首页 > 最新文献

Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal最新文献

英文 中文
Profit-Driven Experimental Design 利润驱动的实验设计
Pub Date : 2021-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3896229
Yuhao Wang, Weiming Zhu
From intense competition to the recent pandemic, companies currently face considerable volatility in the business environment. For companies that design experiments to identify parameters of interest and make subsequent policy decisions based on these parameters, the cost of such experimentation has become increasingly comparable to the economic gains obtained, as the insights offered by an experiment can be short-lived due to changing market conditions. In this paper, we develop a general framework to quantify the total expected profit from both the experimental and postexperimental stages given an experimental strategy. The proposed framework is constructed using the asymptotic properties of the underlying parameter estimates as a channel to connect the profits from the two stages. Exploiting this framework, we calculate the difference in the total expected profits between any two experimental strategies, as well as the lower and upper bounds. Furthermore, we derive the actual and the bounds of the optimal sample size that maximizes the total expected profit. The profit and sample size bounds are independent of the ground-truth parameter value and can be calculated before conducting experiments to support experimental planning. In particular, our results demonstrate that when the postexperiment profit can be expressed as the sum of profits from N homogeneous units, the optimal sample size is on the order of O(sqrt{N}). Finally, we showcase how our framework can be applied to different business setups, such as the demand-learning newsvendor problem and the pricing problem.
从激烈的竞争到最近的大流行,企业目前面临着相当大的商业环境波动。对于那些设计实验以确定感兴趣的参数并根据这些参数做出后续政策决策的公司来说,这种实验的成本越来越能与获得的经济收益相媲美,因为由于市场条件的变化,实验提供的见解可能是短暂的。在本文中,我们开发了一个通用框架来量化实验和实验后阶段的总预期利润。所提出的框架是利用基础参数估计的渐近性质作为连接两个阶段的利润的通道来构建的。利用这个框架,我们计算了任何两个实验策略之间的总预期利润的差异,以及下限和上限。此外,我们推导出实际的最优样本大小的范围和总预期利润最大化。利润和样本量界限与真值参数值无关,可以在进行实验之前计算出来,以支持实验计划。特别是,我们的结果表明,当实验后利润可以表示为N个齐次单位的利润之和时,最优样本量约为O(sqrt{N})阶。最后,我们展示了如何将我们的框架应用于不同的业务设置,例如需求学习的报贩问题和定价问题。
{"title":"Profit-Driven Experimental Design","authors":"Yuhao Wang, Weiming Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896229","url":null,"abstract":"From intense competition to the recent pandemic, companies currently face considerable volatility in the business environment. For companies that design experiments to identify parameters of interest and make subsequent policy decisions based on these parameters, the cost of such experimentation has become increasingly comparable to the economic gains obtained, as the insights offered by an experiment can be short-lived due to changing market conditions. In this paper, we develop a general framework to quantify the total expected profit from both the experimental and postexperimental stages given an experimental strategy. The proposed framework is constructed using the asymptotic properties of the underlying parameter estimates as a channel to connect the profits from the two stages. Exploiting this framework, we calculate the difference in the total expected profits between any two experimental strategies, as well as the lower and upper bounds. Furthermore, we derive the actual and the bounds of the optimal sample size that maximizes the total expected profit. The profit and sample size bounds are independent of the ground-truth parameter value and can be calculated before conducting experiments to support experimental planning. In particular, our results demonstrate that when the postexperiment profit can be expressed as the sum of profits from N homogeneous units, the optimal sample size is on the order of O(sqrt{N}). Finally, we showcase how our framework can be applied to different business setups, such as the demand-learning newsvendor problem and the pricing problem.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117320921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poverty Vulnerability: The Role of Poverty Lines in the Post-Pandemic Era 《贫穷脆弱性:大流行病后时代贫穷线的作用》
Pub Date : 2021-06-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3903508
Jaime Lara, Fabian Mendez Ramos
This paper introduces the results of a novel methodology to estimate country-specific macro-poverty vulnerability. The new poverty vulnerability risk measure considers historical information, statistical significances, poverty lines, and forecasting horizons to proxy exposure to poverty. The application uses aggregated household data and macroeconomic information of 154 countries comprising 97% of the world population. Using the absolute poverty line of US$ 1.90, a COVID-19 pandemic counterfactual shows that, by 2021, the global expected number of people vulnerable to income impoverishment increased from 205 to 245 million people. Likewise, the poverty level rises from a baseline of 632 to a COVID-19 median counterfactual of 748 million people in 2021. Alternative poverty lines studied in the literature also indicate negative changes in macro-vulnerability performances and poverty levels across 2021–2030 © 2021, Economics Bulletin.All Rights Reserved.
