Central Bank Review最新文献

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Exogenous influences on long-term inflation expectation deviations: Evidence from Chile 外生因素对长期通胀预期偏差的影响：来自智利的证据

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100223

Carlos A. Medel

This article examines the determinants of the anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile, both within and beyond the two-year policy horizon. Despite the heightened sensitivity of expectations to actual inflation developments following the recent inflation surge, evidence from linear and non-linear time-series models, as well as binary-outcome analyses, suggests that confidence in the Central Bank’s official inflation forecasts can persist, even in the presence of exogenous influences such as global and domestic economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The findings indicate that, notwithstanding observed deviations from the inflation target, full confidence in the monetary policy stance can be maintained. Robustness checks confirm the baseline results when incorporating the full set of responses from the widely used inflation expectations survey. Nonetheless, financial market participants tend to anchor their expectations more firmly to the target, in contrast to experts and academics, who respond more strongly to new data. Members of the corporate sector appear to lie between these two groups in their expectations behaviour.

本文考察了智利通胀预期锚定的决定因素，包括两年政策范围内和两年政策范围之外的因素。尽管在最近的通胀飙升之后，人们对实际通胀发展的预期更加敏感，但线性和非线性时间序列模型以及二元结果分析的证据表明，即使存在诸如全球和国内经济政策不确定性以及地缘政治紧张局势等外部影响，人们对央行官方通胀预测的信心也会持续存在。调查结果表明，尽管观察到偏离通胀目标，但可以保持对货币政策立场的充分信心。当纳入广泛使用的通胀预期调查的全部回答时，稳健性检查确认了基线结果。尽管如此，金融市场参与者倾向于将自己的预期更牢固地固定在目标上，而专家和学者则对新数据的反应更为强烈。企业部门成员的预期行为似乎介于这两类人之间。

引用次数: 0

Monitoring pricing behaviour dynamics through the lens of business tendency surveys∗ 通过商业趋势调查监测定价行为动态*

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100226

Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan

Firms' pricing decisions play a pivotal role in shaping inflation dynamics through their collective price-setting behaviour. This study investigates firms’ pricing behaviour in the Turkish manufacturing sector using firm-level Business Tendency Survey data. Newly constructed monthly indicators capture the frequency and synchronization of price changes, providing insights into how price-setting dynamics evolve under high and volatile inflation. The results show that state-dependent pricing has become increasingly dominant in recent years, with firms responding more rapidly to cost and demand shocks while exhibiting reduced price rigidity. Sectoral evidence reveals marked heterogeneity across industries, reflecting differences in market structures and cost pressures. Moreover, firms display asymmetric behaviour, adjusting prices upward faster than downward, which contributes to inflation persistence. Overall, the findings highlight that the pricing behaviour of Turkish manufacturing firms is shaped by elevated inflation and economic shocks. These dynamics have important implications for monetary policy, underscoring the importance of expectation management and targeted interventions to support the ongoing disinflation process.

企业的定价决策通过其集体定价行为在塑造通胀动态方面发挥着关键作用。本研究利用企业层面的商业趋势调查数据调查了土耳其制造业企业的定价行为。新构建的月度指标反映了价格变化的频率和同步性，提供了在高且不稳定的通货膨胀下价格设定动态如何演变的见解。研究结果表明，近年来，依赖于国家的定价越来越占主导地位，企业对成本和需求冲击的反应更迅速，同时价格刚性降低。行业证据显示，不同行业之间存在明显的异质性，反映出市场结构和成本压力的差异。此外，企业表现出不对称行为，向上调整价格的速度比向下调整价格的速度快，这有助于通货膨胀的持续。总体而言，研究结果强调，土耳其制造企业的定价行为受到通货膨胀加剧和经济冲击的影响。这些动态对货币政策具有重要影响，强调了预期管理和有针对性干预的重要性，以支持正在进行的反通货膨胀进程。

