Y. Bubeev, B. Vladimirskiy, I. Ushakov, V. Usov, A. Bogomolov
Quantitative approaches based on mathematical modelling are used to justify a set of measures aimed at justifying a set of preventive measures to protect the life and health of older people in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis of the state of development of actuarial mathematical models of mortality in the COVID-19 epidemic shows the need to construct models that reflect the dynamics of the studied ratios of infection rates, morbidity, recovery and mortality in the dynamics of the pandemic, taking into account the influence of external factors on this process. Most of the known mathematical models for predicting the spread and consequences of COVID-19 are compartmental models that implement sequential transitions between states with the allocation of groups of individuals with different affiliation to the progression/decline of the spread of infection. To compensate for the shortcomings of the compartmental models due to the assumption of population homogeneity and the lack of adequate approaches to the scalability of the simulation results, models based on the Monte Carlo method and the concept of multi- agent systems are used. The development of modelling methods is associated with the need to expand information support for healthcare professionals and health care organizers with the possibility of online configuration of parameters of mathematical models and the use of data from 3/4 cloud services with visualization of the results of modelling.
{"title":"Mathematical Modelling of Spread COVID-19 Epidemic for Preventive Measures to Protect Life and Health of Elderly","authors":"Y. Bubeev, B. Vladimirskiy, I. Ushakov, V. Usov, A. Bogomolov","doi":"10.14529/mmp210307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210307","url":null,"abstract":"Quantitative approaches based on mathematical modelling are used to justify a set of measures aimed at justifying a set of preventive measures to protect the life and health of older people in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis of the state of development of actuarial mathematical models of mortality in the COVID-19 epidemic shows the need to construct models that reflect the dynamics of the studied ratios of infection rates, morbidity, recovery and mortality in the dynamics of the pandemic, taking into account the influence of external factors on this process. Most of the known mathematical models for predicting the spread and consequences of COVID-19 are compartmental models that implement sequential transitions between states with the allocation of groups of individuals with different affiliation to the progression/decline of the spread of infection. To compensate for the shortcomings of the compartmental models due to the assumption of population homogeneity and the lack of adequate approaches to the scalability of the simulation results, models based on the Monte Carlo method and the concept of multi- agent systems are used. The development of modelling methods is associated with the need to expand information support for healthcare professionals and health care organizers with the possibility of online configuration of parameters of mathematical models and the use of data from 3/4 cloud services with visualization of the results of modelling.","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89226645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling for Pointing of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes in TAIGA Experiment","authors":"D. Zhurov","doi":"10.14529/mmp210409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210409","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89326871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Application of the Smooth Approximation of the Probability Function in Some Applied Stochastic Programming Problems","authors":"V. Sobol, R.O. Torishnyy","doi":"10.14529/mmp210303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210303","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74163463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Numerical Research to Determine the Dominant Mechanism of Mass and Heat Transfer in Pressure Swing Adsorption Processes","authors":"O. Golubyatnikov, E. Akulinin, S. Dvoretsky","doi":"10.14529/mmp210204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210204","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88173910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Pompeiu Integral and Its Generalizations","authors":"A. Soldatov","doi":"10.14529/MMP210105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/MMP210105","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"44 1","pages":"60-74"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74546277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mathematical Modelling of Industrial Equipment Operation Based on Markov Processes","authors":"V. Mokhov, G. Chebotareva","doi":"10.14529/mmp210210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210210","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"616 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77653957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. E. Belyaev, D. A. Mastyuk, I. R. Mekeeva, E. E. Pigasov
{"title":"Adaptation of Kuropatenko Method for Calculating Shock Waves in Euler Coordinates","authors":"P. E. Belyaev, D. A. Mastyuk, I. R. Mekeeva, E. E. Pigasov","doi":"10.14529/MMP210107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/MMP210107","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"75 1","pages":"91-103"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86164887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Numerical Analysis of a Linearized One-Dimensional Hydraulic Jump Model","authors":"E. V. Semenko, T. I. Semenko","doi":"10.14529/mmp210406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210406","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"161 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76421151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Analytical Study of the Mathematical Model of Wave Propagation in Shallow Water by the Galerkin Method","authors":"E. Bychkov","doi":"10.14529/MMP210102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/MMP210102","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76685744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"One-Dimensional Kalman Filter in Algorithms for Numerical Solution of the Problem of Optimal Dynamic Measurement","authors":"A. Shestakov, A. Keller","doi":"10.14529/mmp210411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14529/mmp210411","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44106,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series-Mathematical Modelling Programming & Computer Software","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86814444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：