本文介绍了一种估算具体国家宏观贫困脆弱性的新方法的结果。新的贫困脆弱性风险指标考虑了历史信息、统计显著性、贫困线和预测范围,以代表贫困风险。该应用程序使用154个国家的综合家庭数据和宏观经济信息,占世界人口的97%。以1.90美元的绝对贫困线计算,2019冠状病毒病大流行的反事实表明,到2021年,全球易陷入收入贫困的人数预计将从2.05亿增加到2.45亿。同样,到2021年,贫困水平将从632人的基线上升到7.48亿人。文献中研究的替代贫困线也表明宏观脆弱性表现和贫困水平在2021 - 2030年间呈负变化©2021,Economics Bulletin。版权所有。
{"title":"Poverty Vulnerability: The Role of Poverty Lines in the Post-Pandemic Era","authors":"Jaime Lara, Fabian Mendez Ramos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3903508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3903508","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces the results of a novel methodology to estimate country-specific macro-poverty vulnerability. The new poverty vulnerability risk measure considers historical information, statistical significances, poverty lines, and forecasting horizons to proxy exposure to poverty. The application uses aggregated household data and macroeconomic information of 154 countries comprising 97% of the world population. Using the absolute poverty line of US$ 1.90, a COVID-19 pandemic counterfactual shows that, by 2021, the global expected number of people vulnerable to income impoverishment increased from 205 to 245 million people. Likewise, the poverty level rises from a baseline of 632 to a COVID-19 median counterfactual of 748 million people in 2021. Alternative poverty lines studied in the literature also indicate negative changes in macro-vulnerability performances and poverty levels across 2021–2030 © 2021, Economics Bulletin.All Rights Reserved.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128610280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Mean-Field Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: A Decentralized Network Approach 平均场多智能体强化学习:一种分散的网络方法
Pub Date : 2021-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3900139
Haotian Gu, Xin Guo, Xiaoli Wei, Renyuan Xu
One of the challenges for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is designing efficient learning algorithms for a large system in which each agent has only limited or partial information of the entire system. In this system, it is desirable to learn policies of a decentralized type. A recent and promising paradigm to analyze such decentralized MARL is to take network structures into consideration. While exciting progress has been made to analyze decentralized MARL with the network of agents, often found in social networks and team video games, little is known theoretically for decentralized MARL with the network of states, frequently used for modeling self-driving vehicles, ride-sharing, and data and traffic routing. This paper proposes a framework called localized training and decentralized execution to study MARL with network of states, with homogeneous (a.k.a. mean-field type) agents. Localized training means that agents only need to collect local information in their neighboring states during the training phase; decentralized execution implies that, after the training stage, agents can execute the learned decentralized policies, which only requires knowledge of the agents' current states. The key idea is to utilize the homogeneity of agents and regroup them according to their states, thus the formulation of a networked Markov decision process with teams of agents, enabling the update of the Q-function in a localized fashion. In order to design an efficient and scalable reinforcement learning algorithm under such a framework, we adopt the actor-critic approach with over-parameterized neural networks, and establish the convergence and sample complexity for our algorithm, shown to be scalable with respect to the size of both agents and states.
