Pub Date : 2021-10-07DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20211007
Joel A. Elvery, M. Oleson
In his press conference after the July 2021 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that “[W]ith successive waves of COVID...there has tended to be...less in the way of economic implications from each wave. And we will see whether that is the case with the delta variety” (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2021). In this District Data Brief, we show that state-level data suggest that, indeed, economic implications from the latest wave have been less than those from the fall 2020 wave. While there has been some consumer response to the delta-variant-driven COVID-19 surge, it has been weaker than the response to the fall 2020 COVID-19 surge.
在2021年7月联邦公开市场委员会会议后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，“随着连续的新冠肺炎疫情……趋向于……每一波浪潮对经济的影响较小。我们将看看delta品种是否也是如此”(Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System, 2021)。在这份地区数据简报中，我们表明，州一级的数据表明，事实上，最新一波浪潮的经济影响小于2020年秋季浪潮。虽然消费者对delta变量驱动的COVID-19激增有一些反应，但它比对2020年秋季COVID-19激增的反应要弱。
{"title":"Does Spending Slide When COVID-19 Surges?","authors":"Joel A. Elvery, M. Oleson","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20211007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20211007","url":null,"abstract":"In his press conference after the July 2021 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that “[W]ith successive waves of COVID...there has tended to be...less in the way of economic implications from each wave. And we will see whether that is the case with the delta variety” (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2021). In this District Data Brief, we show that state-level data suggest that, indeed, economic implications from the latest wave have been less than those from the fall 2020 wave. While there has been some consumer response to the delta-variant-driven COVID-19 surge, it has been weaker than the response to the fall 2020 COVID-19 surge.","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127202182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-30DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20210930
S. Whitaker
Because of the American Rescue Plan, $350 billion will be distributed to state and local governments to help speed the nation’s economic recovery from the pandemic. Will these allocations be modest, or will they create a once-in-a-generation opportunity?
{"title":"How Large Are the American Rescue Plan Fund Distributions to State and Local Governments?","authors":"S. Whitaker","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20210930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20210930","url":null,"abstract":"Because of the American Rescue Plan, $350 billion will be distributed to state and local governments to help speed the nation’s economic recovery from the pandemic. Will these allocations be modest, or will they create a once-in-a-generation opportunity?","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123164202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-29DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20210929
Julianne Dunn, Isabel A. Brizuela
When the coronavirus pandemic began, many feared the housing market would collapse as it did in the mid-2000s. Instead, the industry has struggled to keep up with an influx of demand for homes, leading to rapidly rising prices. What’s next for residential real estate and construction?
{"title":"Strong Demand, Limited Supply, and Rising Prices: The Economics of Pandemic-Era Housing","authors":"Julianne Dunn, Isabel A. Brizuela","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20210929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20210929","url":null,"abstract":"When the coronavirus pandemic began, many feared the housing market would collapse as it did in the mid-2000s. Instead, the industry has struggled to keep up with an influx of demand for homes, leading to rapidly rising prices. What’s next for residential real estate and construction?","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116674589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-25DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-DDB-20210325
S. Whitaker
When the COVID-19 pandemic forced tens of millions of people to work remotely, some chose to relocate out of high-cost, large metro areas. Did people move to cheaper metros or give up in city living altogether? How many will follow in their footsteps, and what could their relocating mean for the places they choose?
{"title":"Migrants from High-Cost, Large Metro Areas during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Their Destinations, and How Many Could Follow","authors":"S. Whitaker","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-DDB-20210325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-DDB-20210325","url":null,"abstract":"When the COVID-19 pandemic forced tens of millions of people to work remotely, some chose to relocate out of high-cost, large metro areas. Did people move to cheaper metros or give up in city living altogether? How many will follow in their footsteps, and what could their relocating mean for the places they choose?","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123648925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-22DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20201022
S. Whitaker, Cornelius C. Johnson
Did the Great Recession give local governments a better idea of how much savings they needed to weather another economic downturn? To find out, our economists studied financial statements from 25 cities and 25 counties in the Fourth District at two points in time: the most recent statements available and at the close of the 2007, just before the Great Recession.
{"title":"Were Fourth District Local Governments Ready for a Recession? How the Great Recession Influenced How Much They Save","authors":"S. Whitaker, Cornelius C. Johnson","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20201022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20201022","url":null,"abstract":"Did the Great Recession give local governments a better idea of how much savings they needed to weather another economic downturn? To find out, our economists studied financial statements from 25 cities and 25 counties in the Fourth District at two points in time: the most recent statements available and at the close of the 2007, just before the Great Recession.","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125239403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-27DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200827
Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Pawel M. Krolikowski
With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act data—a more timely indicator—reveal four findings about job loss during this pandemic.
{"title":"Layoffs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Four Findings from WARN Act Data","authors":"Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Pawel M. Krolikowski","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200827","url":null,"abstract":"With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act data—a more timely indicator—reveal four findings about job loss during this pandemic.","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114955608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-29DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200629
S. Whitaker
In this data brief, the author estimates that state and local governments have lost $141 billion of revenue from all sources in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) due to the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns. Under three scenarios of increasing severity, the author estimates that state and local governments will need to cut expenditures by between $59 billion and $350 billion in fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset impending loses of revenue.
{"title":"How Much Help Do State and Local Governments Need? Updated Estimates of Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation","authors":"S. Whitaker","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200629","url":null,"abstract":"In this data brief, the author estimates that state and local governments have lost $141 billion of revenue from all sources in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) due to the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns. Under three scenarios of increasing severity, the author estimates that state and local governments will need to cut expenditures by between $59 billion and $350 billion in fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset impending loses of revenue.","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123116095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-08DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200408
Joel A. Elvery
Relying on confirmed cases to compare the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries has significant limitations. Measuring mortality rates and their percentage changes proves to be a superior way to track the progression of the disease. The method shows that, as of April 5, the epidemic in the United States has a similar mortality rate to those in Europe and is more deadly than in China and South Korea.
{"title":"Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes","authors":"Joel A. Elvery","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200408","url":null,"abstract":"Relying on confirmed cases to compare the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries has significant limitations. Measuring mortality rates and their percentage changes proves to be a superior way to track the progression of the disease. The method shows that, as of April 5, the epidemic in the United States has a similar mortality rate to those in Europe and is more deadly than in China and South Korea.","PeriodicalId":395420,"journal":{"name":"Cleveland Fed District Data Briefs","volume":"33 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141215848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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