When the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced COVID-19 to be a global pandemic great chaos was brought to the world economy, with institutions and economies forced to close down in a bid to save lives. While it was a well-known fact that there was no immediate cure for the disease, institutions had no option but to utilise non-traditional means of containing the alarming spread of the virus. All around the world, institutions like the health sector and central banks utilised various forecast models as a way of projecting the scale of the spread of the virus and its overall impact on economic well-being. The findings from the ARIMA (4,1,4) model indicate that there is a likelihood of the virus spreading at a rate of 13 contracted cases per day up to 28th February 2021 and beyond. The key take home from this study shows that institutions, particularly the health sector, must stay alert to ensure measures are continually set in place to curb the likelihood of the virus spreading above and beyond the projected estimate. At the same time, institutional support from the central bank, with its stimulus packages, should continue in a bid to diffuse or allay worries of a possible collapse in the economy.
{"title":"Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation","authors":"Emerson Abraham Jackson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3776050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3776050","url":null,"abstract":"When the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced COVID-19 to be a global pandemic great chaos was brought to the world economy, with institutions and economies forced to close down in a bid to save lives. While it was a well-known fact that there was no immediate cure for the disease, institutions had no option but to utilise non-traditional means of containing the alarming spread of the virus. All around the world, institutions like the health sector and central banks utilised various forecast models as a way of projecting the scale of the spread of the virus and its overall impact on economic well-being. The findings from the ARIMA (4,1,4) model indicate that there is a likelihood of the virus spreading at a rate of 13 contracted cases per day up to 28th February 2021 and beyond. The key take home from this study shows that institutions, particularly the health sector, must stay alert to ensure measures are continually set in place to curb the likelihood of the virus spreading above and beyond the projected estimate. At the same time, institutional support from the central bank, with its stimulus packages, should continue in a bid to diffuse or allay worries of a possible collapse in the economy.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"117 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125993334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impact of bureaucratic corruption on economic growth of a small open economy. The economy is composed of two types of households (the workers and the officials) and two sectors (the industrial sector and public sector). Corruption may occur in different parts of the economy. We built a model for analyzing the role of corruption on economic growth, income and wealth distribution between the officials and workers. The model takes account of corruption in the capital market, the labor market, and production sector. It describes dynamic interactions of growth, corruption with endogenous tax rate and different exogenous corruption rates. We simulate motion of the dynamic system and demonstrate how an increase of corruption in the production sector, in the labor market, and other parameters affect the transitory process and long-run state of economic growth.
{"title":"Corruption and Public Service in an Extended Solowian Growth Model with Endogenous Labor Supply","authors":"Wei-bin Zhang","doi":"10.26650/jepr768781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr768781","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of bureaucratic corruption on economic growth of a small open economy. The economy is composed of two types of households (the workers and the officials) and two sectors (the industrial sector and public sector). Corruption may occur in different parts of the economy. We built a model for analyzing the role of corruption on economic growth, income and wealth distribution between the officials and workers. The model takes account of corruption in the capital market, the labor market, and production sector. It describes dynamic interactions of growth, corruption with endogenous tax rate and different exogenous corruption rates. We simulate motion of the dynamic system and demonstrate how an increase of corruption in the production sector, in the labor market, and other parameters affect the transitory process and long-run state of economic growth.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124421148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emerson Abraham Jackson, Edmund Tamuke, Augustine Ngombu, Mohamed Jabbie
