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Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models 用随机模型预测种群灭绝或疾病爆发
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2016.1264870
L. Allen, S. Jang, L. Roeger
Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.
指数增长模型、逻辑增长模型和流行病模型是本科微分方程课程中常见的应用。相应的随机模型不是这些课程的一部分,尽管当人口规模较小时,它们的行为通常更现实,与确定性模型明显不同。例如,即使在指数增长的人口中,与出生和死亡相关的随机性也可能导致人口灭绝。本文介绍了连续时间马尔可夫链的一些背景知识以及在人口、流行病和癌症方面的应用,目的是将这一主题引入本科数学课程,从而鼓励对守恒、传染病和癌症治疗问题的进一步研究。在附录中提供了绘制随机模型样本路径的MATLAB程序。
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引用次数: 7
A mathematical system for human implantable wound model studies 用于人体植入式伤口模型研究的数学系统
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1300075
P. Salomonsky, R. Segal
In this work, we present a mathematical model, which accounts for two fundamental processes involved in the repair of an acute dermal wound. These processes include the inflammatory response and fibroplasia. Our system describes each of these events through the time evolution of four primary species or variables. These include the density of initial damage, inflammatory cells, fibroblasts and deposition of new collagen matrix. Since it is difficult to populate the equations of our model with coefficients that have been empirically derived, we fit these constants by carrying out a large number of simulations until there is reasonable agreement between the time response of the variables of our system and those reported by the literature for normal healing. Once a suitable choice of parameters has been made, we then compare simulation results with data obtained from clinical investigations. While more data is desired, we have a promising first step towards describing the primary events of wound repair within the confines of an implantable system.
在这项工作中,我们提出了一个数学模型,它说明了涉及修复急性皮肤伤口的两个基本过程。这些过程包括炎症反应和纤维增生。我们的系统通过四个主要物种或变量的时间演化来描述每一个事件。这些包括初始损伤、炎症细胞、成纤维细胞和新胶原基质沉积的密度。由于很难用经验推导的系数填充我们的模型方程,因此我们通过进行大量模拟来拟合这些常数,直到我们系统变量的时间响应与文献中报道的正常愈合的时间响应之间存在合理的一致。一旦选择了合适的参数,我们就会将模拟结果与临床研究获得的数据进行比较。虽然需要更多的数据,但我们在描述植入式系统范围内伤口修复的主要事件方面迈出了有希望的第一步。
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引用次数: 2
Management of invasive Allee species 入侵通道物种的管理
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1331712
D. M. Chan, C. Kent, D. Johnson
Abstract In this study, we use a discrete, two-patch population model of an Allee species to examine different methods in managing invasions. We first analytically examine the model to show the presence of the strong Allee effect, and then we numerically explore the model to test the effectiveness of different management strategies. As expected invasion is facilitated by lower Allee thresholds, greater carrying capacities and greater proportions of dispersers. These effects are interacting, however, and moderated by population growth rate. Using the gypsy moth as an example species, we demonstrate that the effectiveness of different invasion management strategies is context-dependent, combining complementary methods may be preferable, and the preferred strategy may differ geographically. Specifically, we find methods for restricting movement to be more effective in areas of contiguous habitat and high Allee thresholds, where methods involving mating disruptions and raising Allee thresholds are more effective in areas of high habitat fragmentation.
摘要在这项研究中,我们使用Allee物种的离散双斑块种群模型来检验管理入侵的不同方法。我们首先对该模型进行了分析检验,以显示强Allee效应的存在,然后我们对模型进行了数值探索,以测试不同管理策略的有效性。正如预期的那样,较低的Allee阈值、更大的承载能力和更大比例的分散器有助于入侵。然而,这些影响是相互作用的,并受人口增长率的调节。以舞毒蛾为例,我们证明了不同入侵管理策略的有效性取决于环境,结合互补的方法可能更可取,而且首选策略可能在地理上有所不同。具体来说,我们发现限制迁徙的方法在连续栖息地和高Allee阈值的地区更有效,而在栖息地高度破碎化的地区,包括交配中断和提高Allee阈值在内的方法更有效。
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引用次数: 3
A two-species stage-structured model for West Nile virus transmission 西尼罗河病毒传播的两种群阶段结构模型
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1302828
T. Beebe, S. Robertson
We develop a host–vector model of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission that incorporates multiple avian host species as well as host stage-structure (juvenile and adult stages), allowing for both species-specific and stage-specific biting rates of vectors on hosts. We use this ordinary differential equation model to explore WNV transmission dynamics that occur between vectors and multiple structured host populations as a result of heterogeneous biting rates on species and/or life stages. Our analysis shows that increased exposure of juvenile hosts generally results in larger outbreaks of WNV infectious vectors when compared to differential host species exposure. We also find that increased juvenile exposure is an important mechanism for determining the effect of species diversity on the disease risk of a community.
