Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x201909620
Alexandre Aronne, L. Grossi, Aureliano A. Bressan
ABSTRACT The purpose of this work is to present the Weighted Forward Search (FSW) method for the detection of outliers in asset pricing data. This new estimator, which is based on an algorithm that downweights the most anomalous observations of the dataset, is tested using both simulated and empirical asset pricing data. The impact of outliers on the estimation of asset pricing models is assessed under different scenarios, and the results are evaluated with associated statistical tests based on this new approach. Our proposal generates an alternative procedure for robust estimation of portfolio betas, allowing for the comparison between concurrent asset pricing models. The algorithm, which is both efficient and robust to outliers, is used to provide robust estimates of the models’ parameters in a comparison with traditional econometric estimation methods usually used in the literature. In particular, the precision of the alphas is highly increased when the Forward Search (FS) method is used. We use Monte Carlo simulations, and also the well-known dataset of equity factor returns provided by Prof. Kenneth French, consisting of the 25 Fama-French portfolios on the United States of America equity market using single and three-factor models, on monthly and annual basis. Our results indicate that the marginal rejection of the Fama-French three-factor model is influenced by the presence of outliers in the portfolios, when using monthly returns. In annual data, the use of robust methods increases the rejection level of null alphas in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor model, with more efficient estimates in the absence of outliers and consistent alphas when outliers are present.
{"title":"Identifying outliers in asset pricing data with a new weighted forward search estimator","authors":"Alexandre Aronne, L. Grossi, Aureliano A. Bressan","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x201909620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201909620","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The purpose of this work is to present the Weighted Forward Search (FSW) method for the detection of outliers in asset pricing data. This new estimator, which is based on an algorithm that downweights the most anomalous observations of the dataset, is tested using both simulated and empirical asset pricing data. The impact of outliers on the estimation of asset pricing models is assessed under different scenarios, and the results are evaluated with associated statistical tests based on this new approach. Our proposal generates an alternative procedure for robust estimation of portfolio betas, allowing for the comparison between concurrent asset pricing models. The algorithm, which is both efficient and robust to outliers, is used to provide robust estimates of the models’ parameters in a comparison with traditional econometric estimation methods usually used in the literature. In particular, the precision of the alphas is highly increased when the Forward Search (FS) method is used. We use Monte Carlo simulations, and also the well-known dataset of equity factor returns provided by Prof. Kenneth French, consisting of the 25 Fama-French portfolios on the United States of America equity market using single and three-factor models, on monthly and annual basis. Our results indicate that the marginal rejection of the Fama-French three-factor model is influenced by the presence of outliers in the portfolios, when using monthly returns. In annual data, the use of robust methods increases the rejection level of null alphas in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor model, with more efficient estimates in the absence of outliers and consistent alphas when outliers are present.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67199454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x202010460
I. Felipe, Bruno Ferreira
ABSTRACT Given that equity crowdfunding has grown significantly in Brazil and that this market has been frequently sought by startups as an alternative to scarce credit, this study investigated the elements that determine the success of their financing campaigns. The article fills the gap related to the absence of studies analyzing the probability and time of success of startup financing. In Brazil, the research on this is still in its infancy and there has been little discussion regarding what can determine the success of this type of financing. The findings presented here provide managerial contributions for different stakeholders, ranging from platform managers and entrepreneurs to the ordinary citizen, who ultimately acts as an inducer of change in society, without the need for financial intermediaries. The discussion around the elements that influence the success of startup financing has revealed that the characteristics of the venture profile have been able to determine the success of the financing. This information applied to the dynamic of resource allocation in this market can generate more financial efficiency for private agents as an investment performance parameter and, for public agents, as an input for monitoring. The logistic regression with marginal effects and a dummy for time fixed effects were used. The time of success analysis was carried out via survival models. The sample covers 99 startup financing campaigns from 2014 to 2017. The study identified that the financial goal, the venture category, advisor participation, the campaign duration, and the type of equity offered to the investor positively affect both the probability and speed of success of the startup financing. Its contribution lies in the use of these findings to formulate strategies geared toward estimating success, which enable an appropriate allocation of financial resources.
