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The Impact of Foreigners’ Trades on Equity Prices: Evidence from Macedonian Stock Exchange 外国人交易对股票价格的影响:来自马其顿证券交易所的证据
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2020-0005
Julijana Angelovska
Abstract Emerging countries’ economies are dependent on foreign capital inflows. For policy makers and researchers of particular interest is to understand the nature of these flows and their impact on the domestic capital market. The first significant foreign inflows entered the Macedonian Stock Market at the end of 2004, and stock prices were increased. It was general belief among the investors that foreigners are driving the prices on the Macedonian Stock Market. This study examines the influence of foreign investors’ trades on stock returns in Macedonia using base broadening and price pressure hypotheses. Strong evidence consistent with the base-broadening hypothesis shows that 1% of monthly net inflows as a percentage of last month market capitalization is connected with 7% rise in monthly returns on the Macedonian stock market. The findings do not support the price pressure hypothesis, so the rise in the prices is permanent.
摘要新兴国家的经济依赖外国资本流入。对于政策制定者和研究人员来说,特别感兴趣的是了解这些流动的性质及其对国内资本市场的影响。2004年底,第一批大量外国资金流入马其顿股票市场,股票价格上涨。投资者普遍认为,外国人正在推动马其顿股市的价格。本研究使用基数扩大和价格压力假设考察了外国投资者的交易对马其顿股票回报的影响。与扩大基数假设一致的有力证据表明,马其顿股市每月净流入占上月市值的1%与月回报率上升7%有关。研究结果不支持价格压力假说,因此价格上涨是永久性的。
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引用次数: 2
Do Remittances reduce poverty in Kosovo? - A counterfactual analysis 汇款能减少科索沃的贫困吗?-反事实分析
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0018
Arbëresha Loxha
Abstract Migration and remittances are argued to be an effective mechanism for mitigating poverty, as well as a coping mechanism for disadvantaged households with no or little employment and earning opportunities in Kosovo. A considerable part is reported to be directed towards consumption and very little for investment or enterpreneurship purposes. The high dependence of households on remittances suggests that poverty rates would be much higher without the safety net provided through migration and remittances. The conventional approach of empirically estimating determinants of remittances, including those focusing on Kosovo, treats both remittance and migration behaviour as independent decisions. Empirically estimating determinants of remittances while overlooking the importance of variables that influenced the decision to migrate will leave out these determinants and also bias the results. Hence, this study treats migration and remittance decision as a joint process and focuses on the household. More precisely, it analyses the impact that remittances and migration have on the poverty in Kosovo, in a hypothetical case, without remittances and migration using data from the Household Budget Survey 2011. Due to the potential presence of selection bias, this study uses a two-stage Heckman-type selection procedure which suggests that there is no selection bias. The study develops counterfactual consumption estimates for remittance recipient households through the use of survey bootstrap procedure to predict the consumption of households in the case of no remittances. The results support the hypothesis that remittances increase the consumption of recipient households. The poverty rate would be higher for a considerable proportion of households in the case of no remittances. The poverty rates would increase particularly in rural areas. The novelty of this study lies on the methodological approach chosen to investigate the impact of remittances on poverty in Kosovo. In contrast to previous analysis, this study controls for potential selection bias and empirically assesses whether the expectations on the poverty reducing effect of remittances in Kosovo hold.
摘要移民和汇款被认为是减轻贫困的有效机制,也是科索沃没有或几乎没有就业和收入机会的弱势家庭的应对机制。据报告,相当一部分用于消费,很少用于投资或创业目的。家庭对汇款的高度依赖表明,如果没有通过移民和汇款提供的安全网,贫困率将高得多。根据经验估计汇款决定因素的传统方法,包括以科索沃为重点的方法,将汇款和移民行为视为独立的决定。凭经验估计汇款的决定因素,而忽略影响移民决定的变量的重要性,会忽略这些决定因素,也会使结果产生偏差。因此,本研究将移民和汇款决策视为一个联合过程,并以家庭为重点。更准确地说,它利用2011年家庭预算调查的数据,在没有汇款和移民的情况下,分析了汇款和移民对科索沃贫困的影响。由于可能存在选择偏差,本研究使用了两阶段的赫克曼型选择程序,表明不存在选择偏差。该研究通过使用调查引导程序预测无汇款情况下家庭的消费,为汇款接受家庭制定了反事实消费估计。研究结果支持汇款增加受援家庭消费的假设。在没有汇款的情况下,相当一部分家庭的贫困率会更高。贫困率将增加,特别是在农村地区。这项研究的新颖之处在于为调查汇款对科索沃贫困的影响而选择的方法。与之前的分析相比,本研究控制了潜在的选择偏差,并根据经验评估了对科索沃汇款减贫效果的预期是否成立。
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引用次数: 5
The Boone Indicator as Determinant of Croatian Insurance Market Soundness 布恩指标作为克罗地亚保险市场稳健性的决定因素
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0009
Tomislava Pavic Kramaric, M. Miletic
Abstract This paper deals with the influence of competition on soundness of Croatian insurers using the Boone indicator when measuring competition. The authors analyse Croatian insurers that operated over the pre-EU accession period 2008 – 2012 as well as in the period 2013 – 2017, i.e. after the accession to the EU. Several firm-level, industry-level and macroeconomic variables are used in the research. The findings of the analysis are twofold. Specifically, the Boone indicator reveals the impact of competition on the performance of efficient insurers in post-EU accession period only accounting for the reallocation effects proving that efficient insurers make higher profits. Regarding the determinants of the insurers’ soundness, premium to surplus ratio and inflation rate play significant role in pre - EU accession period whereas reinsurance and GDP growth rate are statistically significant after EU accession. Moreover, the competition increased in the years after the EU accession. Robustness check provides similar results.
