In this note we provide new evidence regarding the size and dynamics of the credit risk premium on Irish Sovereign bonds during the 1980s and early 1990s when fiscal conditions were similar to those currently being experienced. Our analysis is not confounded by the effects of exchange rate risk since it is based on yield spreads of foreign issues of Irish bonds. We find that there was a surprisingly small but significant risk premium related to expected future fiscal instability. We discuss why recent sovereign credit risk conditions seem to be in such stark contrast with the past experience.
{"title":"A Note on the Credit Risk Component of Yields on Irish Sovereign Bonds Issued in Foreign Currencies","authors":"E. Casey, Peter G. Dunne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2009802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2009802","url":null,"abstract":"In this note we provide new evidence regarding the size and dynamics of the credit risk premium on Irish Sovereign bonds during the 1980s and early 1990s when fiscal conditions were similar to those currently being experienced. Our analysis is not confounded by the effects of exchange rate risk since it is based on yield spreads of foreign issues of Irish bonds. We find that there was a surprisingly small but significant risk premium related to expected future fiscal instability. We discuss why recent sovereign credit risk conditions seem to be in such stark contrast with the past experience.","PeriodicalId":433744,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Deficit; Surplus (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121580770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the implications of government deficits in an overlapping generations consumption loan model with longterm assets. The only asset in the economy is a real consol issued by the government and serviced by lumpsum taxes on the young. We explore here the time path of short and longterm interest rates following the announcement of a future,transitory budget deficit under two alternative assumptions. In one case the deficit arises from transitory government spending, in the other case from a transfer.We show that a deficit policy ultimately raises longterm interest rates and lowers consol prices. The exact shape of the path of short-term rates depends on the source of the deficit and on the saving response to interestrates. In general, though, the term structure will be v-shaped. The interest of the model resides in the fact that the prices of longterm assets link the current generations to future disturbances. Because future disturbances affect future interest rates they affect the current value of debt outstanding and hence equilibrium short-term rates. The exact manner in which the disturbances are transmitted to prior periods depends on the extent to which consumers substitute easily across time or, on the contrary, have a strong preference for consumption smoothing.
{"title":"Anticipated Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Interest Rates","authors":"Daniel Valente Dantas, R. Dornbusch","doi":"10.3386/W1518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W1518","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the implications of government deficits in an overlapping generations consumption loan model with longterm assets. The only asset in the economy is a real consol issued by the government and serviced by lumpsum taxes on the young. We explore here the time path of short and longterm interest rates following the announcement of a future,transitory budget deficit under two alternative assumptions. In one case the deficit arises from transitory government spending, in the other case from a transfer.We show that a deficit policy ultimately raises longterm interest rates and lowers consol prices. The exact shape of the path of short-term rates depends on the source of the deficit and on the saving response to interestrates. In general, though, the term structure will be v-shaped. The interest of the model resides in the fact that the prices of longterm assets link the current generations to future disturbances. Because future disturbances affect future interest rates they affect the current value of debt outstanding and hence equilibrium short-term rates. The exact manner in which the disturbances are transmitted to prior periods depends on the extent to which consumers substitute easily across time or, on the contrary, have a strong preference for consumption smoothing.","PeriodicalId":433744,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Deficit; Surplus (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123917142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The main objective of this paper is to understand and to evaluate recently expressed popular anxiety about large American fiscal deficits. The paper begins with a discussion of problems involved in measuring the fiscal deficit. A general conclusion is that all interesting measures of the federal fiscal deficit have increased substantially over the past eight presidential terms and are likely to increase further in the near future. The paper goes on to analyze possible connections between fiscal deficits and inflation, economic growth, and fluctuations in the level and composition of economic activity. Important conclusions are that monetary policy, inflation, and aggregate economic activity are all largely independent of the fiscal deficit, but that the fiscal deficit can have major effects on the division of output between consumption and investment. Key elements in the analysis are the effects of taxation on consumption and investment demands and the relations between real and financial developments.
{"title":"The American Fiscal Deficit: Facts and Effects","authors":"Herschel I. Grossman","doi":"10.3386/W0934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W0934","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this paper is to understand and to evaluate recently expressed popular anxiety about large American fiscal deficits. The paper begins with a discussion of problems involved in measuring the fiscal deficit. A general conclusion is that all interesting measures of the federal fiscal deficit have increased substantially over the past eight presidential terms and are likely to increase further in the near future. The paper goes on to analyze possible connections between fiscal deficits and inflation, economic growth, and fluctuations in the level and composition of economic activity. Important conclusions are that monetary policy, inflation, and aggregate economic activity are all largely independent of the fiscal deficit, but that the fiscal deficit can have major effects on the division of output between consumption and investment. Key elements in the analysis are the effects of taxation on consumption and investment demands and the relations between real and financial developments.","PeriodicalId":433744,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Deficit; Surplus (Topic)","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1982-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124888226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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