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A note on asymptotic properties of time series models with a trend break 具有趋势中断的时间序列模型的渐近性质
Pub Date : 2021-09-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3917796
Daisuke Yamazaki
In this paper, we re-analyze Perron and Zhu's (2005) asymptotic properties of time series models with a break in trend. We prove that, for the model with a joint broken trend with stationary errors, their results do not hold when the break magnitude is fixed. Furthermore, we show that the "shrinking shift'' asymptotic framework is necessary to establish these results. Simulation results illustrate that the finite sample approximation based on the proposed asymptotic theory works well.
在本文中,我们重新分析Perron和Zhu(2005)的趋势中断的时间序列模型的渐近性质。我们证明了,对于具有平稳误差的具有关节断裂趋势的模型,当断裂幅度固定时,他们的结果不成立。此外,我们证明了“收缩位移”渐近框架是建立这些结果的必要条件。仿真结果表明,基于渐近理论的有限样本近似是有效的。
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引用次数: 0
Two-Way Fixed Effects, the Two-Way Mundlak Regression, and Difference-in-Differences Estimators 双向固定效应,双向Mundlak回归和差中差估计
Pub Date : 2021-08-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906345
J. Wooldridge
I establish the equivalence between the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator and an estimator obtained from a pooled ordinary least squares regression that includes unit-specific time averages and time-period specific cross-sectional averages, which I call the two-way Mundlak (TWM) regression. This equivalence furthers our understanding of the anatomy of TWFE, and has several applications. The equivalence between TWFE and TWM implies that various estimators used for intervention analysis – with a common entry time into treatment or staggered entry, with or without covariates – can be computed using TWFE or pooled OLS regressions that control for time-constant treatment intensities, covariates, and interactions between them. The approach allows considerable heterogeneity in treatment effects across treatment intensity, calendar time, and covariates. The equivalence implies that standard strategies for heterogeneous trends are available to relax the common trends assumption. Further, the two-way Mundlak regression is easily adapted to nonlinear models such as exponential models and logit and probit models.
我建立了双向固定效应(TWFE)估计量和从包含单位特定时间平均值和时间段特定横截面平均值的普通最小二乘回归中获得的估计量之间的等效性,我称之为双向蒙德拉克(TWM)回归。这种等效性进一步加深了我们对TWFE结构的理解,并有几个应用。TWFE和TWM之间的等价性意味着用于干预分析的各种估计量——有共同的进入治疗时间或交错进入治疗时间,有或没有协变量——可以使用TWFE或混合OLS回归来计算,这些回归控制了时间常数治疗强度、协变量和它们之间的相互作用。该方法允许治疗效果在治疗强度、日历时间和协变量之间存在相当大的异质性。这种等价性意味着异质趋势的标准策略可以放松共同趋势的假设。此外,双向Mundlak回归很容易适用于非线性模型,如指数模型和logit和probit模型。
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引用次数: 123
Regression-Adjusted Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations 协变量自适应随机化下分位数治疗效果的回归校正估计
Pub Date : 2021-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3873937
Liang Jiang, P. Phillips, Yubo Tao, Yichong Zhang
This paper examines regression-adjusted estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). Datasets from field experiments usually contain extra baseline covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these extra covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional QTEs. The auxiliary regression may be estimated parametrically, nonparametrically, or via regularization when the data are high-dimensional. Even when the auxiliary regression is misspecified, the proposed bootstrap inferential procedure still achieves the nominal rejection probability in the limit under the null for various CARs. When the auxiliary regression is correctly specified, the regression-adjusted estimator achieves the minimum asymptotic variance. We also derive the optimal pseudo true values for the potentially misspecified parametric model that minimize the asymptotic variance of the corresponding QTE estimator.