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引用次数: 0

Emerging market riskiness and uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic 新兴市场风险和不确定性溢出效应：来自COVID-19大流行的证据

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100221

Burçin Kısacıkoğlu

This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty spillovers on emerging markets. We focus on COVID-19-related news as news about global uncertainty and estimate the dynamic response of high-frequency risk measures in emerging markets. Using heteroskedasticity-based estimation and aggregate emerging market indices, we show that heightened uncertainty increases government bond and CDS spreads and decreases stock prices. Using seven emerging markets, we show that country-level risk measures respond to uncertainty consistently with aggregate measures. We argue that the results are consistent with standard consumption-based asset pricing theory.

本文研究了不确定性溢出对新兴市场的影响。我们关注与covid -19相关的新闻，将其视为全球不确定性的新闻，并估计新兴市场高频风险措施的动态反应。利用基于异方差的估计和新兴市场总指数，我们发现不确定性的增加增加了政府债券和CDS的价差，并降低了股票价格。我们以七个新兴市场为例，表明国家层面的风险指标与总体指标对不确定性的反应一致。我们认为，结果与标准的基于消费的资产定价理论是一致的。

引用次数: 0

The role of financial literacy in shaping inflation beliefs: The case of Ukraine 金融知识在形成通胀信念中的作用：以乌克兰为例

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100225

Andriy Tsapin , Oleksandr Faryna

This paper investigates how households’ financial literacy influences their perceptions of past inflation and expectations of future price changes. Using novel survey data collected in Ukraine, we employ instrumental variable quantile regression models across various household subsamples to assess the asymmetric and heterogeneous effects of financial literacy on inflation-related beliefs. We find that the impact of financial literacy varies significantly across the distributions of inflation perceptions and expectations, shaped by distinct components – knowledge, behavior, and attitude – as well as by household characteristics such as size, income level, and place of residence. We also find that trust in the banking system enhances the accuracy of inflation beliefs, with a stronger effect as perceptions and expectations deviate from benchmarks. These findings have important implications for central banks seeking to anchor inflation expectations.

本文研究了家庭的金融知识如何影响他们对过去通货膨胀的看法和对未来价格变化的预期。利用在乌克兰收集的新调查数据，我们采用工具变量分位数回归模型跨各种家庭亚样本来评估金融素养对通货膨胀相关信念的不对称和异质性影响。我们发现，金融知识的影响在通货膨胀感知和预期的分布中存在显著差异，这是由不同的组成部分（知识、行为和态度）以及家庭特征（如规模、收入水平和居住地）决定的。我们还发现，对银行体系的信任提高了通胀信念的准确性，当感知和预期偏离基准时，效果更强。这些发现对寻求稳定通胀预期的央行具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Communication, information and inflation expectations 沟通，信息和通胀预期

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100224

Fernando Borraz , Miguel Mello

This paper examines how the formation of inflation expectations and the magnitude of prediction errors vary among price setters based on the central bank’s communication and their level of information. We utilize dynamic panel data models to determine the importance of firms’ information about the prevailing inflation rate and the official inflation target. Our analysis reveals that the communicated tone of monetary policy amplifies the existing bias of the monetary policy instrument when these two are consistent. However, the credibility of the central bank’s communication diminishes when the stated tone and the implemented policy instruments diverge. By analyzing the interplay between information about inflation and the tone of the central bank’s monetary policy statements, we conclude that agents with partial information form their expectations distinctly. Notably, for these partially informed agents, the credibility of communication is not necessarily undermined by a mismatch between the stated tone and policy instruments. Furthermore, agents with complete information exhibit lower prediction errors.

