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Nudged into Better Portfolios and Lower Risk: Robo-Advice and Savings Decisions 推动更好的投资组合和更低的风险:机器人建议和储蓄决策
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3927860
Konstantin Bräuer
Mutual fund and ETF savings plans (SPs) are becoming an increasingly important part of retail investor portfolios and many investors now adopt robo-advisors to obtain guidance on SP choices. Using data from a large online bank that introduced a robo-advising tool, I explore how robo-advice changes investors’ SP choices and document three main results. First, default options improve robo-advice users’ fund choices towards lower-cost and more diversified funds. Second, many investors – also those who previously held all-equity portfolios – adhere to the default asset allocation that is associated with a 50% equity exposure, although they could construct riskier SP portfolios through the robo-advisor. Third, I document considerable heterogeneity in longer-term adherence to robo-advisor recommendations. First-time SP users are more inert and stick to the robo-advisor’s proposed asset allocation while experienced SP users quickly readjust their equity exposure away from the robo-advisor’s recommendation. My results emphasize the power of defaults in all-digital robo-advisory services and highlight how they can improve fund choices while at the same time push investors into unsuitable asset allocations.
共同基金和ETF储蓄计划(SP)正成为散户投资者投资组合中越来越重要的一部分,许多投资者现在采用机器人顾问来获得选择SP的指导。我利用一家大型网上银行推出的机器人咨询工具的数据,探讨了机器人咨询如何改变投资者的标普选择,并记录了三个主要结果。首先,默认选项改善了机器人咨询用户对低成本、更多元化基金的选择。其次,许多投资者——包括那些以前全部持有股票投资组合的投资者——坚持默认的资产配置,即50%的股票敞口,尽管他们可以通过机器人顾问构建风险更高的标准普尔投资组合。第三,我记录了长期遵守机器人顾问建议的相当大的异质性。首次使用标准普尔的用户比较惰性,会坚持机器人顾问建议的资产配置,而经验丰富的标准普尔用户则会迅速调整他们的股票敞口,远离机器人顾问的建议。我的研究结果强调了全数字机器人咨询服务中违约的力量,并强调了它们如何在改善基金选择的同时,推动投资者进行不合适的资产配置。
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引用次数: 0
On Survivor Stocks in the S&P 500 Stock Index 关于标准普尔500指数中的幸存者股票
Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3862318
Klaus Grobys, J. Kolari
This paper investigates the performance and characteristics of survivor stocks in the S&P 500 index. Using both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons, survivor stocks outperformed this market index by a considerable margin. Relative to other S&P 500 index companies, survivor stocks tend to be small-value stocks that exhibit high profitability and invest conservatively. Surprisingly, survivor stocks tend to be loser stocks with negative exposure to the momentum factor. Further analyses show that the volatility of the survivor stocks portfolio is less exposed to tail risks and responds less to shocks in the innovation process.
