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Kelantan Daily Rainfall Datasets: Persistence in Nature 吉兰丹日降雨数据集:自然界的持久性
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020021
S. M. Norrulashikin, F. Yusof, Z. Yusop, I. Kane, Norizzati Salleh, Aaishah Radziah Jamaludin
Abstract There is evidence that a stationary short memory process that encounters occasional structural break can show the properties of long memory processes or persistence behaviour which may lead to extreme weather condition. In this chapter, we applied three techniques for testing the long memory for six daily rainfall datasets in Kelantan area. The results explained that all the datasets exhibit long memory. An empirical fluctuation process was employed to test for structural changes using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test. The result also shows that structural change was spotted in all datasets. A long memory testing was then engaged to the datasets that were subdivided into their respective break and the results displayed that the subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. Hence, this indicated that there exists a true long memory in the data generating process (DGP) although structural break occurs within the data series.
有证据表明,一个固定的短期记忆过程遇到偶尔的结构中断可以显示出长期记忆过程或持久性行为的特性,这可能导致极端天气条件。在本章中,我们应用三种技术对吉兰丹地区6个日降雨数据集进行了长记忆测试。结果解释了所有的数据集都表现出长记忆。采用基于普通最小二乘(OLS)的累积和(CUSUM)检验,采用经验波动过程对结构变化进行检验。结果还表明,在所有数据集中都发现了结构变化。然后对数据集进行长记忆测试,这些数据集被细分为各自的break,结果显示子系列遵循与原始系列相同的模式。因此,这表明在数据生成过程(DGP)中存在真正的长记忆,尽管在数据序列中会发生结构断裂。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental Investigation on Lightweight Composite Slab for Floating Structures 浮动结构轻量组合楼板试验研究
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020015
Jun Xiu Low, P. Shek, M. Tahir
Composite slabs are gaining wide acceptance in many countries as they lend themselves to faster, lighter and more economic in construction buildings. The strength of composite slabs system relies on the bonding action between the concrete and the steel deck, the shear connections and the cross-sectional resistance of steel beam. However, structural behaviour of composite slab is a complex phenomenon and therefore experimental study is often conducted to establish the actual strength of the structure under ultimate load capacity. The main objective of this study is to determine the structural behaviour of composite slab system until ultimate limit state. Total of two specimens are examined in order to obtain failure mechanism of the composite structure under full load capacity. A new design approach of composite slab for roofing system are proposed in this study to construct a composite slab system that can float in the water but not wash away by flood. The lightweight materials in this composite construction are cold-formed steel and foam concrete. The system focuses on the concept of Industrialised building system (IBS) to reduce the cost and construction time.
复合板在许多国家得到了广泛的接受,因为它们在建筑中更快、更轻、更经济。组合板体系的强度主要取决于混凝土与钢板的粘结作用、剪力连接和钢梁的截面阻力。然而,叠合板的结构性能是一个复杂的现象,因此经常进行试验研究,以确定结构在极限承载能力下的实际强度。本研究的主要目的是确定组合板体系在极限状态前的结构性能。为了得到复合结构在全荷载作用下的破坏机理,共对两个试件进行了试验。本文提出了一种新的屋面系统复合楼板设计方法,构建一种既能浮在水中又不被洪水冲走的复合楼板系统。这种复合结构的轻质材料是冷弯型钢和泡沫混凝土。该系统着重于工业化建筑系统(IBS)的概念,以减少成本和施工时间。
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引用次数: 0
Index 指数
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/s2040-726220180000020023
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引用次数: 0
Adaptation Strategies for Flood Mitigation in Pahang River Basin 彭亨河流域防洪适应策略研究
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020009
N. M. Idris, C. Siwar, Rospidah Ghazali, Nurul Ashikin Alias
Abstract This chapter explores the ways in which residents in Pekan, Kuantan and Temerloh districts dealt with extreme floods in the Pahang River Basin. The data were based on a survey of 602 respondents who were affected by the floods, using a set of questionnaire in a face-to-face interview conducted in June 2015. Results of the study show that the flood has destructed the livelihood, crops and small business activities of the affected communities. Vulnerabilities of the communities are linked to the lack of flood warning, landlessness, unstable housing and food insecurity, in addition to female-headed households with financial burden. Community empowerment is necessary for recovering and reducing the loss and damages incurred and improving the quality of life. The prevention and coping measures aim to reduce risk of disasters for the communities in areas that are most vulnerable and less resilient. Flood preparedness is a good preventive measure to limit the negative impacts of extreme flooding in the future. Upgrading of communication system, diversification of income and strengthening of social institution networks are most appropriately recommended for flood adaptation and mitigation strategies.
