What drives world leaders to act in good faith or in defiance of the norms that underpin sovereign lending? I propose an analytic framework to study the impact of economic narratives on emerging-market stances towards the international regime for sovereign debt. Latin American leaders draw on two narratives of the global political-economy: a) one which characterizes the market-mechanisms-based financial system as a zero-sum game which perpetuates economic hierarchies, and b) one which stresses its developmental potential and characterizes it as a positive-sum game. I employ Computational Text Analysis (CTA) methods to measure how often the topic of international finance has been discussed in United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) speeches (1970-2018) and how it has been framed. I explore two paradigmatic cases from Latin America where a pro-active foreign economic policy was pursued informed by opposing economic narratives. The first is Mexico's promotion of market mechanisms to reform the international financial architecture under Vicente Fox with the diffusion of Collective Action Clauses and the 2002 Monterrey Consensus. The second considers the politically motivated 2008 Ecuadorian default and Rafael Correa's denunciation of international financiers.
{"title":"Bubbles of Agency: Narratives of Finance in Latin America","authors":"Alfredo Hernández Sánchez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3601411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3601411","url":null,"abstract":"What drives world leaders to act in good faith or in defiance of the norms that underpin sovereign lending? I propose an analytic framework to study the impact of economic narratives on emerging-market stances towards the international regime for sovereign debt. Latin American leaders draw on two narratives of the global political-economy: a) one which characterizes the market-mechanisms-based financial system as a zero-sum game which perpetuates economic hierarchies, and b) one which stresses its developmental potential and characterizes it as a positive-sum game. I employ Computational Text Analysis (CTA) methods to measure how often the topic of international finance has been discussed in United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) speeches (1970-2018) and how it has been framed. I explore two paradigmatic cases from Latin America where a pro-active foreign economic policy was pursued informed by opposing economic narratives. The first is Mexico's promotion of market mechanisms to reform the international financial architecture under Vicente Fox with the diffusion of Collective Action Clauses and the 2002 Monterrey Consensus. The second considers the politically motivated 2008 Ecuadorian default and Rafael Correa's denunciation of international financiers.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114080113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the transformation of the International Monetary System (IMS) in the run up to and after the 2007-9 Financial Crisis. Adopting a Money View perspective, it argues that the IMS, in contrast to wide-spread skepticism, does have a system-like quality. This paper understands the IMS as a US-centered hierarchical payments system within which short-term debt instruments are issued as credit money by various public and private financial institutions, in particular central, commercial and shadow banks. With the Fed located at the apex of the IMS, credit money forms denominated in US dollars are located highest up in the hierarchy and trade at par with each other, whilst they typically have fluctuating exchange rates to credit money forms denominated in the units of account of other monetary jurisdictions. From this, the paper argues that the key component of today’s IMS is the 'realm' of offshore US dollar creation, which is situated in between US dollar-denominated credit money issued in the US ('onshore dollars') and non-US dollar-denominated credit money issued outside the US. In this 'offshore dollar realm', non-US financial institutions are able to create international liquidity via US dollar-denominated private credit money outside the US. The paper systematically carves out the post-2008 setup of the offshore dollar realm with a focus on Eurodollar deposits, offshore money market fund shares, foreign exchange swaps and central bank swaps. With the institutional innovations materializing during the 2007-9 Financial Crisis, the IMS is now a public- private hybrid that fully mirrors the onshore US monetary system in the offshore dollar realm. This discussion paper is the first in a series of two complementary pieces on the past, present and possible futures of the International Monetary System. It lays the theoretical and historical foundation for the paper "The Future of Offshore Dollar Creation: Four Scenarios for the International Monetary System by 2040", authored by Steffen Murau, Joe Rini and Armin Haas (https://ssrn.com/abstract=3191786).