摘要本文研究了竞争对克罗地亚保险公司稳健性的影响,在衡量竞争时使用Boone指标。作者分析了克罗地亚保险公司在加入欧盟前2008年至2012年以及2013年至2017年(即加入欧盟后)经营的情况。研究中使用了几个公司层面、行业层面和宏观经济变量。分析的结果是双重的。具体而言,Boone指标揭示了竞争对加入欧盟后高效保险公司业绩的影响,仅考虑了再分配效应,证明高效保险公司获得了更高的利润。在保险公司健全性的决定因素中,保费盈馀比和通货膨胀率在加入欧盟前的影响显著,而再保险和GDP增长率在加入欧盟后的影响显著。此外,在加入欧盟后的几年里,竞争加剧。鲁棒性检查提供了类似的结果。
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引用次数: 1
The Efficiency of Mandatory Pension Funds: Case of Croatia 强制性养老基金的效率:克罗地亚的案例
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0015
Bojana Olgić Draženović, S. Hodžić, D. Maradin
Abstract The aim of this paper is to examine performance of pension funds in Croatia, or more precisely, to measure the technical efficiency of mandatory pension funds. The main role of the pension funds is to collect and invest the money contributed by the employer or the employee during working years until retirement. Therefore, development of pension funds as institutional investors is especially important for capital markets as well as for the whole economy. By applying the methodology of data envelopment analysis on a sample of 12 DMUs, i.e. four mandatory pension funds divided into three categories (A, B or C) for 2015-2018 period, we provide further evidence on their efficiency level. The results have shown very small differences among relative inefficient pension funds.
摘要本文的目的是考察克罗地亚养老基金的绩效,或者更准确地说,衡量强制性养老基金的技术效率。养老基金的主要作用是收集和投资雇主或雇员在工作期间至退休期间缴纳的资金。因此,发展养老基金作为机构投资者,对资本市场和整个经济都尤为重要。通过对12个DMU样本(即2015-2018年期间分为三类(a、B或C)的四个强制性养老基金)应用数据包络分析方法,我们为其效率水平提供了进一步的证据。研究结果显示,相对低效的养老基金之间的差异非常小。
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引用次数: 11
Measuring the Efficiency of Polish Municipalities – Data Envelopment Analysis Approach 衡量波兰市政当局的效率——数据包络分析法
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0013
Tomasz Skica, Małgorzata Leśniowska-Gontarz, Katarzyna M. Miszczyńska
Abstract The aim of the paper is to build a ranking of municipalities due to their level of efficiency from the development point of view. According to the aim, it is possible to find out which indicators are crucial for the efficiency of municipalities in terms of sustainability. The research study involved DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) approach. Conducted research study covered 2044 Polish municipalities in the year 2016. The ranking of Polish municipalities was prepared with the use of the DEA model. The DEA method made it possible to set goals for inefficient municipalities, which should follow and regularly evaluate the progress in the implementation of their aims. Inefficient municipalities can improve their efficiency following the technological example of chosen benchmarks.
