Central Bank Review最新文献_第2页

Central bank communication: A quantitative assessment 央行沟通：定量评估

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100212

Ekkehard Ernst , Rossana Merola , Allan Gregory Ward Auclair

In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators of Central Bank's communication to estimate speech intensity in five different macroeconomic fields: monetary conditions, financial stability, external competitiveness, labour and social conditions and economic activity. In addition, we also built an index of Central Banks' communication about the state of the economy and related concepts like uncertainty and risk. To do this, we develop an automated text-mining routine using the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) collection of speeches given by Central Bank senior executives. We use this set of indicators to compare goals and strategies across several Central Banks (the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia) from the late 1990s up to 2023. We then assess whether communication intensity is mirrored in Central Banks' policy decisions. Our empirical results suggest that communication is usually a complement for monetary policy and that its intensity rises as monetary policy becomes more persistent. The late 2010s were an exception. With a near-binding ZLB, communications and policy actions diverged to some extent.

在本文中，我们提出了一套新的中央银行沟通指标，以估计五个不同宏观经济领域的言论强度：货币状况、金融稳定、外部竞争力、劳动力和社会状况以及经济活动。此外，我们还建立了中央银行关于经济状况以及不确定性和风险等相关概念的沟通指数。为此，我们使用国际清算银行（BIS）中央银行高级管理人员的演讲集开发了一个自动文本挖掘例程。我们使用这组指标来比较几家中央银行（美联储、欧洲中央银行、英格兰银行和澳大利亚储备银行）从20世纪90年代末到2023年的目标和策略。然后，我们评估沟通强度是否反映在央行的政策决定中。我们的实证结果表明，沟通通常是货币政策的补充，其强度随着货币政策变得更加持久而上升。2010年代末是个例外。在接近约束性的ZLB下，沟通和政策行动在一定程度上出现了分歧。

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引用次数: 0

Total factor productivity and spillover effects: Frontier and Laggard firms dynamics 全要素生产率和溢出效应：前沿和落后企业动态

IF 1.2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100211

Okan Akarsu

In this paper, I explore the spillover effects of frontier firms on other firms in Türkiye, using a detailed administrative dataset with firm-level data on balance sheets, inter-firm transactions, and employment. I review key production function estimators, evaluate their assumptions and performance using a large dataset of Turkish firms, and use productivity estimates to identify frontier firms and assess their influence on laggard firms' performance. Additionally, I contribute to the empirical literature by exploring the spillover and network effects of frontier firms on laggard firms, as well as examining the productivity convergence of laggard firms to frontier firms. The analysis reveals three key findings: (i) Frontier firms generate positive spillover effects within sectors, which enhance sales, employment, exports, and asset growth among laggard firms; (ii) detailed firm-to-firm invoice data reveals that a higher share of frontier firms in a firm's network significantly boosts investment, net sales, and productivity growth; and (iii) laggard firms show faster productivity growth, with substantial variation across firm types and industries.

在本文中，我使用了一个详细的管理数据集，其中包括企业层面的资产负债表、企业间交易和就业数据，探讨了前沿企业对中国其他企业的溢出效应。我回顾了关键的生产函数估计器，使用土耳其公司的大型数据集评估其假设和绩效，并使用生产率估计来识别前沿公司并评估其对落后公司绩效的影响。此外，我通过探索前沿企业对落后企业的溢出效应和网络效应，以及研究落后企业对前沿企业的生产率趋同，为实证文献做出了贡献。分析揭示了三个主要发现：(1)前沿企业在行业内产生积极的溢出效应，从而提高了落后企业的销售、就业、出口和资产增长；（ii）详细的企业间发票数据显示，企业网络中前沿企业的比例越高，投资、净销售额和生产率增长就越显著；(3)落后企业的生产率增长更快，不同企业类型和行业之间存在很大差异。

引用次数: 0

Deposit interest rate pass-through in Central and Eastern European countries before and after 2021 2021年前后中东欧国家存款利率传递