我们开发了一个西尼罗河病毒(WNV)传播的宿主-媒介模型,该模型结合了多种鸟类宿主物种以及宿主阶段结构(幼年和成年阶段),考虑到媒介对宿主的物种特异性和阶段特异性叮咬率。我们使用这个常微分方程模型来探索由于物种和/或生命阶段的不同叮咬率而在载体和多结构宿主群体之间发生的WNV传播动力学。我们的分析表明,与不同的宿主物种暴露相比,幼年宿主暴露的增加通常会导致更大规模的WNV感染媒介爆发。我们还发现,幼年暴露量的增加是决定物种多样性对群落疾病风险影响的重要机制。
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引用次数: 2
Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a two species malaria model with time delays 具有时滞的两种群疟疾模型的稳定性和Hopf分支
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1296383
E. Agyingi, T. Wiandt, M. Ngwa
We present a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of two species of malaria with time lags. The model is equally applicable to two strains of a malaria species. The reproduction numbers of the two species are obtained and used as threshold parameters to study the stability and bifurcations of the equilibria of the model. We find that the model has a disease free equilibrium, which is a global attractor when the reproduction number of each species is less than one. Further, we observe that the non-disease free equilibrium of the model contains stability switches and Hopf bifurcations take place when the delays exceed the critical values.
我们提出了两种具有时滞的疟疾传播动力学的数学模型。该模型同样适用于一种疟疾的两种菌株。得到了这两个种群的繁殖数,并将其作为阈值参数来研究模型平衡点的稳定性和分岔。我们发现,当每个物种的繁殖数量小于1时,该模型具有无疾病平衡,即全局吸引子。此外,我们观察到该模型的非疾病平衡包含稳定性开关,并且当延迟超过临界值时发生Hopf分岔。
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引用次数: 3
Keys to successful mentoring of undergraduate research teams with an emphasis in applied mathematics research 成功指导以应用数学研究为重点的本科生研究团队的关键
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1411843
H. Highlander
Abstract Independent of institution size and faculty research expectations, a growing number of colleges and universities encourage their undergraduates to engage in some form of research experience. To meet the demand of students seeking such experiences and to ensure these experiences are of high quality, it is imperative to have qualified mentors. While senior faculty rely on years of experience in mentoring research projects, professors stepping into these undergraduate mentoring roles at the graduate student or junior faculty level may not be as equipped to handle the potential hurdles unique to working with teams of undergraduates. This article is aimed at such an audience. Although much of the article is relevant to mentoring projects in any area of mathematics, some comments and suggestions are directed more to working with students in applied mathematics. This article includes advice gleaned from the National Science Foundation-sponsored Center for Undergraduate Research in Mathematics (CURM) faculty workshop in conjunction with personal experiences from the author, a CURM mini-grant recipient. The primary goals of the paper are to answer questions one might have when starting a project with undergraduates and to provide the reader with concrete steps to follow in planning and successfully completing such a project.
摘要与机构规模和教师的研究期望无关,越来越多的学院和大学鼓励本科生从事某种形式的研究经验。为了满足寻求此类体验的学生的需求,并确保这些体验具有高质量,必须有合格的导师。虽然高级教师依赖于多年指导研究项目的经验,但在研究生或初级教师级别担任本科生指导角色的教授可能没有能力应对与本科生团队合作所特有的潜在障碍。这篇文章就是针对这样的读者。尽管这篇文章的大部分内容都与数学领域的辅导项目有关,但一些评论和建议更多地针对应用数学领域的学生。这篇文章包括从国家科学基金会赞助的数学本科生研究中心(CURM)教师研讨会上收集的建议,以及作者(CURM小型资助接受者)的个人经历。这篇论文的主要目标是回答本科生在开始一个项目时可能遇到的问题,并为读者提供规划和成功完成该项目的具体步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Conditions for endemicity: qualitative population dynamics in a long-running outbreak of Ebola virus disease 流行条件:埃博拉病毒病长期暴发中的定性种群动态
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1379890
Olivia Brozek, M. Glomski
Abstract Ebola virus disease (EVD) struck West Africa in 2013–2016 in an epidemic of unprecedented scope, with over 28000 cases and 11000 fatalities in the affected region. The protracted duration of the outbreak – more than two-and-one-half years of active transmission – raises questions about the persistence of EVD. In this brief paper, we qualitatively examine conditions supporting long-running EVD epidemics via a susceptible – exposed – infectious – recovered – deceased-infectious differential equations model that incorporates births and non disease-related deaths. We define an ‘effective epidemiological population’ to include contagious individuals recently deceased from the disease. Under a constant effective epidemiological population condition, we consider the basic reproductive number and use Lyapunov function arguments to establish conditions in the parameter space supporting an exchange of stability from the disease-free equilibrium to an endemic equilibrium.
