{"title":"Locational arbitrage strategies for Shanghai crude futures","authors":"H. Geman, John Miller, Yuanye Ma","doi":"10.21314/jem.2023.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jem.2023.020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67704495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A multivariate model for hybrid wind–photovoltaic power production with energy portfolio optimization","authors":"Laura Casula, G. D’Amico, G. Masala, F. Petroni","doi":"10.21314/jem.2022.015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jem.2022.015","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67704700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamics of biofuel prices on the European market: the impact of EU environmental policy on resources markets","authors":"F. Declerck, Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian, F. Lantz","doi":"10.21314/jem.2022.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jem.2022.010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67704229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Julien, Haikel Khalfallah, Virginie Pignon, S. Robin, Carine Staropoli
{"title":"An experimental study of capacity remuneration mechanisms in the electricity industry","authors":"C. Julien, Haikel Khalfallah, Virginie Pignon, S. Robin, Carine Staropoli","doi":"10.21314/jem.2023.018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jem.2023.018","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67704339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2018, the Canadian province of Alberta introduced a revamped carbon pricing regime – the Carbon Competitiveness Incentives Regulation (CCIR) – for large industrial emitters. This regulation set product benchmark emissions intensities and required that facilities purchase emissions credits for the portion of emissions that fell above that product benchmark. With a focus on Alberta’s oil and gas industry, this paper assesses mechanisms used under the CCIR to address competitiveness-driven carbon leakage for emissions-intensive and trade-exposed sectors. These mechanisms include exclusions, output-based allocations and financial compensation in the form of market-based compliance flexibility and access to innovation funding. The CCIR also provided additional cost containment for facilities that demonstrated significant economic risk resulting from carbon compliance costs. The output-based allocation, which is the primary policy mechanism for addressing competitiveness, is compared with the carbon pricing system in California. This review suggests that the CCIR failed to provide evidence that emission allocation levels were sufficient to mitigate carbon leakage. Further, the system’s definition of competitiveness failed to incorporate the ability to attract new investment, which is particularly important for the oil and gas sector due to its capital-intensive nature. Understanding policy options for protecting industry competitiveness from carbon pricing may help to inform future regulatory design that mitigates the likelihood of carbon leakage.
{"title":"Addressing Competitiveness of Emissions-intensive and Trade-exposed Sectors: A Review of Alberta’s Carbon Pricing System","authors":"T. Tarnoczi","doi":"10.21314/JEM.2020.219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JEM.2020.219","url":null,"abstract":"In 2018, the Canadian province of Alberta introduced a revamped carbon pricing regime – the Carbon Competitiveness Incentives Regulation (CCIR) – for large industrial emitters. This regulation set product benchmark emissions intensities and required that facilities purchase emissions credits for the portion of emissions that fell above that product benchmark. With a focus on Alberta’s oil and gas industry, this paper assesses mechanisms used under the CCIR to address competitiveness-driven carbon leakage for emissions-intensive and trade-exposed sectors. These mechanisms include exclusions, output-based allocations and financial compensation in the form of market-based compliance flexibility and access to innovation funding. The CCIR also provided additional cost containment for facilities that demonstrated significant economic risk resulting from carbon compliance costs. The output-based allocation, which is the primary policy mechanism for addressing competitiveness, is compared with the carbon pricing system in California. This review suggests that the CCIR failed to provide evidence that emission allocation levels were sufficient to mitigate carbon leakage. Further, the system’s definition of competitiveness failed to incorporate the ability to attract new investment, which is particularly important for the oil and gas sector due to its capital-intensive nature. Understanding policy options for protecting industry competitiveness from carbon pricing may help to inform future regulatory design that mitigates the likelihood of carbon leakage.","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46886345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mehdi Seraj, Muhammad Mar’I, Abdulkareem Alhassan, Fatma Turuc
This study examines the causal link between the crude oil price and the exchange rate in five major oil-exporting countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the United States) that have recently adopted different exchange rate policies. Using a nonlinear causality approach, quantile-on-quantile, with monthly data from April 1996 to January 2020, we find causal relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates across quantiles in all of the countries studied. A plausible explanation for such findings is that these countries are oil exporters who depend largely on the proceeds of the oil trade. Any shocks in the oil market that affect oil production and price translate to exchange rate fluctuations in these countries. Meanwhile, the effect of the oil price on the exchange rate is diverse and heterogeneous depending on the country’s level of crude oil production and consumption, its exchange rate policies and the strength of its economy.
