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Time Series Modeling of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Spread in Iran 冠状病毒(COVID-19)在伊朗传播的时间序列模型
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.103
Zahra Barkhordar, Z. Khodadadi, K. Zare, M. Maleki
Various types of Coronaviruses are envelopedRNAviruses from the Coronaviridae family and part of the Coronavirinae subfamily. This family of viruses affects neurological, gastrointestinal, hepatic, and respiratory systems. Recently, a new member of this family, named Covid-19, is moving around the world. The expansion of Covid-19 carries many risks, and its control requires strict planning and special policies. Iran is one of the countries in the world where the outbreak of the disease has been serious and the daily number of confirmed cases is increasing in some places. Prediction of future confirmed cases of the COVID-19 is planning with a certain policy to provide the clinical and medical supplementary. Time series models based on the statistical methodology are useful to model and forecast time-indexed data. In many situations in the real world, the ordinary classical time series models based on the symmetrical and light-tailed distributions cannot lead to a satisfactory result (or predicion). Thus, in our methodology, we consider the analysis of symmetrical/asymmetrical and light/heavy-tailed time series data based on the two-piece scale mixture of the normal (TP-SMN) distribution. The proposed model is useful for symmetrical and light-tailed time series data, and it can work well relative to the ordinary Gaussian and symmetry models (especially for COVID-19 datasets). In this study, we fit the proposed model to the historical COVID-19 datasets in Iran. We show that the proposed time series model is the best fitted model to each dataset. Finally, we predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran. © 2022. Journal of the Iranian Statistical Society.All Rights Reserved.
各种类型的冠状病毒是来自冠状病毒科和冠状病毒亚科的包膜RNA病毒。该病毒家族影响神经系统、胃肠道、肝脏和呼吸系统。最近,这个家庭的新成员新冠肺炎正在世界各地搬家。新冠肺炎的扩大带来了许多风险,其控制需要严格的规划和特殊的政策。伊朗是世界上疫情严重的国家之一,一些地方的每日确诊病例数正在增加。对未来新冠肺炎确诊病例的预测,正以一定的政策为规划提供临床和医学上的补充。基于统计方法的时间序列模型有助于对时间索引数据进行建模和预测。在现实世界中的许多情况下,基于对称和轻尾分布的普通经典时间序列模型不能产生令人满意的结果(或预测)。因此,在我们的方法中,我们考虑基于正态分布的两件式尺度混合(TP-SMN)对对称/非对称和轻尾/重尾时间序列数据的分析。所提出的模型适用于对称和轻尾时间序列数据,并且相对于普通的高斯和对称模型(尤其是新冠肺炎数据集),它可以很好地工作。在这项研究中,我们将所提出的模型与伊朗历史上的新冠肺炎数据集进行了拟合。我们表明,所提出的时间序列模型是每个数据集的最佳拟合模型。最后,我们预测了伊朗新冠肺炎确诊病例的数量。©2022。伊朗统计学会杂志。保留所有权利。
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引用次数: 0
Random Projection-Based Anderson-Darling Test for Random Fields 基于随机投影的随机场Anderson-Darling检验
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.1
Yasser Al Zaim, Mohammad Reza Faridrohani
. In this paper, we present the Anderson-Darling (AD) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness of fit statistics for stationary and non-stationary random fields. Namely, we adopt an easy-to-apply method based on a random projection of a Hilbert-valued random field onto the real line R , and then, applying the well-known AD and KS goodness of fit tests. We conclude this paper by studying the behavior of the proposed approach in the wide range of simulation studies and in a case study of autistic and healthy individuals.
