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The sustainable lifestyle level: How real salary increases affect adequate retirement provision 可持续的生活方式水平:实际工资增长如何影响充足的退休保障
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2087357
Elze-Mari Roux, J. de Villiers
ABSTRACT This article studies the effect of real increases in salary on required contribution rates when saving for retirement to maintain a Sustainable Lifestyle Level (SLL). We consider two strategies. The first sets conventional contribution rates, recalculating whenever an increase occurs. This requires smaller initial contribution rates, which then need to be increased later in the employee’s working life. The second strategy requires that a constant contribution rate be maintained that allows for the anticipated increases. This rate requires a substantially higher contribution rate from the start. The result is particularly important for setting appropriate default contribution rates for defined contribution retirement funds.
摘要本文研究了为维持可持续生活水平(SLL)而进行退休储蓄时,工资实际增长对所需缴费率的影响。我们考虑两种策略。第一个设定了传统的缴费率,每当出现增长时就重新计算。这需要较小的初始供款率,然后在员工的工作生涯后期需要增加。第二种战略要求维持一个恒定的缴款率,以允许预期的增加。这个比率要求从一开始就有高得多的缴款率。这一结果对于为固定缴款退休基金设定合适的默认供款率尤为重要。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of algorithmic trading on market quality: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange 算法交易对市场质量的影响:来自约翰内斯堡证券交易所的证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2090056
Aurélie Courdent, D. McClelland
ABSTRACT High-frequency trading (HFT) is a trading method that relies on sophisticated algorithms to analyse markets and execute large numbers of orders within milliseconds. In the last two decades, this new technology has gained traction globally and now accounts for the majority of the trading volume on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Despite the dominance of HFT, studies on the topic have been scarce outside of the United States. This study seeks to examine the effects of HFT on market quality in a South African context. First, the study makes use of a set of proxies for algorithmic trading (AT), namely average trade size, odd-lot volume ratio and trade-to-order volume ratio. Second, panel regressions are used to determine the relationship between these proxies and two measures of market quality (market liquidity and short-term volatility). The study found a strong positive relationship between market liquidity and average trade size but an inverse relationship with the other two AT proxies. Finally, the study confirmed a strong positive relationship with short-term volatility. The study concludes that, overall, AT has a positive impact on market quality, despite carrying the risk of causing instability in certain markets.
高频交易(HFT)是一种依靠复杂的算法来分析市场并在几毫秒内执行大量订单的交易方法。在过去的二十年中,这项新技术在全球范围内获得了牵引力,现在占约翰内斯堡证券交易所(JSE)交易量的大部分。尽管高频交易占主导地位,但在美国以外,关于这一主题的研究很少。本研究旨在研究高频交易对南非市场质量的影响。首先,本文利用算法交易(AT)的一组代理,即平均交易规模、奇手交易量比和交易订单交易量比。其次,使用面板回归来确定这些代理与市场质量的两个指标(市场流动性和短期波动性)之间的关系。研究发现,市场流动性与平均交易规模之间存在强烈的正相关关系,但与其他两个AT代理呈反比关系。最后,该研究证实了与短期波动的强烈正相关关系。该研究的结论是,尽管在某些市场中存在导致不稳定的风险,但总体而言,自动交易对市场质量有积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Is the rand a commodity currency? A volatility spillover analysis 兰特是一种商品货币吗?波动性溢出分析
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2090079
A. Sayed, A. Charteris
ABSTRACT South Africa is a major commodity exporter, yet it is not clear what impact volatility in commodity prices has on the volatility of its currency. In this study, we examine whether a comprehensive sample of commodities (metals, grains and energy) transmit (or receive) volatility spillovers to (from) the rand exchange rate against the United States dollar for the period January 2000 to May 2022. This study uses the dynamic connectedness and volatility spillover approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) and Gabauer (2020). Our findings highlight the rand as a net receiver of volatility from almost every commodity examined, with silver and palladium exhibiting the strongest volatility spillover onto the rand. From a transmission perspective, there is some evidence that the rand can be considered a commodity currency for metal exports but there may also be other channels to explain the impact of these commodities on the currency. The results have important implications for policymakers, currency traders and hedgers in commodity markets.