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100204

Gábor Hajnal, Bálint Dancsik, Zsuzsanna Hosszú, Ákos Attila Ozoróczy

The study analyzes interest rate pass-through for household and corporate deposits in specific markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, with a focus on the tightening cycle that began in mid-2021. This period is of particular interest to monetary policy, as sharp rate hikes by central banks, in response to a high inflationary environment, followed a period characterized by an abundance of liquidity. We examine the relationship between interbank and deposit interest rates using two methods: wavelet transform and error-correction model. Based on the wavelet analysis, we found a weakening of pass-through and a slowdown in the repricing of deposit interest rates during the tightening cycle across the countries of the CEE region, particularly in the household segment. Using error-correction models, we observe a consistent weakening in both the degree and speed of interest rate pass-through in the Hungarian and Polish deposit markets during the tightening cycle. The extent of pass-through declined most in the Hungarian household deposit market among all CEE countries.

该研究分析了中欧和东欧（CEE）地区特定市场家庭和企业存款的利率传导，重点关注始于2021年年中的紧缩周期。这一时期是货币政策特别关注的时期，因为中央银行为应对高通胀环境而大幅加息，随后是一个以流动性充裕为特征的时期。本文采用小波变换和误差修正模型两种方法对银行同业利率和存款利率之间的关系进行了检验。基于小波分析，我们发现在中东欧地区各国的紧缩周期中，传导减弱，存款利率重新定价放缓，特别是在家庭部门。使用误差修正模型，我们观察到在紧缩周期中，匈牙利和波兰存款市场利率传递的程度和速度都持续减弱。在所有中东欧国家中，匈牙利家庭存款市场的转嫁程度下降得最多。

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引用次数: 0

Does it pay to invest in environmental sustainability? Green innovation and costs of production 投资于环境可持续性是否值得？绿色创新与生产成本

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100202

Umar Farooq , Mosab I. Tabash , Ebrahim Mohammed Al-Matari , Adeeb Alhebri , Khurshid Khudoykulov , Lara Al-haddad

Green investment is a solution for addressing environmental issues. Besides mitigating pollution, can such investment lead to other financial benefits? In response to this research question, the objective of the current analysis is to reveal the impact of going green on the cost of production (COP) for enterprises. To achieve this aim, we conduct an empirical analysis using 10 years of data (2010–2019) from non-financial sector enterprises in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economies. Due to the existence of endogeneity issues, we select the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model as our estimation technique. The empirical results reveal that investment in green technologies has a non-linear negative and statistically significant relationship with COP. Initially, focusing on green investment increases the COP due to technology replacement and learning costs. However, after a certain level, such investment reduces the COP, implying an inverted U-shaped relationship between green investment and the cost of production. The conclusion of the study suggests that corporate managers should consistently invest in green technologies and adopt it as a long-term strategy. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the real-time role of green investment in reducing the COP.

绿色投资是解决环境问题的一种方法。除了减轻污染，这种投资还能带来其他经济效益吗？针对这一研究问题，本文分析的目的是揭示绿色环保对企业生产成本的影响。为了实现这一目标，我们使用金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）经济体非金融部门企业的10年（2010-2019年）数据进行了实证分析。由于存在内生性问题，我们选择系统广义矩量法（GMM）模型作为估计技术。实证结果表明，绿色技术投资与COP呈非线性负相关，且具有显著的统计学意义。最初，由于技术替代和学习成本，关注绿色投资增加了COP。但是，在一定水平之后，绿色投资降低了COP，这意味着绿色投资与生产成本之间存在倒u型关系。该研究的结论表明，企业管理者应该持续投资于绿色技术，并将其作为一项长期战略。本研究通过展示绿色投资对降低COP的实时作用，为文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

The oversight on the relationship between monetary policy setting and exchange rate through yield curve modeling 通过收益率曲线模型对货币政策制定与汇率关系的监督

