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The Dynamics of Linkages Between Major Currencies: How Does It Change Depending on the Time of Day? 主要货币之间联系的动态:它是如何随时间变化的?
Małgorzata Doman, R. Doman
In this paper we document how the dynamics of linkages between major exchange rates changes during a day, depending on the activity of different groups of traders, and show the impact of important events and news on the dependence structures. The subject of analysis are linkages between the exchange rates EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD. For each hour of the day, we model the conditional dependence between the daily returns calculated at that time. The analysis is performed separately for bid and ask prices, which enables us to obtain some results concerning the sellers and buyers behavior. The dynamics of the conditional dependence is modeled by means of bivariate Markov-switching copula models, and the strength of the linkages is described by means of dynamic Spearman’s rho coefficients. The rankings of the strength of the linkages, depending on the hour, which we obtain using the model confidence set methodology, can be useful in trade decision-making in the FOREX market.
在本文中,我们记录了主要汇率之间的联系动态如何在一天内变化,取决于不同交易者群体的活动,并显示了重要事件和新闻对依赖结构的影响。分析的主题是欧元/美元、澳元/美元、英镑/美元和纽元/美元之间的汇率联系。对于一天中的每一个小时,我们建立了当时计算的每日收益之间的条件依赖关系模型。对买入价和卖出价分别进行分析,这使我们能够获得有关卖者和买者行为的一些结果。利用二元马尔可夫切换copula模型建立了条件依赖的动力学模型,并用动态Spearman系数描述了连杆的强度。我们使用模型置信集方法获得的联系强度的排名取决于小时,这在外汇市场的交易决策中是有用的。
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引用次数: 1
How Does the Conditional Quantile Dependence in the FOREX Market Change Depending on the Time of Day? Analysis Based on Ask and Bid Prices 外汇市场的条件分位数依赖性如何随时间变化?基于卖出价的分析
Małgorzata Doman, R. Doman
In the paper, we show that estimates of the strength of linkages between the exchange rates EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD below small or above large quantiles de-pend on the time of day, at which the daily returns are calculated. We argue that this is due to the activity of traders in different parts of the world, and the impact of the information flow. We use daily returns calculated for each hour of the day. The analysis is performed separately for bid and ask prices. We model the conditional dependence by means of bivari-ate Markov-switching copula models. Then, quantile dependence probabilities are calculated for the fitted conditional copulas. The models include copulas that can capture different types of asymmetry and tail behavior. Our results show that the applied dynamic dependence measures change significantly, depending on the hour of the day. The rankings of the strength of the dependence below small or above large quantiles, which we obtain using the model confidence set methodology, can be useful in portfolio risk management.
在本文中,我们表明,欧元/美元、澳元/美元、英镑/美元和新西兰元/美元汇率之间的联系强度的估计低于小分位数或高于大分位数,取决于一天中的时间,即计算每日收益的时间。我们认为,这是由于交易者在世界不同地区的活动,以及信息流的影响。我们使用按每天每小时计算的日收益。对买入价和卖出价分别进行分析。我们用双变量马尔可夫切换联结模型对条件依赖性进行了建模。然后,计算拟合条件copula的分位数相关概率。这些模型包括可以捕捉不同类型的不对称和尾部行为的copulas。我们的研究结果表明,应用的动态依赖度量显着变化,取决于一天中的时间。我们使用模型置信集方法获得的小分位数以下或大分位数以上的依赖强度排名在投资组合风险管理中是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Moment Approximations of Displaced Forward-LIBOR Rates with Application to Swaptions 位移远期libor利率的矩逼近及其在掉期交易中的应用
Jacques van Appel, Thomas Andrew McWalter
We present an algorithm to approximate moments for forward rates under a displaced lognormal forward-LIBOR model (DLFM). Since the joint distribution of rates is unknown, we use a multi-dimensional full weak order 2.0 Ito–Taylor expansion in combination with a second-order Delta method. This more accurately accounts for state dependence in the drift terms, improving upon previous approaches. To verify this improvement we conduct quasi-Monte Carlo simulations. We use the new mean approximation to provide an improved swaption volatility approximation, and compare this to the approaches of Rebonato, Hull–White and Kawai, adapted to price swaptions under the DLFM. Rebonato and Hull–White are found to be the least accurate. While Kawai is the most accurate, it is computationally inefficient. Numerical results show that our approach strikes a balance between accuracy and efficiency.