摘要本文的目的是从发展的角度,根据城市的效率水平建立一个城市排名。根据该目标,可以找出哪些指标对市政当局的可持续性效率至关重要。本研究采用DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis,数据包络分析)方法。2016年,对2044个波兰城市进行了研究。波兰城市的排名是使用DEA模型编制的。DEA方法使为效率低下的市镇制定目标成为可能,市镇应遵循并定期评估其目标的实施进展情况。效率低下的市政当局可以按照选定基准的技术示例来提高效率。
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引用次数: 3
Cost-Effective Service Excellence: Exploring the Relationships Among Restaurants’ Operational Efficiency, Size and Service Quality 具有成本效益的卓越服务:探索餐厅经营效率、规模与服务质量之间的关系
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0014
Marko Kukanja, T. Planinc
Abstract The main goal of this study is to investigate whether higher (cost-effective) operational efficiency in restaurants can be achieved without lowering the perceived level of service quality. This study also investigates the importance of restaurants’ size on operational efficiency and on the perceived level of service quality. We present the methodological procedures used to investigate the relationships among restaurants’ operational efficiency, size, and service quality after presenting the conceptualization of the cost-effective service excellence (CESE) research construct. The restaurants’ efficiency was assessed using Data Envelopment Analyses and the DINESERV tool was implemented to analyse guests’ perceptions of service quality. Guests of low- and high-efficient restaurants perceive service quality based on the same quality dimensions. Based on the structural equation modelling, it is evident that CESE can be achieved in the restaurant industry. The restaurant size has proven to influence restaurants’ operational efficiency and guests’ quality perceptions.
摘要本研究的主要目的是调查是否可以在不降低服务质量感知水平的情况下实现餐馆更高(成本效益高)的运营效率。本研究还调查了餐馆规模对运营效率和服务质量感知水平的重要性。在提出成本效益卓越服务(CESE)研究结构的概念后,我们提出了用于调查餐馆运营效率、规模和服务质量之间关系的方法论程序。使用数据包络分析评估餐厅的效率,并使用DINESERV工具分析客人对服务质量的看法。低效率餐厅和高效率餐厅的客人基于相同的质量维度感知服务质量。基于结构方程模型,很明显,CESE可以在餐饮业中实现。事实证明,餐厅的规模会影响餐厅的运营效率和客人对质量的看法。
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引用次数: 7
Productivity Change of Microfinance Institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina 波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那小额信贷机构的生产率变化
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0011
Velid Efendić, Nejra Hadžiahmetović
Abstract The main aim of this paper is to investigate the productivity changes of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) during and after the recent financial crisis. The study covers the period starting from 2008 until 2015. Using the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) over the sample of 10 MFIs and a balanced panel dataset of 80 observations, this study explores technical and technological change as well as total factor productivity (TFP) change. The empirical findings indicate a decline in TFP in most of the analyzed periods with an average decrease of 2.5%. The study reveals an average technological decline in the industry of 1.7%, while technical efficiency change is recorded at the level of -0.8%. Overall, crisis efficiency recovery occurred during the period between 2009 and 2013. However, due to technological inefficiencies, average total factor productivity change remains negative. Hence, policy makers need to enhance the technological progress in order to meet their strategic objectives in BiH MFIs.
摘要本文的主要目的是研究小额信贷机构(mfi)在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那(BiH)在最近的金融危机期间和之后的生产力变化。这项研究涵盖了从2008年到2015年的时间。本研究利用Malmquist生产力指数(MPI)对10家小型金融机构的样本和80个观察值的平衡面板数据集,探讨了技术和技术变革以及全要素生产率(TFP)变化。实证结果表明,在大多数分析时期,全要素生产率下降,平均下降2.5%。研究显示,该行业的平均技术降幅为1.7%,而技术效率的变化记录在-0.8%的水平上。总体而言,危机效率恢复发生在2009年至2013年期间。然而,由于技术效率低下,平均全要素生产率的变化仍然是负的。因此,决策者需要加强技术进步,以实现波黑小额信贷机构的战略目标。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous Convergence and International Technological Diffusion Channels 内生性趋同与国际技术扩散渠道
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0012
J. Tica, Luka Šikić
Abstract The goal of the paper is to estimate relative importance of channels of technological diffusion between new member states and core EU countries. Based on neoclassical growth theory and extensive literature survey on technological diffusion we explore movements in the relative TFP in EU member states and try to identify relative importance of channels of technological diffusion as suggested by theory: imports, exports, FDI, R&D, human capital and fixed capital formation, etc. In the first step we employ Phillips and Sul (2007) log t test which has power to detect convergence even in the absence of cointegration between time series. In the second part we employ Abrigo and Love (2016) PVAR model in order to detect channels of diffusion of technology. The data is sampled from Eurostat and PWT repository and covers the period from 1995-2016 for panel analysis and 1950-2014 for TFP convergence analysis. Our results indicate that in the overall sample FDI and R&D are major drivers of technological change, while, contrary to conventional wisdom, trade openness and human capital are dominant channels for TFP diffusion in periphery countries. The overall results point that productivity gap reduction is a heterogeneous process, country specific problem, but on average in the periphery it can be supported through various economic policies focused on openness and human capital.