{"title":"Determinants of the success of equity crowdfunding campaigns","authors":"I. Felipe, Bruno Ferreira","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x202010460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202010460","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Given that equity crowdfunding has grown significantly in Brazil and that this market has been frequently sought by startups as an alternative to scarce credit, this study investigated the elements that determine the success of their financing campaigns. The article fills the gap related to the absence of studies analyzing the probability and time of success of startup financing. In Brazil, the research on this is still in its infancy and there has been little discussion regarding what can determine the success of this type of financing. The findings presented here provide managerial contributions for different stakeholders, ranging from platform managers and entrepreneurs to the ordinary citizen, who ultimately acts as an inducer of change in society, without the need for financial intermediaries. The discussion around the elements that influence the success of startup financing has revealed that the characteristics of the venture profile have been able to determine the success of the financing. This information applied to the dynamic of resource allocation in this market can generate more financial efficiency for private agents as an investment performance parameter and, for public agents, as an input for monitoring. The logistic regression with marginal effects and a dummy for time fixed effects were used. The time of success analysis was carried out via survival models. The sample covers 99 startup financing campaigns from 2014 to 2017. The study identified that the financial goal, the venture category, advisor participation, the campaign duration, and the type of equity offered to the investor positively affect both the probability and speed of success of the startup financing. Its contribution lies in the use of these findings to formulate strategies geared toward estimating success, which enable an appropriate allocation of financial resources.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67199837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x201908100
Vanessa Rodrigues dos Santos Cardoso, Marília Cordeiro Pinheiro
Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent recession and of macroeconomic variables over the indebtedness in Brazilian industry sectors. The gap derives from the preference for investigating the reaction of capital structure according to economic sectors. However, it has to be considered that industry sectors react differently to variations in the economic context, since they have different optimal points of capital structure composition. The relevance of the chosen topic lies in carrying out a sectorial analysis of the effect of recession and of macroeconomic variables on capital structure composition, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of being based on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of debt given fluctuations in a set of macroeconomic variables. Standing out among the main contributions of this article are the analysis of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian companies given the occurrence of recession and variations in the macroeconomy, identifying sectors that are most exposed to modifying their capital structure due to these factors. Six research hypotheses were formulated and tested using multiple linear regression, with two-stage fixed effects based on panel data collected from 211 companies, classified into six sectors, with data relating to the first quarter of 2010 up to the first quarter of 2018. The results revealed that the recent Brazilian recession was relevant for the capital structure of the sectors studied, with inflation only being significant for the health sector. The level of indebtedness of the basic materials sector was shown to be the most dependent on economic fluctuations and that of telephony and utilities was shown to be the least dependent. In addition, it was verified that the company-specific variables have greater relevance in determining capital structure compared to the macroeconomic ones.
{"title":"The influence of recession and macroeconomic variables on sectorial capital structure","authors":"Vanessa Rodrigues dos Santos Cardoso, Marília Cordeiro Pinheiro","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x201908100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201908100","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent recession and of macroeconomic variables over the indebtedness in Brazilian industry sectors. The gap derives from the preference for investigating the reaction of capital structure according to economic sectors. However, it has to be considered that industry sectors react differently to variations in the economic context, since they have different optimal points of capital structure composition. The relevance of the chosen topic lies in carrying out a sectorial analysis of the effect of recession and of macroeconomic variables on capital structure composition, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of being based on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of debt given fluctuations in a set of macroeconomic variables. Standing out among the main contributions of this article are the analysis of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian companies given the occurrence of recession and variations in the macroeconomy, identifying sectors that are most exposed to modifying their capital structure due to these factors. Six research hypotheses were formulated and tested using multiple linear regression, with two-stage fixed effects based on panel data collected from 211 companies, classified into six sectors, with data relating to the first quarter of 2010 up to the first quarter of 2018. The results revealed that the recent Brazilian recession was relevant for the capital structure of the sectors studied, with inflation only being significant for the health sector. The level of indebtedness of the basic materials sector was shown to be the most dependent on economic fluctuations and that of telephony and utilities was shown to be the least dependent. In addition, it was verified that the company-specific variables have greater relevance in determining capital structure compared to the macroeconomic ones.