本文考察了基于央行沟通和信息水平的价格制定者之间通胀预期的形成和预测误差的大小是如何变化的。我们利用动态面板数据模型来确定企业对现行通胀率和官方通胀目标信息的重要性。我们的分析表明，当这两者一致时，货币政策的沟通基调放大了货币政策工具的现有偏见。然而，当声明的基调和实施的政策工具出现分歧时，央行沟通的可信度就会下降。通过分析通货膨胀信息与央行货币政策声明基调之间的相互作用，我们得出结论：部分信息的主体明显形成了他们的预期。值得注意的是，对于这些部分知情的代理人来说，沟通的可信度不一定会因所陈述的语气与政策工具之间的不匹配而受到损害。此外，具有完整信息的智能体表现出更低的预测误差。

引用次数: 0

Central bank communication: A quantitative assessment 央行沟通：定量评估

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100212

Ekkehard Ernst , Rossana Merola , Allan Gregory Ward Auclair

In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators of Central Bank's communication to estimate speech intensity in five different macroeconomic fields: monetary conditions, financial stability, external competitiveness, labour and social conditions and economic activity. In addition, we also built an index of Central Banks' communication about the state of the economy and related concepts like uncertainty and risk. To do this, we develop an automated text-mining routine using the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) collection of speeches given by Central Bank senior executives. We use this set of indicators to compare goals and strategies across several Central Banks (the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia) from the late 1990s up to 2023. We then assess whether communication intensity is mirrored in Central Banks' policy decisions. Our empirical results suggest that communication is usually a complement for monetary policy and that its intensity rises as monetary policy becomes more persistent. The late 2010s were an exception. With a near-binding ZLB, communications and policy actions diverged to some extent.

在本文中，我们提出了一套新的中央银行沟通指标，以估计五个不同宏观经济领域的言论强度：货币状况、金融稳定、外部竞争力、劳动力和社会状况以及经济活动。此外，我们还建立了中央银行关于经济状况以及不确定性和风险等相关概念的沟通指数。为此，我们使用国际清算银行（BIS）中央银行高级管理人员的演讲集开发了一个自动文本挖掘例程。我们使用这组指标来比较几家中央银行（美联储、欧洲中央银行、英格兰银行和澳大利亚储备银行）从20世纪90年代末到2023年的目标和策略。然后，我们评估沟通强度是否反映在央行的政策决定中。我们的实证结果表明，沟通通常是货币政策的补充，其强度随着货币政策变得更加持久而上升。2010年代末是个例外。在接近约束性的ZLB下，沟通和政策行动在一定程度上出现了分歧。

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引用次数: 0

Deposit interest rate pass-through in Central and Eastern European countries before and after 2021 2021年前后中东欧国家存款利率传递

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100204

Gábor Hajnal, Bálint Dancsik, Zsuzsanna Hosszú, Ákos Attila Ozoróczy

The study analyzes interest rate pass-through for household and corporate deposits in specific markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, with a focus on the tightening cycle that began in mid-2021. This period is of particular interest to monetary policy, as sharp rate hikes by central banks, in response to a high inflationary environment, followed a period characterized by an abundance of liquidity. We examine the relationship between interbank and deposit interest rates using two methods: wavelet transform and error-correction model. Based on the wavelet analysis, we found a weakening of pass-through and a slowdown in the repricing of deposit interest rates during the tightening cycle across the countries of the CEE region, particularly in the household segment. Using error-correction models, we observe a consistent weakening in both the degree and speed of interest rate pass-through in the Hungarian and Polish deposit markets during the tightening cycle. The extent of pass-through declined most in the Hungarian household deposit market among all CEE countries.

该研究分析了中欧和东欧（CEE）地区特定市场家庭和企业存款的利率传导，重点关注始于2021年年中的紧缩周期。这一时期是货币政策特别关注的时期，因为中央银行为应对高通胀环境而大幅加息，随后是一个以流动性充裕为特征的时期。本文采用小波变换和误差修正模型两种方法对银行同业利率和存款利率之间的关系进行了检验。基于小波分析，我们发现在中东欧地区各国的紧缩周期中，传导减弱，存款利率重新定价放缓，特别是在家庭部门。使用误差修正模型，我们观察到在紧缩周期中，匈牙利和波兰存款市场利率传递的程度和速度都持续减弱。在所有中东欧国家中，匈牙利家庭存款市场的转嫁程度下降得最多。