本文研究了标准普尔500指数中幸存股票的表现和特征。通过样本内和样本外比较,幸存股票的表现明显优于该市场指数。相对于其他标普500指数成份股,幸存的股票往往是盈利能力高、投资保守的小价值股。令人惊讶的是,幸存的股票往往是受动量因素负面影响的输家股票。进一步分析表明,存活股票组合的波动性受尾部风险的影响较小,对创新过程中的冲击响应较小。
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引用次数: 0
Retos y recomendaciones regulatorias respecto de Fintech 3.0 para países Latinoamericanos (Challenges and Regulatory Guidelines Regarding Fintech 3.0 for Latin American Countries) 关于金融科技3.0 para países的监管建议(拉丁美洲国家关于金融科技3.0的挑战和监管指南)
Pub Date : 2021-03-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3889750
Daniel A Monroy
Spanish abstract: El desarrollo de las tecnologías financieras puede dividirse en tres etapas, la tercera, llamada Fintech 3.0 se refiere a la incursión de empresas emergentes (startups) que ingresan a competir con las grandes empresas financieras tradicionales. Por supuesto, este fenómeno tecnológico global impone nuevos retos respecto de la regulación y la supervisión de los mercados financieros. Sin embargo, para el caso de los países de Latinoamérica, lograr un mayor desarrollo de Fintech 3.0 supone una serie de desafíos especiales por los obstáculos que impone la alta concentración de los mercados financieros de la región y la manera cómo está diseñada la regulación en cada país. En este orden, el artículo sugiere algunas recomendaciones regulatorias que faciliten un mayor desarrollo y penetración de Fintech 3.0. en la región. English abstract: The development of financial technologies can be divided into three stages, the third, called Fintech 3.0, refers to the incursion of emerging companies that are entering to compete with large traditional financial companies. Of course, this global technological phenomenon imposes new challenges with respect to the regulation and the supervision of financial markets. However, in the case of Latin American countries, achieving greater development of Fintech 3.0 involves a series of special challenges due to the obstacles imposed by the high concentration of the region's financial markets and the way in which regulation is designed in each country. In this order, the article suggests some regulatory recommendations to facilitate greater development and penetration of Fintech 3.0. in the region.
金融技术的发展可以分为三个阶段,第三个阶段称为Fintech 3.0,指的是新兴公司(初创公司)进入与大型传统金融公司竞争的入侵。当然,这种全球技术现象给金融市场的监管和监督带来了新的挑战。然而,对于拉丁美洲国家来说,实现金融科技3.0的进一步发展意味着一系列特殊的挑战,这是由于该地区金融市场高度集中所造成的障碍,以及每个国家的监管设计方式。按照这个顺序,本文提出了一些监管建议,以促进金融科技3.0的进一步发展和渗透。在这个地区。金融技术的发展可以分为三个阶段,第三阶段称为金融科技3.0,指的是新兴公司进入与大型传统金融公司竞争的入侵。当然,这一全球技术现象并没有在金融市场的监管和监督方面带来新的挑战。然而,就拉丁美洲国家而言,实现金融科技3.0的进一步发展涉及一系列特殊挑战,这是由于该地区金融市场高度集中所造成的障碍以及每个国家的监管方式。为此,本文提出了一些监管建议,以促进金融科技3.0的进一步发展和渗透。在这个地区。
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引用次数: 0
Ergodicity Economics and the High Beta Conundrum 遍历性经济学和高贝塔难题
Pub Date : 2021-02-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3783852
Gustavo Harckbart
Using Ergodicity Economics this paper shows that terminal wealth maximizing portfolios have betas that are substantially higher than the market portfolio (beta = 1). Simulations indicate that uncertainty about the future distribution of returns and the high cost of over-betting could be limiting factors to implementing such high beta portfolios. Another possibility is that investors do care about risk and are trying to maximize some form of risk adjusted growth rate.
本文使用遍经性经济学表明,终端财富最大化投资组合的贝塔系数远高于市场投资组合(贝塔系数= 1)。模拟表明,未来收益分配的不确定性和过度投注的高成本可能是实施这种高贝塔系数投资组合的限制因素。另一种可能性是,投资者确实关心风险,并试图最大化某种形式的风险调整后的增长率。
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引用次数: 0
What Explains Price Momentum and 52-Week High Momentum When They Really Work? 价格动量和52周高动量真正起作用的原因是什么?
Pub Date : 2021-02-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3716786
Pedro Barroso, Haoxu Wang
After long being one of the main puzzles in asset pricing, momentum has ironically become a case of observational equivalence. It can now be explained both by factors proxying for mispricing and by the investment CAPM. On top of this, q-factor theory also explains the related 52-week-high anomaly. We note that all these recent tests are unconditional exercises while the bulk of momentum profits are predictable and occur after periods of low-volatility. Comparing asset pricing models conditionally, when the strategies actually work, we find the unconditional fit is misleading. The models fit well most of the time but not when the profits are produced. The investment CAPM implies time-varying loadings that are inconsistent with the data. We proxy underreaction with earnings announcement returns and analyst forecast errors and find that it markedly decreases with volatility. This supports an underreaction channel as closer to the heart of both anomalies.
