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Forecasting Lending Interest Rates of Commercial Banks in Cameroon with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model. 用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测喀麦隆商业银行贷款利率。
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.47941/ijecop.1483
Samuel Ringmu Huboh, Mom Aloysius Njong, Daniel Tambi Mbu
Purpose: Lending Interest rate prediction is one of the most relevant aspects in the banking sector and a country’s economy. Lending is an important variable within this sector since economic and market conditions vary over time. Efficient methods are needed to describe the trends and characteristics of lending interest rate. The performance of different time series models for analysis of lending interest rates of commercial banks in Cameroon is provided to determine the feasibility of method for the generation of results in the wake of economic decisions. Methodology: Historical time series of lending interest rates in the banking sector in Cameroon were analysed for the period 1972 to 2023. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used to analyse the time Series data. Findings: It was revealed that 76.75% of the variation in Lending interest rates in Cameroon is accounted for by the lending interest rates for the past 52 years, the inflation rate for the past 52 years and the GDP for the last 52 years. Therefore, an increase in lending interest rates 52 years ago by one unit will increase lending interest rates today by 0.808 units. Similarly, an in increase in inflation by one unit will reduce lending interest rates by 0.002 units. In addition, an increase in GDP by one unit will reduce lending interest rates by 0.000001 unit. The ARIMAX (1,1,4) demonstrated to be more robust. Therefore, lending interest rates in Cameroon will reduce with time as from the year 2023 to 2027 and above. Investors are encouraged to borrow from the banks and invest within this time frame. Unique Contribution to Theory Practice and Policy: Long and varying lags of interest rates separate the effects of monetary policy from the economy and has caused a lot of unemployment in any society. The degree to which interest rates rise has pulled down the economy is alarming. This can be seen in businesses, economic projections, and spending. More businesses report that interest rates have reduced their capital and non-capital spending expectations compared to 2022. A further indication that the impact of higher interest rates has yet to be fully felt is evidence that keeping the existing policy course will limit the spending activity of more enterprises. Monetary policy has surpassed all other concerns for finance executives in the past quarter. Survey participants mentioned interest rates in their decision to cut spending. The study provides a unique way of comparing results of interest rates using a traditional time series model to a typical Interest rate model.BEAC should chose an accommodating monetary policy centred on decreasing the already high interest rate and injecting cash into CEMAC savings in response to the economic shock currently existing in Cameroon.
目的:贷款利率预测是银行业和一个国家经济最相关的方面之一。贷款是该部门的一个重要变量,因为经济和市场情况随时间而变化。需要有效的方法来描述贷款利率的趋势和特征。提供了喀麦隆商业银行贷款利率分析的不同时间序列模型的性能,以确定在经济决策之后产生结果的方法的可行性。 方法:分析了1972年至2023年期间喀麦隆银行业贷款利率的历史时间序列。Box-Jenkins方法用于分析时间序列数据。 研究发现:喀麦隆贷款利率变化的76.75%是由过去52年的贷款利率、过去52年的通货膨胀率和过去52年的GDP造成的。因此,52年前的贷款利率每增加1个单位,今天的贷款利率就会增加0.808个单位。同样,通货膨胀每增加1个单位,贷款利率就会降低0.002个单位。此外,GDP每增加一个单位,贷款利率就会降低0.000001个单位。ARIMAX(1,1,4)被证明具有更强的鲁棒性。因此,从2023年到2027年及以上,喀麦隆的贷款利率将随着时间的推移而降低。鼓励投资者向银行借款,并在此期限内进行投资。对理论、实践和政策的独特贡献:长期和变化的利率滞后使货币政策的效果与经济分离,并在任何社会造成大量失业。利率上升对经济的拖累程度令人担忧。这可以在商业、经济预测和支出中看到。更多的企业报告称,与2022年相比,利率降低了他们的资本和非资本支出预期。加息的影响尚未被充分感受到的另一个迹象是,有证据表明,保持现有的政策路线将限制更多企业的支出活动。在过去一个季度,货币政策已经超过了金融高管的所有其他担忧。调查参与者在决定削减开支时提到了利率。该研究提供了一种独特的方法来比较使用传统时间序列模型和典型利率模型的利率结果。中非共同体应选择一种宽松的货币政策,其重点是降低已经很高的利率,并向中非共同体的储蓄注入现金,以应对喀麦隆目前存在的经济冲击。
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 Methodology: Historical time series of lending interest rates in the banking sector in Cameroon were analysed for the period 1972 to 2023. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used to analyse the time Series data.