我们提出了一种在移位对数正态前向libor模型(DLFM)下逼近远期利率矩的算法。由于速率的联合分布是未知的,我们使用了一个多维全弱阶2.0 Ito-Taylor展开结合二阶Delta方法。这更准确地说明了漂移项的状态依赖性,改进了以前的方法。为了验证这种改进,我们进行了准蒙特卡罗模拟。我们使用新的均值近似来提供改进的互换波动率近似,并将其与Rebonato, Hull-White和Kawai的方法进行比较,这些方法适用于DLFM下的价格互换。Rebonato和Hull-White是最不准确的。虽然Kawai是最准确的,但它的计算效率很低。数值结果表明,该方法在精度和效率之间取得了平衡。
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引用次数: 2
Liquidity Yield and Exchange Rate Predictability 流动性收益与汇率可预测性
Shiu‐Sheng Chen, Yu-Hsi Chou
In this paper, we extend the Taylor rule model of exchange rate determination by incorporating the liquidity yield on government bonds and investigate exchange rate predictability. We find that the liquidity yield on government bonds delivers additional predictive power to future exchange rate movements beyond the model with Taylor rule fundamentals, using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. In particular, the model with liquidity yield exhibits superior predictive power after the currency swap market frictions are controlled.
本文通过引入政府债券的流动性收益,扩展了汇率决定的泰勒规则模型,并研究了汇率的可预测性。我们发现,在使用样本内和样本外测试的情况下,政府债券的流动性收益率对未来汇率走势提供了额外的预测能力,超出了具有泰勒规则基本面的模型。特别是在货币互换市场摩擦得到控制后,具有流动性收益的模型表现出较好的预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship Between Implied Volatility and Cryptocurrency Returns 隐含波动率与加密货币收益之间的关系
Erdinç Akyıldırım, S. Corbet, B. Lucey, A. Şensoy, L. Yarovaya
Abstract We analyse the relationship between the price volatility of a broad range of cryptocurrencies and that of implied volatility of both United States and European financial markets as measured by the VIX and VSTOXX respectively. Overall, our results indicate the existence of time-varying positive interrelationships between the conditional correlations of cryptocurrencies and financial market stress. Further, these correlations are found to increase substantially during periods of high financial market stress, indicating that the contagion of significant financial market fear influences these new financial products.
摘要:我们分析了一系列加密货币的价格波动率与美国和欧洲金融市场隐含波动率之间的关系,分别由VIX和VSTOXX衡量。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,加密货币的条件相关性与金融市场压力之间存在时变的正相关关系。此外,在金融市场压力较大的时期,发现这些相关性大幅增加,表明重大金融市场恐惧的传染影响了这些新的金融产品。
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引用次数: 84
Currency Conversion of Fama/French Factors: How and Why 法马/法国因素的货币转换:如何以及为什么
M. Glück, Benjamin Hübel, H. Scholz
A convenient way to apply Fama/French factor models in empirical research is to use factor returns downloaded from databases like Kenneth French’s data library. These factors are usually provided in US dollars – for both US and non-US stock markets. When evaluating non-US data samples from a non US-dollar investor’s perspective (e.g., European funds from a EUR perspective), we point out that the downloaded factors need to be converted into the respective non-US-dollar currency. In this paper, we show how to convert the currencies of downloaded factors. Moreover, we illustrate the statistical and practical relevance of the currency conversion based on passive index returns of the MSCI Europe IMI and returns of actively managed European equity funds from a EUR perspective. Our findings suggest that neglecting the currency conversion results in skewed estimated alphas and factor loadings. The currency conversion of downloaded factors is thus relevant in drawing reliable conclusions when applying factor models from a non-US dollar perspective.