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67199112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x201909530
Cláudio Ernani Mendes Da Silva, M. Machado
ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to analyze the characteristics and determinants of commonality in liquidity in the Brazilian stock market. Since the internationalization of the Brazilian stock market (Bolsa, Brasil, Balcão - B3), the flow of foreign investment in Brazil has increased over the years, except in times of crisis. Thus, the present study argues that, in the Brazilian stock market, commonality in liquidity is partly determined by foreign investor trading. Despite the benefits obtained from foreign resources in the Brazilian stock market, it is important to analyze the effect of this flow of foreign investment into the Brazilian stock market. This paper contributes to the current literature by providing evidence for commonality in liquidity in the Brazilian stock market and by showing its stronger effect in periods of market decline. Therefore, investors pay greater attention to the risk of commonality in their portfolios when executing orders and to their trading timing due to the increase in transaction costs of the stocks most sensitive to commonality in liquidity. The study sample consisted of a set of companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange from January 2007 through December 2017. To analyze commonality in liquidity, we used the model proposed by Karolyi, Lee, and Djik (2012) and by Qian, Tam, and Zhang (2014). To measure the influence of foreign investors on the Brazilian stock market, we used three measures based on Gonçalves and Eid (2016). The results showed that commonality occurs in the Brazilian stock market and that it peaks during international financial crises, as well as indicated that commonality might be higher in times of crisis due to capital constraint. In addition, the results showed that foreign investor participation partly determined commonality.
摘要本研究的目的是分析巴西股票市场流动性共性的特征和决定因素。自巴西股票市场国际化(Bolsa, Brasil, balc o - B3)以来，除了危机时期外，巴西的外国投资流量逐年增加。因此，本研究认为，在巴西股票市场，流动性的共性部分取决于外国投资者的交易。尽管巴西股票市场从外国资源中获得了好处，但分析外国投资流入巴西股票市场的影响是很重要的。本文通过为巴西股票市场流动性的共性提供证据，并通过显示其在市场下跌期间的更强效应，为当前的文献做出了贡献。因此，由于流动性共性最敏感的股票的交易成本增加，投资者在执行指令时更加关注其投资组合中的共性风险和交易时机。研究样本包括2007年1月至2017年12月在巴西证券交易所上市的一系列公司。为了分析流动性的共性，我们使用Karolyi, Lee, and Djik(2012)和Qian, Tam, and Zhang(2014)提出的模型。为了衡量外国投资者对巴西股票市场的影响，我们使用了基于gonalves和Eid(2016)的三个指标。结果表明，巴西股票市场存在共性，并在国际金融危机期间达到峰值，同时表明由于资本约束，危机时期的共性可能更高。此外，结果表明，外国投资者的参与在一定程度上决定了共性。
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Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x201909840
William Clem Soares, C. Campani
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the performance of Free Benefit Generating Plans (Plano Gerador de Benefício Livre - PGBL) and Free Benefit Generating Life (Vida Gerador de Benefícios Livres - VGBL) funds in the Brazilian market. This paper is unique when it comes to segregate funds managed by pure insurance companies (PICs) from those managed by large retail banks. We also discuss the impact of characteristics such as administration fee and fund size in the fund performance. The academic literature does not consider the differentiation between funds characteristics neither the type of institution that manages them. Furthermore, the available studies on this market are usually simple and, for example, do not use multifactor models to measure risk adjusted performances. The PGBL and VGBL funds performances are object of great interest since their market grows sustainably and quickly. Funds underperforming the market should improve their strategies and decrease administration costs to deliver better net performances. This work aims at improving the market competition, such that retirement products remain attractive to investors. We develop two multifactor models representing the risk sources for each class of funds analyzed (conservative and aggressive funds). The performance is thus measured by Jensen's alpha, although we also analyze realized returns and volatilities. We also develop a multifactor model based on administrative fee and fund’s size to capture the PIC effect. Our results suggest that PGBL and VGBL funds managed by PICs perform better in terms of higher average returns with no extra volatility, when compared to similar funds managed by companies linked to large retain banks. We found that higher administrative fees do not payout and it might even destroy value in the case of funds that invest in stocks. Larger funds presented higher net returns with no extra volatility. Finally, the analysis confirmed, with statistical evidence, the higher net returns of funds controlled by PICs in two situations: (i) after controlling for administrative fee and size of the fund - from 0.8 to 1% more per year; and (ii) after controlling for market risk sources - from 0.64 to 1.18% more per year.