本章探讨了彭恒河流域北干、关丹和Temerloh地区居民应对极端洪水的方式。数据基于2015年6月对602名受洪灾影响的受访者进行的一套面对面访谈问卷调查。研究结果表明,洪水破坏了受影响社区的生计、农作物和小企业活动。这些社区的脆弱性与缺乏洪水预警、无地、住房不稳定和粮食不安全以及女户主家庭的经济负担有关。赋予社区权力对于恢复和减少所造成的损失和损害以及改善生活质量是必要的。预防和应对措施旨在减少最脆弱和复原力较差地区社区的灾害风险。防洪准备是一项很好的预防措施,可以限制未来极端洪水的负面影响。在适应和减轻洪水的战略中,最恰当的建议是升级通信系统、收入多样化和加强社会机构网络。
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引用次数: 1
Flood Monitoring System Using Mobile SCADA Based on Multiple Environment Indications 基于多环境指示的移动SCADA洪水监测系统
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020019
Nurul Iman Mohd Sa’at, S. Daud, T. Mantoro
Abstract The impact of mitigating flood occurrence in the rural and urban areas has become crucial as it has affected government policies for countries that are prone to flood disaster. Efforts and funds have been put up to a higher level of capabilities to ensure that coping and managing flood disaster could be resolved. Several initiatives made in managing flood are: effectively monitoring the potential at-risk inundated area, improving the river water irrigation and drainage and undertaking the environmental pollution. This chapter basically focusses more on the improvement of flood monitoring system device at the potential flood area. The approach of ubiquitous mobile SCADA offers a low-cost, portable, and small in size flood monitoring system device with easily accessible data. An easy web monitoring of environment surrounding anywhere and at any time offers a real-time data updated with a very minimum delay of each and every environment data required. There are several sensors like ultrasonic, sound, temperature and humidity, water drop and vibration sensors are equipped together with one small monitoring system platform. The alert of water level condition is notified through a beeping buzzer and light LED notation of various colors of green, yellow and red, which notify any increase of water exceeded. The platform is powered by a rechargeable battery that allows the platform to be mobile and portable. Hence, flood monitoring system platform promotes a low-cost, easy-to-handle and ubiquitous data updated device for a better monitoring system platform.