本文研究了协变量自适应随机化(CARs)条件下无条件分位数处理效应(qte)的回归校正估计和推断。现场实验数据集除了地层指标外,通常还包含额外的基线协变量。我们建议通过辅助回归将这些额外的协变量纳入无条件qte的估计和推断中。当数据是高维时,辅助回归可以参数化、非参数化或通过正则化来估计。即使在辅助回归被错误指定的情况下,所提出的自举推理过程仍然在各种car在null下的极限内达到标称拒绝概率。当正确指定辅助回归时,回归调整估计量达到最小渐近方差。我们还推导了潜在错误参数模型的最优伪真值,使相应QTE估计量的渐近方差最小化。
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引用次数: 5
Deep Structural Estimation: With an Application to Option Pricing 深层结构估计:及其在期权定价中的应用
Pub Date : 2021-02-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3782722
Hui Chen, Antoine Didisheim, S. Scheidegger
We propose a novel structural estimation framework in which we train a surrogate of an economic model with deep neural networks. Our methodology alleviates the curse of dimensionality and speeds up the evaluation and parameter estimation by orders of magnitudes, which significantly enhances one's ability to conduct analyses that require frequent parameter re-estimation. As an empirical application, we compare two popular option pricing models (the Heston and the Bates model with double-exponential jumps) against a non-parametric random forest model. We document that: a) the Bates model produces better out-of-sample pricing on average, but both structural models fail to outperform random forest for large areas of the volatility surface; b) random forest is more competitive at short horizons (e.g., 1-day), for short-dated options (with less than 7 days to maturity), and on days with poor liquidity; c) both structural models outperform random forest in out-of-sample delta hedging; d) the Heston model's relative performance has deteriorated significantly after the 2008 financial crisis.
我们提出了一种新的结构估计框架,其中我们用深度神经网络训练一个经济模型的代理。我们的方法减轻了维数的困扰,并将评估和参数估计的速度提高了几个数量级,从而显著提高了需要频繁重新估计参数的分析的能力。作为一个实证应用,我们比较了两种流行的期权定价模型(赫斯顿和贝茨模型双指数跳跃)与非参数随机森林模型。我们证明:a)贝茨模型平均产生更好的样本外定价,但两种结构模型在波动面大面积上都不能优于随机森林;B)随机森林在短期(例如1天)、短期期权(距离到期不到7天)和流动性差的日子更具竞争力;C)两种结构模型在样本外三角洲对冲中都优于随机森林;(4) 2008年金融危机后,赫斯顿模型的相对表现明显恶化。
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引用次数: 6
Estimations and Inferences of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Using Raw Data 使用原始数据的动态随机一般均衡模型的估计和推论
Pub Date : 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3780223
Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo
Estimators of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model parameters, as well as impulse response functions, can be wildly inaccurate when data used in the estimation process are de-trended; even if the data are de-trended in the same manner, the model is de-trended. However, little is known about inferences of DSGE parameters and impulse response functions when raw data are used. This may be attributable to difficulties in applying the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem on sample means or functions of sample means when data are not derived from stationary processes. The good news for DSGE models is that the equilibrium conditions, represented by the first-order conditions of agent problems used to build the impulse response functions, are usually written as a non-linear combination of stationary variables at the true value of the parameters. In this study, we exploited that property to suggest the conditions under which the generalized method of moments (GMM), the indirect inference (II) estimators, and the minimum chi-square estimators are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian distributions. We also suggested procedures and conditions under which the GMM bootstrap, the indirect inference bootstrap, and the minimum chi-square bootstrap for DSGE model parameters are valid. For empirical application, we used U.S. data to assess the impulse response functions -- due respectively to money supply shock, government spending shock, and productivity shock -- in a DSGE framework in which the Federal Reserve Bank set the policy rate that controlled the raw value of the nominal gross domestic product. This empirical analysis would have been very difficult without our theoretical results.