The main research question of this paper is to assess Sierra Leone’s preparedness for adopting a fully-fledged or lite Inflation Targeting (IT) framework amid macroeconomic and structural bottlenecks experienced in the domestic economy. Several theoretical and empirical perspectives were reviewed to bring out cogent insights on the subject matter. With the use of the Unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, relevant macroeconomic variables ranging from 2010Q2 to 2019Q4 were utilised to assess plausible outcomes, aided with some iterative shock impulses, variance decomposition, and historical decomposition, to explain the reaction of inflation to specific factors in Sierra Leone. The study outcome suggests that Sierra Leone as a supply-driven economy is inducing a high level of inflation on account of the pass-through effect of high prices to consumers in the domestic economy. This to a greater extent is undermining monetary policy management, which gives credence to the fact that authorities at the Bank of Sierra Leone should not switch to inflation targeting in the short and medium-term on the basis that monetary policy actions could instigate further price increases of goods and services, underpinned by weak real sector operations and a somewhat dollarized domestic market. At best, there is a need for BSL to continue its current policy methodology, while working in ensuring monetary policy actions are transparent and wel
{"title":"Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse","authors":"Emerson Abraham Jackson, Edmund Tamuke, Augustine Ngombu, Mohamed Jabbie","doi":"10.26650/jepr735604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr735604","url":null,"abstract":"The main research question of this paper is to assess Sierra Leone’s preparedness for adopting a fully-fledged or lite Inflation Targeting (IT) framework amid macroeconomic and structural bottlenecks experienced in the domestic economy. Several theoretical and empirical perspectives were reviewed to bring out cogent insights on the subject matter. With the use of the Unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, relevant macroeconomic variables ranging from 2010Q2 to 2019Q4 were utilised to assess plausible outcomes, aided with some iterative shock impulses, variance decomposition, and historical decomposition, to explain the reaction of inflation to specific factors in Sierra Leone. The study outcome suggests that Sierra Leone as a supply-driven economy is inducing a high level of inflation on account of the pass-through effect of high prices to consumers in the domestic economy. This to a greater extent is undermining monetary policy management, which gives credence to the fact that authorities at the Bank of Sierra Leone should not switch to inflation targeting in the short and medium-term on the basis that monetary policy actions could instigate further price increases of goods and services, underpinned by weak real sector operations and a somewhat dollarized domestic market. At best, there is a need for BSL to continue its current policy methodology, while working in ensuring monetary policy actions are transparent and wel","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117195854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Son donemde yukselen ekonomiler arasinda yer alan Turkiye’nin ekonomik buyumesinin yavasladigi ve para biriminin asiri deger kaybettigi gorulmektedir. Bankacilik sektorunun doviz kurlarindaki oynakliga karsi duyarliliginin yuksek olmasi, sektor performansini ve faaliyetlerini etkilemektedir. Kur ve bankacilik krizleri ile iliskili yapilan analizlerde, kur dalgalanmalari ile bankacilik krizleri arasindaki iliskiye odaklanilmakta ama banka performansi uzerindeki etkiler goz ardi edilmektedir. Bu bakimdan kur hareketlerinin banka performansina etkileri onemli ve uzerinde az durulan bir arastirma konusu olmaktadir. Calismada Turkiye’de doviz kurundaki oynakligin bankacilik sektorunun performansi uzerindeki etkisi incelenecektir. 2007-2016 yillar arasi aylik kur verileri ile net faiz marji, aktif getirisi ve oz kaynak getirisi gibi bankacilik sistemi temelli verileri kapsayan bir orneklem analiz edilmistir. Analizlerde Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran v.d. (2001) onerdigi ARDL modeli kullanilmistir. Ulasilan bulgular; kurlar ile bankacilik sisteminin performansi arasinda uzun donemli bir iliski olmadigini gostermistir. Kur artislarinin bankacilik sektorunun performansini etkilemedigi belirlendiginden, sektorun kur riskine karsi dayanikli oldugu sonucuna varilmistir. Turk bankacilik sektorunun vadeli islem piyasasinda yogunlasmasi, kur riskine duyarliligi olan islemleri kisitlayici duzenlemeler uygulanmasi ve Basel III standartlarina uyum surecinin hizlandirilmasi ile daha saglam bir altyapiya kavusabilecektir.