摘要本文分析了巴西市场上两种免费生福利计划基金(Plano Gerador de Benefício Livre - PGBL)和免费生福利终身基金(Vida Gerador de Benefícios Livres - VGBL)的表现。在将纯保险公司(PICs)管理的基金与大型零售银行管理的基金分开的问题上，这篇论文是独一无二的。我们还讨论了管理费和基金规模等特征对基金业绩的影响。学术文献没有考虑基金特征之间的差异，也没有考虑管理基金的机构类型。此外，对该市场的现有研究通常都很简单，例如，没有使用多因素模型来衡量风险调整后的绩效。PGBL和VGBL基金由于其市场持续快速增长，其表现备受关注。表现不佳的基金应改进策略，降低管理成本，以实现更好的净业绩。这项工作旨在改善市场竞争，使退休产品对投资者保持吸引力。我们为所分析的每一类基金(保守型基金和激进型基金)开发了两个多因素模型，代表风险来源。尽管我们也分析了已实现收益和波动率，但业绩是用詹森alpha来衡量的。我们还建立了一个基于行政费用和基金规模的多因素模型来捕捉PIC效应。我们的研究结果表明，与大型留存银行相关公司管理的类似基金相比，由私人投资公司管理的PGBL和VGBL基金在没有额外波动的情况下，在更高的平均回报方面表现更好。我们发现，对于投资股票的基金来说，更高的管理费用并不会带来回报，甚至可能会破坏其价值。规模较大的基金表现出更高的净回报，而且没有额外的波动。最后，该分析用统计证据证实，在两种情况下，由私人投资公司控制的基金的净回报率更高:(i)在控制了管理费和基金规模之后，每年高出0.8%至1%;(ii)在控制了市场风险源后，年增长率从0.64%提高到1.18%。
{"title":"Performance of retirement funds: An analysis focused on pure insurance companies,","authors":"William Clem Soares, C. Campani","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x201909840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201909840","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the performance of Free Benefit Generating Plans (Plano Gerador de Benefício Livre - PGBL) and Free Benefit Generating Life (Vida Gerador de Benefícios Livres - VGBL) funds in the Brazilian market. This paper is unique when it comes to segregate funds managed by pure insurance companies (PICs) from those managed by large retail banks. We also discuss the impact of characteristics such as administration fee and fund size in the fund performance. The academic literature does not consider the differentiation between funds characteristics neither the type of institution that manages them. Furthermore, the available studies on this market are usually simple and, for example, do not use multifactor models to measure risk adjusted performances. The PGBL and VGBL funds performances are object of great interest since their market grows sustainably and quickly. Funds underperforming the market should improve their strategies and decrease administration costs to deliver better net performances. This work aims at improving the market competition, such that retirement products remain attractive to investors. We develop two multifactor models representing the risk sources for each class of funds analyzed (conservative and aggressive funds). The performance is thus measured by Jensen's alpha, although we also analyze realized returns and volatilities. We also develop a multifactor model based on administrative fee and fund’s size to capture the PIC effect. Our results suggest that PGBL and VGBL funds managed by PICs perform better in terms of higher average returns with no extra volatility, when compared to similar funds managed by companies linked to large retain banks. We found that higher administrative fees do not payout and it might even destroy value in the case of funds that invest in stocks. Larger funds presented higher net returns with no extra volatility. Finally, the analysis confirmed, with statistical evidence, the higher net returns of funds controlled by PICs in two situations: (i) after controlling for administrative fee and size of the fund - from 0.8 to 1% more per year; and (ii) after controlling for market risk sources - from 0.64 to 1.18% more per year.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67199493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x201910000
D. Vancin, Guilherme Kirch
ABSTRACT The purpose of our research is to verify the impact of mandatory dividends on Brazilian publicly traded companies, focusing on both the value of cash holdings and the impact on corporate investment. Our work aims to reach the research objective making significant improvements over the previous works on the subject. First, we separate firms according to their dividend status. Second, in addition to investment regressions, we use the value of cash approach to test the impact of mandatory dividend on corporate financial decisions. Finally, our manual data collection makes it possible to allocate the dividend distributed to its reference period. Considering our context, where sources of financing are expensive and scarce, evidences obtained by the present research has great relevance. The law aims to protect the minority investor against the expropriation of resources. However, in dealing with all cases equally, legislation ends up harming companies that rely on these resources for their financing, thereby damaging their shareholders. This article brings new evidences, from an innovative approach, on factors affecting the availability of resources and its impact on the value of cash and on corporate investment in Brazil. We analyzed a sample of 1,654 dividend distributions from 2008 to 2015, using investment and firm value regressions. Our results indicate that companies paying just the minimum dividend have higher value attached to an extra unit of cash, corroborating our view that those companies will likely use these resources to fund future profitable investments. We also find that mandatory dividend has a negative impact on investment, but only for companies paying dividends above the minimum, contrary to our expectations. We argue that the marginal value of cash approach is a more effective way to test the impact of regulation on corporate financial decisions and this last evidence may be the result of endogeneity problems in investment regressions.