摘要南非是一个主要的大宗商品出口国,但目前尚不清楚大宗商品价格的波动对其货币的波动有何影响。在这项研究中,我们考察了2000年1月至2022年5月期间,大宗商品(金属、粮食和能源)的综合样本是否向兰特兑美元汇率传递(或接收)波动溢出效应。本研究采用了Diebold和Yilmaz(20122014)以及Gabauer(2020)的动态连通性和波动溢出方法。我们的研究结果强调,兰特是几乎所有受检商品波动性的净接收器,银和钯对兰特的波动性溢出最强。从传导角度来看,有一些证据表明,兰特可以被视为金属出口的商品货币,但也可能有其他渠道来解释这些商品对货币的影响。研究结果对政策制定者、货币交易员和大宗商品市场对冲者具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
Performance of factor models in explaining anomalous return patterns: Evidence from Pakistan 因子模型在解释异常回归模式中的表现:来自巴基斯坦的证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2084222
Mehak Younus, Hilal Anwar Butt
ABSTRACT We compared classic and contemporary asset pricing factor models in explaining anomalous returns in the Pakistani stock market using a sample of 290 companies listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange. We replicated 54 anomalies with a successful replication rate of 31.5%. We also replicated the factors of chosen factor models, including Fama and French's three-, five-, and six-factor models and an alternate six-factor model; Hou, Xue, and Zhang's q-factor model and an alternate q-factor model; and Stambaugh and Yuan's mispricing factor model and an alternate mispricing factor model. The performance of the factor models is tested using various time-series tests. We found that there is no clear winner in explaining anomalous returns, and we require other approaches to test the models’ abilities in explaining anomalies in Pakistan.
本文以290家在巴基斯坦证券交易所上市的公司为样本,比较了经典和现代资产定价因子模型在解释巴基斯坦股票市场异常收益方面的作用。我们复制了54个异常,成功复制率为31.5%。我们还复制了所选因素模型的因素,包括Fama和French的三因素、五因素和六因素模型以及另一种六因素模型;Hou, Xue, and Zhang的q-factor模型和另一个q-factor模型;以及Stambaugh和Yuan的错误定价因素模型和另一个错误定价因素模型。使用各种时间序列测试来测试因子模型的性能。我们发现在解释异常收益方面没有明确的赢家,我们需要其他方法来测试模型在解释巴基斯坦异常方面的能力。
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引用次数: 3
Economic policy uncertainty and industry portfolio returns in the United States 美国经济政策的不确定性与产业投资组合回报
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2076379
Asil Azimli
ABSTRACT This paper examines whether returns on 49 different industry portfolios in the United States (US) expose significantly to the US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) even after controlling for the market and firm-specific risk factors. We find that the US EPU can load significantly against the returns of 15 industry portfolios which include stocks from heavy manufacturing and export dependent industries. However, further asset pricing tests show that the US EPU cannot improve the ability of a benchmark model to capture average industry returns. Additionally, the impact of EPU is time-dependent and significant only during specific periods which are different for each industry. Using a portfolio analysis, we also test whether EPU can forecast future returns. Results imply that the return-EPU relationship is almost flat.
摘要本文考察了美国49个不同行业投资组合的回报是否显著暴露于美国经济政策不确定性(EPU),即使在控制了市场和企业特定风险因素之后。我们发现,美国EPU可以对15个行业组合的回报显著加载,其中包括重工业和出口依赖型行业的股票。然而,进一步的资产定价测试表明,美国EPU无法提高基准模型捕捉行业平均回报率的能力。此外,EPU的影响是时间依赖性的,仅在特定时期显著,这对每个行业都是不同的。通过投资组合分析,我们还检验了EPU能否预测未来收益。结果表明,收益- epu关系几乎是平的。
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引用次数: 0
Is a sentiment-based trading strategy profitable? 基于情绪的交易策略有利可图吗?