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引用次数: 0

Total factor productivity and spillover effects: Frontier and Laggard firms dynamics 全要素生产率和溢出效应：前沿和落后企业动态

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100211

Okan Akarsu

In this paper, I explore the spillover effects of frontier firms on other firms in Türkiye, using a detailed administrative dataset with firm-level data on balance sheets, inter-firm transactions, and employment. I review key production function estimators, evaluate their assumptions and performance using a large dataset of Turkish firms, and use productivity estimates to identify frontier firms and assess their influence on laggard firms' performance. Additionally, I contribute to the empirical literature by exploring the spillover and network effects of frontier firms on laggard firms, as well as examining the productivity convergence of laggard firms to frontier firms. The analysis reveals three key findings: (i) Frontier firms generate positive spillover effects within sectors, which enhance sales, employment, exports, and asset growth among laggard firms; (ii) detailed firm-to-firm invoice data reveals that a higher share of frontier firms in a firm's network significantly boosts investment, net sales, and productivity growth; and (iii) laggard firms show faster productivity growth, with substantial variation across firm types and industries.

在本文中，我使用了一个详细的管理数据集，其中包括企业层面的资产负债表、企业间交易和就业数据，探讨了前沿企业对中国其他企业的溢出效应。我回顾了关键的生产函数估计器，使用土耳其公司的大型数据集评估其假设和绩效，并使用生产率估计来识别前沿公司并评估其对落后公司绩效的影响。此外，我通过探索前沿企业对落后企业的溢出效应和网络效应，以及研究落后企业对前沿企业的生产率趋同，为实证文献做出了贡献。分析揭示了三个主要发现：(1)前沿企业在行业内产生积极的溢出效应，从而提高了落后企业的销售、就业、出口和资产增长；（ii）详细的企业间发票数据显示，企业网络中前沿企业的比例越高，投资、净销售额和生产率增长就越显著；(3)落后企业的生产率增长更快，不同企业类型和行业之间存在很大差异。

引用次数: 0

Does it pay to invest in environmental sustainability? Green innovation and costs of production 投资于环境可持续性是否值得？绿色创新与生产成本

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100202

Umar Farooq , Mosab I. Tabash , Ebrahim Mohammed Al-Matari , Adeeb Alhebri , Khurshid Khudoykulov , Lara Al-haddad

Green investment is a solution for addressing environmental issues. Besides mitigating pollution, can such investment lead to other financial benefits? In response to this research question, the objective of the current analysis is to reveal the impact of going green on the cost of production (COP) for enterprises. To achieve this aim, we conduct an empirical analysis using 10 years of data (2010–2019) from non-financial sector enterprises in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economies. Due to the existence of endogeneity issues, we select the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model as our estimation technique. The empirical results reveal that investment in green technologies has a non-linear negative and statistically significant relationship with COP. Initially, focusing on green investment increases the COP due to technology replacement and learning costs. However, after a certain level, such investment reduces the COP, implying an inverted U-shaped relationship between green investment and the cost of production. The conclusion of the study suggests that corporate managers should consistently invest in green technologies and adopt it as a long-term strategy. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the real-time role of green investment in reducing the COP.

绿色投资是解决环境问题的一种方法。除了减轻污染，这种投资还能带来其他经济效益吗？针对这一研究问题，本文分析的目的是揭示绿色环保对企业生产成本的影响。为了实现这一目标，我们使用金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）经济体非金融部门企业的10年（2010-2019年）数据进行了实证分析。由于存在内生性问题，我们选择系统广义矩量法（GMM）模型作为估计技术。实证结果表明，绿色技术投资与COP呈非线性负相关，且具有显著的统计学意义。最初，由于技术替代和学习成本，关注绿色投资增加了COP。但是，在一定水平之后，绿色投资降低了COP，这意味着绿色投资与生产成本之间存在倒u型关系。该研究的结论表明，企业管理者应该持续投资于绿色技术，并将其作为一项长期战略。本研究通过展示绿色投资对降低COP的实时作用，为文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Does difference in monetary policy framework matter for interest rate Pass-through? Evidence from TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility 货币政策框架的差异对利率传递有影响吗？随机波动的TVP-VAR证据