. 本文给出了平稳随机场和非平稳随机场的Anderson-Darling (AD)和Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)拟合优度统计量。即,我们采用一种易于应用的方法,基于hilbert值随机场在实线R上的随机投影,然后应用众所周知的AD和KS拟合优度检验。我们通过在广泛的模拟研究和自闭症和健康个体的案例研究中研究所提出的方法的行为来结束本文。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Subpopulation Parameters in One-stage Cluster Sampling Design 一阶段聚类抽样设计中子种群参数的估计
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.65
Mostafa Hossaini, A. Rezaei Roknabadi
. Sometimes in order to estimate population parameters such as mean and total values, we extract a random sample by cluster sampling method, and after completing sampling, we are interested in using the same sample to estimate the desired parameters in a subset of the population, which is said subpopulation. In this paper, we try to estimate subpopulation parameters in di ff erent cases when one-stage cluster sampling design is used.
有时,为了估计种群参数,如均值和总值,我们通过聚类采样方法提取随机样本,在完成采样后,我们有兴趣使用相同的样本来估计种群的子集中的期望参数,该子集就是所述子种群。在本文中,当使用一阶段聚类抽样设计时,我们试图在不同情况下估计亚种群参数。
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引用次数: 0
Preservation of Stochastic Orderings of Interdependent Series and Parallel Systems by Componentwise Switching to Exponentiated Models 相互依赖的串联和并行系统的随机顺序的保持,通过组件切换到指数模型
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.117
H. Nadeb, H. Torabi
. This paper discusses the preservation of some stochastic orders between two interdependent series and parallel systems when the survival and distribution functions of all components switch to the exponentiated model. For the series systems, the likelihood ratio, hazard rate, usual, aging faster, aging intensity, convex transform, star, superadditive and dispersive orderings, and for the parallel systems the reversed hazard, usual, convex transform, star, superadditive and dispersive orderings are studied. Also, we present a necessary and su ffi cient condition for being finiteness of the moments of the switched series and switched parallel systems.
.本文讨论了当所有分量的生存和分布函数切换到指数模型时,两个相互依赖的串联和并联系统之间的一些随机阶的保持。对于串联系统,研究了似然比、危险率、通常、老化较快、老化强度、凸变换、星形、超加性和色散阶,对于并联系统,研究反危险、通常、凸变换和星形、超加性和色散秩。此外,我们还提出了开关串联系统和开关并联系统的矩一致性的一个充要条件。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparative Study of Some Clustering Algorithms on Shape Data 几种形状数据聚类算法的比较研究
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.29
Sahar Asili, A. Mohammadpour, O. Naghshineh Arjmand, M. Golalizazdedh
. Recently, some statistical studies have been done using the shape data. One of these studies is clustering shape data, which is the main topic of this paper. We are going to study some clustering algorithms on shape data and then introduce the best algorithm based on accuracy, speed, and scalability criteria. In addition, we propose a method for representing the shape data that facilitates and speeds up the shape clustering algorithms. Although the mentioned method is not very accurate, it is fast; therefore, it is useful for datasets with a high number of landmarks or observations, which take a long time to be clustered by means of other algorithms. It should be noted that this method is not new, but in this article we apply it in shape data analysis. clustering algorithms on five shape datasets.
最近,已经使用形状数据进行了一些统计研究。其中一项研究是对形状数据进行聚类,这是本文的主要主题。我们将研究一些形状数据的聚类算法,然后介绍基于准确性、速度和可扩展性标准的最佳算法。此外,我们还提出了一种表示形状数据的方法,该方法方便并加快了形状聚类算法。虽然上述方法不是很准确,但速度很快;因此,它适用于具有大量地标或观测值的数据集,这些数据集需要很长时间才能通过其他算法进行聚类。需要注意的是,这种方法并不新鲜,但在本文中,我们将其应用于形状数据分析。五个形状数据集上的聚类算法。
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引用次数: 1
Testing Several Rival Models Using the Extension of Vuong's Test and Quasi Clustering 用Vuong检验和拟聚类的扩展检验几个竞争模型
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.43
A. Sayyareh
. The two main goals in model selection are firstly introducing an approach to test homogeneity of several rival models and secondly selecting a set of reasonable models or estimating the best rival model to the true one. In this paper we extend Vuong’s method for several models to cluster them. Based on the working paper of Katayama (2008), we propose an approach to test whether rival models have expected relations. The multivariate extension of Vuong’s test gives the opportunity to examine some hypotheses about the rival models and their relations with respect to the unknown true model. On the other hand, the standard method of model selection provides an implementation of Occam’s razor, in which parsimony or simplicity is balanced against goodness of fit. Therefore, we are interested in clustering the rival models based on their divergence from the true model to select a suitable set of rival models. In this paper we have introduced two approaches to select suitable sets of rival models based on the multivariate extension of Vuong’s test and quasi clustering approach. MSC: 62F03, 62H30.