{"title":"Döviz Kurlarının Bankacılık Sektörünün Performansı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği (2007-2016)","authors":"Asef Yelghi","doi":"10.26650/jepr641975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr641975","url":null,"abstract":"Son donemde yukselen ekonomiler arasinda yer alan Turkiye’nin ekonomik buyumesinin yavasladigi ve para biriminin asiri deger kaybettigi gorulmektedir. Bankacilik sektorunun doviz kurlarindaki oynakliga karsi duyarliliginin yuksek olmasi, sektor performansini ve faaliyetlerini etkilemektedir. Kur ve bankacilik krizleri ile iliskili yapilan analizlerde, kur dalgalanmalari ile bankacilik krizleri arasindaki iliskiye odaklanilmakta ama banka performansi uzerindeki etkiler goz ardi edilmektedir. Bu bakimdan kur hareketlerinin banka performansina etkileri onemli ve uzerinde az durulan bir arastirma konusu olmaktadir. Calismada Turkiye’de doviz kurundaki oynakligin bankacilik sektorunun performansi uzerindeki etkisi incelenecektir. 2007-2016 yillar arasi aylik kur verileri ile net faiz marji, aktif getirisi ve oz kaynak getirisi gibi bankacilik sistemi temelli verileri kapsayan bir orneklem analiz edilmistir. Analizlerde Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran v.d. (2001) onerdigi ARDL modeli kullanilmistir. Ulasilan bulgular; kurlar ile bankacilik sisteminin performansi arasinda uzun donemli bir iliski olmadigini gostermistir. Kur artislarinin bankacilik sektorunun performansini etkilemedigi belirlendiginden, sektorun kur riskine karsi dayanikli oldugu sonucuna varilmistir. Turk bankacilik sektorunun vadeli islem piyasasinda yogunlasmasi, kur riskine duyarliligi olan islemleri kisitlayici duzenlemeler uygulanmasi ve Basel III standartlarina uyum surecinin hizlandirilmasi ile daha saglam bir altyapiya kavusabilecektir.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129493358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic theory addresses unemployment as one of the crucial macroeconomic problems. Given the contributions to the production process, labor market integration of youth population is one of the main focuses of the labor economics literature. In this direction, a great number of studies have analyzed the dynamics of youth unemployment in the Turkish economy. However, a limited number of studies have investigated the issue in the case of Turkey with respect to gender using micro-level data. Given this knowledge, this study attempts to examine the determinants of the youth unemployment in 26 regions categorized under NUTS-2 over the period 2014-2019, and investigate whether those determinants vary by gender. Estimation results indicate that per capita income negatively affects both the total youth unemployment and youth unemployment by gender. Relative cohort size and internal migration positively affects all of the three youth unemployment categories. An increase in inflation rate increases youth female unemployment whereas youth male unemployment decreases with inflation. In addition, while an increase in age at first marriage increases youth female unemployment, it decreases youth male unemployment. Overall, the findings reveal that the impact that regional youth unemployment dynamics has on youth female unemployment is greater than on youth male unemployment. This study emphasizes that gender-based differences should be taken into account while developing policies towards the integration of youth into the labor market.