长期以来,动量一直是资产定价的主要难题之一,但具有讽刺意味的是,动量已成为观察等效的一个例子。现在,它可以用定价错误的代理因素和投资CAPM来解释。除此之外,q因子理论也解释了相关的52周高异常。我们注意到,所有这些最近的测试都是无条件的练习,而大部分动量利润是可预测的,并且发生在低波动期之后。有条件地比较资产定价模型,当策略实际起作用时,我们发现无条件拟合具有误导性。这些模型在大多数情况下都适用,但在产生利润的时候就不适用了。投资CAPM隐含与数据不一致的时变负荷。我们用收益公告回报和分析师预测误差来代替反应不足,发现它随波动性显著降低。这支持反应不足通道更接近两个异常的中心。
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引用次数: 3
Inform or Endorse? Twitter and the Post Initial Coin Offering Token Performance 通知还是支持?Twitter和首次代币发行后的代币表现
Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3777350
Andrea Moro, TheVinh Truong
Our research explores the link between tokens post Initial Coin Offering (ICO) market performance in terms of returns, volumes and volatility, and the role of social media activity (namely Twitter) as information disseminator vis-a-vis project endorser. We look at a sample of token negotiated for at least two year using data from HitBTC and Twitter. Results show that twitter has mainly an endorsement role: the activity in terms of likes, replies and retweets (endorsement of the project) is associated to higher returns, higher average volume traded per day and lower return’s volatility; the activity linked to original tweets and tweets with quotes, weblinks, images and videos (information dissemination) has a very much marginal effect on post ICO tokens’ market performance. The results obtained are consistent when a different trading platform (Huobi Global) is used and robust to alternative estimation technique.
我们的研究探讨了首次代币发行(ICO)后的代币在回报、数量和波动性方面的市场表现,以及社交媒体活动(即Twitter)作为信息传播者与项目代言人之间的联系。我们使用HitBTC和Twitter的数据研究了至少两年的代币谈判样本。结果表明,twitter主要起到背书作用:点赞、回复和转发(项目背书)的活跃度与较高的收益、较高的日均交易量和较低的收益波动率相关;与原始推文和带有报价、网页链接、图片和视频的推文(信息传播)相关联的活动对后ICO代币的市场表现影响非常小。当使用不同的交易平台(火币全球)时,得到的结果是一致的,并且对替代估计技术具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 1
Par Munis -- Sub-Par Performance 市政债券——表现欠佳
Pub Date : 2021-01-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3774232
A. Kalotay, Guy Davidson
It is well recognized that institutional municipal portfolio managers prefer premium bonds to those selling near par. We show that such aversion to par bonds is justified, because they are expected to underperform comparable premium or discount bonds in the near term. The extent of the underperformance depends on the shape of the yield curve, and it is positively correlated with the level of expected interest rate volatility.

The underperformance is due to tax considerations. When a municipal bond is purchased below par, the resulting gain is taxed at maturity, and the price is depressed by the present value of this tax. Due to this tax effect, the interest rate sensitivity of discount munis is amplified. Munis selling near par are also negatively convex; the potential decline due to higher interest rates exceeds the increase due to commensurately lower rates. The underperformance of near-par munis relative to those selling at a high premium or at a deep discount is due to the resulting combination of extended duration and negative convexity.

The changing value of tax liabilities creates a unique challenge in determining interest rate sensitivity and expected return, which conventional analytics fail to recognize. The tax-neutral analytics used in this paper incorporate the value of future tax costs, and provide an accurate method for predicting municipal bond price changes and investment returns.