 Findings: It was revealed that 76.75% of the variation in Lending interest rates in Cameroon is accounted for by the lending interest rates for the past 52 years, the inflation rate for the past 52 years and the GDP for the last 52 years. Therefore, an increase in lending interest rates 52 years ago by one unit will increase lending interest rates today by 0.808 units. Similarly, an in increase in inflation by one unit will reduce lending interest rates by 0.002 units. In addition, an increase in GDP by one unit will reduce lending interest rates by 0.000001 unit. The ARIMAX (1,1,4) demonstrated to be more robust. Therefore, lending interest rates in Cameroon will reduce with time as from the year 2023 to 2027 and above. Investors are encouraged to borrow from the banks and invest within this time frame.
 Unique Contribution to Theory Practice and Policy: Long and varying lags of interest rates separate the effects of monetary policy from the economy and has caused a lot of unemployment in any society. The degree to which interest rates rise has pulled down the economy is alarming. This can be seen in businesses, economic projections, and spending. More businesses report that interest rates have reduced their capital and non-capital spending expectations compared to 2022. A further indication that the impact of higher interest rates has yet to be fully felt is evidence that keeping the existing policy course will limit the spending activity of more enterprises. Monetary policy has surpassed all other concerns for finance executives in the past quarter. Survey participants mentioned interest rates in their decision to cut spending. The study provides a unique way of comparing results of interest rates using a traditional time series model to a typical Interest rate model.BEAC should chose an accommodating monetary policy centred on decreasing the already high interest rate and injecting cash into CEMAC savings in response to the economic shock currently existing in Cameroon.","PeriodicalId":38704,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136381462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investing for More than Just Money: The Non-Utilitarian Benefits of Investments 投资不仅仅是为了钱:投资的非功利利益
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.47941/ijecop.1451
Celestine Gitonga Gatabi, Michael Musyoka Muema, Godfrey Oreko Nyakoi, Ibrahim Tirimba Ondabu
Purpose: This article aimed to identify the psychological, social, environmental and ethical benefits of investments. Methodology: A total of 82 articles that were initially picked for this study, 30 articles were however selected and critically scrutinized to yield this review article. Findings: The review findings reveal that investments can have a significant impact on investors' well-being and highlight the importance of considering these benefits in investment decision-making processes. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: One limitation of the existing studies is that they are often based on self-reported data, which may be subject to bias or social desirability effects. This research describes new paradigms to the additional benefits of investments, in addition to the famous monetary gains such as the psychological, social, environmental and ethical benefits. Understanding these trade-offs can help investors make more informed decisions about their investment strategies.
目的:本文旨在确定投资的心理、社会、环境和伦理效益。 方法:最初为本研究挑选了82篇文章,然而选择了30篇文章并对其进行了严格审查,从而产生了这篇综述文章。 研究结果:研究结果表明,投资可以对投资者的福祉产生重大影响,并强调了在投资决策过程中考虑这些利益的重要性。 对理论、实践和政策的独特贡献:现有研究的一个局限性是它们通常基于自我报告的数据,这些数据可能受到偏见或社会期望效应的影响。本研究描述了除了著名的金钱收益(如心理、社会、环境和道德收益)之外,投资额外收益的新范式。了解这些权衡可以帮助投资者对他们的投资策略做出更明智的决定。
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 Methodology: A total of 82 articles that were initially picked for this study, 30 articles were however selected and critically scrutinized to yield this review article.
 Findings: The review findings reveal that investments can have a significant impact on investors' well-being and highlight the importance of considering these benefits in investment decision-making processes.
 Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: One limitation of the existing studies is that they are often based on self-reported data, which may be subject to bias or social desirability effects. This research describes new paradigms to the additional benefits of investments, in addition to the famous monetary gains such as the psychological, social, environmental and ethical benefits. Understanding these trade-offs can help investors make more informed decisions about their investment strategies.","PeriodicalId":38704,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136308074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of Diaspora Remittances on Economic Development in Kenya 侨民汇款对肯尼亚经济发展的影响
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.47941/ijecop.1415
Fartun Adan Issack, Charles C. Nzai
Purpose: This study intended to establish the effects of remittances from Kenyans residing abroad on the country's economic growth from 1988 to 2021. The study specifically calculated how diaspora remittances would affect the country's absolute poverty from 1988 to 2021, as well as how they would affect gross domestic product and gross national product. Methodology: The study implored the error correction model to conduct the estimation due to the stochastic nature of remittances. The modified Granger causality test by Toda and Yamamoto was applied to examine the connections between GDP and remittances as well as the connections between poverty and remittances. Using STATA software, an econometric estimation was performed. Findings: According to the study, remittances per capita had a significant impact on Kenya's GDP, GNI, and degree of absolute poverty. It was discovered that GDP and GNI per capita were granger causes of remittance per capita, but neither absolute poverty nor remittance per capita were granger caused by absolute poverty. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The report recommends that, in order to guarantee a steady stream of remittances into the country's economy, essential efforts be taken to stabilize the currency rate and inflation.
目的:本研究旨在确定1988年至2021年居住在国外的肯尼亚人汇款对该国经济增长的影响。该研究特别计算了侨民汇款将如何影响该国1988年至2021年的绝对贫困,以及它们将如何影响国内生产总值(gdp)和国民生产总值(gnp)。方法:由于汇款的随机性,本研究采用误差修正模型进行估计。采用Toda和Yamamoto的修正格兰杰因果检验来检验GDP与汇款之间的关系以及贫困与汇款之间的关系。使用STATA软件进行计量经济估计。研究发现:根据研究,人均汇款对肯尼亚的GDP、GNI和绝对贫困程度有显著影响。研究发现,人均GDP和GNI是人均汇款的格兰杰原因,但绝对贫困和人均汇款都不是绝对贫困的格兰杰原因。对理论、政策和实践的独特贡献:报告建议,为了保证源源不断的汇款流入该国经济,应采取必要措施稳定货币汇率和通货膨胀。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Refined Crude Oil Imports on Carbon Dioxide Emission (C02) in Nigeria 精炼原油进口对尼日利亚二氧化碳排放的影响
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.47941/ijecop.1315
O. Adeyemo, L. Deekor
Purpose: The study investigated the impact of refined crude oil imports on carbon dioxide emission in Nigeria covering the period 1980 to 2020. Methodology: The study employed preliminary test of Augmented Dickey Fuller and Dickey-Fuller GLS unit root testing procedure while the main estimation technique is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data for the study is sourced from the World Bank’s development indicators and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for various years. The dependent variable is carbon dioxide emission (CO2) while explanatory variables include refined oil imports (M), gross domestic product (Y) for economic growth, total factor productivity (TFP) for technological progress and innovation, oil price (OP) and nominal exchange rate (EXR). Findings: Findings in the study show that the contribution of refined oil imports to carbon dioxide emission is positively signed and statistically significant at 5 percent level in both long run and short run. There exists a unidirectional causation between oil import, and carbon dioxide emission. The study concludes that the positive values of refined oil imports pose serious environmental threat given the rise in carbon dioxide emission. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The study therefore, recommends amongst others that the policymakers particularly the Nigeria’s executive arm of government need to diversify the economy from oil-based to non-oil based. Also, the country’s refineries should be de-regulated to reduce the over dependency on the importation of the refined crude oil imports alongside with the establishment of Government Agencies that will strictly monitor the refined crude oil production process which will go a long way in reducing the over reliance on refined crude oil importation as well as the environmental challenges emanating from refined oil consumption.