摘要本文的目的是估计新成员国和欧盟核心国家之间技术扩散渠道的相对重要性。基于新古典增长理论和广泛的技术扩散文献调查,我们探讨了欧盟成员国相对全要素生产率的变化,并试图确定理论所建议的技术扩散渠道的相对重要性:进口、出口、外国直接投资、研发、人力资本和固定资本形成等。在第一步中,我们采用了Phillips和Sul(2007)的logt检验,即使在时间序列之间没有协整的情况下,该检验也能检测收敛性。在第二部分中,我们采用Abrigo和Love(2016)的PVAR模型来检测技术扩散的渠道。数据取自欧盟统计局和PWT存储库,涵盖1995-2016年期间的面板分析和1950-2014年期间的TFP收敛分析。我们的研究结果表明,在总体样本中,外国直接投资和研发是技术变革的主要驱动力,而与传统观点相反,贸易开放和人力资本是全要素生产率在周边国家扩散的主要渠道。总体结果表明,缩小生产力差距是一个异质性的过程,是一个针对具体国家的问题,但平均而言,在外围国家,可以通过以开放和人力资本为重点的各种经济政策来支持这一过程。
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引用次数: 3
Determinants of Migration Following the EU Enlargement: A Panel Data Analysis 欧盟扩大后移民的决定因素:面板数据分析
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0010
Sanja Franc, Anita Čeh Časni, Antea Barisic
Abstract The Eastern enlargements of the European Union (EU) since the early 2000s have included post-transitional economies at a lower level of development than the existing member states and thus, have significantly affected the East-West migration flows and labour markets on both sides. This has provided a distinctive opportunity to study the effects of liberalisation and to identify economic factors leading to migration flows with the purpose of enabling better estimations of future migration trends. In this research, a panel data analysis with pair of country fixed effects and time fixed effects is used to explore several pull and push factors of the East-West EU migration flows in the period from 2000 to 2017. Results indicate that emigration rate responds rather quickly to the changes in GDP per capita and unemployment rate of the youth population in immigration country, with statistically significant elasticity coefficients, suggesting that international migration contributes significantly to adjusting the labour supply to fluctuations in economic activity.
自21世纪初以来,欧盟东部的扩大将发展水平低于现有成员国的转型后经济体纳入其中,从而对东西方移民流动和双方的劳动力市场产生了重大影响。这为研究自由化的影响和查明导致移徙流动的经济因素提供了一个独特的机会,以便能够更好地估计未来的移徙趋势。本研究采用具有国家固定效应和时间固定效应的面板数据分析方法,探讨了2000 - 2017年欧盟东西移民流动的几个拉动因素和推动因素。结果表明,移民率对移民国人均国内生产总值和青年人口失业率的变化反应较快,弹性系数在统计上显著,表明国际移民对调整劳动力供给以适应经济活动波动有显著贡献。
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引用次数: 16
Attractiveness Modeling of Retail on Emotional Fatigue of Consumers 基于消费者情绪疲劳的零售业吸引力建模
IF 1 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2019-0017
G. Andrii, Yuliia Popova, Oksana Bodnaruk, Yuliia Zaika, E. Chuprina, Shapovalenko Denys, Kolonataievskyi Oleg
Abstract Demand for high-quality shopping service has seen continuous growth in the recent years, allowing retail chains to achieve sustainable competitive advantage, increase number of loyal customers. This in-turn results in demand boosting and image of the firm. To analyze and achieve this emotional reactions of customers while shopping becomes important. The paper attempts to evaluate the effect of emotional fatigue on purchase process and uses neuromarketing tool – Galvanic skin reaction analysis to do so. Changes in the buyer emotional reaction of consumers was observed through more than 150 experiments at 15 different retailers. The results showed that retailer selection depended on emotional fatigue of the customer. Different types of retailers create different emotional fatigue which affects the footfall.
摘要近年来,对高品质购物服务的需求持续增长,使零售连锁店获得可持续的竞争优势,增加了忠实客户的数量。这反过来又促进了需求的增长和公司的形象。分析并实现顾客在购物时的这种情绪反应变得很重要。本文试图评估情绪疲劳对购买过程的影响,并使用神经营销工具——电皮肤反应分析来进行评估。通过在15家不同零售商进行的150多项实验,观察了消费者买方情绪反应的变化。结果表明,零售商的选择取决于顾客的情绪疲劳。不同类型的零售商会产生不同的情绪疲劳,从而影响客流量。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
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