2013-2016年,西非爆发了规模空前的埃博拉病毒病(EVD),疫区共有28000多例病例,11000人死亡。疫情持续时间长——活跃传播时间超过两年半——引发了关于埃博拉病毒病持续性的问题。在这篇简短的论文中,我们通过包含出生和非疾病相关死亡的易感-暴露-感染-恢复-死亡-感染微分方程模型定性地检查支持长期EVD流行的条件。我们将“有效流行病学人群”定义为包括最近死于该疾病的传染性个体。在一个恒定的有效流行病学种群条件下,我们考虑基本繁殖数,并利用Lyapunov函数参数在参数空间中建立了支持从无病平衡到地方性平衡的稳定性交换的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Predator–prey dynamics with intraspecific competition and an Allee effect in the predator population 捕食者种群中具有种内竞争和Allee效应的捕食者-猎物动态
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1282843
Erin N. Bodine, A. Yust
The study of the Allee effect on the stability of equilibria of predator-prey systems is of recent interest to mathematicians, ecologists, and conservationists. Many theoretical models that include the Allee effect result in an unstable coexistence equilibrium. However, empirical evidence suggests that predator–prey systems exhibiting density-dependent growth at small population densities still can achieve coexistence in the long term. We review an often cited model that incorporates an Allee effect in the predator population resulting in an unstable coexistence equilibrium, and then present a novel extension to this model which includes a term modeling intraspecific competition within the predator population. The additional term penalizes predator population growth for large predator to prey density ratios. We use equilibrium analysis to define the regions in the parameter space where the coexistence equilibrium is stable, and show that there exist biologically reasonable parameter sets which produce a stable coexistence equilibrium for our model.
Allee效应对捕食-被捕食系统平衡稳定性的研究最近引起了数学家、生态学家和自然保护主义者的兴趣。包括Allee效应在内的许多理论模型导致了不稳定的共存平衡。然而,经验证据表明,在小种群密度下表现出密度依赖性增长的捕食者-猎物系统仍然可以长期共存。我们回顾了一个经常被引用的模型,该模型在捕食者种群中引入了Allee效应,导致了不稳定的共存平衡,然后对该模型进行了新的扩展,其中包括一个术语,用于建模捕食者种群内的种内竞争。附加项惩罚捕食者种群的增长,因为捕食者与猎物的密度比很大。我们使用平衡分析来定义参数空间中共存平衡稳定的区域,并证明存在生物学上合理的参数集,这些参数集为我们的模型产生了稳定的共存平衡。
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引用次数: 15
Immuno-kinetics of immunotherapy: dosing with DCs 免疫疗法的免疫动力学:DC给药
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1289129
Emek Köse, S. Moore, Chinenye Ofodile, A. Radunskaya, Ellen R. Swanson, Elizabeth Zollinger
Therapeutic vaccines play a large role in the cast of immunotherapies that are now an essential component in most cancer treatment regimes. The complexity of the immune response and the ability of the tumour to mount a counter-offensive to this response have made it difficult to predict who will respond to what treatments, and for clinicians to optimise treatment strategies for individual patients. In this paper, we present a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of the adaptive response to an autologous whole-cell cancer vaccine, without some of the complexities of previous models that incorporate delays. Model simulations are compared to published experimental and clinical data, and used to discuss possible improvements to vaccine design.
治疗性疫苗在免疫疗法中发挥着重要作用,免疫疗法目前是大多数癌症治疗方案的重要组成部分。免疫反应的复杂性和肿瘤对这种反应发起反攻的能力使得很难预测谁会对什么治疗有反应,临床医生也很难优化个别患者的治疗策略。在这篇论文中,我们提出了一个数学模型,该模型捕捉了对自体癌症全细胞疫苗的适应性反应的动态,而没有之前模型中包含延迟的一些复杂性。将模型模拟与已发表的实验和临床数据进行比较,并用于讨论疫苗设计的可能改进。
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引用次数: 10
A compartmental model for capillary supply 毛细管供应的室室模型
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1316528
Liang Sun, Junkoo Park, A. Barrera
Abstract Oxygen diffusion for time-dependent diffusion and consumption can be measured for small tissue regions containing a single capillary. An all or none model is reflected by myocardial infarction where necrotic regions are clearly demarcated. However if there is more than one capillary, the problem becomes very difficult; since the boundary of the ischemic area is no longer circular and is not known a priori. A geometric compartmental model using the Fick’s method will be presented for multi-capillary supply. Our method is to approach the steady state by a transient process, which paradoxically may be more efficient than the steady-state problem.
氧扩散的时间依赖的扩散和消耗可以测量小组织区域包含一个单一的毛细管。心肌梗死的坏死区域划分清楚,反映了全或无模型。然而,如果有一个以上的毛细管,问题就变得非常困难;因为缺血区域的边界不再是圆形的,也不是先验的。使用菲克方法的几何区室模型将用于多毛细管供应。我们的方法是通过一个瞬态过程来接近稳态,矛盾的是,这可能比稳态问题更有效。
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引用次数: 0
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Letters in Biomathematics
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