目的:本研究调查了1980年至2020年期间尼日利亚精炼原油进口对二氧化碳排放的影响。方法:本研究采用增强Dickey Fuller和Dickey-Fuller GLS单位根检验程序进行初步检验,主要估计技术为自回归分布滞后(ARDL)。这项研究的数据来自世界银行的发展指标和尼日利亚中央银行各年的统计公报。因变量是二氧化碳排放量(CO2),解释变量包括成品油进口量(M)、经济增长的国内生产总值(Y)、技术进步和创新的全要素生产率(TFP)、石油价格(OP)和名义汇率(EXR)。研究发现:研究结果表明,在长期和短期水平上,成品油进口对二氧化碳排放的贡献在5%的水平上具有正标志和统计学显著性。石油进口与二氧化碳排放之间存在单向因果关系。该研究得出结论,鉴于二氧化碳排放量的增加,成品油进口的正值对环境构成严重威胁。对理论、政策和实践的独特贡献:因此,该研究建议,除其他外,政策制定者,特别是尼日利亚政府的执行机构,需要将经济从石油基础转向非石油基础。此外,该国的炼油厂应该放松管制,以减少对精炼原油进口的过度依赖,同时建立政府机构,严格监控精炼原油的生产过程,这将大大减少对精炼原油进口的过度依赖,以及精炼原油消费带来的环境挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The Nexus between Capital Flight and Economic Growth. A Panel Data Investigation of the Mediating Role of Inflation (Kenya: 1986-2021) 资本外逃与经济增长的关系。通货膨胀中介作用的面板数据调查(肯尼亚:1986-2021)
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-12 DOI: 10.47941/ijecop.1205
Joseph Macheru
Purpose: This paper investigates whether inflation moderated the relationship between capital flight and economic growth in Kenya. The study attempts to answer one question. Has the effect of capital flight on economic growth been influenced significantly by the inflation rate in Kenya? Design/methodology/approach – The panel data for the variables under study, collected from World Investment Reports published by World Bank, are analyzed using feasible generalized least squares method to examine the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables over the period 1987–2018. The interaction effect has been studied to examine the growth impact of FDI in presence of host country characteristics. Findings – The study found out that foreign portfolio investment outflows, profit repatriations, and inflation rates had no significant effects on economic growth when the interaction variable for inflation was included in the model. Outward foreign direct investment had a significant effect on economic growth when inflation is included in the model as an interaction variable with a positive coefficient indicating they had a positive significant relationship. The interaction variable had a negative but insignificant coefficient indicating that inflation rate did not moderate the relationship between capital flight and economic growth. From the empirical findings, we can infer that capital flight did not constrain resources and subsequently did not affect economic growth negatively. We also find that inflation rate cannot be used to control or moderate the effect of capital flight on the economy and Kenya should not pursue policies geared towards using inflation to moderate this relationship. Originality/value – The present study provides for the first time comprehensive empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation, economic growth, and the increased rate of capital outflows in Kenya. Therefore, this study would be of prime importance for policymakers. Originality/value – Very few studies have been conducted to examine the nexus between inflation, capital flight and economic growth in Kenyans financial markets. Assessing the interaction of these variables in Kenya and their impact on economic growth by use of panel data methodology is an original contribution of this paper toward the existing body of knowledge.
目的:本文探讨通货膨胀是否调节了肯尼亚资本外逃与经济增长之间的关系。这项研究试图回答一个问题。资本外逃对经济增长的影响是否受到肯尼亚通货膨胀率的显著影响?设计/方法/方法-从世界银行出版的《世界投资报告》中收集的所研究变量的面板数据使用可行广义最小二乘法进行分析,以检查1987-2018年期间因变量和解释变量之间的关系。研究了相互作用效应,考察了东道国特征下FDI对经济增长的影响。研究发现,当模型中包含通货膨胀的交互变量时,外国证券投资流出、利润汇回和通货膨胀率对经济增长没有显著影响。当将通货膨胀作为交互变量纳入模型时,对外直接投资对经济增长有显著影响,其系数为正,表明它们之间存在显著的正相关关系。交互变量具有负但不显著的系数,表明通货膨胀率没有调节资本外逃与经济增长之间的关系。从实证研究结果可以推断,资本外逃并没有约束资源,因此也没有对经济增长产生负面影响。我们还发现,通货膨胀率不能用来控制或缓和资本外逃对经济的影响,肯尼亚不应该采取旨在利用通货膨胀来缓和这种关系的政策。原创性/价值-本研究首次提供了关于肯尼亚通货膨胀、经济增长和资本外流速度增加之间关系的综合经验证据。因此,这项研究对政策制定者来说至关重要。独创性/价值——很少有研究对肯尼亚金融市场中通货膨胀、资本外逃和经济增长之间的关系进行调查。通过使用面板数据方法评估肯尼亚这些变量的相互作用及其对经济增长的影响是本文对现有知识体系的原始贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Signals and Indian Real Estate Firms 宏观经济信号与印度房地产公司
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-16 DOI: 10.47941/ijecop.1181
U. Kumar
Purpose: India's real estate sector has been growing in size and influenced the country's economic growth. This paper studies the link between listed real estate firms in India and macro-economic activities and growth. Therefore, it examines the effect of rural production, foreign inflows, capital market growths, and money flows on the activities of real estate firms listed in the Indian stock exchanges. Methodology: The paper uses data of 65 listed real estate firms from 2001 to 2016. It uses a multivariate regression model to examine the relationship, and the effect of the rural economy, financial markets, international flows, and money flows on real estate firms. The regression models use firm-specific measures and different determinants of macroeconomic variables for the analysis. Findings: The findings suggest that macroeconomic variables signal a potential increase in the real estate industry's performance. An increase in foreign direct investment leads to increasing real estate activities. Personal remittances bring more revenues for real estate firms but not the stock returns of these firms. Capital markets growth has limited influence on this sector. Money flows, notably savings, positively affect the real estate industry. However, the rural economy does not significantly affect real estate activities. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The study proposes that Indian real estate sector needs more transparent and regulatory structures to reap the benefits of the expected growth of the economy. Government should bring policies to capital market reform specifically towards real estate industry to generate interests among domestic and international investors in this sector.