{"title":"Causality Between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: A Quantile-on-quantile Analysis","authors":"Mehdi Seraj, Muhammad Mar’I, Abdulkareem Alhassan, Fatma Turuc","doi":"10.21314/JEM.2020.220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JEM.2020.220","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the causal link between the crude oil price and the exchange rate in five major oil-exporting countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the United States) that have recently adopted different exchange rate policies. Using a nonlinear causality approach, quantile-on-quantile, with monthly data from April 1996 to January 2020, we find causal relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates across quantiles in all of the countries studied. A plausible explanation for such findings is that these countries are oil exporters who depend largely on the proceeds of the oil trade. Any shocks in the oil market that affect oil production and price translate to exchange rate fluctuations in these countries. Meanwhile, the effect of the oil price on the exchange rate is diverse and heterogeneous depending on the country’s level of crude oil production and consumption, its exchange rate policies and the strength of its economy.","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47231365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Schönheit, Constantin Dierstein, D. Möst, Lisa Lorenz
The day-ahead trading of electricity necessitates that cross-border capacities limit inter-zonal exchanges. To construct trading domains, two-day-ahead congestion forecasts for the electricity grid are needed. These comprise nodal predictions for load as well as renewable and conventional power generation, from which line flows can be derived. Trading domains limit deviations from the predicted line flows to respect physical grid constraints, requiring an accurate prediction of unit-specific power outputs. This analysis explores various statistical and statistical learning methods, with the goal of adequately predicting the on/off status and power output levels of all power plants within a control zone. The methods are tested for 205 conventional generating units in Germany using forecast values of fundamental variables, namely, load, renewable energy generation and the unavailabilities of power plants. For most units, the extra trees classifier achieves classification accuracy values of over 90% and a second-step extra trees regressor results in average errors of below 10% in relation to the installed capacities. Flexible units, especially hard coal, gas and pumped-storage hydropower plants, exhibit the largest errors. An analysis of errors suggests that load and solar generation are the main drivers of prediction deviations.
{"title":"Zone-wide Prediction of Generating Unit-specific Power Outputs for Electricity Grid Congestion Forecasts","authors":"David Schönheit, Constantin Dierstein, D. Möst, Lisa Lorenz","doi":"10.21314/JEM.2020.224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JEM.2020.224","url":null,"abstract":"The day-ahead trading of electricity necessitates that cross-border capacities limit inter-zonal exchanges. To construct trading domains, two-day-ahead congestion forecasts for the electricity grid are needed. These comprise nodal predictions for load as well as renewable and conventional power generation, from which line flows can be derived. Trading domains limit deviations from the predicted line flows to respect physical grid constraints, requiring an accurate prediction of unit-specific power outputs. This analysis explores various statistical and statistical learning methods, with the goal of adequately predicting the on/off status and power output levels of all power plants within a control zone. The methods are tested for 205 conventional generating units in Germany using forecast values of fundamental variables, namely, load, renewable energy generation and the unavailabilities of power plants. For most units, the extra trees classifier achieves classification accuracy values of over 90% and a second-step extra trees regressor results in average errors of below 10% in relation to the installed capacities. Flexible units, especially hard coal, gas and pumped-storage hydropower plants, exhibit the largest errors. An analysis of errors suggests that load and solar generation are the main drivers of prediction deviations.","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"355 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41279677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy markets are undergoing significant changes. Legacy systems developed around inflexible, centralized and monodirectional supplies are being replaced by flexible, distributed and bidirectional supply-and-demand systems. Where legacy systems are less entrenched, such as in decentralized renewable energy, flexibility and energy service markets, the pace of change is faster, and new technologies, business models and ideas are more likely to be tested and applied. This conceptual paper analyzes the changing governance of decentralized renewable energy, flexibility and energy services in the United Kingdom from a transaction cost perspective. Particular emphasis is placed on the impact of potentially disruptive innovations such as distributed ledgers, emerging digital technologies and big data analytics on the one hand, and the need for value creation from just and affordable decarbonization on the other. In doing so, this paper sheds light on some contradictions between current energy governance and the requirements for a decarbonized, decentralized, digitalized and democratized energy system. The paper concludes that energy governance is increasingly shaped by decentralization and digitalization, which can either facilitate or inhibit value creation through democratization (social value) and decarbonization (environmental value).