在实证研究中应用Fama/French因子模型的一种方便的方法是使用从数据库下载的因子回报,比如Kenneth French的数据库。这些因素通常以美元提供,包括美国和非美国股票市场。当从非美元投资者的角度评估非美元数据样本时(例如,从欧元的角度评估欧洲基金),我们指出,下载的因素需要转换成相应的非美元货币。在本文中,我们展示了如何转换下载因子的货币。此外,我们从欧元的角度,基于MSCI欧洲IMI的被动指数回报和主动管理的欧洲股票基金的回报,说明了货币转换的统计和实际相关性。我们的研究结果表明,忽略货币转换会导致估计阿尔法和因子负载的倾斜。因此,当从非美元角度应用因素模型时,下载因素的货币转换与得出可靠的结论有关。
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引用次数: 11
Duration of Sudden Stop Spells: A Hazard Model Approach 突然停止法术的持续时间:一种危险模型方法
M. Bandaogo, Yu‐chin Chen
Using a hazard‐based duration model, we analyze the determinants of the duration of a period of sudden stop, which is defined as a drop in capital inflow by two standard deviations, for at least two consecutive quarters. The hazard model estimates the conditional probability that the country exits the sudden stop today given that it experienced one until the end of last period. We find that a higher ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short‐term external debt shortens the duration of sudden stops. We also find that a higher global economic growth rate tends to shorten sudden stop spells. Our results are robust to various alternative specifications.
使用基于风险的持续时间模型,我们分析了突然停止持续时间的决定因素,它被定义为资本流入下降两个标准差,至少连续两个季度。风险模型估计了该国在上一时期结束前经历过突然停止的情况下今天退出突然停止的条件概率。我们发现,较高的外汇储备与短期外债的比率缩短了突然停止的持续时间。我们还发现,更高的全球经济增长率往往会缩短突然停止的时间。我们的结果对各种替代规范都是健壮的。
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引用次数: 6
Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets 外汇市场的执行风险和套利机会
Takatoshi Ito, Kenta Yamada, M. Takayasu, H. Takayasu
With the high-frequency data of firm quotes in the transaction platform of foreign exchanges, arbitrage profit opportunities—in the forms of a negative bid-ask spread of a currency pair and triangular transactions involving three currency pairs—can be detected to emerge and disappear in the matter of seconds. The frequency and duration of such arbitrage opportunities have declined over time, most likely due to the emergence of algorithmic trading. When a human trader detects such an arbitrage opportunity and places orders for multiple transactions—two in negative spreads and three in triangular arbitrage—there is no guarantee all of those orders are fulfilled in a fraction of one second. Thus, the arbitrageur has to consider execution risk, when he/she/it detects the emergence of such an opportunity. The novelty of this paper is to show that those arbitrage opportunities were exploitable and executable, before the mid-2000s, even considering the transactions costs and execution risk. After many algorithmic computers were allowed to be connected directly to the EBS transaction platform in the mid-2000s, the frequency of free lunch cases has declined and probabilities of successful executions of all legs for arbitrage declined. We calculate the change in the expected profit of an attempt to execute necessary transactions to reap benefits from arbitrage opportunity.
