Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica最新文献

Due to high import dependency, China's domestic soybean market became unstable and soybean production was lingering and declining. It would be better to know the correlation between international and China's domestic soybean market for policy-making and production decision. This study used data of CBOT soybean futures price, imported soybean distribution price at Qingdao port and soybean spot price in China from September 10, 2011 to November 19, 2016 and chose multivariate GARCH model to check the spillover effect and correlation between them. The results showed that price volatilities of three markets had significant clustering effect while GARCH effect was stronger than ARCH effect. The spillover effect and correlations between markets were remarkable. It demonstrated the imported soybean market was significantly affected by the international soybean future market volatility, and such instability then resulted in violent fluctuations of China's domestic soybean spot market. Policies should be made to keep China's soybean industry safe and developed.

The impact of nonperforming loans determinants of Ecuador and Colombia is obtained in order to apply them to stress tests. Estimated ARIMAX models suggest that in Ecuador shocks are rapidly transmitted. The delinquency of both countries is negatively sensitive to liquidity (the most important factor) and the intermediation rate, but their impacts and the speed of transmission are different.

In Ecuador, the price of oil, volume of credit and economic activity are important determinants. In Colombia, the stock market shock is negative and immediate; import shocks are the most important and it are transmitted in the short and medium term. The impacts of manufacturing production occur later.

This is the first empirical research that compares, between both countries, the impact of each factor on nonperforming loans. The models contribute to propose economic and management policies that produce impacts on the performance of nonperforming loans.

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of the so-called the baby diapers cartel in Colombia. We use data on quantities sold and unit prices of diapers at the region level in the period 2004-2016, and we carry out two exercises: first, following the line of analysis of the Colombian competition authority, we use time-series methods to analyze market prices between 2004 and 2016. Results suggest mixed evidence on the impact of the collusive behavior on the market. In a second exercise, we estimate a structural model of supply and demand that allows us to regain marginal costs and price-cost margins of the firms in the industry. Based on simulations of counterfactual scenarios ranging from more intense competition to perfect collusion, we show that the industry numbers in the cartel period are closer to a competitive scenario rather than to a collusive one. Our results suggest that a coordination failure between the firms in the cartel may have taken place.

This paper builds a general equilibrium model that incorporates a bank, borrowing constraints, default and an exogenous capital requirement to study the effect of the latter on the composition of bank funding and on the response of the economy to shocks. Ex-ante heterogeneous households decide how much to save or borrow for the sake of consumption (consumer credit) or the provision of housing services(mortgages). These choices are subject to borrowing limits, which depend on the value of real estate assets (for mortgages) or labour income (for consumer loans). The model includes a final good producer and a continuum of intermediate goods producers who must borrow in order to finance working capital/labour requirements (business credit borrowing) and are subject to nominal rigidities. Saving and borrowing are intermediated by a bank facing exogenous capital requirements that differ for each credit category. Capital requirements are modelled as a penalty function following Den Haan and De Wind (2012). The paper focuses on the response of the model economy to monetary, productivity and financial shocks with or without capital requirements. In the absence of capital requirements, any shock that reduces the deposit rate will incentivize the bank to switch away from bank capital into deposits, thus increasing the demand for deposits and dampening the effect of the shock on interest rates and the price of housing services. The main effect of capital requirements in the model is to disrupt the ability of the bank of switching to cheaper funding sources (deposits) after a shock. Capital requirements thus have the effect of amplifying the response of aggregate variables to shocks through the composition of the right-hand side of the balance-sheet of the bank, and not through the well-studied channel of leverage constraints affecting its left-hand side.

This paper assesses the effect of external shocks on household income from a regional perspective. External shocks are measured interacting economic growth in migrant-recipient countries and region-specific migration flows. Effects are estimated using difference-in-difference models in a sample of household surveys from 2007 to 2015. Results show that positive growth periods in migrant-recipient countries have positive effects on income in high-migration regions, which is largely explained by increasing remittances. Most gains come from labour income in households without remittances, which indicates that remittances generate significant positive externalities. Effects on health coverage, school attendance, and child labour tend to be smaller and vary by country.

Taxes on financial transactions have been especially controversial because of their potential effects on banking disintermediation. A modality of such taxes (Bank Debit Tax, BDT) was introduced in Colombia since the late nineties. Using monthly panel data from 1996 to 2014 for the major depository institutions, this paper provides evidence on the effects of the BDT on bank intermediation spread. For the total sample (thirteen banks), results suggest that nowadays the hypothetical elimination of the BDT would reduce spreads in 60 basis points, i.e. from 7.7% to levels close to 7.1%. The results do not provide clear evidence of differential impacts by bank size. Additional instruments of the financial repression as well as other determinants of banking spreads confirm the expected effects.