In February 2022 Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine. Since then, Europe in general and Ukraine in particular have been plunged into a situation of great uncertainty. Many forecasts have been made to try to find certainties in a world that has more doubts than certainties. Much of Europe's future depends on Ukraine and, above all, on how the war with Russia ends. This paper will therefore attempt to draw three scenarios of Russia's future based on the following five factors: the war in Ukraine, Putin's situation, the Russian economy, sanctions and social peace in Russia. A prospective methodology will be used based on a previous analysis of Russia's participation in the wars in which it has taken sides. These scenarios will serve to show the consequences of a Russian defeat on the Ukrainian front, not only for Russia and Ukraine but also for the rest of the world.
{"title":"La evolución de Rusia tras la Guerra en Ucrania: tres posibles escenarios","authors":"A. Priego","doi":"10.18847/1.19.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.10","url":null,"abstract":"In February 2022 Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine. Since then, Europe in general and Ukraine in particular have been plunged into a situation of great uncertainty. Many forecasts have been made to try to find certainties in a world that has more doubts than certainties. Much of Europe's future depends on Ukraine and, above all, on how the war with Russia ends. This paper will therefore attempt to draw three scenarios of Russia's future based on the following five factors: the war in Ukraine, Putin's situation, the Russian economy, sanctions and social peace in Russia. A prospective methodology will be used based on a previous analysis of Russia's participation in the wars in which it has taken sides. These scenarios will serve to show the consequences of a Russian defeat on the Ukrainian front, not only for Russia and Ukraine but also for the rest of the world.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 35","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141368391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, international law has become a center piece in Ukraine’s war efforts. The Hyper response of legal and other international institutions have prompted some to call these developments as the “Ukraine moment”. The term suggests that the legal response to the war represents, potentially, a transformative moment for international law in its pursuit of justice. Focusing on the crime of aggression, the aim of this article is to answer the question whether the international response to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine symbolizes genuinely a transformative international law moment.
{"title":"Prosecuting Russia’s Crime of Aggression: A critical reflection","authors":"Sonia Boulos","doi":"10.18847/1.19.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.11","url":null,"abstract":"Since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, international law has become a center piece in Ukraine’s war efforts. The Hyper response of legal and other international institutions have prompted some to call these developments as the “Ukraine moment”. The term suggests that the legal response to the war represents, potentially, a transformative moment for international law in its pursuit of justice. Focusing on the crime of aggression, the aim of this article is to answer the question whether the international response to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine symbolizes genuinely a transformative international law moment.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The conflict in Ukraine it is a new challenge for the EU insofar as Ukrainian President Zelenski's application for EU membership on 28 February 2022 had direct and indirect consequences for the EU's future. Three days later, Georgia and Moldova submitted similar applications. In a period of less than four months, at the European Council of 23-24 June 2022, EU leaders decided to grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status and recognized Georgia's “European perspective”, a step towards formal candidacy. Never have EU countries reacted affirmatively so quickly to an application for EU membership, but behind the EU's swift response in adopting a new enlargement project was a geopolitical logic strategy, and there is no doubt that this was a historic decision it could not avoid. Issues arising from the complex accession process and the possible options will be addressed in this article.