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100198

Yavuz Yumrukuz , Furkan Türkoğlu, Eda Göçecek

This study explores the dynamic relationship between the parameters of the yield curve, macrofinancial variables, and the USD/TRY exchange rate in Türkiye, with a particular focus on the period following the steep 2018 currency depreciation. Using the Nelson–Siegel model, we examine the influence of the factors of the yield curve, the level, the slope and the curvature, together with the FX deposits and the Türkiye CDS rate, which serve as proxyes for currency substitution and credit (sovereign) risk, respectively. The initial results of the dynamic linear regression demonstrate that the yield curve parameters provide limited explanatory power, particularly in the context of the volatile macroeconomic environment in Türkiye. However, incorporating FX deposits and CDS rates significantly improves the performance of the model, allowing the capture of key drivers of exchange rate volatility.

Additionally, quantile regression is applied to uncover the non-linear and heterogeneous effects of these variables across different segments of the exchange rate distribution. The results show that the impact of yield curve parameters, currency substitution, and systemic credit risk intensifies during periods of market stress, underscoring the importance of taking into account varying market conditions in exchange rate analysis. The findings highlight the need for comprehensive and adaptive models that integrate both short-term financial pressures and long-term structural factors to better understand and manage exchange rate dynamics in emerging markets such as Türkiye.

本研究探讨了日本收益率曲线参数、宏观金融变量和美元/土耳其里拉汇率之间的动态关系，并特别关注了2018年货币大幅贬值后的时期。利用Nelson-Siegel模型，我们考察了收益率曲线、水平、斜率和曲率等因素，以及外汇存款和 rkiye CDS利率的影响，它们分别作为货币替代和信用（主权）风险的代理。动态线性回归的初步结果表明，收益率曲线参数提供有限的解释力，特别是在泰国动荡的宏观经济环境下。然而，结合外汇存款和CDS利率显著提高了模型的性能，允许捕捉汇率波动的关键驱动因素。此外，分位数回归用于揭示这些变量在汇率分布的不同部分的非线性和异质效应。结果表明，在市场压力时期，收益率曲线参数、货币替代和系统性信用风险的影响会加剧，这强调了在汇率分析中考虑不同市场条件的重要性。研究结果强调，需要建立综合短期金融压力和长期结构性因素的综合适应性模型，以更好地理解和管理 rkiye等新兴市场的汇率动态。

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引用次数: 0

Does difference in monetary policy framework matter for interest rate Pass-through? Evidence from TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility 货币政策框架的差异对利率传递有影响吗？随机波动的TVP-VAR证据

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100201

Usman Adamu Bello , Auwal Isah

The relative success of Inflation Targeting (IT) amidst widespread rising inflation globally is motivating the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to renew its desire for an IT framework. This paper applies the Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression with the Stochastic Volatility model (TVP-SVAR-SVM) to examine the potential benefits and provide hindsight for the CBN within the interest rate channel. The paper draws parallels between the CBN's Monetary Targeting (MT) and South Africa's Reserve Bank (SARB) IT. The result of the SVM uncovers a disparity regarding inflation uncertainty associated with interest rate pass-through. At the same time, two distinct parallels were unveiled regarding the impulse response function (IRF) result. Although CBN was found to have experienced decelerating inflation uncertainty, the SARB's IT shows no potential benefit. Meanwhile, compelling distinctiveness from the results of the IRF is: first, relative consistency in short-term inflation forecast and the future expected inflation (8-period and 12-period) found in the SARB's IT. This was accompanied by an observed absence of distortions over the declining trajectory of inflation, which allows it to build monetary policy credibility over time, while the strong indication of achieving rapid long-run disinflation over time was also detected. Thus, confirming the relatively greater degree of expectation anchoring. In contrast, the CBN's MT showed manifestation of distortions over time, with difficulties in suppressing impending inflationary pressure, whereas the expected inflation forecast deviated from its short-term (4-period) inflation forecast. Secondly, evidence of speed in the SARB's IT during the initial impact of interest rate pass-through was twice as fast as the CBN's MT. Consequently, the total impact of the pass-through to inflation under MT was also found to be delayed by 8 periods relative to the IT. This paper concludes that the characterized evidence uncovered constitutes a relatively effective SARB's IT, and a key benefit resides in the comparatively faster interest rate pass-through in the IT. This could potentially restrain the rapidness with which nominal adjustable inflation-indexed wages under short contracts have on inflation.