.模型选择的两个主要目标是首先引入一种方法来测试几个竞争模型的同质性,其次选择一组合理的模型或将最佳竞争模型估计为真实模型。在本文中,我们将Vuong的方法扩展到几个模型来对它们进行聚类。基于Katayama(2008)的工作论文,我们提出了一种测试竞争模型是否具有预期关系的方法。Vuong检验的多元扩展提供了检验竞争模型的一些假设及其与未知真实模型的关系的机会。另一方面,模型选择的标准方法提供了一种奥卡姆剃刀的实现,其中简约或简单性与良好性相平衡。因此,我们感兴趣的是根据竞争模型与真实模型的差异对其进行聚类,以选择一组合适的竞争模型。在本文中,我们介绍了两种基于Vuong检验的多元扩展和准聚类方法来选择合适的竞争模型集的方法。MSC:62F03,62H30。
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic Restricted Two-Parameter Estimator in Linear Mixed Measurement Error Models 线性混合测量误差模型中的随机约束双参数估计
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.79
Nahid Ganjealivand, F. Ghapani, A. Zaherzadeh, F. Hormozinejad
. In this study, the stochastic restricted and unrestricted two-parameter estimators of fixed and random e ff ects are investigated in the linear mixed measurement error models. For this purpose, the asymptotic properties and then the comparisons under the criterion of mean squared error matrix ( MSEM ) are derived. Furthermore, the proposed methods are used for estimating the biasing parameters. Finally, a real data analysis and a simulation study are provided to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators
. 本文研究了线性混合测量误差模型中固定效应和随机效应的随机约束和无限制双参数估计。为此,导出了渐近性质,并在均方误差矩阵(MSEM)准则下进行了比较。此外,该方法还用于估计偏置参数。最后,通过实际数据分析和仿真研究来评估所提估计器的性能
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引用次数: 0
A Discrete Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin Exponential Distribution 一个离散的Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin指数分布
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.2.129
Jiju Gillariose, Lishamol Tomy, Farrukh Jamal, C. Chesneau
. Finding new families of distributions has become a popular tool in statistical research. In this article, we introduce a new flexible four-parameter discrete model based on the Marshall-Olkin approach, namely, the discrete Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin exponential distribution. The proposed distribution can be viewed as another generalization of the geometric distribution and enfolds some important distributions as special cases. Some properties of the new distribution are derived. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, with validation through a complete simulation study. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated via count-type real data sets. MSC:
. 寻找新的分布族已经成为统计研究中的一个流行工具。在本文中,我们引入了一种新的基于Marshall-Olkin方法的柔性四参数离散模型,即离散Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin指数分布。所提出的分布可以看作是几何分布的另一种推广,并包含了一些重要的分布作为特殊情况。给出了新分布的一些性质。采用最大似然法估计模型参数,并通过完整的仿真研究进行了验证。通过计数型实际数据集说明了新模型的有效性。硕士:
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引用次数: 2
On the Blocks of Interpoint Distances 在点间距离块上
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.1.197
R. Modarres
We study the blocks of interpoint distances, their distributions, correlations, independence and the homogeneity of their total variances. We discuss the exact and asymptotic distribution of the interpoint distances and their average under three models and provide connections between the correlation of interpoint distances with their vector correlation and test of sphericity. We discuss testing independence of the blocks based on the correlation of block interpoint distances. A homogeneity test of the total variances in each block and a simultaneous plot to visualize their relative ordering are presented.