{"title":"La ampliación de la Unión Europea tras el conflicto de Ucrania","authors":"Jordi Regi","doi":"10.18847/1.19.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.9","url":null,"abstract":"The conflict in Ukraine it is a new challenge for the EU insofar as Ukrainian President Zelenski's application for EU membership on 28 February 2022 had direct and indirect consequences for the EU's future. Three days later, Georgia and Moldova submitted similar applications. In a period of less than four months, at the European Council of 23-24 June 2022, EU leaders decided to grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status and recognized Georgia's “European perspective”, a step towards formal candidacy. Never have EU countries reacted affirmatively so quickly to an application for EU membership, but behind the EU's swift response in adopting a new enlargement project was a geopolitical logic strategy, and there is no doubt that this was a historic decision it could not avoid. Issues arising from the complex accession process and the possible options will be addressed in this article.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an extraordinarily serious violation of the prohibition on the use of force that was embodied in Article 2.4 of the UN Charter after a long historical process. The fact that it was perpetrated by one of the permanent members of the Security Council implies a breach of the consensus among the Allies in World War II that gave rise to the United Nations and the system of international peacekeeping and security that it brought with it. The final outcome of the war in Ukraine may mean that the blow to the system of collective security envisaged in the Charter may be fatal, should the outcome be favourable to Russian interests, or that, despite being badly damaged, it may continue to exist, should the final outcome of the conflict be favourable to Ukrainian interests.
{"title":"Repercussions of the end of the war in Ukraine for the United Nations Security System","authors":"Carlos Espaliú","doi":"10.18847/1.19.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.2","url":null,"abstract":"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an extraordinarily serious violation of the prohibition on the use of force that was embodied in Article 2.4 of the UN Charter after a long historical process. The fact that it was perpetrated by one of the permanent members of the Security Council implies a breach of the consensus among the Allies in World War II that gave rise to the United Nations and the system of international peacekeeping and security that it brought with it. The final outcome of the war in Ukraine may mean that the blow to the system of collective security envisaged in the Charter may be fatal, should the outcome be favourable to Russian interests, or that, despite being badly damaged, it may continue to exist, should the final outcome of the conflict be favourable to Ukrainian interests.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 35","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After the end of the Cold War, NATO went through a deep transformation regarding its composition, goals, actions and geographical reach. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in the past two years has made NATO focus again on its traditional functions: deterrence and defense of its members. The article examines the variables and factors on which the future role of NATO will depend.
{"title":"Retrospectiva, incógnitas y conjeturas: imaginando la OTAN tras la guerra de Ucrania","authors":"Carlos López","doi":"10.18847/1.19.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.7","url":null,"abstract":"After the end of the Cold War, NATO went through a deep transformation regarding its composition, goals, actions and geographical reach. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in the past two years has made NATO focus again on its traditional functions: deterrence and defense of its members. The article examines the variables and factors on which the future role of NATO will depend.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141366352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The War in Ukraine has had international order implications, deepening previously existing fault lines between West and East (Leoni & Tzinieris, 2024). As China’s grand strategy does also have an impact on the international order, the conflict in Eastern Europe provides an opportunity to pause and reflect on what this means from a perspective of China’s engagement with the world. While the literature on Chinese grand strategy has been prolific in recent years, lessons from Ukraine have yet to be captured in a systematic manner. Hence, this article examines China’s behaviour in relation to the war in Ukraine to evaluate whether this case study offers valuable insights into China’s grand strategy and foreign policy. The contribution concludes that the war in Ukraine has confirmed that China is not yet willing or capable of taking a role of leadership over international controversies, and thus is not directly challenging US hegemony. However, it is actively seeking to build a sphere of interests that involves non-Western countries and the developing world, as highlighted by our discourse analysis of the communications on the “Ukraine issue” from the Foreign Ministry through its spokespersons. To assess whether there is evidence that the war in Ukraine has provided China with an opportunity to pursue a hegemonic project and whether it has been successful at it so far, the article adopts a critical IR approach and delves into the study of communications by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespeople on the “Ukraine issue” as key to building a hegemonic discourse. Articles published from the 24th of February 2022 until the 24th of February 2024 have been extracted from the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China and imported into software for qualitative and mixed methods data analysis to examine keywords’ frequency and correlations.