多智能体强化学习(MARL)面临的挑战之一是为大型系统设计高效的学习算法,其中每个智能体只有整个系统的有限或部分信息。在这个系统中,我们希望学习分散类型的策略。分析这种分散的MARL的最新和有前途的范例是考虑网络结构。虽然在使用代理网络分析分散的MARL方面取得了令人兴奋的进展,通常在社交网络和团队视频游戏中发现,但对于使用状态网络的分散MARL在理论上知之甚少,通常用于建模自动驾驶汽车,乘车共享,数据和交通路由。本文提出了一个局部训练和分散执行的框架来研究具有状态网络的MARL,该网络具有同构(即平均场类型)的智能体。局部化训练是指智能体在训练阶段只需要收集邻近状态的局部信息;分散执行意味着,在训练阶段之后,智能体可以执行学习到的分散策略,这只需要了解智能体的当前状态。关键思想是利用智能体的同质性,并根据其状态进行重组,从而形成一个由智能体组成的网络马尔可夫决策过程,使q函数能够以局部方式更新。为了在这样的框架下设计一种高效且可扩展的强化学习算法,我们采用了过度参数化神经网络的actor- critical方法,并建立了算法的收敛性和样本复杂度,表明算法在智能体和状态的大小方面都是可扩展的。
{"title":"Mean-Field Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: A Decentralized Network Approach","authors":"Haotian Gu, Xin Guo, Xiaoli Wei, Renyuan Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3900139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3900139","url":null,"abstract":"One of the challenges for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is designing efficient learning algorithms for a large system in which each agent has only limited or partial information of the entire system. In this system, it is desirable to learn policies of a decentralized type. A recent and promising paradigm to analyze such decentralized MARL is to take network structures into consideration. While exciting progress has been made to analyze decentralized MARL with the network of agents, often found in social networks and team video games, little is known theoretically for decentralized MARL with the network of states, frequently used for modeling self-driving vehicles, ride-sharing, and data and traffic routing. \u0000This paper proposes a framework called localized training and decentralized execution to study MARL with network of states, with homogeneous (a.k.a. mean-field type) agents. Localized training means that agents only need to collect local information in their neighboring states during the training phase; decentralized execution implies that, after the training stage, agents can execute the learned decentralized policies, which only requires knowledge of the agents' current states. The key idea is to utilize the homogeneity of agents and regroup them according to their states, thus the formulation of a networked Markov decision process with teams of agents, enabling the update of the Q-function in a localized fashion. In order to design an efficient and scalable reinforcement learning algorithm under such a framework, we adopt the actor-critic approach with over-parameterized neural networks, and establish the convergence and sample complexity for our algorithm, shown to be scalable with respect to the size of both agents and states.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133324699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 21
Engineering Social Learning: Information Design of Time-Locked Sales Campaigns for Online Platforms 工程社会学习:在线平台限时销售活动的信息设计
Pub Date : 2021-06-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3493744
Can Küçükgül, Ö. Özer, Shouqiang Wang
Many online platforms offer time-locked sales campaigns, whereby products are sold at fixed prices for prespecified lengths of time. Platforms often display some information about previous customers’ purchase decisions during campaigns. Using a dynamic Bayesian persuasion framework, we study how a revenue-maximizing platform should optimize its information policy for such a setting. We reformulate the platform’s problem equivalently by reducing the dimensionality of its message space and proprietary history. Specifically, three messages suffice: a neutral recommendation that induces a customer to make her purchase decision according to her private signal about the product and a positive (respectively (resp.), negative) recommendation that induces her to purchase (resp., not purchase) by ignoring her signal. The platform’s proprietary history can be represented by the net purchase position, a single-dimensional summary statistic that computes the cumulative difference between purchases and nonpurchases made by customers having received the neutral recommendation. Subsequently, we establish structural properties of the optimal policy and uncover the platform’s fundamental trade-off: long-term information (and revenue) generation versus short-term revenue extraction. Further, we propose and optimize over a class of heuristic policies. The optimal heuristic policy provides only neutral recommendations up to a cutoff customer and provides only positive or negative recommendations afterward, with the recommendation being positive if and only if the net purchase position after the cutoff customer exceeds a threshold. This policy is easy to implement and numerically shown to perform well. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of our methodology and the robustness of our findings by relaxing some informational assumptions. This paper was accepted by Gabriel Weintraub, revenue management and market analytics.