在全球通货膨胀普遍上升的背景下，通货膨胀目标制（IT）的相对成功促使尼日利亚中央银行（CBN）重申其对IT框架的渴望。本文应用时变参数结构向量自回归与随机波动模型（TVP-SVAR-SVM）来检查潜在的好处，并为利率通道内的CBN提供后见之明。本文将CBN的货币目标（MT）与南非储备银行（SARB） IT进行了比较。支持向量机的结果揭示了与利率传递相关的通货膨胀不确定性的差异。同时，在脉冲响应函数（IRF）的结果上，揭示了两个明显的相似之处。尽管发现CBN经历了通货膨胀减速的不确定性，但SARB的IT没有显示出潜在的好处。与此同时，IRF结果的引人注目的独特性是：首先，在SARB的IT中发现的短期通胀预测和未来预期通胀（8期和12期）的相对一致性。与此同时，人们还观察到通货膨胀下降轨迹没有出现扭曲，这使得它能够随着时间的推移建立货币政策的可信度，同时也发现了随着时间的推移实现长期快速反通货膨胀的强烈迹象。从而证实了相对较大程度的期望锚定。相比之下，CBN的MT表现出随时间的扭曲，难以抑制即将到来的通胀压力，而预期通胀预测偏离其短期（4期）通胀预测。其次，在利率传递的初始影响期间，SARB的IT速度是CBN MT的两倍。因此，在MT下传递对通货膨胀的总影响也被发现相对于IT延迟了8个时期。本文的结论是，所发现的特征证据构成了一个相对有效的储蓄银行的IT，关键的好处在于相对较快的利率传递在IT中。这可能会抑制短期合同下的名义可调整通胀指数工资对通胀的快速影响。

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引用次数: 0

The role of earnings management and audit fees in non-financial companies during crises 危机期间非金融公司盈余管理和审计费用的作用

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100200

Maria I. Kyriakou

This study examines the mean difference and the indirect relationship between earnings management (measured by discretionary accruals) and audit fees. It spans the period from 2005 to 2020 for four countries in two pairs, namely Italy and Spain, and Germany and France. The investigation considers three of the most recent crises (the financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic). The ANOVA method is used and its validity is compared with the Kruskal–Wallis non-parametric test along with interval plots. The latter plots are graphs that show the mean distance for the two estimated variables, which has been calculated using pooled standard deviation. The results indicate that earnings manipulation measured using discretionary accruals has increased more in Germany than in France and is similar in Italy and Spain. Audit fees have risen more in Germany than in France and have increased more in Italy than in Spain during the three most recent crises. Thus, these results indirectly confirm the positive association between earnings manipulation and audit fees.

本研究探讨盈余管理（由可支配应计项目衡量）与审计费用之间的平均差异和间接关系。它涵盖了从2005年到2020年的四个国家，分为两组，分别是意大利和西班牙，德国和法国。该调查考虑了最近的三次危机（金融危机、主权债务危机和COVID-19大流行）。采用方差分析方法，并与Kruskal-Wallis非参数检验及区间图进行了有效性比较。后面的图表显示了两个估计变量的平均距离，这是用混合标准差计算出来的。结果表明，使用可自由支配应计利润衡量的盈余操纵在德国比法国增加得更多，在意大利和西班牙也类似。在最近的三次危机中，德国的审计费用涨幅高于法国，意大利的审计费用涨幅高于西班牙。因此，这些结果间接证实了盈余操纵与审计费用之间的正相关关系。

引用次数: 0

Revisiting inflation inertia: A comprehensive analysis of dynamics and connectedness in the Turkish case 重新审视通货膨胀惯性：土耳其案例的动态和连通性的综合分析

