JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS最新文献

We examine the relationship between manufacturing activity and inequality in India at the district level. Our inequality measures are defined on both consumption expenditure and earnings. The measures of manufacturing activity are based on district-level manufacturing activities. Controlling for district-level fixed effects, we show that there exists a U-shaped association between manufacturing activity and inequality, implying that inequality first decreases and then increases following the growth of manufacturing activity. In the attribution exercise, we observe that this relationship between manufacturing activity and inequality operates through the employment channel. Our results are robust to the alternative measures of manufacturing activity and inequality and to alternative estimation where we control for the spatial correlation across the districts.

This study provides insights into the dynamic job ladder and challenges in the Indian labor market, particularly when facing external shock. It examines the fluidity of job transitions among the ‘employed’, ‘unemployed’, and those ‘not in the laborforce’, focusing on the urban labor market of India during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from the 2020-21 Periodic Labour Force Survey, a longitudinal panel dataset was created to track individuals across four quarters, enabling the monitoring of their activity status. Employing K-Nearest Neighbour classification, the study identifies vulnerabilities in labor market engagement. It further explores factors driving transitions among the three states of labor market involvement, using a multinomial logistic model adjusted for selection bias. The research reveals significant movement within the labor force, with notable shifts between employment statuses. Even those currently employed are often vulnerable, at risk of detachment from the labor force at any time. Women were disproportionately affected, with evidence of discouraged worker effect, as many ceased jobs search duo to perceived job scarcity or unavailability of decent jobs. The study raised concerns about the sustainability of self-employment and the security of regular jobs. These findings expose enduring structural challenges exacerbated by the pandemic, calling for urgent action to address widespread unemployment, low female participation, and prevailing inequalities in the labor market.

This study examines the relationship between jati level ethnic fractionalization and employment status of married women in rural India using a nationally representative household survey. We observe that past ethnic fractionalization lowers married females’ likelihood of being employed. The findings are robust to accounting for possible endogeneity related to ethnic fractionalization variable. On exploring the pathways, we find that regressive patriarchal norms, lower confidence in institutions, and lower social capital are a few of the potential channels through which ethnic fractionalization in the village adversely impacts female employment. Our study also highlights that the negative effect is not homogenous and is prominent for male-headed households and in less gender-equal states.

The current paper develops a general equilibrium framework containing features of both the specific factor and the Hechsher-Ohlin models of trade to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on the wage rates of the workers. The theoretical results underline that reduction of tariff in a capital-intensive importing sector raises wages of both the skilled and the unskilled workers in an economy in the presence of intra-industry factor reallocation, followed by an expansion of the other sectors. Applying the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method of estimation, the empirical validation of the theoretical construct is carried out for India over 2000-01 to 2019-20. The results reveal that the sectors witnessing greater trade overlap experience lower employment adjustment costs. Moreover, rise in productivity and output levels as well as introduction of specific policy interventions (e.g., Make-in-India initiative in 2014) also reduce such adjustment costs. Conversely, factors such as increase in skilled and unskilled real wage rate, skilled worker intensity and trade openness enhance these expenses. The results indicate that while trade liberalization is not necessarily bad for industrial growth, it may not be sufficient either.

This study proposes an alternative approach for studying the role of countries’ weather differences on agriculture productivity changes. As weather is beyond the control of farmers, we model weather differences by defining time-dependent output-specific agro-climatic environments. These environments condition countries’ production process and technology, and indirectly impact their productivity gains. Building on a tailored database for 91 countries, we study productivity changes between 1961 and 2015. This represents a unique opportunity to analyse productivity changes for many countries over a long period. From a theoretical perspective, we define new output-specific indexes for productivity change and convergence between and within agro-climatic environments and decompose them into several parts. Another distinguishing feature of our approach is to rely on a non-parametric estimation method. We find that agro-climatic environment heterogeneity has a clear impact on productivity change and convergence, that depends on the outputs and evolves. Overall, our results show that productivity change is positive and productivity convergence occurs, both mainly due to technological change. Next, path dependence is observed for efficiency convergence but not for technological convergence. Finally, we cannot confirm that there are technology spillovers.