许多在线平台提供限时销售活动,即产品在预定的时间内以固定价格销售。平台通常会在活动期间显示一些关于之前客户购买决策的信息。利用动态贝叶斯说服框架,我们研究了收益最大化平台在这种情况下如何优化其信息策略。我们通过减少消息空间和专有历史的维度来重新表述平台的问题。具体来说,三个信息就足够了:一个中性的推荐,诱导顾客根据她对产品的私人信号做出购买决定;一个积极的(分别(resp.),消极的)推荐,诱导她购买(resp.)。(不是购买)通过忽略她的信号。该平台的专有历史可以用净购买头寸来表示,净购买头寸是一种单维汇总统计数据,用于计算收到中性推荐的客户购买与未购买之间的累积差异。随后,我们建立了最优策略的结构属性,并揭示了平台的基本权衡:长期信息(和收入)产生与短期收入提取。进一步,我们提出并优化了一类启发式策略。最优启发式策略仅在截止客户之前提供中性推荐,之后仅提供正面或负面推荐,当且仅当截止客户之后的净购买头寸超过阈值时,推荐为正面。该策略易于实现,并且在数值上表现良好。最后,我们通过放松一些信息假设来证明我们方法的一般性和我们发现的稳健性。本文被收益管理和市场分析专业的Gabriel Weintraub接受。
{"title":"Engineering Social Learning: Information Design of Time-Locked Sales Campaigns for Online Platforms","authors":"Can Küçükgül, Ö. Özer, Shouqiang Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3493744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3493744","url":null,"abstract":"Many online platforms offer time-locked sales campaigns, whereby products are sold at fixed prices for prespecified lengths of time. Platforms often display some information about previous customers’ purchase decisions during campaigns. Using a dynamic Bayesian persuasion framework, we study how a revenue-maximizing platform should optimize its information policy for such a setting. We reformulate the platform’s problem equivalently by reducing the dimensionality of its message space and proprietary history. Specifically, three messages suffice: a neutral recommendation that induces a customer to make her purchase decision according to her private signal about the product and a positive (respectively (resp.), negative) recommendation that induces her to purchase (resp., not purchase) by ignoring her signal. The platform’s proprietary history can be represented by the net purchase position, a single-dimensional summary statistic that computes the cumulative difference between purchases and nonpurchases made by customers having received the neutral recommendation. Subsequently, we establish structural properties of the optimal policy and uncover the platform’s fundamental trade-off: long-term information (and revenue) generation versus short-term revenue extraction. Further, we propose and optimize over a class of heuristic policies. The optimal heuristic policy provides only neutral recommendations up to a cutoff customer and provides only positive or negative recommendations afterward, with the recommendation being positive if and only if the net purchase position after the cutoff customer exceeds a threshold. This policy is easy to implement and numerically shown to perform well. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of our methodology and the robustness of our findings by relaxing some informational assumptions. This paper was accepted by Gabriel Weintraub, revenue management and market analytics.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128825295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Analytical Solution to A Discrete-Time Model for Dynamic Learning and Decision-Making 动态学习与决策的离散时间模型的解析解
Pub Date : 2021-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3847049
Hao Zhang
Problems concerning dynamic learning and decision making are difficult to solve analytically. We study an infinite-horizon discrete-time model with a constant unknown state that may take two possible values. As a special partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), this model unifies several types of learning-and-doing problems such as sequential hypothesis testing, dynamic pricing with demand learning, and multiarmed bandits. We adopt a relatively new solution framework from the POMDP literature based on the backward construction of the efficient frontier(s) of continuation-value vectors. This framework accommodates different optimality criteria simultaneously. In the infinite-horizon setting, with the aid of a set of signal quality indices, the extreme points on the efficient frontier can be linked through a set of difference equations and solved analytically. The solution carries structural properties analogous to those obtained under continuous-time models, and it provides a useful tool for making new discoveries through discrete-time models. This paper was accepted by Baris Ata, stochastic models and simulation.