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100201

Usman Adamu Bello , Auwal Isah

The relative success of Inflation Targeting (IT) amidst widespread rising inflation globally is motivating the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to renew its desire for an IT framework. This paper applies the Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression with the Stochastic Volatility model (TVP-SVAR-SVM) to examine the potential benefits and provide hindsight for the CBN within the interest rate channel. The paper draws parallels between the CBN's Monetary Targeting (MT) and South Africa's Reserve Bank (SARB) IT. The result of the SVM uncovers a disparity regarding inflation uncertainty associated with interest rate pass-through. At the same time, two distinct parallels were unveiled regarding the impulse response function (IRF) result. Although CBN was found to have experienced decelerating inflation uncertainty, the SARB's IT shows no potential benefit. Meanwhile, compelling distinctiveness from the results of the IRF is: first, relative consistency in short-term inflation forecast and the future expected inflation (8-period and 12-period) found in the SARB's IT. This was accompanied by an observed absence of distortions over the declining trajectory of inflation, which allows it to build monetary policy credibility over time, while the strong indication of achieving rapid long-run disinflation over time was also detected. Thus, confirming the relatively greater degree of expectation anchoring. In contrast, the CBN's MT showed manifestation of distortions over time, with difficulties in suppressing impending inflationary pressure, whereas the expected inflation forecast deviated from its short-term (4-period) inflation forecast. Secondly, evidence of speed in the SARB's IT during the initial impact of interest rate pass-through was twice as fast as the CBN's MT. Consequently, the total impact of the pass-through to inflation under MT was also found to be delayed by 8 periods relative to the IT. This paper concludes that the characterized evidence uncovered constitutes a relatively effective SARB's IT, and a key benefit resides in the comparatively faster interest rate pass-through in the IT. This could potentially restrain the rapidness with which nominal adjustable inflation-indexed wages under short contracts have on inflation.

在全球通货膨胀普遍上升的背景下，通货膨胀目标制（IT）的相对成功促使尼日利亚中央银行（CBN）重申其对IT框架的渴望。本文应用时变参数结构向量自回归与随机波动模型（TVP-SVAR-SVM）来检查潜在的好处，并为利率通道内的CBN提供后见之明。本文将CBN的货币目标（MT）与南非储备银行（SARB） IT进行了比较。支持向量机的结果揭示了与利率传递相关的通货膨胀不确定性的差异。同时，在脉冲响应函数（IRF）的结果上，揭示了两个明显的相似之处。尽管发现CBN经历了通货膨胀减速的不确定性，但SARB的IT没有显示出潜在的好处。与此同时，IRF结果的引人注目的独特性是：首先，在SARB的IT中发现的短期通胀预测和未来预期通胀（8期和12期）的相对一致性。与此同时，人们还观察到通货膨胀下降轨迹没有出现扭曲，这使得它能够随着时间的推移建立货币政策的可信度，同时也发现了随着时间的推移实现长期快速反通货膨胀的强烈迹象。从而证实了相对较大程度的期望锚定。相比之下，CBN的MT表现出随时间的扭曲，难以抑制即将到来的通胀压力，而预期通胀预测偏离其短期（4期）通胀预测。其次，在利率传递的初始影响期间，SARB的IT速度是CBN MT的两倍。因此，在MT下传递对通货膨胀的总影响也被发现相对于IT延迟了8个时期。本文的结论是，所发现的特征证据构成了一个相对有效的储蓄银行的IT，关键的好处在于相对较快的利率传递在IT中。这可能会抑制短期合同下的名义可调整通胀指数工资对通胀的快速影响。

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