我们研究了点间距离的块,它们的分布,相关性,独立性和它们总方差的同质性。讨论了三种模型下点间距离及其平均值的精确分布和渐近分布,并给出了点间距离的相关性及其向量相关性与球度检验之间的联系。我们讨论了基于块间点距离相关性的块独立性测试。提出了对每个块的总方差的同质性检验和同时绘制的图来可视化它们的相对顺序。
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引用次数: 1
Variants of Mixtures: Information Properties and Applications 混合物的变体:信息性质和应用
IF 0.4 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.52547/jirss.20.1.27
Omid M. Ardakani, M. Asadi, N. Ebrahimi, E. Soofi
In recent years, we have studied information properties of various types of mixtures of probability distributions and introduced a new type, which includes previously known mixtures as special cases. These studies are disseminated in di ff erent fields: reliability engineering, econometrics, operations research, probability, the information theory, and data mining. This paper presents a holistic view of these studies and provides further insights and examples. We note that the insightful probabilistic formulation of the mixing parameters stipulated by Behboodian (1972) is required for a representation of the well-known information measure of the arithmetic mixture. Applications of this information measure presented in this paper include lifetime modeling, system reliability, measuring uncertainty and disagreement of forecasters, probability modeling with partial information, and information loss of kernel estimation. Probabilistic formulations of the mixing weights for various types of mixtures provide the Bayes-Fisher information and the Bayes risk of the mean residual function. MSC: 62B10, 62C05, 60E05, 60E15, 62N05, 94A15, 94A17. (CDF, PDF, SF, HR, MR, OR). The study of information properties of various types of mixtures involves assortments of information and divergence measures: Shannon entropy, KL, JS, Je ff reys, Chi-square, Rényi, Tsallis, and Je ff reys type symmetrized Tsallis divergences, Fisher information measure and Fisher information distance, KL type divergence between SFs, and expected L 1 -norm between cumulative hazards. Areas of applications covered include reliability (comparison of systems), econometrics (uncertainty and disagreements of forecasters), statistics (kernel estimation, exponential family, comparison of two normal means), and nonextensive statistical mechanics (escort distributions).
近年来,我们研究了各种类型的概率分布混合的信息性质,并引入了一种新的类型,其中包括以前已知的混合作为特例。这些研究分布在不同的领域:可靠性工程、计量经济学、运筹学、概率论、信息论和数据挖掘。本文提出了这些研究的整体观点,并提供了进一步的见解和例子。我们注意到,Behboodian(1972)规定的混合参数的有见地的概率公式是表示众所周知的算术混合的信息度量所必需的。本文介绍了该信息度量的应用,包括寿命建模、系统可靠性、测量不确定性和预测者的不一致、部分信息的概率建模和核估计的信息损失。各种类型混合物的混合权值的概率公式提供了贝叶斯-费雪信息和平均残差函数的贝叶斯风险。Msc: 62b10, 62c05, 60e05, 60e15, 62n05, 94a15, 94a17。(cdf, pdf, sf, hr, mr, or)。各类混合物的信息特性研究涉及信息和散度测度的分类:Shannon熵、KL、JS、jffreys、卡方、r、Tsallis和jffreys型对称的Tsallis散度、Fisher信息测度和Fisher信息距离、SFs之间的KL型散度、累积风险之间的期望L -范数。应用领域包括可靠性(系统的比较)、计量经济学(预测者的不确定性和分歧)、统计学(核估计、指数族、两个正态均值的比较)和非广泛的统计力学(护送分布)。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
JIRSS-Journal of the Iranian Statistical Society
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