关于动态学习和决策的问题很难用分析的方法来解决。我们研究了具有恒定未知状态的无限视界离散时间模型,该模型可以取两个可能的值。作为一种特殊的部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP),该模型统一了序列假设检验、动态定价与需求学习、多武装强盗等几种类型的“学习与做”问题。基于连续值向量有效边界的逆向构造,我们采用了一种相对较新的解框架。该框架同时容纳不同的最优性标准。在无限视界环境下,借助于一组信号质量指标,可以通过一组差分方程将有效边界上的极值点联系起来并解析求解。该解具有与连续时间模型相似的结构性质,并为通过离散时间模型进行新发现提供了有用的工具。论文被Baris Ata、随机模型和仿真所接受。
{"title":"Analytical Solution to A Discrete-Time Model for Dynamic Learning and Decision-Making","authors":"Hao Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3847049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3847049","url":null,"abstract":"Problems concerning dynamic learning and decision making are difficult to solve analytically. We study an infinite-horizon discrete-time model with a constant unknown state that may take two possible values. As a special partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), this model unifies several types of learning-and-doing problems such as sequential hypothesis testing, dynamic pricing with demand learning, and multiarmed bandits. We adopt a relatively new solution framework from the POMDP literature based on the backward construction of the efficient frontier(s) of continuation-value vectors. This framework accommodates different optimality criteria simultaneously. In the infinite-horizon setting, with the aid of a set of signal quality indices, the extreme points on the efficient frontier can be linked through a set of difference equations and solved analytically. The solution carries structural properties analogous to those obtained under continuous-time models, and it provides a useful tool for making new discoveries through discrete-time models. This paper was accepted by Baris Ata, stochastic models and simulation.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116173717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Solution of Stochastic Time-Dependent First Order Delay Differential Equations Using Block Simpson’s Methods 用Block Simpson方法求解随机时变一阶时滞微分方程
Pub Date : 2021-04-25 DOI: 10.24247/IJMCARJUN20211
B. Osu, C. Chibuisi, G. Egbe, V. C. Egenkonye
discrete schemes was worked-out in block forms to solve some stochastic time-dependent first order delay differential equations. It was observed that the scheme for step number k = 4 performed better and faster in terms of accuracy than the schemes for step number k = 3 and 2 respectively after the comparisons with their exact solutions and other existing methods
针对一类随机时变一阶时滞微分方程的离散格式,给出了分块格式。通过与步数k = 4和步数k = 3的精确解和其他现有方法的比较,发现步数k = 4的方案在精度上优于步数k = 3和步数k = 2的方案
{"title":"The Solution of Stochastic Time-Dependent First Order Delay Differential Equations Using Block Simpson’s Methods","authors":"B. Osu, C. Chibuisi, G. Egbe, V. C. Egenkonye","doi":"10.24247/IJMCARJUN20211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24247/IJMCARJUN20211","url":null,"abstract":"discrete schemes was worked-out in block forms to solve some stochastic time-dependent first order delay differential equations. It was observed that the scheme for step number k = 4 performed better and faster in terms of accuracy than the schemes for step number k = 3 and 2 respectively after the comparisons with their exact solutions and other existing methods","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"113 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121100814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chain Error as a function of Seasonal Variation 链误差作为季节变化的函数
Pub Date : 2021-03-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3800882
Yrjö Vartia, Antti Suoperä, K. Nieminen, Hannele Markkanen
In this study, we examine statistically the dependence between Seasonal Variation of consumed values and the ChainErrors of corresponding excellent indices in different subgroups Ak.