利用外汇交易平台的高频实盘数据,可以发现套利获利机会——以一种货币对的负买卖价差和三种货币对的三角交易的形式——在几秒钟内出现和消失。这种套利机会的频率和持续时间随着时间的推移而下降,很可能是由于算法交易的出现。当一个人工交易员发现这样的套利机会并下单进行多笔交易时——两笔为负价差,三笔为三角套利——无法保证所有这些订单都能在不到一秒的时间内完成。因此,当套利者发现这样的机会出现时,他/她/它必须考虑执行风险。本文的新颖之处在于,即使考虑到交易成本和执行风险,在2000年代中期之前,这些套利机会是可利用的和可执行的。在2000年代中期,许多算法计算机被允许直接连接到EBS交易平台后,免费午餐案例的频率下降了,所有套利交易成功执行的概率也下降了。我们计算了执行必要交易以从套利机会中获利的预期利润的变化。
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引用次数: 2
The Nexus between Exchange Rate and Foreign Equity Investors Behavior after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect 沪港通后汇率与境外投资者行为的关系
Pub Date : 2019-12-28 DOI: 10.16980/jitc.15.6.201912.35
Guodan Liu, Gab-Je Jo
Purpose - This paper investigates the causal nexus between the exchange rate and foreign equity investors’ behavior in Shanghai and Hong Kong by using daily time series data after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme was launched.

Design/Methodology/Approach - The empirical data period is a sample of all daily trading data from the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to April 12, 2019. In order to analyze the nexus between the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, we employed the impulse response function analysis based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model.

Findings - From estimation results on the Shanghai stock market, we found that exchange rates have not had a significant impact on foreign equity investors. Conversely, foreign equity flows have had a significant impact on exchange rate of the RMB. From estimation results on the Hong Kong stock market, it was found that mainland Chinese investors have not significantly affected the foreign exchange market of Hong Kong. On the other hand, the results show that exchange rates have had a significant impact on mainland Chinese investors in Hong Kong.

Research Implications or Originality - In the Shanghai stock market, exchange rates have not had a significant impact on foreign equity investors, which is due to exchange rate risk management by foreign investors. Conversely, a large amount of foreign equity inflows led to the appreciation of the RMB. In the Hong Kong stock market, mainland Chinese investors have not significantly affected the foreign exchange market of Hong Kong, which is due to a limited share of mainland Chinese investment in Hong Kong market capitalization. Conversely, exchange rates have had a significant impact on mainland Chinese investors in Hong Kong, which reveal that mainland Chinese equity flows into Hong Kong increased when the RMB depreciated against the Hong Kong dollar.
目的——本文利用沪港通开通后的每日时间序列数据,探讨汇率与沪港境外股权投资者行为之间的因果关系。设计/方法/方法-实证数据周期为沪港通实施至2019年4月12日的所有每日交易数据样本。为了分析上海证券交易所和香港证券交易所之间的联系,我们采用了基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的脉冲响应函数分析。研究结果-从上海股市的估计结果来看,我们发现汇率对境外股权投资者没有显著影响。相反,外资股权流动对人民币汇率产生了显著影响。从香港股票市场的估计结果来看,中国内地投资者对香港外汇市场的影响并不显著。另一方面,研究结果显示,汇率对中国内地投资者在香港的投资有显著影响。研究启示或独创性——在上海股市中,汇率对境外股权投资者没有产生显著影响,这是由于境外投资者进行了汇率风险管理。相反,大量外资股权流入导致人民币升值。在香港股市,中国内地投资者对香港外汇市场的影响并不明显,这是由于中国内地投资在香港市值中的份额有限。相反,汇率对香港的中国内地投资者产生了重大影响,这表明当人民币兑港元贬值时,流入香港的中国内地股票增加。
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引用次数: 0
The Cross-Section of Currency Volatility Premia 货币波动溢价的横截面
Pasquale Della Corte, R. Kozhan, A. Neuberger
Abstract We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes–a volatility carry strategy–generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns fully explains the cross-sectional variation of our slope-sorted portfolios. The lower the slope, the more the forward volatility agreement is exposed to volatility carry risk.
摘要我们在货币市场隐含波动率收益的横截面中确定了一个全球风险因素。一种零成本策略,即买入斜率向下的隐含波动率曲线的远期波动率协议,卖出斜率向上的隐含波动率曲线,即波动率套利策略,会产生显著的超额回报。与波动率套利收益的协变完全解释了我们斜率排序投资组合的横截面变化。斜率越低,远期波动率协议面临的波动率套利风险越大。
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引用次数: 19
期刊
Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange eJournal
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