众所周知,机构市政投资组合经理更喜欢溢价债券,而不是那些接近票面价值的债券。我们表明,这种对票面价值债券的厌恶是合理的,因为预计它们在短期内的表现将低于可比的溢价或折扣债券。表现不佳的程度取决于收益率曲线的形状,并与预期利率波动水平呈正相关。业绩不佳是由于税收方面的考虑。当以低于票面价值的价格购买市政债券时,由此产生的收益在到期时要征税,而价格则受到这一税收的现值的抑制。由于这种税收效应,贴现市政债券的利率敏感性被放大。在票面价附近出售的市政债券也是负凸的;高利率带来的潜在下降超过了相应低利率带来的增长。相对于溢价较高或折价较大的市政债券,接近票面价值的市政债券表现不佳,是由于期限延长和负凸性共同作用的结果。纳税负债价值的变化在确定利率敏感性和预期回报方面带来了独特的挑战,这是传统分析无法认识到的。本文使用的税收中性分析纳入了未来税收成本的价值,并为预测市政债券价格变化和投资回报提供了准确的方法。
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引用次数: 3
E-Tailing with FinTech: Instant Return Credit 电子零售与金融科技:即时返回信贷
Pub Date : 2020-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3756627
Rong Li, Duo Shi
Problem Definition: Instant return credit (in short, return-credit) is a new FinTech service that offers a store credit immediately upon a return claim, without requiring the return to be received. Improving consumers’ budget, this helps convert online returns into new sales, but it also results in costly fake returns from consumers with low credit-rating. We study whether or not and how retailers should adopt return-credit and its implications on their optimal pricing strategy and profit and consumers’ welfare. Academic/Practice Relevance: This return-credit service is recently launched by a startup FinTech company, Returnly, and adopted by many retailers with impressive results. This paper is the first to provide some necessary guidance for this new practice. Methodology: We build a stylized economic model to capture the basic dynamics and tradeoff of return-credit. For a retailer selling two horizontally differentiated products, we study and compare three different cases: no, unconditional and conditional (on consumer-type) return-credit. For each case, we first optimize the consumers’ sequential decisions involving orders and return and then optimize the retailer’s strategy on pricing and return-credit. Results: The retailer should adopt the return-credit service; when adopt, she should make the return-credit conditional if no additional cost required, regardless of the product category. She should also prepare to switch to an asymmetric pricing, although the two products are symmetric (in cost and consumer valuation). This adoption, however, may hurt all consumers for low-cost products due to the retailer’s elevated pricing power by return-credit. But, making the return- credit conditional on consumer-type will almost always reward high credit-rating consumers, but penalize low credit-rating consumers. Managerial Implications: Our results provide retailers with an initial guidance and insights on how to implement return-credit and its major implications on the retailer (significant strategy change and what product-category to start implement), and consumers (both types of return-credit may hurt, but the conditional one is fairer).
问题定义:即时退货积分(简称退货积分)是一项新的金融科技服务,在退货申请后立即提供商店积分,而不需要收到退货。改善消费者的预算,这有助于将在线退货转化为新的销售,但也会导致信用评级较低的消费者产生昂贵的虚假退货。本文研究了零售商是否应该以及如何采用退货信用,以及退货信用对零售商最优定价策略、利润和消费者福利的影响。学术/实践相关性:这项退款信用服务最近由一家金融科技初创公司rereturn推出,并被许多零售商采用,取得了令人印象深刻的效果。本文首先为这一新的实践提供了一些必要的指导。方法:我们建立了一个程式化的经济模型来捕捉基本动态和回报-信贷的权衡。对于销售两种水平差异化产品的零售商,我们研究并比较了三种不同的情况:无、无条件和有条件(基于消费者类型)退货信用。对于每种情况,我们首先优化消费者的顺序决策,包括订单和退货,然后优化零售商的定价和退货信用策略。结果:零售商应采用退换货服务;当采用时,无论产品类别如何,如果不需要额外的费用,她都应该提出有条件的退货信用。她还应该准备转向不对称定价,尽管这两种产品是对称的(在成本和消费者估值方面)。然而,这种采用可能会损害所有低成本产品的消费者,因为零售商通过退货信用提高了定价能力。但是,将信用回报以消费者类型为条件,几乎总是会奖励高信用等级的消费者,而惩罚低信用等级的消费者。管理启示:我们的结果为零售商提供了关于如何实施退货信用及其对零售商(重大战略变化和开始实施的产品类别)和消费者(两种类型的退货信用都可能造成伤害,但有条件的退货信用更公平)的初步指导和见解。