减轻农村和城市地区洪水发生的影响已经变得至关重要,因为它已经影响到容易发生洪水灾害的国家的政府政策。努力和资金已经达到了更高的水平,以确保应对和管理洪水灾害能够得到解决。在管理洪水方面采取了几项措施:有效监测潜在的危险淹没地区,改善河流灌溉和排水以及承担环境污染。本章主要侧重于潜在洪区洪水监测系统设备的改进。无处不在的移动SCADA提供了一种低成本、便携、体积小、数据易于访问的洪水监测系统设备。随时随地对周围环境进行简单的网络监测,提供实时数据更新,每个环境数据所需的延迟非常小。超声波、声音、温湿度、水滴、振动等传感器集成在一个小型监控系统平台上。水位状况的警报通过蜂鸣器和绿色、黄色和红色的各种颜色的LED灯来通知,以通知水位超过的任何增加。该平台由可充电电池供电,使平台能够移动和便携式。因此,洪水监测系统平台推广一种低成本、易操作、无所不在的数据更新设备,以更好的监测系统平台。
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引用次数: 0
Flood Disaster Prediction Model Based on Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study of Kuala Kangsar, Perak 基于人工神经网络的洪水灾害预测模型——以霹雳州瓜拉甘沙为例
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020018
Nurul Syarafina Shahrir, N. Ahmad, R. Ahmad, R. Dziyauddin
Natural flood disaster frequently happens in Malaysia especially during monsoon season and Kuala Kangsar, Perak is one of the cities with the frequent record of a natural flood disaster. Previous flood disaster faced by this city showed the failure in notify ing the citizen with sufficient time for preparation and evacuation. The authority in charge of the flood disaster in Kuala Kangsar depends on the real time monitoring from the hydrological sensor located at several stations along the main river. The real time information from hydrological sensor failed to provide early notification and warning to the public. Although many hydrological sensors available at the stations, only water level sensors and rainfall sensors are used by authority for flood monitoring. This study developed flood prediction model using artificial intelligent to predict the incoming flood in Kuala Kangsar area based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The flood prediction model is expected to predict the incoming flood disaster by using information from the variety of hydrological sensors. The study finds that the proposed ANN model based on Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) has better performance than other models with the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.98930. The NARX model of flood prediction developed in this study can be referred to future flood prediction model in Kuala Kangsar, Perak.
马来西亚经常发生自然洪水灾害,特别是在季风季节,霹雳州的瓜拉甘沙是自然洪水灾害频发的城市之一。这个城市以前面临的洪水灾害表明,没有给市民足够的时间准备和疏散。负责瓜拉康沙洪水灾害的当局依赖于位于主要河流沿线几个站点的水文传感器的实时监测。水文传感器的实时信息无法向公众提供早期通知和预警。虽然气象站有许多水文传感器,但当局只使用水位传感器和降雨传感器进行洪水监测。本研究建立了基于人工神经网络(ANN)的人工智能洪水预测模型,以预测瓜拉萨地区的来水。洪水预测模型是利用各种水文传感器的信息来预测即将到来的洪水灾害。研究发现,本文提出的基于外生输入非线性自回归网络(NARX)的人工神经网络模型的相关系数为0.98930,其性能优于其他模型。本研究所建立的NARX洪水预测模型,可供未来霹雳州瓜拉甘沙的洪水预测模型参考。
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引用次数: 1
Derivation of Region-specific Curve Number for an Improved Runoff Prediction Accuracy 提高径流预测精度的区域特定曲线数的推导
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020012
L. Ling, Z. Yusop
Abstract The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Soil Conservation Services (SCS) rainfall-runoff model has been applied worldwide since 1954 and adopted by Malaysian government agencies. Malaysia does not have regional specific curve numbers (CN) available for the use in rainfall-runoff modelling, and therefore a SCS-CN practitioner has no option but to adopt its guideline and handbook values which are specific to the US region. The selection of CN to represent a watershed becomes subjective and even inconsistent to represent similar land cover area. In recent decades, hydrologists argue about the accuracy of the predicted runoff results from the model and challenge the validity of the key parameter, initial abstraction ratio coefficient (λ) and the use of CN. Unlike the conventional SCS-CN technique, the proposed calibration methodology in this chapter discarded the use of CN as input to the SCS model and derived statistically significant CN value of a specific region through rainfall-runoff events directly under the guide of inferential statistics. Between July and October of 2004, the derived λ was 0.015, while λ = 0.20 was rejected at alpha = 0.01 level at Melana watershed in Johor, Malaysia. Optimum CN of 88.9 was derived from the 99% confidence interval range from 87.4 to 96.6 at Melana watershed. Residual sum of square (RSS) was reduced by 79% while the runoff model of Nash–Sutcliffe was improved by 233%. The SCS rainfall-runoff model can be calibrated quickly to address urban runoff prediction challenge under rapid land use and land cover changes.