{"title":"China: New Hegemonic Power after the War in Ukraine?","authors":"Zeno Leoni, Veronica Strina","doi":"10.18847/1.19.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.5","url":null,"abstract":"The War in Ukraine has had international order implications, deepening previously existing fault lines between West and East (Leoni & Tzinieris, 2024). As China’s grand strategy does also have an impact on the international order, the conflict in Eastern Europe provides an opportunity to pause and reflect on what this means from a perspective of China’s engagement with the world. While the literature on Chinese grand strategy has been prolific in recent years, lessons from Ukraine have yet to be captured in a systematic manner. Hence, this article examines China’s behaviour in relation to the war in Ukraine to evaluate whether this case study offers valuable insights into China’s grand strategy and foreign policy. The contribution concludes that the war in Ukraine has confirmed that China is not yet willing or capable of taking a role of leadership over international controversies, and thus is not directly challenging US hegemony. However, it is actively seeking to build a sphere of interests that involves non-Western countries and the developing world, as highlighted by our discourse analysis of the communications on the “Ukraine issue” from the Foreign Ministry through its spokespersons. To assess whether there is evidence that the war in Ukraine has provided China with an opportunity to pursue a hegemonic project and whether it has been successful at it so far, the article adopts a critical IR approach and delves into the study of communications by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespeople on the “Ukraine issue” as key to building a hegemonic discourse. Articles published from the 24th of February 2022 until the 24th of February 2024 have been extracted from the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China and imported into software for qualitative and mixed methods data analysis to examine keywords’ frequency and correlations.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 44","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2014 the Russian armed forces successfully invaded the Crimean peninsula without firing hardly a single shot. The allegedly same armed forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022 with a significantly different result. The poor operational effectiveness displayed by these armed forces leads to many questions about which have been the causes of this failure. This article aims to get into this analysis, specifically in the year 2022, for being that year the center of our interest, while delving into the little-revealed role played by the Russian air force.
{"title":"Conflicto en Ucrania. Cuando la estrategia híbrida no funciona","authors":"J. M. Martínez","doi":"10.18847/1.19.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.4","url":null,"abstract":"In 2014 the Russian armed forces successfully invaded the Crimean peninsula without firing hardly a single shot. The allegedly same armed forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022 with a significantly different result. The poor operational effectiveness displayed by these armed forces leads to many questions about which have been the causes of this failure. This article aims to get into this analysis, specifically in the year 2022, for being that year the center of our interest, while delving into the little-revealed role played by the Russian air force.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 23","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The evolution of the European Union, far from being linear, is undoubtedly a story of laudable advances and resounding setbacks. This uneven evolution is particularly visible in the area of security and defence. Thus, if on the one hand the Treaty of Amsterdam was followed by years of great advances such as those that materialised in Saint Malo, Helsinki, Cologne, Santa Maria de Feira and Lisbon, then the triple shock of the Iraq War, the financial crisis and the COVID 19 pandemic led to a period of deadlock and a substantial darkening of the outlook. However, this situation would not be in doubt forever because a new war, in Ukraine, perceived as a fundamental strategic change that challenged the interests and values of the Union, was to awaken Europeans and generate a new momentum in terms of security and defence, allowing for a more determined search for greater strategic autonomy with all that this entails. This momentum is further boosted by the fact that the EU's easternmost member states, traditionally more reticent in this area, being the most affected by the renewed Russian threat, may start to be much less so. In these conditions, the enlargement debate is even reopened, opening the door to states that, if they are able to meet the preceptive requirements for accession, could in some cases constitute an undoubted asset for the security and defence of the EU as a whole.