目的:印度房地产行业的规模一直在增长,并影响着该国的经济增长。本文研究了印度房地产上市公司与宏观经济活动和经济增长之间的关系。因此,它考察了农村生产、外资流入、资本市场增长和资金流动对在印度证券交易所上市的房地产公司活动的影响。方法:本文采用2001 - 2016年65家房地产上市公司的数据。它使用多元回归模型来检验这种关系,以及农村经济、金融市场、国际流动和资金流动对房地产公司的影响。回归模型使用企业特定措施和宏观经济变量的不同决定因素进行分析。研究结果:研究结果表明,宏观经济变量表明房地产行业的业绩有潜在的增长。外国直接投资的增加导致房地产活动的增加。个人汇款为房地产公司带来了更多的收入,但没有为这些公司带来股票回报。资本市场的增长对该行业的影响有限。资金流动,尤其是储蓄,对房地产行业有积极影响。然而,农村经济对房地产活动的影响并不显著。对理论、政策和实践的独特贡献:该研究提出,印度房地产行业需要更加透明和监管的结构,以从预期的经济增长中获益。政府应该出台资本市场改革政策,特别是针对房地产行业,以引起国内外投资者对该行业的兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of Constituent Determinants of Financial Inclusion: Evidence from Mauritania 金融普惠的构成因素调查:来自毛里塔尼亚的证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/ijepee.2023.10055397
M. Sidi, Salina Kassim
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引用次数: 0
Contribution of non-timber forest products to the food security of households bordering the P 非木材林产品对边境农户粮食安全的贡献
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/ijepee.2023.10056049
Soumaïla Sawadogo
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引用次数: 0
What factors affect scientists innovation activity: evidence from Russia 影响科学家创新活动的因素:来自俄罗斯的证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/ijepee.2023.10054222
D. Bazin, G. Volkova, V. Teslenko
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引用次数: 0
Analysing Muda under COVID-19 pandemic: a case study in a Spanish supermarket COVID-19大流行下的Muda分析:以西班牙一家超市为例
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/ijepee.2023.129783
M. Contreras, M. Barraza, Lucía Barcos Redín
Lean service aims at identifying and eliminating Muda or waste (non-value-added activities). The purpose of this paper is to answer the research questions: Which types of waste can be observed in supermarket stores during COVID-19 pandemic? How has it impacted the operational processes in stores? An exploratory case study based on structured direct observation has been conducted. A supermarket store in a Spanish mid-size city has been selected and observed for more than 30 weeks. Methods to gather data were document analysis, direct and participative observation and informal interviews with customers and employees. Seven types of Muda (defects, motion, over-processing, inventory, overproduction, transportation, and time) were identified and measured prior to COVID-19 pandemic and after the first weeks. The results show that all types of Muda increased significantly during the first four weeks after the pandemic outbreak, but they decrease afterwards when actions were implemented by the management. Copyright © 2023 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
精益服务旨在识别和消除无用或浪费(无增值活动)。本文的目的是回答研究问题:在COVID-19大流行期间,超市可以观察到哪些类型的废物?它是如何影响商店的操作流程的?基于结构化直接观察的探索性案例研究。西班牙某中型城市的一家超市被选中,并进行了30多周的观察。收集资料的方法为文献分析、直接和参与式观察以及对顾客和员工的非正式访谈。在COVID-19大流行之前和最初几周之后,确定并测量了七种类型的Muda(缺陷、运动、过度加工、库存、生产过剩、运输和时间)。结果表明,在疫情暴发后的前4周内,所有类型的Muda均显著增加,但在管理部门采取行动后,其数量有所减少。版权所有©2023 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies
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