{"title":"Offshore Dollar Creation and the Emergence of the Post-2008 International Monetary System","authors":"Steffen Murau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3191981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3191981","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the transformation of the International Monetary System (IMS) in the run up to and after the 2007-9 Financial Crisis. Adopting a Money View perspective, it argues that the IMS, in contrast to wide-spread skepticism, does have a system-like quality. This paper understands the IMS as a US-centered hierarchical payments system within which short-term debt instruments are issued as credit money by various public and private financial institutions, in particular central, commercial and shadow banks. With the Fed located at the apex of the IMS, credit money forms denominated in US dollars are located highest up in the hierarchy and trade at par with each other, whilst they typically have fluctuating exchange rates to credit money forms denominated in the units of account of other monetary jurisdictions. From this, the paper argues that the key component of today’s IMS is the 'realm' of offshore US dollar creation, which is situated in between US dollar-denominated credit money issued in the US ('onshore dollars') and non-US dollar-denominated credit money issued outside the US. In this 'offshore dollar realm', non-US financial institutions are able to create international liquidity via US dollar-denominated private credit money outside the US. The paper systematically carves out the post-2008 setup of the offshore dollar realm with a focus on Eurodollar deposits, offshore money market fund shares, foreign exchange swaps and central bank swaps. With the institutional innovations materializing during the 2007-9 Financial Crisis, the IMS is now a public- private hybrid that fully mirrors the onshore US monetary system in the offshore dollar realm. \u0000This discussion paper is the first in a series of two complementary pieces on the past, present and possible futures of the International Monetary System. It lays the theoretical and historical foundation for the paper \"The Future of Offshore Dollar Creation: Four Scenarios for the International Monetary System by 2040\", authored by Steffen Murau, Joe Rini and Armin Haas (https://ssrn.com/abstract=3191786).","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115851717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies banks' liquidity provision in the Lagos and Wright model of monetary exchanges. With aggregate uncertainty we show that banks sometimes exhaust their cash reserves and fail to satisfy their depositors' need of consumption smoothing. The banking panics can be eliminated by the zero-interest policy for the perfect risk sharing, but the first best can be achieved only at the Friedman rule. In our monetary equilibrium, the probability of banking panics is endogenous and increases with inflation, as is consistent with empirical evidence. The model derives a rich array of non-trivial effects of inflation on the equilibrium deposit and the bank's portfolio.
{"title":"Banking Panics and Liquidity in a Monetary Economy","authors":"Tarishi Matsuoka, Makoto Watanabe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3041373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3041373","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies banks' liquidity provision in the Lagos and Wright model of monetary exchanges. With aggregate uncertainty we show that banks sometimes exhaust their cash reserves and fail to satisfy their depositors' need of consumption smoothing. The banking panics can be eliminated by the zero-interest policy for the perfect risk sharing, but the first best can be achieved only at the Friedman rule. In our monetary equilibrium, the probability of banking panics is endogenous and increases with inflation, as is consistent with empirical evidence. The model derives a rich array of non-trivial effects of inflation on the equilibrium deposit and the bank's portfolio.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131015324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In our book, Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth, we traced out the evolution of the international monetary system using the framework of the “international monetary trilemma”: countries can enjoy at most two from the set {exchange-rate stability, open capital markets, and domestic monetary autonomy}. The events of the past decade or more highlight the further complications for this framework posed by financial stability issues. Here we update and qualify our prior analysis, drawing on recent experience and research. Under the classical gold standard, scant attention was paid to macro management, either to stabilize output and employment or to ensure financial stability. The interwar years highlighted the changing demands for modern central bank interventions in the economy. Financial instability, followed by WWII, left a world with sharply constricted financial markets and little private cross-border capital mobility. Due to this historical accident, the Bretton Woods system agreed in 1944 focused not at all on financial stability, and focused on issues like adjustment, exchange rate misalignment, and international liquidity (defined in terms of official, not private, capital-account transactions). Post 1970s floating rates permitted, but did not require, liberalization of the capital account. But the political equilibrium had shifted in favor of financial interests, signaled by the push toward European integration and the later reform process in emerging markets starting in the 1990s. This development, however, opened the door once again to domestic financial crises and their international transmission. Countries now become more susceptible to a new species of “capital account crises,” fueled by bank and bond lending, and its sudden withdrawal. These developments, in fact, made evident a different, “financial trilemma”: countries can pick at most two from {financial stability, open capital markets, and autonomy over domestic financial policy}. We distill the main lessons as to the interactions between the monetary and financial trilemmas, and policies that could best address the resulting weaknesses.