{"title":"Transaction Cost Analysis of Digital Innovation Governance in the UK Energy Market","authors":"Colin Nolden","doi":"10.21314/JEM.2019.194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JEM.2019.194","url":null,"abstract":"Energy markets are undergoing significant changes. Legacy systems developed around inflexible, centralized and monodirectional supplies are being replaced by flexible, distributed and bidirectional supply-and-demand systems. Where legacy systems are less entrenched, such as in decentralized renewable energy, flexibility and energy service markets, the pace of change is faster, and new technologies, business models and ideas are more likely to be tested and applied. This conceptual paper analyzes the changing governance of decentralized renewable energy, flexibility and energy services in the United Kingdom from a transaction cost perspective. Particular emphasis is placed on the impact of potentially disruptive innovations such as distributed ledgers, emerging digital technologies and big data analytics on the one hand, and the need for value creation from just and affordable decarbonization on the other. In doing so, this paper sheds light on some contradictions between current energy governance and the requirements for a decarbonized, decentralized, digitalized and democratized energy system. The paper concludes that energy governance is increasingly shaped by decentralization and digitalization, which can either facilitate or inhibit value creation through democratization (social value) and decarbonization (environmental value).<br>","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2019-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46978989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Debt and the oil industry: analysis on the firm and production level","authors":"J. Lips","doi":"10.21314/jem.2019.189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jem.2019.189","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67704113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Brazilian electricity market is characterized by having around 65% of its installed capacity coming from hydropower plants, with multiple agents coexisting in the same hydro cascades. Currently, it also contains certain peculiarities that distinguish it from other markets, such as the Energy Reallocation Mechanism (MRE), a centerpiece of the Brazilian market’s design. This paper proposes replacing the MRE with a bid-based short-term market called the virtual reservoir model. To simulate the behavior of the hydros in this new market, an agent-based model is implemented using the reinforcement Q-learning algorithm, simulated annealing and linear programming. In the simulations, we use real data – encompassing more than 98% of the total hydro installed capacity and three years of market data – from the Brazilian power system. The results indicate that the management of (virtual) reservoirs can be the responsibility of each hydro: these can save water according to their own risk perceptions, while maintaining current efficiency and security levels. The results also suggest that the final monthly short-term market prices can substantially decrease in comparison with the current prices.
{"title":"Improving the Brazilian Electricity Market: How to Replace the Centralized Dispatch by Decentralized Market-Based Bidding","authors":"Felipe A. Calabria, J. Saraiva, A. Rocha","doi":"10.21314/JEM.2018.173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JEM.2018.173","url":null,"abstract":"The Brazilian electricity market is characterized by having around 65% of its installed capacity coming from hydropower plants, with multiple agents coexisting in the same hydro cascades. Currently, it also contains certain peculiarities that distinguish it from other markets, such as the Energy Reallocation Mechanism (MRE), a centerpiece of the Brazilian market’s design. This paper proposes replacing the MRE with a bid-based short-term market called the virtual reservoir model. To simulate the behavior of the hydros in this new market, an agent-based model is implemented using the reinforcement Q-learning algorithm, simulated annealing and linear programming. In the simulations, we use real data – encompassing more than 98% of the total hydro installed capacity and three years of market data – from the Brazilian power system. The results indicate that the management of (virtual) reservoirs can be the responsibility of each hydro: these can save water according to their own risk perceptions, while maintaining current efficiency and security levels. The results also suggest that the final monthly short-term market prices can substantially decrease in comparison with the current prices.","PeriodicalId":43528,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Energy Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2018-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44087865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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