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The Future of Global Value Chains and International Trade: An EU Perspective 全球价值链与国际贸易的未来:欧盟视角
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00252-4
Giorgia Giovannetti, Enrico Marvasi, Giorgio Ricchiuti
The Great Recession, Brexit, the trade war between China and the USA, the pandemic crisis, and the regional wars (Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East) have opened the way to a reorganization of the global value chains and international trade. The EU in particular is facing crucial challenges regarding the internal equilibria between member countries as well as the external relations and the balance between superpowers in an uncertain geopolitical landscape. In this opening article of the Special Issue on “The Future of Global Value Chains and International Trade: An EU perspective”, we review the evolution of international trade and discuss the recent changes in the EU’s trade patterns looking at intermediate, consumption, and capital goods. We provide an overview of the contents of the Special Issue, which we organized by theme. Our analysis raises some issues and sets the stage for the following analyses and future research.
经济大衰退、英国脱欧、中美贸易战、疫情危机以及地区战争(俄乌和中东)为全球价值链和国际贸易的重组开辟了道路。尤其是欧盟,在不确定的地缘政治形势下,成员国之间的内部平衡以及超级大国之间的对外关系和平衡都面临着重大挑战。在“全球价值链与国际贸易的未来:欧盟视角”特刊的开篇文章中,我们回顾了国际贸易的演变,并从中间产品、消费和资本品的角度讨论了欧盟贸易模式的最新变化。我们提供了特刊内容的概述,我们按主题组织。我们的分析提出了一些问题,并为后续分析和未来的研究奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 1
Innovate to Resist: Are Innovators Shielded from External Shocks? 创新抵抗:创新者是否能免受外部冲击?
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00245-3
Stefano Iandolo, Anna Maria Ferragina
Abstract Economic shocks are often difficult to predict, as they are independent of the will of the economic agents affected and, therefore, exogenous to their choices. However, the effects of such shocks when they occur impact on national economies, business performance, and employment of individuals, thus shaking countries’ economies, and often with long-lasting effects. Although it is difficult to predict their occurrence, it is possible to withstand the consequences of exogenous shocks and be more resilient should they occur. Investing in order to be at the frontier of innovation is one of the tools that economies can adopt to protect their agents, thus defending them from the downturns that can result from unexpected economic events. In this paper, we study whether being more innovative does protect Italian provinces from the negative effects of exogenous shocks, with a focus on employment levels. The object of the analysis is, more specifically, the role of the innovation stock in protecting provinces’ employment levels from trade and economic shocks. The analysis, conducted in the period 2000–2018, examines the effect of trade shock on Italian provinces’ employment levels, and the role of the innovation stock in preserving those levels. Our results confirm that innovative provinces are more protected from external trade and economic shocks, with this effect being evident in both Southern and Northern regions, and despite the level of internationalization of provinces.
经济冲击通常很难预测,因为它们独立于受影响的经济主体的意志,因此对他们的选择是外生的。然而,这种冲击发生时的影响会影响国民经济、企业绩效和个人就业,从而动摇国家经济,并往往具有长期影响。虽然很难预测它们的发生,但有可能承受外源冲击的后果,并且在它们发生时更具弹性。为了走在创新的前沿而进行投资,是经济体可以用来保护其主体的工具之一,从而保护他们免受意外经济事件可能导致的衰退的影响。在本文中,我们以就业水平为重点,研究更具创新性是否能保护意大利各省免受外生冲击的负面影响。更具体地说,分析的对象是创新存量在保护各省就业水平免受贸易和经济冲击方面的作用。该分析在2000年至2018年期间进行,研究了贸易冲击对意大利各省就业水平的影响,以及创新存量在保持这些水平方面的作用。我们的研究结果证实,尽管各省的国际化水平较高,但创新型省份在外部贸易和经济冲击中受到的保护更大,这种效应在南部和北部地区都很明显。
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引用次数: 1
Why Do You Make Things So Complicated? Understanding the Texts of Regulations During the COVID-19 Pandemic 你为什么把事情弄得这么复杂?理解新冠肺炎疫情期间的法规文本
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00243-5
Vincenzo Alfano, Massimo Guarino
Abstract The last two years have been characterized by a considerable increase in the number of national and local regulations to contain and fight the spread of the COVID-19 contagion. The literature suggests that poor readability of regulations comes with a significant cost in terms of public compliance, in various contexts. Does the readability of COVID-19 regulations impact their effectiveness? We study the matter in Italy, a country severely affected by the first wave of COVID-19, and one that has seen many local regulations that have tried to halt the virus. Our empirical evidence, obtained from a corpus built on the basis of all 640 regional COVID-19 regulations that have been published, was collected from the Italian Conference of Regions and Autonomous Provinces between 21 February and 14 June 2020. Our results, obtained through F-GLS estimations with fixed, hybrid, and random effects, suggest that the readability of the regulations affected the spread of the pandemic, and that an improvement in readability would lead to more efficient outcomes.