{"title":"Türkiye’de Bölgesel Genç İşsizlik: Belirleyiciler Cinsiyete Göre Değişken mi?","authors":"Mert Topçu, Lütfi Biçimveren","doi":"10.26650/jepr727340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr727340","url":null,"abstract":"Economic theory addresses unemployment as one of the crucial macroeconomic problems. Given the contributions to the production process, labor market integration of youth population is one of the main focuses of the labor economics literature. In this direction, a great number of studies have analyzed the dynamics of youth unemployment in the Turkish economy. However, a limited number of studies have investigated the issue in the case of Turkey with respect to gender using micro-level data. Given this knowledge, this study attempts to examine the determinants of the youth unemployment in 26 regions categorized under NUTS-2 over the period 2014-2019, and investigate whether those determinants vary by gender. Estimation results indicate that per capita income negatively affects both the total youth unemployment and youth unemployment by gender. Relative cohort size and internal migration positively affects all of the three youth unemployment categories. An increase in inflation rate increases youth female unemployment whereas youth male unemployment decreases with inflation. In addition, while an increase in age at first marriage increases youth female unemployment, it decreases youth male unemployment. Overall, the findings reveal that the impact that regional youth unemployment dynamics has on youth female unemployment is greater than on youth male unemployment. This study emphasizes that gender-based differences should be taken into account while developing policies towards the integration of youth into the labor market.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121476692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
North Africa region is one of the wealthiest areas due to its natural resources and strategic location. But, it is still fragile according to economic indicators, especially investment environment and foreign direct investment, “FDI”, which represents a considerable challenge for governments and policymakers in these countries. This study investigates the main variables and policies that affect FDI inflows and evaluates the effectiveness of these policies on attracting FDI inflows in five North African countries, namely Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. To achieve that aim, a panel data of North Africa countries is used within the timeframe of 1996 to 2013, the study has adopted three types of FDI related variables that may affect host country attractiveness: economic variables, institutional variables, and political variables. Also, we have investigated the influence of two kinds of investment policies on FDI: domestic FDI policies, and international FDI policies. The results indicate that the trade liberalization policies and integration into global business have a positive and significant correlation with FDI inflows growth. Additionally, the study also found that increasing domestic investment in host countries attracts more FDI. and adopting more efficient investment policies (investment freedom policies) are statistically significant and have a positive impact on FDI inflows growth in the North Africa region.
{"title":"Policies and Variables affecting FDI: A Panel Data Analysis of North African Countries","authors":"Ahmed Musabeh, Mehdi Zouaoui","doi":"10.26650/jepr635016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr635016","url":null,"abstract":"North Africa region is one of the wealthiest areas due to its natural resources and strategic location. But, it is still fragile according to economic indicators, especially investment environment and foreign direct investment, “FDI”, which represents a considerable challenge for governments and policymakers in these countries. This study investigates the main variables and policies that affect FDI inflows and evaluates the effectiveness of these policies on attracting FDI inflows in five North African countries, namely Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. To achieve that aim, a panel data of North Africa countries is used within the timeframe of 1996 to 2013, the study has adopted three types of FDI related variables that may affect host country attractiveness: economic variables, institutional variables, and political variables. Also, we have investigated the influence of two kinds of investment policies on FDI: domestic FDI policies, and international FDI policies. The results indicate that the trade liberalization policies and integration into global business have a positive and significant correlation with FDI inflows growth. Additionally, the study also found that increasing domestic investment in host countries attracts more FDI. and adopting more efficient investment policies (investment freedom policies) are statistically significant and have a positive impact on FDI inflows growth in the North Africa region.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121683697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The UK’s low levels of output per hour of labour and their productivity relative to other advanced economies is a matter for concern. The UK’s productivity is a little over three-quarters that of Germany, the US, and France, and the about same as Italy. Furthermore, according to the OECD, it has been stagnant since 2007. Productivity is an important macroeconomic indicator as it demonstrates the output that an economy can generate using existing resources. It is generally acknowledged that technological progress, new research and technology can lead to higher investment and growth rates. Productivity refers to the quantity of goods and services that can be produced by a worker in a given period of time. For any economy, it is important to ensure rapid growth and a long-term trend of increased productivity. Indeed, this is particularly important for advanced economies where it is crucial to increase productivity in order to remain globally competitive. The study concludes that the UK’s growth in productivity has been very slow relative to other major economies, and as a result the UK, which was already behind many other G7 countries, has fallen even further behind. This study suggests that a stronger and more viable manufacturing sector would help to build structural balance in the economy and to move it away from an over-reliance on the financial sector. To achieve this would require active state polices to increase investment in R&D, innovation and skills.