The Commonwealth of the Independent States (CIS) is an intergovernmental organization of eleven sovereign states which was created from the ex-USSR in December 1991. Countries in this group are low- and middle-income economies and what is worse, there are many constraints on their economic growth and international trade. One of these constraints and common features of these countries is the high level of corruption. In the literature, it is mostly indicated that weak governance has detrimental effects or in other words, may “sand the wheels” economies. However, another approach which is called as “grease the wheels hypothesis” claims that corruption may affect economic activities positively in countries that have weak governance. The aim of this study is to investigate the grease or sand the wheels hypothesis for corruption in the CIS. In order to consider the interrelationship between international trade, growth, and corruption, we estimate tri-variate models by employing the panel bootstrap Granger causality tests. Also, owing to advanced used method, our causality results provide the sign of the causality coefficients. Our findings show that “grease the wheels” hypothesis is supported for Moldova and Turkmenistan for the economic growth and for Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Ukraine for international trade.

The paper aims to examine the comovement in gross capital inflows and outflows in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) to check for the existence of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy), analyze the determinants of this commonality, and assess the role of domestic macroeconomic factors in affecting the sensitivity of capital flows to global factors. The study employs a two-level dynamic factor model to estimate the common components of gross capital flows in a 23-country sample covering EMDEs from three regions of the world. The study shows that a common global factor accounts for most of the variations in capital flow data, but with differences among regions. The determinants of global factors include global risk, liquidity, the growth rate of advanced economies, commodity prices, the US exchange rate, and the US interest rate. Domestic factors like financial linkages, trade openness, macroeconomic and financial instability, and exchange rate flexibility influence capital flow sensitivity to global factors. The study finds evidence of GFCy which can considerably reduce the ability of policymakers to insulate the domestic economy from global financial trends. However, there is evidence of the moderating role of exchange rate flexibility in transmitting the effects of global financial conditions on capital flows for EMDEs.

Inflation expectations hold utmost importance in central bank policymaking as they serve as a critical determinant of economic stability and the effectiveness of monetary policy measures. Based on this motivation, this study empirically examines the information content of yield spreads across different time horizons, using a Fisher equation-based model, to explain future changes in inflation. Interestingly, linear specifications fail to capture the relationship between yield spreads and inflation changes. To address this limitation, we employ a threshold model that reveals a significant non-linear association between yield spreads and inflation, particularly over longer time horizons in India. Out of sample forecasting results obtained further confirm that non-linear models are better fit compared to linear models to estimate the future changes in inflation. By embracing a non-linear approach, this study enhances our understanding of the complex dynamics between yield spreads and inflation in India, providing valuable insights for policymakers and economists alike.

This research aims to understand how changes in monetary policy can affect the unemployment rate in Morocco and how these effects can be modeled using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We have evaluated a quantitative macroeconomic framework that incorporates labor market frictions and unemployment. Our model is primarily based on a DSGE monetary model developed by Christiano et al. (J Polit Econ 113:1–45, 2005), Smets and Wouters (Am Econ Rev 97:586–606, 2007), and Gali (in: Handbook of monetary economics, Elsevier, 2010). Our findings suggest that restrictive monetary policies, characterized by higher financing costs and higher interest rates, can have negative effects on the Moroccan economy, particularly affecting low-income households. On the other hand, a positive shock to employment leads to an expansion in output and an increase in consumption, indicating that an increase in employment can contribute to economic growth and a better use of resources. However, it can also lead to a slight increase in inflation, which can be managed through appropriate monetary policy interventions. Moreover, a negative shock to unemployment results in an expansion of output and an increase in consumption, highlighting the potential challenges associated with a more restrictive monetary policy.

We construct a differentiated duopoly model to study whether free licensing can be profitable without network externalities and demand shift effect. The efficient firm possesses a superior input-saving technology and sells inputs to the backward firm. However, the optimal input price can be constrained or unconstrained in equilibrium depending on the constellation of parameters. We have shown that free licensing can be profitable if the innovation size is small and the transferee’s input production cost is sufficiently large. But free licensing is never profitable if products are homogeneous. An increase in market size also reduces the possibility of free licensing. We have also derived an implication of free licensing in the context of pollution problem.