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100199

Burçhan Sakarya , Onur Polat , Hasan Murat Ertuğrul

This paper examines the phenomenon of inflation inertia in Türkiye focusing on its persistence and the role of interconnected price-setting behaviors. Utilizing monthly data from 2004 to 2024, the study applies a novel augmented Phillips Curve framework, integrating a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) approach with a connectedness measure derived from the Antonakakis et al. (2020) methodology. Our aim is to investigate the interplay between consumer price inflation and sub-level pricing dynamics to understand how interconnectedness amplifies inflation persistence. This study uniquely contributes to the literature by analyzing inflation inertia alongside the influence of commodity price interconnectedness, offering a dual perspective on inflation dynamics. The findings reveal a marked increase in inflation inertia in Türkiye since 2018, driven by stronger inflation expectations and intensified price interconnectedness, particularly after 2022. The results underscore the compounded impact of synchronized pricing adjustments and sectoral linkages in perpetuating inflation persistence, which hinders the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy. Robustness checks by employing Markov Switching Regression (MSR) models, the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression and causality results confirm these dynamics. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for a coordinated approach, integrating monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and income policies to reduce system-wide price interconnectedness. Central banks must adopt a clear and credible policy horizon to break inflationary expectations and mitigate inertia. By addressing these systemic challenges, policymakers can enhance the efficacy of inflation-targeting frameworks, supporting sustainable price stability in the face of entrenched inflation dynamics.

本文考察了日本通货膨胀惯性现象，重点关注其持久性和相互关联的价格设定行为的作用。利用2004年至2024年的月度数据，该研究采用了一种新的增强菲利普斯曲线框架，将时变参数（TVP）方法与源自Antonakakis et al.（2020）方法的连通性测量相结合。我们的目的是研究消费者价格通胀和次级价格动态之间的相互作用，以了解相互联系如何放大通货膨胀的持久性。本研究通过分析通货膨胀惯性以及商品价格相互关联性的影响，为通货膨胀动态提供了双重视角，从而为文献做出了独特的贡献。调查结果显示，自2018年以来，由于通胀预期增强和价格相互关联加剧，特别是在2022年之后，日本的通胀惯性显著增加。这些结果强调了同步定价调整和部门联系在使通货膨胀持续存在方面的复合影响，这妨碍了传统货币政策的有效性。采用马尔可夫切换回归（MSR）模型、分位数对分位数（QQ）回归和因果关系结果进行鲁棒性检验，证实了这些动态。政策建议强调需要采取协调一致的方法，整合货币、财政、汇率和收入政策，以减少整个系统的价格相互关联性。各国央行必须采取清晰可信的政策视野，打破通胀预期，缓解惯性。通过解决这些系统性挑战，政策制定者可以提高通胀目标框架的有效性，在面对根深蒂固的通胀动态时支持可持续的价格稳定。

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引用次数: 0

The nonlinear nexuses between monetary policy, household indebtedness, and household consumption: Evidence from Korea 货币政策、家庭负债和家庭消费之间的非线性联系：来自韩国的证据

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100190

Jounghyeon Kim

Household indebtedness in Korea has surged persistently during 2003-2022. Low interest rates, coupled with escalating housing prices, are the key drivers of growing household debt. In this context, monetary tightening may play an opposite role to conventional monetary policy. Moreover, inordinate indebtedness likely acts as a deterrent to household consumption. Using threshold regression, this study explores the nonlinear nexus between monetary policy and household debt, as well as the nexus between household consumption and debt in Korea. The results reveal that an increase in the monetary policy rate boosts household debt in a regime with values beyond the threshold of the nominal (real) housing sales price index approximately 61.3 and 63.9 (80.7) for regressions on the regime-specific nominal and real policy rates, respectively. This implies that monetary tightening can enhance household debt due to high housing price expectations. Furthermore, an increase in household indebtedness suppresses household consumption when the household debt-to-annual GDP ratio is above the thresholds of approximately 84% and 82% for regressions on household debt growth and household debt-to-GDP ratio growth, respectively. These findings suggest that, under low interest rates, in the face of high housing prices and “excessive” household indebtedness, monetary tightening and debt expansion are unviable courses of action for resolving growing household indebtedness and declining household consumption. Therefore, when regulating the policy rate to control household debt and spending effectively, it is crucial to maintain housing prices and household indebtedness at desirable levels. In tandem with this, additional policy instruments such as macroprudential and housing-related fiscal regulations may also be needed to attain financial stability.