{"title":"A Perspective on Productivity Growth and Challenges for the UK Economy","authors":"Kalim Siddiqui","doi":"10.26650/jepr650998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr650998","url":null,"abstract":"The UK’s low levels of output per hour of labour and their productivity relative to other advanced economies is a matter for concern. The UK’s productivity is a little over three-quarters that of Germany, the US, and France, and the about same as Italy. Furthermore, according to the OECD, it has been stagnant since 2007. Productivity is an important macroeconomic indicator as it demonstrates the output that an economy can generate using existing resources. It is generally acknowledged that technological progress, new research and technology can lead to higher investment and growth rates. Productivity refers to the quantity of goods and services that can be produced by a worker in a given period of time. For any economy, it is important to ensure rapid growth and a long-term trend of increased productivity. Indeed, this is particularly important for advanced economies where it is crucial to increase productivity in order to remain globally competitive. The study concludes that the UK’s growth in productivity has been very slow relative to other major economies, and as a result the UK, which was already behind many other G7 countries, has fallen even further behind. This study suggests that a stronger and more viable manufacturing sector would help to build structural balance in the economy and to move it away from an over-reliance on the financial sector. To achieve this would require active state polices to increase investment in R&D, innovation and skills.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120919917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reel Faiz Oranı ve Gelir Eşitsizliği Üzerindeki Etkisi","authors":"Muhammet Sait Bozik","doi":"10.26650/JEPR572329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR572329","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125904431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kuresellesen dunya pazarinda ulkelerin ekonomik buyumelerini saglayabilmeleri adina ticaret ve sanayi alaninda yaptiklari gelismeler buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Bu hareketle ticaretin serbestlesmesi uluslararasi ticaretin genel itibariyle seyrini olumlu yonde etkilemistir. Uluslararasi ticaretin ulkeler ve firmalar arasinda rekabet yaratan bir unsur haline gelmesinin sonucu olarak da lojistik dikkat cekmektedir. Bu gelismeler dogrultusunda uluslararasi ticaretin istenen boyutlarda ve surdurulebilir olmasi icin lojistik sektoru stratejik bir boyut kazanmakta ve ekonomide kaldirac gorevi gormektedir. Lojistik sektoru, ulke ekonomisi uzerinde yatirimlar, istihdam ve milli gelir konularinda sahip oldugu etki ve kuresellesen ticaret aglari sayesinde gosterdigi gelisme ile yogun sekilde dikkat ceken sektorler arasindadir. Ozellikle rekabet gucunu artirmayi amaclayan isletmeler ve ulkeler sektorun gelisimi icin ciddi yatirimlar yapmakta ve sektorun muhtemel getirileri konusunda buyuk beklentilere girmektedir. Yapilan yatirimlar ve beklentiler sonucu ozellikle uretim faaliyeti gerceklestiren sektorler lojistik degiskenlerden fazlasiyla etkilenmektedir. Diger taraftan lojistik icin yapilan yatirimlar isletmelerin veya ulkelerin ticari olusumlarini da dogrudan olumlu yonde etkilemekte ve ticaret hacimlerini artirmalarina araci olmaktadir. Lojistigin isletmeler ve ulkeler icin onemi ulkelerin gerceklestirdigi uluslararasi ticaretleri icin de gunden gune gelisme gostermekte ve vazgecilmesi