First, cyclic seasonal variation of values is calculated by simple regression analysis and the ChainError is calculated by the Multi Period Identity Test. Secondly, Quadratic Means QM of these two variables (or dimensions) are used in our analysis. Question is: Does the largeness of the seasonal components in the value series, as measured by its Quadratic Mean (QM) per month during the observation period, reflect itself in the largeness of ChainErrors (CE) derived by Multi Period Identity Test?

The Quadratic Means of cyclic seasonal variation of values and ChainError (difference between base and chain strategies) both show variation found in typical average months. The dependence between these two quadratic means is shown in the paper by simple regression analysis. We show that there is a very strong statistically significant dependency between Quadratic Means of Chain Errors and Quadratic Means of values in the seasonal index. Our main empirical findings are following: Do not use any construction strategy that is somehow connected with the chain strategy.

Our test data is a scanner data from one of Finnish retail trade chains including monthly information on unit prices, quantities and values from January 2014 to December 2018, and has more than 20 000 homogeneous commodities that are comparable in quality.
在本研究中,我们从统计上检验了消费值的季节变化与不同亚组中相应优良指标的连锁误差之间的相关性。首先,通过简单回归分析计算各值的周期季节性变化,并通过多周期同一性检验计算链误差。其次,在我们的分析中使用了这两个变量(或维度)的二次均值QM。问题是:观测期内每月二次均值(QM)测量的值序列中季节分量的大小是否反映在多期同一性检验得出的链误差(CE)的大小上?数值周期季节变化的二次均值和ChainError(基策略与链策略之差)均显示出典型平均月份的变化。本文通过简单的回归分析说明了这两个二次均值之间的相关性。我们表明,在季节性指数中,链误差的二次均值与值的二次均值之间存在很强的统计上显著的依赖性。我们的主要实证发现如下:不要使用任何与连锁策略有某种联系的建设策略。我们的测试数据是来自芬兰一家零售贸易连锁店的扫描数据,包括2014年1月至2018年12月的单价、数量和价值月度信息,并有超过20,000种质量可比的同质商品。
{"title":"Chain Error as a function of Seasonal Variation","authors":"Yrjö Vartia, Antti Suoperä, K. Nieminen, Hannele Markkanen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3800882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3800882","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we examine statistically the dependence between Seasonal Variation of consumed values and the ChainErrors of corresponding excellent indices in different subgroups Ak. <br><br>First, cyclic seasonal variation of values is calculated by simple regression analysis and the ChainError is calculated by the Multi Period Identity Test. Secondly, Quadratic Means QM of these two variables (or dimensions) are used in our analysis. Question is: Does the largeness of the seasonal components in the value series, as measured by its Quadratic Mean (QM) per month during the observation period, reflect itself in the largeness of ChainErrors (CE) derived by Multi Period Identity Test? <br><br>The Quadratic Means of cyclic seasonal variation of values and ChainError (difference between base and chain strategies) both show variation found in typical average months. The dependence between these two quadratic means is shown in the paper by simple regression analysis. We show that there is a very strong statistically significant dependency between Quadratic Means of Chain Errors and Quadratic Means of values in the seasonal index. Our main empirical findings are following: Do not use any construction strategy that is somehow connected with the chain strategy. <br><br>Our test data is a scanner data from one of Finnish retail trade chains including monthly information on unit prices, quantities and values from January 2014 to December 2018, and has more than 20 000 homogeneous commodities that are comparable in quality.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134069239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Novel Performance Measure for Machine Learning Classification 一种新的机器学习分类性能度量方法
Pub Date : 2021-02-28 DOI: 10.5121/IJMIT.2021.13101
Mingxing Gong
Machine learning models have been widely used in numerous classification problems and performance measures play a critical role in machine learning model development, selection, and evaluation. This paper covers a comprehensive overview of performance measures in machine learning classification. Besides, we proposed a framework to construct a novel evaluation metric that is based on the voting results of three performance measures, each of which has strengths and limitations. The new metric can be proved better than accuracy in terms of consistency and discriminancy.
