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Modeling of COVID-19 propagation with compartment models. 利用分区模型对 COVID-19 的传播进行建模。
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-11-03 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-021-00312-9
Günter Bärwolff

The current pandemic is a great challenge for several research areas. In addition to virology research, mathematical models and simulations can be a valuable contribution to the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic and can give recommendations to both physicians and politicians. In this paper we give an overview about mathematical models to describe the pandemic by differential equations. As a matter of principle the historic origin of the epidemic growth models will be remembered. Moreover we discuss models for the actual pandemic of 2020/2021. This will be done based on actual data of people infected with COVID-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), input parameters of mathematical models will be determined and applied. These parameters will be estimated for the UK, Italy, Spain, and Germany and used in a SIR-type model. As a basis for the model's calibration, the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the named countries is used. Strategies for the commencing and ending of social and economic shutdown measures are discussed. To respect heterogeneity of the people density in the different federal states of Germany diffusion effects are considered.

当前的大流行病对多个研究领域都是一个巨大的挑战。除了病毒学研究外,数学模型和模拟也能为了解大流行病的动态做出宝贵贡献,并为医生和政治家提供建议。本文概述了用微分方程描述大流行病的数学模型。原则上,我们将回顾流行病增长模型的历史渊源。此外,我们还将讨论 2020/2021 年实际流行病的模型。我们将根据欧洲疾病预防和控制中心(ECDC)提供的 COVID-19 感染者的实际数据,确定并应用数学模型的输入参数。将为英国、意大利、西班牙和德国估算这些参数,并将其用于 SIR 型模型。作为模型校准的基础,将使用 COVID-19 大流行在上述国家的初始指数增长阶段。讨论了社会和经济关闭措施的开始和结束策略。为尊重德国不同联邦州人口密度的异质性,考虑了扩散效应。
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引用次数: 0
Neue Erkenntnisse über die Abstammung Georg Cantors 格奥尔格·坎托家族的新见解
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00289-x
G. Singer
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引用次数: 0
Statistical independence in mathematics–the key to a Gaussian law 数学中的统计独立性——高斯定律的关键
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00287-z
G. Leobacher, J. Prochno
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引用次数: 0
Kirsti Andersen: Optical Illusions in Rome – A Mathematical Travel Guide 科斯蒂·安徒生:罗马的光学错觉——数学旅行指南
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00284-2
K. Hofmann
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引用次数: 0
Adolf Hurwitz, Geometer 阿道夫·赫维茨,几何学家
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-07-17 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00281-5
K. Volkert
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引用次数: 1
Fabio Toscano: The Secret Formula – How a Mathematical Duel Inflamed Renaissance Italy and Uncovered the Cubic Equation 法比奥·托斯卡诺:秘密公式-数学决斗如何点燃文艺复兴时期的意大利并揭示了三次方程
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00283-3
J. Hilgert
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引用次数: 0
Four rational squares in arithmetic progressions and a family of elliptic curves with positive Mordell-Weil rank 等差数列中的四个有理平方和一类正莫德尔-韦尔秩的椭圆曲线
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00279-z
H. Knaf, Erich Selder, K. Spindler
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引用次数: 0
Buchbesprechung 书评
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-06-22 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00282-4
J. Hilgert
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引用次数: 0
David M. Bressoud: Calculus Reordered – A History of the Big Ideas 大卫-M-布莱苏德重新排序的微积分--大思想史
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00280-6
J. Hilgert
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引用次数: 0
David M. Bressoud: Calculus Reordered – A History of the Big Ideas 大卫-M-布莱苏德重新排序的微积分--大思想史
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00591-020-00280-6
J. Hilgert
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引用次数: 0
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Mathematische Semesterberichte
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