mumkun olmayan bir noktaya varmaktadir. Lojistigin ulkeler icin onemi ulkelerin var olduklari cografyalar ve sahip olduklari lojistik imkânlari acisindan degiskenlik gosterebilmektedir. Ozellikle denize kiyisi olan ve bu sayede deniz tasimaciligi ile lojistik akisini verimli bir sekilde gerceklestirebilen ulkelerin uluslararasi ticaretlerinde daha buyuk kazanc elde ettigi gozlemlenmektedir. Diger taraftan ayni bolgede var olan ulkelerin ekonomik ve ticari acidan benzerlik gosterdigi de soylenebilir. Bu kapsamda yapilan calismada lojistik faaliyetlerinde var olan ortak nokta ve ekonomik acidan birbirlerine benzerlik gostermektedirler. Ulkelerin ekonomik acidan buyuklukleri ve lojistik faaliyetlerinin ilgili ulkelerin ekonomik buyuklugune etkisini inceleyebilmek amaciyla Akdeniz’e kiyisi olan 15 ulke ekonomisine lojistik sektorunun etkisi 1980 - 2018 donemi icin lojistik performans endeksi ve gayri safi yurtici hâsila degerleri ile panel veri analizi kullanilarak incelenmistir. Calismada 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014 ve 2016 yillarini kapsayan analiz sonuclarinda orta seviyede pozitif yonlu bir iliskiye ve gayri safi yurtici hâsilada yasanan degismelerin %32 oranindaki kisminin lojistik performans endeksi ile aciklanabildigine ulasilmistir. Diger taraftan ulkeler bazinda yapilan analizlerde Turkiye ve Arnavutluk icin lojistik performans endeksi ile gayri safi yurtici hâsila arasindaki en yuksek iliski elde edilmistir. Turkiye ve Arnavutluk ulkelerinin gayri safi yurtici hâsila deger
{"title":"Lojistik Faaliyetlerin Akdeniz Ülke Ekonomileri ile İlişkisi","authors":"Şule Güngör, Elifcan Dursun, Ahmet Karaoğlan","doi":"10.26650/JEPR578094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR578094","url":null,"abstract":"Kuresellesen dunya pazarinda ulkelerin ekonomik buyumelerini saglayabilmeleri adina ticaret ve sanayi alaninda yaptiklari gelismeler buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Bu hareketle ticaretin serbestlesmesi uluslararasi ticaretin genel itibariyle seyrini olumlu yonde etkilemistir. Uluslararasi ticaretin ulkeler ve firmalar arasinda rekabet yaratan bir unsur haline gelmesinin sonucu olarak da lojistik dikkat cekmektedir. Bu gelismeler dogrultusunda uluslararasi ticaretin istenen boyutlarda ve surdurulebilir olmasi icin lojistik sektoru stratejik bir boyut kazanmakta ve ekonomide kaldirac gorevi gormektedir. Lojistik sektoru, ulke ekonomisi uzerinde yatirimlar, istihdam ve milli gelir konularinda sahip oldugu etki ve kuresellesen ticaret aglari sayesinde gosterdigi gelisme ile yogun sekilde dikkat ceken sektorler arasindadir. Ozellikle rekabet gucunu artirmayi amaclayan isletmeler ve ulkeler sektorun gelisimi icin ciddi yatirimlar yapmakta ve sektorun muhtemel getirileri konusunda buyuk beklentilere girmektedir. Yapilan yatirimlar ve beklentiler sonucu ozellikle uretim faaliyeti gerceklestiren sektorler lojistik degiskenlerden fazlasiyla etkilenmektedir. Diger taraftan lojistik icin yapilan yatirimlar isletmelerin veya ulkelerin ticari olusumlarini da dogrudan olumlu yonde etkilemekte ve ticaret hacimlerini artirmalarina araci olmaktadir. Lojistigin isletmeler ve ulkeler icin onemi ulkelerin gerceklestirdigi uluslararasi ticaretleri icin de gunden gune gelisme gostermekte ve vazgecilmesi mumkun olmayan bir noktaya varmaktadir. Lojistigin ulkeler icin onemi ulkelerin var olduklari cografyalar ve sahip olduklari lojistik imkânlari acisindan degiskenlik gosterebilmektedir. Ozellikle denize kiyisi olan ve bu sayede deniz tasimaciligi ile lojistik akisini verimli bir sekilde gerceklestirebilen ulkelerin uluslararasi