机器学习模型已广泛应用于许多分类问题,性能度量在机器学习模型的开发、选择和评估中起着至关重要的作用。本文全面概述了机器学习分类中的性能度量。此外,我们提出了一个框架来构建一个新的评估指标,该指标基于三个绩效指标的投票结果,每个绩效指标都有优点和局限性。新度量在一致性和鉴别性方面优于精度。
{"title":"A Novel Performance Measure for Machine Learning Classification","authors":"Mingxing Gong","doi":"10.5121/IJMIT.2021.13101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5121/IJMIT.2021.13101","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning models have been widely used in numerous classification problems and performance measures play a critical role in machine learning model development, selection, and evaluation. This paper covers a comprehensive overview of performance measures in machine learning classification. Besides, we proposed a framework to construct a novel evaluation metric that is based on the voting results of three performance measures, each of which has strengths and limitations. The new metric can be proved better than accuracy in terms of consistency and discriminancy.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131848644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
Bounds and Heuristics for Multi-Product Personalized Pricing 多产品个性化定价的边界与启发式
Pub Date : 2021-02-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3778409
G. Gallego, Gerardo Berbeglia
We present tight bounds and heuristics for personalized, multi-product pricing problems. Under mild conditions we show that offering a non-personalize price in the direction of a positive vector (factor) has a tight profit guarantee relative to optimal personalized pricing. An optimal non-personalized price is the choice factor, when known. Using a factor vector with equal components results in uniform pricing and has exceedingly mild sufficient conditions for the bound to hold. A robust factor is presented that achieves the best possible performance guarantee. As an application, our model yields a tight lower-bound on the performance of linear pricing relative to personalized non-linear pricing, and suggests effective non-linear price heuristics relative to personalized solutions. Additionally, our model provides guarantees for simple strategies such as bundle-size pricing and component-pricing with respect to personalized mixed bundling policies. Heuristics to cluster customer types are also developed with the goal of improving performance by allowing each cluster to price along its own factor. Numerical results are presented for a variety of demand models, factors and clustering heuristics. In our experiments, economically motivated factors coupled with machine learning clustering heuristics performed best.
我们提出了严格的边界和启发式的个性化,多产品定价问题。在温和条件下,我们证明了相对于最优个性化定价,在正向量(因子)方向上提供非个性化价格具有严格的利润保证。最优的非个性化价格是已知的选择因素。使用具有相等分量的因子向量可以得到统一定价,并且具有非常温和的约束条件。提出了实现最佳性能保证的鲁棒因子。作为一个应用,我们的模型产生了相对于个性化非线性定价的线性定价性能的严格下限,并提出了相对于个性化解决方案的有效非线性价格启发式。此外,我们的模型还为一些简单的策略提供了保证,例如针对个性化混合捆绑策略的捆绑包大小定价和组件定价。对客户类型进行聚类的启发式方法也被开发出来,目的是通过允许每个聚类按照自己的因素定价来提高性能。给出了各种需求模型、因素和聚类启发式的数值结果。在我们的实验中,经济动机因素与机器学习聚类启发式相结合表现最好。
{"title":"Bounds and Heuristics for Multi-Product Personalized Pricing","authors":"G. Gallego, Gerardo Berbeglia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3778409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3778409","url":null,"abstract":"We present tight bounds and heuristics for personalized, multi-product pricing problems. Under mild conditions we show that offering a non-personalize price in the direction of a positive vector (factor) has a tight profit guarantee relative to optimal personalized pricing. An optimal non-personalized price is the choice factor, when known. Using a factor vector with equal components results in uniform pricing and has exceedingly mild sufficient conditions for the bound to hold. A robust factor is presented that achieves the best possible performance guarantee. As an application, our model yields a tight lower-bound on the performance of linear pricing relative to personalized non-linear pricing, and suggests effective non-linear price heuristics relative to personalized solutions. Additionally, our model provides guarantees for simple strategies such as bundle-size pricing and component-pricing with respect to personalized mixed bundling policies. Heuristics to cluster customer types are also developed with the goal of improving performance by allowing each cluster to price along its own factor. Numerical results are presented for a variety of demand models, factors and clustering heuristics. In our experiments, economically motivated factors coupled with machine learning clustering heuristics performed best.