{"title":"International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously","authors":"M. Obstfeld, Alan M. Taylor","doi":"10.1257/JEP.31.3.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/JEP.31.3.3","url":null,"abstract":"In our book, Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth, we traced out the evolution of the international monetary system using the framework of the “international monetary trilemma”: countries can enjoy at most two from the set {exchange-rate stability, open capital markets, and domestic monetary autonomy}. The events of the past decade or more highlight the further complications for this framework posed by financial stability issues. Here we update and qualify our prior analysis, drawing on recent experience and research. Under the classical gold standard, scant attention was paid to macro management, either to stabilize output and employment or to ensure financial stability. The interwar years highlighted the changing demands for modern central bank interventions in the economy. Financial instability, followed by WWII, left a world with sharply constricted financial markets and little private cross-border capital mobility. Due to this historical accident, the Bretton Woods system agreed in 1944 focused not at all on financial stability, and focused on issues like adjustment, exchange rate misalignment, and international liquidity (defined in terms of official, not private, capital-account transactions). Post 1970s floating rates permitted, but did not require, liberalization of the capital account. But the political equilibrium had shifted in favor of financial interests, signaled by the push toward European integration and the later reform process in emerging markets starting in the 1990s. This development, however, opened the door once again to domestic financial crises and their international transmission. Countries now become more susceptible to a new species of “capital account crises,” fueled by bank and bond lending, and its sudden withdrawal. These developments, in fact, made evident a different, “financial trilemma”: countries can pick at most two from {financial stability, open capital markets, and autonomy over domestic financial policy}. We distill the main lessons as to the interactions between the monetary and financial trilemmas, and policies that could best address the resulting weaknesses.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131098687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ayelen Banegas, Ruth A. Judson, Charles Sims, Viktors Stebunovs
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, explain the flows markedly well. Further, precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is not episodic.
{"title":"International Dollar Flows","authors":"Ayelen Banegas, Ruth A. Judson, Charles Sims, Viktors Stebunovs","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2664167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2664167","url":null,"abstract":"Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, explain the flows markedly well. Further, precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is not episodic.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"9 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127049966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The international statuses of currencies shape a fundamental characteristic of the international monetary system, which has significant impacts on the world political economy by affecting the political as well as economic relationships among states. The study of international currencies has been long dominated largely by economists, however, with political economy research in this area quite underdeveloped. However, the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the subsequent European debt crisis and the recent active Chinese promotion of renminbi internationalization have spurred new and considerable interest among political economists on issues surrounding international currencies. Political economy study of international currencies has thus been gradually growing of late, and making notable progress. This study provides a comprehensive and systematic review of the literature on international currencies—covering both political economy and economics—with the primary aim of building a useful groundwork to help develop a better research framework for the political economy study of them. In particular, it discusses the international currency concept, the costs and benefits of international currency issuance, the determinants of currency internationalization, and the future prospects of the current dollar-centered international monetary system. This research in addition highlights a group of important issues that need further investigation by future political economy study of international currencies, by drawing special attention to the following issues: historical events, the political determinants of currency internationalization, government policy strategies, and the consequences of international currency choice.