ticaretlerinde daha buyuk kazanc elde ettigi gozlemlenmektedir. Diger taraftan ayni bolgede var olan ulkelerin ekonomik ve ticari acidan benzerlik gosterdigi de soylenebilir. Bu kapsamda yapilan calismada lojistik faaliyetlerinde var olan ortak nokta ve ekonomik acidan birbirlerine benzerlik gostermektedirler. Ulkelerin ekonomik acidan buyuklukleri ve lojistik faaliyetlerinin ilgili ulkelerin ekonomik buyuklugune etkisini inceleyebilmek amaciyla Akdeniz’e kiyisi olan 15 ulke ekonomisine lojistik sektorunun etkisi 1980 - 2018 donemi icin lojistik performans endeksi ve gayri safi yurtici hâsila degerleri ile panel veri analizi kullanilarak incelenmistir. Calismada 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014 ve 2016 yillarini kapsayan analiz sonuclarinda orta seviyede pozitif yonlu bir iliskiye ve gayri safi yurtici hâsilada yasanan degismelerin %32 oranindaki kisminin lojistik performans endeksi ile aciklanabildigine ulasilmistir. Diger taraftan ulkeler bazinda yapilan analizlerde Turkiye ve Arnavutluk icin lojistik performans endeksi ile gayri safi yurtici hâsila arasindaki en yuksek iliski elde edilmistir. Turkiye ve Arnavutluk ulkelerinin gayri safi yurtici hâsila deger","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128546350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Son finansal kriz ekonomik teori ve politikayla ilgili onemli tartismalara yol acmistir. En onemli tartismalar ‘kriz neden ongorulemedi?’ sorusu uzerine yogunlasmistir. Bu cercevede calismada 2007-2008 kuresel finans krizinin neden ongorulemedigi sorusu 3 farkli gorusle ele alinmaktadir. Bu goruslerden ilki, krizin genel olarak iktisatcilar tarafindan ongorulemedigi ve son finansal krizin akademisyenler ve politika yapicilarin cogu icin surpriz olarak ortaya ciktigini ifade etmektedir. Diger bir gorus, krizin bazi iktisatcilar tarafindan ongoruldugu, fakat bu ongorulerin dikkate alinmadigi seklindedir. Son olarak ve tumuyle farkli bir gorus ise iktisadin/iktisatcilarin kriz ongorusunde bulunmasinin gerek olmadigini ifade eden yaklasimdir. Calisma ayrica, iktisatcilarin ekonomiyi analiz etme ve analizlerini formule etmede kullandiklari yontemlerin de bir tartismasini sunmaktadir.
{"title":"2007-2008 Küresel Finansal Krizin Öngörülebilirliği Üzerine Tartışmalar","authors":"Gulden Poyraz","doi":"10.26650/JEPR573664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR573664","url":null,"abstract":"Son finansal kriz ekonomik teori ve politikayla ilgili onemli tartismalara yol acmistir. En onemli tartismalar ‘kriz neden ongorulemedi?’ sorusu uzerine yogunlasmistir. Bu cercevede calismada 2007-2008 kuresel finans krizinin neden ongorulemedigi sorusu 3 farkli gorusle ele alinmaktadir. Bu goruslerden ilki, krizin genel olarak iktisatcilar tarafindan ongorulemedigi ve son finansal krizin akademisyenler ve politika yapicilarin cogu icin surpriz olarak ortaya ciktigini ifade etmektedir. Diger bir gorus, krizin bazi iktisatcilar tarafindan ongoruldugu, fakat bu ongorulerin dikkate alinmadigi seklindedir. Son olarak ve tumuyle farkli bir gorus ise iktisadin/iktisatcilarin kriz ongorusunde bulunmasinin gerek olmadigini ifade eden yaklasimdir. Calisma ayrica, iktisatcilarin ekonomiyi analiz etme ve analizlerini formule etmede kullandiklari yontemlerin de bir tartismasini sunmaktadir.","PeriodicalId":431566,"journal":{"name":"İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi - Journal of Economic Policy Researches","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133682749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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