近两年来,国家和地方为遏制和抗击新冠肺炎疫情的传播出台了大量法规。文献表明,在各种情况下,法规的可读性差会带来公众合规方面的重大成本。COVID-19法规的可读性是否会影响其有效性?我们在意大利研究了这个问题,这个国家受到了第一波COVID-19的严重影响,并且已经有许多地方法规试图阻止病毒。我们的经验证据是从2020年2月21日至6月14日在意大利地区和自治省会议上收集的一个语料库中获得的,该语料库是在已发布的所有640项COVID-19地区法规的基础上建立的。我们通过固定效应、混合效应和随机效应的F-GLS估计获得的结果表明,法规的可读性影响了大流行的传播,并且可读性的提高将导致更有效的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating Uncertainty: Multinationals’ Investment Strategies after the Pandemic Shock 应对不确定性:大流行冲击后跨国公司的投资策略
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00244-4
Chiara Bellucci, Armando Rungi
Abstract Recent debates suggest that the global economy may enter a deglobalization phase accelerated after COVID-19 and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This study investigates the investment decisions by multinational enterprises (MNEs) in 2019–2022. We build on a unique data set of about 2 million parent-affiliate linkages to show that there has been a general reorganization of MNEs’ investment strategies since: (i) a relevant share of divestments ( $$33%$$ 33 % ) has not been compensated by new investment decisions ( $$14%$$ 14 % ); (ii) domestic subsidiaries are more likely to be established and less likely to be divested; (iii) the average distance of a subsidiary from a parent company has increased; (iv) the number of countries in which the average MNE operates is higher than before. Therefore, after a basic empirical strategy for foreign direct investments and gravity controls, we first confirm a higher revealed preference for domestic investment by MNEs, among others, induced by higher exposure to COVID-19. When we delve deeper into divestment choices at the firm level, we find evidence of reshoring, i.e., when a divestment abroad by a parent company in a specific industry is positively associated with a domestic investment in the same industry.
最近的争论表明,在2019冠状病毒病和乌克兰持续冲突之后,全球经济可能进入一个加速的去全球化阶段。本研究考察了2019-2022年跨国企业的投资决策。我们建立在大约200万个母公司附属公司联系的独特数据集的基础上,表明跨国公司的投资战略在以下方面发生了总体重组:(i)撤资的相关份额($$33%$$ 33 % ) has not been compensated by new investment decisions ( $$14%$$ 14 % ); (ii) domestic subsidiaries are more likely to be established and less likely to be divested; (iii) the average distance of a subsidiary from a parent company has increased; (iv) the number of countries in which the average MNE operates is higher than before. Therefore, after a basic empirical strategy for foreign direct investments and gravity controls, we first confirm a higher revealed preference for domestic investment by MNEs, among others, induced by higher exposure to COVID-19. When we delve deeper into divestment choices at the firm level, we find evidence of reshoring, i.e., when a divestment abroad by a parent company in a specific industry is positively associated with a domestic investment in the same industry.
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引用次数: 1
The Ripple Effect of Sanctions: Exploring the Impact on Global Value Chains Using a Gravity Model 制裁的连锁反应:利用重力模型探讨对全球价值链的影响
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00242-6
Randolph Luca Bruno, Maria Cipollina, Silvia Dal Bianco
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引用次数: 1
The Making of Public Works in Italy: Institutional Features and Regional Characteristics 意大利公共工程建设:制度特征与地域特征
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00241-7
A. Baltrunaite, T. Orlando, G. Rovigatti
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引用次数: 0
Connecting Eurasian Supply Chains the Impact of Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine War on the EU-China Rail Landbridge 连接欧亚供应链——新冠肺炎和俄乌战争对中欧铁路陆桥的影响
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00239-1
Richard Pomfret
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引用次数: 1
Noneconomic Objectives, Global Value Chains and International Cooperation 非经济目标、全球价值链与国际合作
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00240-8
Bernard M. Hoekman, P. Mavroidis, Douglas R. Nelson
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引用次数: 1
Political Manipulation Behind the COVID-19 ‘Color Code’ in Italy? 意大利新冠肺炎“颜色代码”背后的政治操纵?
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-26 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00238-2
G. Busetta, F. Fiorillo
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引用次数: 0
Ownership, Governance, Management and Firm Performance: Evidence from Italian Firms 所有权、治理、管理与企业绩效:来自意大利企业的证据
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1007/s40797-023-00237-3
A. Baltrunaite, S. Formai, A. Linarello, S. Mocetti
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引用次数: 1
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