动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型参数的估计器,以及脉冲响应函数,在估计过程中使用的数据是去趋势的,可能是非常不准确的;即使数据以同样的方式去趋势化,模型也是去趋势化的。然而,当使用原始数据时,对DSGE参数和脉冲响应函数的推断知之甚少。这可能是由于当数据不是从平稳过程中获得时,难以将大数定律和中心极限定理应用于样本均值或样本均值函数。对于DSGE模型来说,好消息是平衡条件,由用于构建脉冲响应函数的代理问题的一阶条件表示,通常被写成在参数真值处的平稳变量的非线性组合。在本研究中,我们利用这一性质,给出了广义矩量法(GMM)、间接推理(II)估计量和最小卡方估计量是一致且渐近高斯分布的条件。我们还提出了GMM自举、间接推理自举和最小卡方自举对DSGE模型参数有效的程序和条件。对于实证应用,我们使用美国的数据来评估脉冲响应函数-分别由于货币供应冲击,政府支出冲击和生产率冲击-在DSGE框架中,联邦储备银行设定控制名义国内生产总值原始值的政策利率。如果没有我们的理论结果,这个实证分析将是非常困难的。
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引用次数: 0
The Size-Power Tradeoff in HAR Inference HAR推理中的大小-功率权衡
Pub Date : 2021-01-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3436372
Eben Lazarus, D. Lewis, J. Stock
Heteroskedasticity‐ and autocorrelation‐robust (HAR) inference in time series regression typically involves kernel estimation of the long‐run variance. Conventional wisdom holds that, for a given kernel, the choice of truncation parameter trades off a test's null rejection rate and power, and that this tradeoff differs across kernels. We formalize this intuition: using higher‐order expansions, we provide a unified size‐power frontier for both kernel and weighted orthonormal series tests using nonstandard “fixed‐ b” critical values. We also provide a frontier for the subset of these tests for which the fixed‐ b distribution is t or F. These frontiers are respectively achieved by the QS kernel and equal‐weighted periodogram. The frontiers have simple closed‐form expressions, which show that the price paid for restricting attention to tests with t and F critical values is small. The frontiers are derived for the Gaussian multivariate location model, but simulations suggest the qualitative findings extend to stochastic regressors.
时间序列回归中的异方差和自相关鲁棒性(HAR)推断通常涉及对长期方差的核估计。传统观点认为,对于给定的内核,截断参数的选择权衡了测试的零拒绝率和功率,并且这种权衡在不同的内核中是不同的。我们将这种直觉形式化:使用高阶展开式,我们使用非标准的“固定b”临界值为核和加权正交级数检验提供了统一的尺寸-功率边界。我们还为这些测试的子集提供了一个边界,其中固定b分布为t或f。这些边界分别由QS核和等权周期图实现。边界具有简单的封闭形式表达式,这表明将注意力限制在具有t和F临界值的测试上所付出的代价很小。边界是为高斯多变量定位模型导出的,但模拟表明定性结果扩展到随机回归。
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引用次数: 34
Robust Estimation of Probit Models with Endogeneity 内生性概率模型的鲁棒估计
Pub Date : 2020-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3766318
A. Naghi, Máté Váradi, Mikhail Zhelonkin
Probit models with endogenous regressors are commonly used models in economics and other social sciences. Yet, the robustness properties of parametric estimators in these models have not been formally studied. In this paper, we derive the influence functions of the endogenous probit model’s classical estimators (the maximum likelihood and the two-step estimator) and prove their non-robustness to small but harmful deviations from distributional assumptions. We propose a procedure to obtain a robust alternative estimator, prove its asymptotic normality and provide its asymptotic variance. A simple robust test for endogeneity is also constructed. We compare the performance of the robust and classical estimators in Monte Carlo simulations with different types of contamination scenarios. The use of our estimator is illustrated in several empirical applications.
具有内生回归量的概率模型是经济学和其他社会科学中常用的模型。然而,这些模型中参数估计量的鲁棒性尚未得到正式研究。本文推导了内生概率模型的经典估计量(极大似然估计量和两步估计量)的影响函数,并证明了它们对偏离分布假设的小而有害的偏差具有非鲁棒性。给出了一个鲁棒备用估计量的获取、渐近正态性的证明和渐近方差的给出。构造了一个简单的内生性鲁棒检验。在蒙特卡罗模拟中,我们比较了鲁棒估计器和经典估计器在不同污染情况下的性能。在几个经验应用中说明了我们的估计量的使用。
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引用次数: 0
Estimations of the Conditional Tail Average Treatment Effect 条件尾平均处理效果的估计
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3740489
Le‐Yu Chen, Yu-Min Yen
We study estimation of the conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE), defined as a difference between conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes. The CTATE can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information of treatment effects over different quantile levels, and is closely related to the notion of second order stochastic dominance and the Lorenz curve. These properties render it a valuable tool for policy evaluations. We consider a semiparametric treatment effect framework under endogeneity for the CTATE estimation using a newly introduced class of consistent loss functions jointly for the conditioanl tail expectation and quantile. We establish asymptotic theory of our proposed CTATE estimator and provide an efficient algorithm for its implementation. We then apply the method to the evaluation of effects from participating in programs of the Job Training Partnership Act in the US.
