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An Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 and its Effects on Indonesia’S Economy: A Dynamic Simulation Estimation COVID-19的传播及其对印度尼西亚经济的影响分析:动态模拟估计
Pub Date : 2020-05-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3597004
L. B. Sihombing, L. Malczynski, Jake Jacobson, H. G. Soeparto, Darma T. Saptodewo
The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has spread all over the world, including Indonesia, and as the rate increases each day, the death toll also rise. However, the effects of the outbreak on the economy has not been calculated especially in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the disease on Indonesia’s economy. Hence, A System Dynamics method was used, and the results showed there are four scenarios which are worst, bad, moderate, and desirable. Furthermore, in order to ensure economic growth of 3.5%, a vaccine needs to be discovered by August 2020, recovery period of 7 days, ventilator efficiency of 70%, hospital bed capacity of 51,161, and social distancing needs to be practiced. Therefore, these results can be useful for policy makers to handle the pandemic.
冠状病毒病COVID-19已经蔓延到包括印度尼西亚在内的世界各地,随着发病率的上升,死亡人数也在上升。然而,疫情对经济的影响尚未得到计算,特别是在发展中国家。因此,本研究的目的是分析这种疾病对印度尼西亚经济的影响。因此,采用A系统动力学方法,结果显示有最差、糟糕、中等和理想四种情况。此外,为了确保3.5%的经济增长,需要在2020年8月之前发现疫苗,恢复期为7天,呼吸机效率达到70%,医院床位容量达到51161张,并实行社会距离。因此,这些结果可能对决策者应对大流行有用。
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引用次数: 8
More Battles among Licensed Occupations: Estimating the Effects of Scope of Practice and Direct Access on the Chiropractic, Physical Therapist, and Physician Labor Market 持牌职业之间的更多斗争:评估实践范围和直接准入对脊椎按摩师、物理治疗师和医生劳动力市场的影响
Pub Date : 2016-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3191495
E. Timmons, J. Hockenberry, C. Durrance
Primary-care physicians, chiropractors, and physical therapists (PTs) may all potentially treat patients experiencing back and neck pain — a $300 billion market. In this paper, we examine how state-level changes in chiropractic scope of practice and PT direct access to patients influence the wages, hours worked, and employment of each practitioner. Our results suggest that expansions in chiropractic scope of practice are associated with an increase in average chiropractor wages and a slight reduction in the average hours chiropractors work per week. We find little evidence that PT direct access has affected the labor market for any of the three studied practitioners.
初级保健医生、脊椎按摩师和物理治疗师(PTs)都有可能治疗背部和颈部疼痛的患者——这是一个价值3000亿美元的市场。在本文中,我们研究了国家层面上脊椎按摩的实践范围和PT直接接触患者的变化如何影响每个从业者的工资、工作时间和就业。我们的研究结果表明,脊医执业范围的扩大与脊医平均工资的增加和脊医每周平均工作时间的略微减少有关。我们发现几乎没有证据表明,PT直接访问已经影响了任何三个研究从业者的劳动力市场。
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引用次数: 11
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Andrew Young: Health Policy Center (Topic)
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