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131112413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
On the Similarity of Plane Pulsed Magnetic Fields Continued From Different Coordinate Axes 论不同坐标轴连续平面脉冲磁场的相似性
Pub Date : 2020-10-26 DOI: 10.20998/2074-272x.2020.5.07
V. M. Mikhailov
Purpose. The purpose of this work is formulation of similarity conditions for plane magnetic fields at a sharp skin-effect continued in non-conducting and non-magnetic medium from different axes bounding plane surfaces of conductors. Methodology. Classic formulation of Cauchy problem for magnetic vector potential Laplace equations, mathematic physics methods and basics similarity theory are used. Two problems are considered: the problem of initial field continuation from one axis and the problem of similar field continuation form other axis on which magnetic flux density or electrical field strength in unknown. Results. Necessary and sufficient similarity conditions of plane pulsed or high-frequency magnetic fields continued from different axes of rectangular coordinates are formulated. For the given odd and even magnetic flux density distributions on axis of initial field corresponding the distributions on axis and solution of continued similar field problem are obtained. Originality. It is proved that for similarity of examined fields the proportion of corresponding vector field projections represented by dimensionless numbers in similar points of axes is necessary and sufficient.
目的。本工作的目的是在导体的不同轴向边界平面表面上,在非导电和非磁性介质中持续的尖锐集肤效应平面磁场的相似条件的公式。方法。用经典的柯西问题表述磁矢量势拉普拉斯方程,运用数学物理方法和基本的相似理论。考虑了两个问题:从一个轴开始的初始场延拓问题和从另一个未知的磁通密度或电场强度的轴开始的类似场延拓问题。结果。给出了从直角坐标系不同轴向连续的平面脉冲或高频磁场的充分必要相似条件。对于给定的奇偶磁通密度在初始场轴上的分布,得到了相应的轴上分布和连续相似场问题的解。创意。证明了为了检验场的相似性,在轴线的相似点上用无因次数表示的相应向量场投影的比例是充分必要的。
{"title":"On the Similarity of Plane Pulsed Magnetic Fields Continued From Different Coordinate Axes","authors":"V. M. Mikhailov","doi":"10.20998/2074-272x.2020.5.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20998/2074-272x.2020.5.07","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose. The purpose of this work is formulation of similarity conditions for plane magnetic fields at a sharp skin-effect continued in non-conducting and non-magnetic medium from different axes bounding plane surfaces of conductors. Methodology. Classic formulation of Cauchy problem for magnetic vector potential Laplace equations, mathematic physics methods and basics similarity theory are used. Two problems are considered: the problem of initial field continuation from one axis and the problem of similar field continuation form other axis on which magnetic flux density or electrical field strength in unknown. Results. Necessary and sufficient similarity conditions of plane pulsed or high-frequency magnetic fields continued from different axes of rectangular coordinates are formulated. For the given odd and even magnetic flux density distributions on axis of initial field corresponding the distributions on axis and solution of continued similar field problem are obtained. Originality. It is proved that for similarity of examined fields the proportion of corresponding vector field projections represented by dimensionless numbers in similar points of axes is necessary and sufficient.","PeriodicalId":376757,"journal":{"name":"Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133937542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Decision-Making in Operations Research eJournal
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1