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Pub Date : 2020-11-27DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x202011500
Andson Braga Aguiar
This study aimed to examine when and how a pro-environmental value statement is effective at stimulating pro-environmental behavior. Specifically, it examines whether the effect of pro-environmental value statements on pro-environmental behavior depends on participation in goal setting and whether that effect is explained by goal commitment. Few recent empirical studies examine the behavioral effects of value statements, despite the potential of this informal control to stimulate appropriate behaviors. Also scarce are studies on management control examining the effects of different types of control on pro-environmental behavior. Pro-environmental behaviors are important in the business environment as they promote a reduction in pollutants and contribute to the effective design of environmental management systems and to environmental performance. Thus, it is important to identify how management control mechanisms can promote or inhibit this type of behavior. The contribution to the management control literature is to show in which context and through which process value statements can be an effective informal control. In addition, the practical implication is that decentralized organizations can benefit from the use of value statements as a control mechanism, providing they enable participation in goal setting. Participants were recruited via the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform and they had to decide about compliance with an environmental agreement in an experimental study. I manipulate the presence of a pro-environmental value statement and the participation in setting the profit goal. Research findings indicate that a pro-environmental value statement reduces commitment to the profit goal and thus increases environmental compliance, but only when the goal-setting is participative. When the goal-setting is imposed, a pro-environmental value statement does not affect commitment and environmental compliance. The main contribution is to indicate that decentralized organizations can stimulate appropriate behaviors by communicating prioritized values through a value statement when participation in goal setting is allowed.
{"title":"Is value statement an effective informal control for stimulating pro-environmental behaviors?","authors":"Andson Braga Aguiar","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x202011500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202011500","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to examine when and how a pro-environmental value statement is effective at stimulating pro-environmental behavior. Specifically, it examines whether the effect of pro-environmental value statements on pro-environmental behavior depends on participation in goal setting and whether that effect is explained by goal commitment. Few recent empirical studies examine the behavioral effects of value statements, despite the potential of this informal control to stimulate appropriate behaviors. Also scarce are studies on management control examining the effects of different types of control on pro-environmental behavior. Pro-environmental behaviors are important in the business environment as they promote a reduction in pollutants and contribute to the effective design of environmental management systems and to environmental performance. Thus, it is important to identify how management control mechanisms can promote or inhibit this type of behavior. The contribution to the management control literature is to show in which context and through which process value statements can be an effective informal control. In addition, the practical implication is that decentralized organizations can benefit from the use of value statements as a control mechanism, providing they enable participation in goal setting. Participants were recruited via the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform and they had to decide about compliance with an environmental agreement in an experimental study. I manipulate the presence of a pro-environmental value statement and the participation in setting the profit goal. Research findings indicate that a pro-environmental value statement reduces commitment to the profit goal and thus increases environmental compliance, but only when the goal-setting is participative. When the goal-setting is imposed, a pro-environmental value statement does not affect commitment and environmental compliance. The main contribution is to indicate that decentralized organizations can stimulate appropriate behaviors by communicating prioritized values through a value statement when participation in goal setting is allowed.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67200016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-27DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x202009890
Paloma Vanni Cainelli, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, Marcelo Cabús Klötzle
ABSTRACT In 2015, the Financial Economics Research Center (NEFIN) of the University of São Paulo proposed an implicit volatility index for the Brazilian stock market based on the daily prices of options for the Bovespa index (Ibovespa) and that measures the expected volatility of the Ibovespa in the next two months. The aim of this study is to determine whether this implicit volatility index can be considered an antecedent indicator of future returns of the Brazilian stock market, given that it represents the expected volatility of the Ibovespa two months into the future. This study contributes to the literature on the implicit volatility index for the Brazilian stock market, which has been scarce until now. This happens due to the recent establishment of the index and due to the fact that there is not an official one published by the B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3). Given the relationship found between the Brazilian implicit volatility index and the future returns of the Ibovespa, investors could anticipate instabilities in the Brazilian market by putting together strategies to protect their investment portfolios, as well as identifying opportunities to enter and exit the market. This research corroborates in disclosing the Brazilian implicit volatility index in order for it to become more widely used in academia and in the Brazilian financial market. The increase in studies on this index may also incentivize the launch of an official implicit volatility index by the B3. The relationship between the Brazilian implicit volatility index and the future returns of the Ibovespa is examined using least squares and quantile regressions. The implicit volatility index for the Brazilian stock market could help in predicting the future returns of the Ibovespa, especially for 20-, 60-, 120-, and 250-day future returns.
