAGNETIC DATA 基于航磁数据分析的西跨贝加尔湖火山构造填图为找矿提供了新的思路
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2019.2-6
P. Goryachev
The method for analyzing the distribution of points with extreme values of the effective magnetization obtained as a result of solving the inverse problem using materials of high-precision aeromagnetic survey is presented. To study the structure of volcanic structures and make recommendations for their mapping, the processing of magnetic data was performed using the Baltika interpretation system. A feature of the algorithm for formalized calculation of the physical properties of the medium implemented in this system is the use of the gradient model. It is accepted that the physical properties of the model in the horizontal direction change according to a polynomial law, and in the vertical direction – in a piecewise linear manner. On the basis of the obtained distribution, points with extreme values of the effective magnetization and the corresponding equivalent regions were distinguished. The results of solving the inverse problem of magnetic potential, obtained for the Naran region, are presented. These data allow us to predict the features of the geological section formed by rocks with various magnetic properties and to map volcanic-dome structures.
提出了利用高精度航磁测量材料求解反问题得到的有效磁化极值点的分布分析方法。为了研究火山构造的结构并为其制图提出建议,利用波罗的海解释系统对磁数据进行了处理。该系统实现的介质物理性质形式化计算算法的一个特点是使用了梯度模型。人们普遍认为,模型的物理性质在水平方向上按多项式规律变化,而在垂直方向上则以分段线性方式变化。在此基础上,区分了有效磁化强度极值点及其对应的等效区域。本文给出了求解纳兰地区磁势逆问题的结果。这些数据使我们能够预测由具有不同磁性的岩石组成的地质剖面的特征,并绘制火山穹窿构造图。
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引用次数: 0
ON THE NONSTATIONARY PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICAL MEDIA 地球物理介质中的非平稳过程
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2018.4-1
A. Guglielmi, A. Potapov
In this methodological article we consider the effects that arise from the nonstationarity of the geospheres, namely, the magnetosphere, the atmosphere, and the lithosphere. The intensification of convection in the magnetosphere during the geomagnetic storm leads to the self-excitation of the electromagnetic ULF oscillations of the increasing frequency in the dusk sector. The paper gives a vivid example of observing oscillations of the increasing frequency at the mid-latitude Mondy station. It illustrates the exceptional complexity of nonstationary processes actually occurring in the magnetosphere. In the upper atmosphere (in the ionosphere), after the sunset, the source of ionization is turned off and the electron concentration begins to decrease. The nonstationarity of the medium consists in a monotonous decrease in the temperature of the atmosphere after the sunset, and it is manifested in the fact that the evolution of the electron density deviates noticeably from the prediction on the basis of a simple theory of recombination. This example is interesting in that it gives the key to understanding the known deviation of the aftershocks stream in the lithosphere from the simple Omori hyperbolic law. The marked analogy gives us an idea, firstly, to present the law in the form of a differential equation for the evolution of aftershocks and, secondly, gives us a non-trivial generalization of the Omori law, which takes into account the nonstationarity of the earthquake focus “cooling off” after the main shock. Methodologically, the above examples are supplemented by the hose MHD instability in the expanding solar corona, and the Jeans gravitational instability in the expanding Universe. The general conclusion is that it is necessary to carefully analyze the possible manifestations of the nonstationarity of the environment, even if the nonstationarity is smooth and, at first glance, is irrelevant.
在这篇方法学文章中,我们考虑了地圈(即磁层、大气和岩石圈)的非平稳性所产生的影响。磁暴期间磁层对流的增强导致了黄昏扇区电磁极低频振荡频率增加的自激。本文给出了在中纬度星期一站观测频率渐增的振荡的一个生动例子。它说明了磁层中实际发生的非平稳过程的异常复杂性。在高层大气(电离层),日落之后,电离源被关闭,电子浓度开始下降。介质的非平稳性表现为日落后大气温度的单调下降,表现为电子密度的演变明显偏离基于简单复合理论的预测。这个例子很有趣,因为它提供了理解已知的岩石圈余震流偏离简单的Omori双曲定律的关键。这个明显的类比给了我们一个想法,首先,用微分方程的形式来表示余震演变的规律,其次,给了我们一个非平凡的Omori定律的推广,它考虑了地震焦点在主震后“冷却”的非平稳性。在方法上,上述例子还补充了膨胀日冕中的hose MHD不稳定性和膨胀宇宙中的Jeans引力不稳定性。总的结论是,有必要仔细分析环境非平稳性的可能表现,即使这种非平稳性是平滑的,乍一看是无关紧要的。
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引用次数: 1
MORPHOLOGY OF REGIONAL MAGNETIC ANOMALIES IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE AND SURROUNDING TERRITORY 贝加尔湖裂谷带及其周边地区区域磁异常形态
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2018.4-3
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引用次数: 0
MODERN GEODYNAMICS OF THE SOUTHERN OF THE YENISEI RIDGE DERIVED FROM THE RESULTS OF SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS 叶尼塞山脊南部现代地球动力学的卫星观测结果
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2018.4-5
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引用次数: 4
UPDATE OF PARAMETERS OF SOME SEISMIC EVENTS IN THE VORKUTA AREA WITHIN 1971–2016 沃尔库塔地区1971~2016年部分地震事件参数的更新
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2018.4-4
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引用次数: 0
SOURCEWISE APPROXIMATION OF GEOPOTENTIAL FIELDS. FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE 位势场的逐源逼近。从理论到实践
Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.21455/gr2018.4-2
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引用次数: 1
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