2003年至2022年，韩国家庭负债持续增加。低利率加上不断上涨的房价，是家庭债务不断增长的主要驱动因素。在这种背景下，货币紧缩可能会发挥与传统货币政策相反的作用。此外，过度负债可能会阻碍家庭消费。运用阈值回归，本研究探讨了韩国货币政策与家庭债务之间的非线性关系，以及家庭消费与债务之间的关系。结果表明，货币政策利率的增加增加了一个制度的家庭债务，其价值超过了名义（实际）住房销售价格指数的阈值，分别为特定制度的名义和实际政策利率的回归约61.3和63.9（80.7）。这意味着，由于高房价预期，货币紧缩可能会增加家庭债务。此外，当家庭债务与年GDP之比分别高于家庭债务增长和家庭债务与GDP之比增长回归的大约84%和82%的阈值时，家庭债务的增加会抑制家庭消费。这些发现表明，在低利率下，面对高房价和“过度”家庭负债，货币紧缩和债务扩张是解决日益增长的家庭负债和下降的家庭消费的不可行的行动方针。因此，在调控政策利率以有效控制家庭债务和支出的同时，将房价和家庭债务维持在理想水平至关重要。与此同时，可能还需要其他政策工具，如宏观审慎和与住房有关的财政监管，以实现金融稳定。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat production in Türkiye 温度和降水对新疆小麦生产的影响

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS

Central Bank Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100191

Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan, Saide Simin Bayraktar

It is now a well-known fact that climate is changing globally at an unprecedented rate and agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to this change. Considered as a significant threat for food security, climate change and its impact on agricultural practices are among the most prominent topics in the recent economic literature. Given its significant contribution to employment, exports and national income, agricultural production-climate change relation is considerably crucial for the Turkish economy. In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate change on wheat production at the province-level with a unique, up-to-date and comprehensive dataset that is constructed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) under the Early Warning System Project (EWSP). In the corresponding models, climate change is initially considered in a conventional way via temperature and precipitation measures, later considered with new alternative composite climate indicators. The estimation results obtained from models with two different alternative climate measures are comparable and similar: Climate change has a statistically significant adverse impact on wheat production. Combining model estimation results with the climate scenarios, the impact of hotter springs and summers on wheat production for different time spans has been put forward. The impact is found to be increasing over time, regardless severity of the climate scenarios. We believe that our understanding regarding climate change-agricultural production relation will improve with the advancements of the data set, and this will support the development of more efficient policy recommendations.

众所周知，全球气候正在以前所未有的速度变化，而农业是最容易受到这种变化影响的部门之一。气候变化被认为是对粮食安全的重大威胁，它对农业实践的影响是最近经济文献中最突出的主题之一。鉴于农业生产对就业、出口和国民收入的重大贡献，农业生产与气候变化的关系对土耳其经济至关重要。在本文中，我们利用基伊共和国中央银行（CBRT）在预警系统项目（EWSP）下构建的独特、最新和全面的数据集，研究了气候变化对省级小麦生产的影响。在相应的模式中，气候变化最初以传统方式通过温度和降水测量来考虑，后来用新的替代复合气候指标来考虑。采用两种不同备选气候措施的模型得到的估算结果具有可比性和相似性：气候变化对小麦生产具有统计上显著的不利影响。结合模型估算结果和气候情景，提出了不同时间跨度春夏气候变暖对小麦产量的影响。研究发现，无论气候情景的严重程度如何，这种影响都会随着时间的推移而增加。我们相信，随着数据集的完善，我们对气候变化与农业生产关系的理解将会提高，这将有助于制定更有效的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0