{"title":"The Concepts, Consequences, and Determinants of Currency Internationalization","authors":"Hyoung‐kyu Chey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2262135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2262135","url":null,"abstract":"The international statuses of currencies shape a fundamental characteristic of the international monetary system, which has significant impacts on the world political economy by affecting the political as well as economic relationships among states. The study of international currencies has been long dominated largely by economists, however, with political economy research in this area quite underdeveloped. However, the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the subsequent European debt crisis and the recent active Chinese promotion of renminbi internationalization have spurred new and considerable interest among political economists on issues surrounding international currencies. Political economy study of international currencies has thus been gradually growing of late, and making notable progress. This study provides a comprehensive and systematic review of the literature on international currencies—covering both political economy and economics—with the primary aim of building a useful groundwork to help develop a better research framework for the political economy study of them. In particular, it discusses the international currency concept, the costs and benefits of international currency issuance, the determinants of currency internationalization, and the future prospects of the current dollar-centered international monetary system. This research in addition highlights a group of important issues that need further investigation by future political economy study of international currencies, by drawing special attention to the following issues: historical events, the political determinants of currency internationalization, government policy strategies, and the consequences of international currency choice.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130551386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper discusses global current account imbalances in the context of an asymmetric world monetary system and asymmetric current account developments. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the dollar (dollar periphery) and current account deficits of countries stabilizing their exchange rate against the euro or members of the euro area (euro periphery). The paper finds that changes of world current account positions are closely linked to the monetary policy decision patterns both in the centers and peripheries. Whereas in the centers current account positions are affected by monetary policies, in the peripheries exchange rate stabilization cum sterilization matters. In specific, monetary expansion in the US as well as exchange rate stabilization and sterilization policies in the dollar periphery are found to have contributed to global imbalances.
{"title":"Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances","authors":"Gunther Schnabl, Stephan Freitag","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1983933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1983933","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses global current account imbalances in the context of an asymmetric world monetary system and asymmetric current account developments. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the dollar (dollar periphery) and current account deficits of countries stabilizing their exchange rate against the euro or members of the euro area (euro periphery). The paper finds that changes of world current account positions are closely linked to the monetary policy decision patterns both in the centers and peripheries. Whereas in the centers current account positions are affected by monetary policies, in the peripheries exchange rate stabilization cum sterilization matters. In specific, monetary expansion in the US as well as exchange rate stabilization and sterilization policies in the dollar periphery are found to have contributed to global imbalances.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134306918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Asian currency crisis in 1997 and the launch of the euro in 1999 made the possibility and desirability of introducing a regional currency union in East Asia a point of debate. At present, the empirical findings and policy implications of previous studies are mixed. We are still in need of theoretical and empirical studies that capture the salient features of East Asia, and give us reliable recommendations for incentive structures, configurations and policy instruments in monetary cooperation in its various stages. This paper aims to review major conceptual and empirical issues relevant to monetary cooperation in East Asia, including proposals for a regional cooperative framework for exchange rate stability or forming a currency union in the region. East Asian countries have no experience with any type of monetary cooperation and all we have are hypothetical predictions. Nevertheless, East Asian countries may be on the brink of an historical evolution to economic and monetary integration, as Europe was half a century ago. The progressive integration of markets in East Asia has conferred a commonality of economic interest upon the countries in the region. As the economic structures of East Asian countries converge with one another through closer ties of trade, investment and finance, the necessity for monetary cooperation will be more likely to emerge in the future. Monetary cooperation in East Asia will be a long process. East Asian countries should make efforts to build collective institutions in the beginning.
{"title":"Monetary Cooperation in East Asia: Major Issues and Future Prospects","authors":"Jai-Won Ryou, Yunjong Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3079152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3079152","url":null,"abstract":"The Asian currency crisis in 1997 and the launch of the euro in 1999 made the possibility and desirability of introducing a regional currency union in East Asia a point of debate. At present, the empirical findings and policy implications of previous studies are mixed. We are still in need of theoretical and empirical studies that capture the salient features of East Asia, and give us reliable recommendations for incentive structures, configurations and policy instruments in monetary cooperation in its various stages. This paper aims to review major conceptual and empirical issues relevant to monetary cooperation in East Asia, including proposals for a regional cooperative framework for exchange rate stability or forming a currency union in the region. East Asian countries have no experience with any type of monetary cooperation and all we have are hypothetical predictions. Nevertheless, East Asian countries may be on the brink of an historical evolution to economic and monetary integration, as Europe was half a century ago. The progressive integration of markets in East Asia has conferred a commonality of economic interest upon the countries in the region. As the economic structures of East Asian countries converge with one another through closer ties of trade, investment and finance, the necessity for monetary cooperation will be more likely to emerge in the future. Monetary cooperation in East Asia will be a long process. East Asian countries should make efforts to build collective institutions in the beginning.","PeriodicalId":422309,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other International Political Economy: Monetary Relations (Topic)","volume":"420 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115994856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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