2015年，圣保罗大学金融经济研究中心(NEFIN)基于巴西期货交易所指数(Ibovespa)期权日价格，提出了巴西股市隐含波动率指数，用以衡量未来两个月该指数的预期波动率。本研究的目的是确定该隐含波动率指数是否可以被视为巴西股票市场未来回报的先行指标，因为它代表了未来两个月Ibovespa的预期波动率。本研究对巴西股市隐含波动率指数的研究有一定的贡献，这方面的研究文献目前还比较少。这种情况的发生是由于最近建立的指数，并且由于B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, balc (B3)没有发布官方指数。考虑到巴西隐含波动率指数与Ibovespa未来回报之间的关系，投资者可以通过整合策略来保护他们的投资组合，以及识别进入和退出市场的机会，来预测巴西市场的不稳定性。这项研究证实了巴西隐性波动率指数的披露是为了使其在学术界和巴西金融市场上得到更广泛的应用。对该指数研究的增加也可能激励B3推出官方隐含波动率指数。使用最小二乘法和分位数回归检验了巴西隐含波动率指数与Ibovespa未来收益之间的关系。巴西股票市场的隐含波动率指数可以帮助预测Ibovespa的未来收益，特别是20、60、120和250天的未来收益。
{"title":"Study on the relationship between the IVol-BR and the future returns of the Brazilian stock market,","authors":"Paloma Vanni Cainelli, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, Marcelo Cabús Klötzle","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x202009890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202009890","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In 2015, the Financial Economics Research Center (NEFIN) of the University of São Paulo proposed an implicit volatility index for the Brazilian stock market based on the daily prices of options for the Bovespa index (Ibovespa) and that measures the expected volatility of the Ibovespa in the next two months. The aim of this study is to determine whether this implicit volatility index can be considered an antecedent indicator of future returns of the Brazilian stock market, given that it represents the expected volatility of the Ibovespa two months into the future. This study contributes to the literature on the implicit volatility index for the Brazilian stock market, which has been scarce until now. This happens due to the recent establishment of the index and due to the fact that there is not an official one published by the B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3). Given the relationship found between the Brazilian implicit volatility index and the future returns of the Ibovespa, investors could anticipate instabilities in the Brazilian market by putting together strategies to protect their investment portfolios, as well as identifying opportunities to enter and exit the market. This research corroborates in disclosing the Brazilian implicit volatility index in order for it to become more widely used in academia and in the Brazilian financial market. The increase in studies on this index may also incentivize the launch of an official implicit volatility index by the B3. The relationship between the Brazilian implicit volatility index and the future returns of the Ibovespa is examined using least squares and quantile regressions. The implicit volatility index for the Brazilian stock market could help in predicting the future returns of the Ibovespa, especially for 20-, 60-, 120-, and 250-day future returns.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67200143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-09DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x202010800
Luis Paulo Guimarães dos Santos, A. Cerqueira, César Valentim de Oliveira Carvalho Júnior
ABSTRACT This article experimentally investigates the impact of recordkeeping over the level of direct reciprocity. The study of reciprocity has been barely explored in accounting. This article helps to fill that gap by presenting the first investigation that provides experimental evidence of the causal relationship between recordkeeping and direct reciprocity. Reciprocity is a key aspect in the human cooperation process, based on its implications for the evolution of economic and social systems. However, understanding the mechanisms that promote it has been an important scientific challenge in various areas, such as biology, anthropology, sociology, psychology, and economics. The results of this study have an impact on accounting teaching as they provide a scientific basis that helps to improve the understanding of the role of accounting, through its most basic function, and its consequences for human cooperation. Moreover, they have implications for accounting research by showing the viability of using economic experiments to investigate emerging themes in accounting. Finally, from a practical viewpoint, the results of the research signal to the formulators of accounting control mechanisms the importance of considering the crowding out effect of those instruments over motivation. The research adopted a single-factor between-subjects experimental design with a pre-test and post-test and a control group. The causal inference was made using difference-in-differences regression models for panel data together with a variety of additional tests, aiming to give robustness to the results. The research presents evidence of the crowding out effect of recordkeeping over direct reciprocity in a trust game. This finding is important because it provides an explanation of how accounting, through its most basic function, influences human cooperation.