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引用次数: 2
Tailor-Made Asset Allocation: A Robust Framework to Implement Active Views 定制资产配置:实现活动视图的健壮框架
Pub Date : 2020-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3753412
Tarek Issaoui, Romain Perchet, Olivier Retière, François Soupé, Chenyang Yin
Asset managers publish tactical asset allocation views regularly. The implementation of such (usually qualitative) views, in portfolios is often over-simplistic. We propose a robust framework to industrialize the construction of tailored portfolios consistent with the views. First, an unconstrained unique tactical portfolio is created by relating the conviction in each view to the allocation of risk budget to the assets underlying the view. Second, the tailored portfolios with investor-specific constraints and targets are constructed using robust portfolio optimization based on implied active returns derived from the unique unconstrained tactical portfolio. The implied returns are derived from reverse optimization using the same robust approach. Robust optimization is the core engine for the industrialization process. It produces portfolios consistent with the views while complying with constraints without requiring human intervention. Finally, a factor-based risk model endows the framework with transparency, by allowing for comparison of risk-factor exposures in portfolios with those in the original views’ exposures.
资产管理公司定期发布策略性资产配置视图。在投资组合中实现这样的(通常是定性的)视图常常过于简单化。我们提出了一个健壮的框架,以工业化定制的投资组合的建设与观点一致。首先,通过将每个观点中的信念与风险预算分配到该观点所支持的资产相关联,创建了一个不受约束的独特战术投资组合。其次,基于独特的无约束战术投资组合的隐含主动收益,利用稳健的投资组合优化构建了具有投资者特定约束和目标的定制投资组合。隐含收益是使用相同的鲁棒方法从反向优化中得到的。鲁棒优化是工业化进程的核心引擎。它生成与视图一致的投资组合,同时遵守约束,而不需要人工干预。最后,基于因素的风险模型通过允许将投资组合中的风险因素暴露与原始视图中的风险暴露进行比较,赋予了框架透明度。
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引用次数: 1
Dynamical Internal Rate of Return for the Investment Project 投资项目动态内部收益率
Pub Date : 2020-12-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3742401
A. Zhevnyak
A new indicator of profitableness (DIRR) of the investor and recipient of the investment project is proposed, which is a generalization and development of the concept of internal rate of return (IRR). It is formed in the form of the sum of the cost of the participant's capital and the project's own profitableness, which is determined by the ratio of NPV to the value of the aggregate discounted loan debts of the investor and the recipient accumulated in the project. In projects with multiple IRR value the indicator DIRR is described by a continuous function of discount rate and smoothes the gaps in the real operating profitableness indicator. For projects with a single (simple or multiple) value of IRR, there is a complete coincidence of DIRR with the real operating profitableness of the participant. An example of building a DIRR in a project with three simple and one double IRR values is considered.
提出了一种新的投资项目投资方和接受方的盈利能力指标(DIRR),它是内部收益率(IRR)概念的推广和发展。它的形式是参与者的资本成本和项目自身的盈利能力之和,由NPV与在项目中积累的投资者和受贷者的贷款债务贴现总额的比值决定。在具有多个IRR值的项目中,DIRR指标用贴现率的连续函数来描述,平滑了实际经营盈利能力指标的差距。对于具有单一(单一或多个)IRR值的项目,DIRR与参与者的实际经营盈利能力完全一致。本文考虑了一个在项目中使用三个简单IRR值和一个双IRR值构建DIRR的示例。
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引用次数: 0
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Investments eJournal
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