自1954年以来,美国农业部(USDA)土壤保持服务(SCS)降雨径流模型已在全球范围内应用,并被马来西亚政府机构采用。马来西亚没有可用于降雨径流模拟的区域特定曲线数(CN),因此,SCS-CN从业者别无选择,只能采用其针对美国地区的指南和手册值。选择CN代表流域变得主观,甚至不一致,以表示相似的土地覆盖面积。近几十年来,水文学家对模型预测径流结果的准确性提出了质疑,并对关键参数初始抽象比系数(λ)和CN使用的有效性提出了质疑。与传统的SCS-CN技术不同,本章提出的校准方法放弃了将CN作为SCS模型的输入,直接在推理统计的指导下,通过降雨径流事件推导出特定地区具有统计意义的CN值。2004年7 - 10月,马来西亚柔佛州Melana流域的λ值为0.015,λ = 0.20在alpha = 0.01水平下被拒绝。在87.4 ~ 96.6的99%置信区间内,Melana流域的最佳CN值为88.9。残差平方和(RSS)降低了79%,而径流模型Nash-Sutcliffe改进了233%。SCS降雨径流模型可以快速校准,以解决快速土地利用和土地覆盖变化下的城市径流预测挑战。
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引用次数: 2
Prelims 预备考试
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/s2040-726220180000020024
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Transportation Modes and Routes for Disaster Relief in Kelantan Using Geographical Information System 基于地理信息系统的吉兰丹省救灾运输方式及路线评估
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020014
M. W. A. Ramli, N. Alias, S. Taib
Abstract Natural hazards cause enormous damage to human beings including loss of life and property. Although Malaysia is fortunate as it does not experience disasters such as volcanic eruptions and typhoons, the country is prone to flood and landslides. In December 2014, Malaysia was hit by the worst flood in Kelantan called Bah Kuning meaning yellow flood. The flood has caused thousands homeless. During the flood, the victims were evacuated to the nearest evacuation centres for shelter. However, the victims received little support due to agencies involved were unable to gain access. Lack of supporting transportation and infrastructure for disaster relief has caused deficiency in coordination. The evacuation preparedness for disaster management may be improved by integrating information through geographical information system (GIS). This research aims to assess and identify suitable locations for shelters and routes for disaster reliefs. The December 2014 flood was simulated using HEC-RAS and ArcGIS. Suitability analysis was used to determine best locations for helipads and routes based on the simulated inundated areas, roads, rivers and evacuations centres. The study also maps the best possible locations for evacuation centres and transportation modes for disaster reliefs.