我们研究了条件尾平均治疗效果(CTATE)的估计,它被定义为潜在结果的条件尾期望之间的差异。CTATE可以捕获异质性并提供不同分位数水平上治疗效果的汇总局部信息,并且与二阶随机优势和洛伦兹曲线的概念密切相关。这些属性使其成为策略评估的重要工具。我们考虑了一种内质性下的半参数处理效果框架,该框架使用新引入的一类一致损失函数联合用于条件尾期望和分位数的CTATE估计。我们建立了所提出的CTATE估计量的渐近理论,并提供了一个有效的实现算法。然后,我们将该方法应用于评估参与美国《就业培训伙伴法》项目的效果。
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引用次数: 1
Quadratic Shrinkage for Large Covariance Matrices 大协方差矩阵的二次收缩
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3486378
Olivier Ledoit, Michael Wolf
This paper constructs a new estimator for large covariance matrices by drawing a bridge between the classic Stein (1975) estimator in finite samples and recent progress under large-dimensional asymptotics. The estimator keeps the eigenvectors of the sample covariance matrix and applies shrinkage to the inverse sample eigenvalues. The corresponding formula is quadratic: it has two shrinkage targets weighted by quadratic functions of the concentration (that is, matrix dimension divided by sample size). The first target dominates mid-level concentrations and the second one higher levels. This extra degree of freedom enables us to outperform linear shrinkage when optimal shrinkage is not linear (which is the general case). Both of our targets are based on what we term the “Stein shrinker”, a local attraction operator that pulls sample covariance matrix eigenvalues towards their nearest neighbors, but whose force diminishes with distance, like gravitation. We prove that no cubic or higher-order nonlinearities beat quadratic with respect to Frobenius loss under large-dimensional asymptotics. Non-normality and the case where the matrix dimension exceeds the sample size are accommodated. Monte Carlo simulations confirm state-of-the-art performance in terms of accuracy, speed, and scalability.
本文通过在有限样本下经典的Stein(1975)估计量与高维渐近下的最新进展之间架起桥梁,构造了一个新的大协方差矩阵估计量。估计器保留样本协方差矩阵的特征向量,并对逆样本特征值进行收缩。相应的公式为二次式:有两个收缩目标,分别用浓度的二次函数(即矩阵维数除以样本量)加权。第一个目标占中等浓度,第二个目标占较高浓度。这种额外的自由度使我们能够在最佳收缩不是线性的情况下(这是一般情况)优于线性收缩。我们的两个目标都基于我们所说的“斯坦因收缩器”,这是一种局部吸引算子,它将样本协方差矩阵特征值拉向最近的邻居,但其力会随着距离而减弱,就像引力一样。证明了在大维渐近条件下,三次或高阶非线性的Frobenius损失不优于二次。非正态性和矩阵尺寸超过样本量的情况是可以接受的。蒙特卡罗模拟在准确性、速度和可扩展性方面证实了最先进的性能。
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引用次数: 22
A Multi-Step Kernel – Based Regression Estimator That Adapts to Error Distributions of Unknown Form 一种适应未知形式误差分布的多步核回归估计器
Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3532384
J. De Gooijer, Hugo Reichardt
For linear regression models, we propose and study a multi-step kernel density-based estimator that is adaptive to unknown error distributions. We establish asymptotic normality and almost sure convergence. An efficient EM algorithm is provided to implement the proposed estimator. We also compare its finite sample performance with five other adaptive estimators in an extensive Monte Carlo study of eight error distributions. Our method generally attains high mean-square-error efficiency. An empirical example illustrates the gain in efficiency of the new adaptive method when making statistical inference about the slope parameters in three linear regressions.
对于线性回归模型,我们提出并研究了一种多步核密度估计器,该估计器可适应未知误差分布。我们建立了渐近正态性和几乎确定收敛性。给出了一种有效的EM算法来实现所提出的估计。我们还比较了它的有限样本性能与其他五个自适应估计器在广泛的蒙特卡罗研究八个误差分布。我们的方法通常具有较高的均方误差效率。实例表明,在对三种线性回归的斜率参数进行统计推断时,这种自适应方法的效率有所提高。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Estimation (Topic)
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