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2076373
Karam Kim, Doojin Ryu, Jinyoung Yu
ABSTRACT We examine whether sentiment indices predict individual firms’ stock returns and evaluate the performances of sentiment-based trading strategies in the Korean equity market. We find that the sentiment indices (constructed using the principal component analysis (PCA) and overnight stock returns) positively predict stock price movements, whereas news sentiment does not significantly determine future stock returns. A comparison of portfolio performances among sentiment indices reveals that the long-short equity strategy based on PCA sentiment changes yields the highest return – a result that is not explained by well-known risk factors. Moreover, investors may earn even greater returns by employing multiple sentiment measures when constructing portfolios, suggesting that each measure reflects different aspects of investor sentiment.
摘要我们研究了情绪指数是否能预测单个公司的股票回报,并评估了韩国股市中基于情绪的交易策略的表现。我们发现,情绪指数(使用主成分分析(PCA)和隔夜股票回报构建)正预测股价走势,而新闻情绪并不能显著决定未来股票回报。对情绪指数之间投资组合表现的比较表明,基于PCA情绪变化的多空股票策略产生了最高的回报——这一结果无法用众所周知的风险因素来解释。此外,投资者在构建投资组合时,通过采用多种情绪指标,可能会获得更高的回报,这表明每种指标都反映了投资者情绪的不同方面。
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引用次数: 6
Does the elderly’s private pension ownership intensify aggregate equity demand? Empirical evidence in the US 老年人的私人养老金所有权是否加剧了总股本需求?美国的经验证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2073049
S. Kim, Young-min Kim, Dennis W. Jansen, Yanxin Lu
ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate how the old generation income structure affects aggregate equity purchases, using Flows of Funds Accounts and Survey of Consumer Finances. Our results suggest that the risk aversion that increases with age could be modified to incorporate the old’s pension ownership. In particular, private pension income to elder households are related to increased aggregate equity purchases, even considering other pension and all other income. In this sense, private pensions are a ‘stepping-stone’ to increased equity investment in US households.
摘要在本文中,我们使用资金账户流动和消费者金融调查来研究旧一代收入结构如何影响总股权购买。我们的研究结果表明,随着年龄的增长,风险厌恶情绪可以被修改,以纳入老年人的养老金所有权。特别是,老年家庭的私人养老金收入与总股本购买量的增加有关,即使考虑到其他养老金和所有其他收入。从这个意义上说,私人养老金是增加美国家庭股权投资的“垫脚石”。
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引用次数: 0
The asymmetric relationship between volatility index and volatility-of-volatility index 波动率指数与波动率指数波动性的非对称关系
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2087828
Adian McFarlane, A. Das, Y. Jung
ABSTRACT We use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to assess the asymmetric relationship between the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index (VIX) and volatility-of-volatility index (VVIX) over the period January 2007 to March 2020. To control for potentially confounding factors, we include measures for economic policy uncertainty and the volatility risk premium. There are three key findings. First, we find that there is an asymmetric long run cointegrating positive relationship running from VVIX to VIX. In this long run relationship, VIX is more responsive to deceases in VVIX than increases in VVIX. Second, we also find an asymmetric short run relationship between VIX and VVIX. However, in contrast to the long run results, for the short run VIX is more responsive to increases in VVIX than decreases in VVIX. Third, consistent with other studies, we find that in the long run VIX rises with greater economic policy uncertainty but falls with increases in the volatility risk premium. We discuss the implications of our findings for practitioners in risk and portfolio management, derivative pricing, and trading.