{"title":"Lecciones para la PCSD tras la Guerra en Ucrania","authors":"Gracia Abad","doi":"10.18847/1.19.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.8","url":null,"abstract":"The evolution of the European Union, far from being linear, is undoubtedly a story of laudable advances and resounding setbacks. This uneven evolution is particularly visible in the area of security and defence. Thus, if on the one hand the Treaty of Amsterdam was followed by years of great advances such as those that materialised in Saint Malo, Helsinki, Cologne, Santa Maria de Feira and Lisbon, then the triple shock of the Iraq War, the financial crisis and the COVID 19 pandemic led to a period of deadlock and a substantial darkening of the outlook. However, this situation would not be in doubt forever because a new war, in Ukraine, perceived as a fundamental strategic change that challenged the interests and values of the Union, was to awaken Europeans and generate a new momentum in terms of security and defence, allowing for a more determined search for greater strategic autonomy with all that this entails. This momentum is further boosted by the fact that the EU's easternmost member states, traditionally more reticent in this area, being the most affected by the renewed Russian threat, may start to be much less so. In these conditions, the enlargement debate is even reopened, opening the door to states that, if they are able to meet the preceptive requirements for accession, could in some cases constitute an undoubted asset for the security and defence of the EU as a whole.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The largest European war since World War II is a natural source of lessons for any army. In the following study we offer a list of its military strategic lessons through the analysis of the known history.
{"title":"Lecciones militares estratégicas de la Guerra de Ucrania","authors":"Y. Rodríguez","doi":"10.18847/1.19.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.3","url":null,"abstract":"The largest European war since World War II is a natural source of lessons for any army. In the following study we offer a list of its military strategic lessons through the analysis of the known history.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this article, we start from the idea that we are not yet facing a redefinition of the world order created after the Second World War and the Cold War. Now, we find ourselves facing a profound questioning of the system and shifts in the balance of power that seem to show us the end of an era. The world order (or disorder) of the 21st century in which we find ourselves is marked by elements that introduce uncertainty and insecurity. Economic recession, pandemic, war, various crisis, slowdown of globalization (or perhaps deglobalization) … make a complex and disordered world. Above all these elements mentioned, the war in Ukraine represents a decisive moment for the construction of a new world order. The concept of Pax Americana is debatable and has been discussed widely, as we will discuss in our article. If we consider the term from the perspective of the supremacy of the United States in the international system, there is no doubt that the world order of the 20th century has been marked by American power, the end of the pax Americana would give rise to a new world order. The international liberal order would have ended and a new “post-Western” order would be being built. But what kind of order? The replacement of the pax Americana and, therefore, of the Western liberal order, is still imprecise. In conclusion, the objectives of our article are: to analyze the evolution of the concept of Pax Americana, understood as a symbol of the hegemony of the United States and the West in the world, to analyze the crisis context of said hegemony and, finally, to analyze the different paths of change in the international system, based on the fact that it is in a phase of transition and transformation that is still uncertain.
{"title":"El final de la Pax americana. La evolución del sistema internacional. Los nuevos equilibrios","authors":"Adela Alija","doi":"10.18847/1.19.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18847/1.19.6","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we start from the idea that we are not yet facing a redefinition of the world order created after the Second World War and the Cold War. Now, we find ourselves facing a profound questioning of the system and shifts in the balance of power that seem to show us the end of an era. The world order (or disorder) of the 21st century in which we find ourselves is marked by elements that introduce uncertainty and insecurity. Economic recession, pandemic, war, various crisis, slowdown of globalization (or perhaps deglobalization) … make a complex and disordered world. Above all these elements mentioned, the war in Ukraine represents a decisive moment for the construction of a new world order. The concept of Pax Americana is debatable and has been discussed widely, as we will discuss in our article. If we consider the term from the perspective of the supremacy of the United States in the international system, there is no doubt that the world order of the 20th century has been marked by American power, the end of the pax Americana would give rise to a new world order. The international liberal order would have ended and a new “post-Western” order would be being built. But what kind of order? The replacement of the pax Americana and, therefore, of the Western liberal order, is still imprecise. In conclusion, the objectives of our article are: to analyze the evolution of the concept of Pax Americana, understood as a symbol of the hegemony of the United States and the West in the world, to analyze the crisis context of said hegemony and, finally, to analyze the different paths of change in the international system, based on the fact that it is in a phase of transition and transformation that is still uncertain.","PeriodicalId":411681,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional","volume":" 56","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141367733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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