自然灾害给人类带来巨大的损失,包括生命财产损失。虽然马来西亚没有经历过火山爆发和台风等灾害,但它是一个容易发生洪水和山体滑坡的国家。2014年12月,马来西亚遭受吉兰丹最严重的洪水袭击,被称为Bah Kuning,意思是黄色洪水。洪水使数千人无家可归。洪水期间,灾民被疏散到最近的疏散中心避难。然而,由于有关机构无法进入,受害者得到的支持很少。救灾配套运输和基础设施的缺乏导致协调不足。通过地理信息系统(GIS)整合信息,可以提高灾害管理疏散准备工作的水平。这项研究的目的是评估和确定适当的避难所地点和救灾路线。利用HEC-RAS和ArcGIS对2014年12月的洪水进行了模拟。根据模拟的淹没区域、道路、河流和疏散中心,使用适用性分析来确定直升机停机坪的最佳位置和路线。该研究还绘制了疏散中心和救灾运输方式的最佳可能位置。
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引用次数: 3
Burden of Health-related Issues and Community Empowerment in Malaysia’s East Coast Flood 马来西亚东海岸洪灾中健康相关问题的负担和社区赋权
Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1108/S2040-726220180000020011
S. W. Puteh, C. Siwar, R. Hod, A. Nawi, Idayu Badilla Idris, I. Ahmad, N. M. Idris, Nurul Ashikin Alias, M. Taha
Abstract River flood exposes the population to multiple attacks from the physical, mental, health risks and its related negative effects. This study focused on the Pahang River and the three worst-hit district population (Pekan, Kuantan and Temerloh). Tools on areas of self-perceived health symptoms, QOL, depression, PTSD and community empowerment were assessed. Semi-guided questionnaires were distributed to a total of 602 victims. Questions on health symptoms were asked to respondents (R) and household members (HM). PTSD screening, i.e., the Trauma Screening Questionnaire, was used. Depression was assessed through the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). WHOQOL-BREF assessed four domains of QOL, i.e., physical activity, psychological, social relationships and environment. Community empowerment using the Individual Community Related Empowerment tool to assess five domains, i.e., self-efficacy, participation, motivation, intention and critical awareness. Prevalent disease showed that majority suffered from hypertension (11.0%) and diabetes (7.3%). Two main symptoms experienced were cough (R = 47.2%, HM = 43.7%) and flu (R = 42.7%, HM = 40.4). Monthly health expenditure was higher post flood. Purchase of prescription medications rose from MYR24.40 to 31.02. A total of 33 people were suspected to suffer from PTSD. Through BDI assessment, it was estimated that as many as 104 (17.3%) suffered overt (high) depression. The prevalence of QOL domains are as such: low physical activity was highest at 59%, low psychological activity at 53.3%, low social relationships at 43% and low environment at 45.2%. On community empowerment, low empowerment was seen on four domains: self-efficacy at 52%, participation at 55%, motivation at 54.2% and critical awareness at 74.4%. The domain with good intention and willing to participate was at 54%. Results indicate that the community was not adaptable to flood events. This is evident from high amount of experienced symptoms, low QOL (physical and psychological aspects) and empowerment (except intention). Proportion of PTSD and overt (high) depression was however quite low.
摘要河流洪水使人群遭受来自身体、精神、健康等方面的多重攻击及其相关的负面影响。本研究的重点是彭恒河和三个受灾最严重的地区人口(北坎、关丹和Temerloh)。评估了自我感知健康症状、生活质量、抑郁、创伤后应激障碍和社区赋权等领域的工具。共向602名受害者分发了半指导问卷。向应答者(R)和家庭成员(HM)询问有关健康症状的问题。PTSD筛查,即创伤筛查问卷。通过贝克抑郁量表(BDI)评估抑郁程度。WHOQOL-BREF评估了生活质量的四个领域,即身体活动、心理、社会关系和环境。社区赋权使用个人社区相关赋权工具来评估五个领域,即自我效能、参与、动机、意图和批判意识。常见病为高血压(11.0%)和糖尿病(7.3%)。两种主要症状为咳嗽(R = 47.2%, HM = 43.7%)和流感(R = 42.7%, HM = 40.4%)。洪涝后的月卫生支出较高。处方药采购由24.40元上升至31.02元。总共有33人被怀疑患有创伤后应激障碍。通过BDI评估,估计多达104人(17.3%)患有显性(高度)抑郁。生活质量领域的患病率如下:低体力活动最高,占59%,低心理活动占53.3%,低社会关系占43%,低环境占45.2%。在社区赋权方面,四个领域的赋权程度较低:自我效能感为52%,参与度为55%,动机为54.2%,批判性意识为74.4%。有良好意愿并愿意参与的域名占54%。结果表明,该群落对洪水事件的适应能力不强。这从大量的经历症状、较低的生活质量(生理和心理方面)和授权(意图除外)中可以明显看出。然而,PTSD和显性(高度)抑郁的比例相当低。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Improving Flood Management, Prediction and Monitoring
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