{"title":"An experimental analysis of the effect of recordkeeping over direct reciprocity","authors":"Luis Paulo Guimarães dos Santos, A. Cerqueira, César Valentim de Oliveira Carvalho Júnior","doi":"10.1590/1808-057x202010800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202010800","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article experimentally investigates the impact of recordkeeping over the level of direct reciprocity. The study of reciprocity has been barely explored in accounting. This article helps to fill that gap by presenting the first investigation that provides experimental evidence of the causal relationship between recordkeeping and direct reciprocity. Reciprocity is a key aspect in the human cooperation process, based on its implications for the evolution of economic and social systems. However, understanding the mechanisms that promote it has been an important scientific challenge in various areas, such as biology, anthropology, sociology, psychology, and economics. The results of this study have an impact on accounting teaching as they provide a scientific basis that helps to improve the understanding of the role of accounting, through its most basic function, and its consequences for human cooperation. Moreover, they have implications for accounting research by showing the viability of using economic experiments to investigate emerging themes in accounting. Finally, from a practical viewpoint, the results of the research signal to the formulators of accounting control mechanisms the importance of considering the crowding out effect of those instruments over motivation. The research adopted a single-factor between-subjects experimental design with a pre-test and post-test and a control group. The causal inference was made using difference-in-differences regression models for panel data together with a variety of additional tests, aiming to give robustness to the results. The research presents evidence of the crowding out effect of recordkeeping over direct reciprocity in a trust game. This finding is important because it provides an explanation of how accounting, through its most basic function, influences human cooperation.","PeriodicalId":37984,"journal":{"name":"Revista Contabilidade e Financas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67199970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-12DOI: 10.1590/1808-057x201909110
Marta Cristina Pelucio-Grecco, Jacinto Pedro dos Santos Neto, Diego Constancio
Abstract This essay presents recommendations in regard to accounting for operations that involve bitcoins, in compliance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and analyzes their main tax aspects. There is no specific pronouncement on the part of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) or from the Brazilian Accounting Pronouncements Committee (CPC) regarding the accounting treatment to be applied in operations that use these currencies. Bitcoin is of interest to economists as a virtual currency with the potential to disrupt existing payment systems and even monetary systems. This essay offers a contribution for standard-setters and the tax authority (fisco) by providing the basis for possible guidelines to be issued on the accounting treatment of bitcoin operations, as well as by defining the appropriate tax treatment; in addition, it makes a contribution for accounting professionals by suggesting the accounting policy to be adopted in these operations. Here, the analysis of the characteristics of bitcoins is compared with the guidelines and concepts of IFRS, in order to elaborate the recommendation for accounting treatment, and it suggests that the most adequate procedure would be that of foreign currency, which would go against the tax treatment adopted up until now by the Brazilian Internal Revenue Service (Receita Federal) or the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) of the United States of America (USA), which suggest treating virtual currencies as goods and not as currencies. It warrants mentioning that this contradiction may cause tax risks for taxpayers.
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