摘要本文采用非线性自回归分布滞后模型对2007年1月至2020年3月期间芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)和波动率-波动率指数(VVIX)之间的不对称关系进行了评估。为了控制潜在的混淆因素,我们纳入了经济政策不确定性和波动性风险溢价的措施。有三个主要发现。首先,我们发现从VVIX到VIX之间存在不对称的长期协整正关系。在这种长期关系中,VIX对VIX的下降比VIX的上升更敏感。其次,我们还发现VIX和VVIX之间存在不对称的短期关系。然而,与长期结果相反,短期波动率指数对波动率指数上升的反应比对波动率指数下降的反应更灵敏。第三,与其他研究一致,我们发现在长期内,VIX随经济政策不确定性的增加而上升,但随波动率风险溢价的增加而下降。我们讨论了我们的研究结果对风险和投资组合管理、衍生品定价和交易从业者的影响。
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引用次数: 1
How does (C)CAPM digest anomalies? (C)CAPM如何消化异常?
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2034353
Qi Shi
ABSTRACT In a pioneering effort, we re-evaluate the performance of (C)CAPM (joint CAPM and consumption CAPM) in digesting a large number of anomalies. Our key contribution illustrates that the performance of (C)CAPM appears to be quite sensitive to the choice of weighting matrix. OLS cross-sectional regression reveals the poor performance of (C)CAPM. In contrast, the CAPM model actually explains a large portion of anomalies quite well when using an efficient weighting matrix (GLS), indicating that the prior expectation that the CAPM exhibits poor empirical performance should fundamentally be reversed.
在开创性的努力中,我们重新评估(C)CAPM(联合CAPM和消耗CAPM)在消化大量异常方面的性能。我们的主要贡献表明,(C)CAPM的性能似乎对权重矩阵的选择相当敏感。OLS横截面回归显示(C)CAPM的性能较差。相比之下,当使用有效加权矩阵(GLS)时,CAPM模型实际上很好地解释了大部分异常,这表明先前对CAPM表现出较差的经验表现的期望应该从根本上逆转。
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引用次数: 1
Financial constraints and the financial distress puzzle: Evidence from a frontier market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic 财务约束与财务困境之谜:新冠肺炎大流行之前和期间前沿市场的证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10293523.2022.2037202
Khoa Dang Duong, Linh Thi Diem Truong, Tran Ngoc Bao Huynh, Quang T. Luu
ABSTRACT We are the first ever to examine the financial constraints and distress risk puzzle of listed manufacturing firms in Vietnam. We employ different estimation methods such as portfolio sorting, Fama Macbeth regression, and asset pricing models to analyse a sample containing 27 300 firm-month observations from 2008 to 2021. Our empirical evidence figures out that the Z-score anomaly exists in the Vietnam stock market before the Covid-19 pandemic. The distress risk puzzle also exists after controlling for financial constraints and other firm characteristics. Moreover, the asset pricing model results conjecture that the distress risk is a priced factor. The average raw returns difference and risk-adjusted returns difference between stocks in the highest and lowest Z-score terciles are around 1% per month. However, we figure out that the Z-score puzzle disappears during the pandemic. Finally, our study employs a two-way sorting methodology to examine the causality between the distress puzzle and financial constraints. Our study figures out that distress risks cause higher financial constraints, not the other way around. Our findings support managers and policymakers in managing the default risk, especially during the pandemic.
摘要我们首次研究了越南上市制造业公司的财务约束和困境风险难题。我们采用不同的估计方法,如投资组合排序、法玛麦克白回归和资产定价模型,分析了包含27300个2008年至2021年公司月观察数据的样本。我们的经验证据表明,在新冠肺炎大流行之前,越南股市存在Z-score异常。在控制了财务约束和其他企业特征后,也存在着困境风险难题。此外,资产定价模型的结果推测,困境风险是一个定价因素。z得分最高和最低的股票之间的平均原始收益差和风险调整后的收益差每月约为1%。然而,我们发现z分数谜题在大流行期间消失了。最后,我们的研究采用双向排序方法来检验困境难题与财务约束之间的因果关系。我们的研究表明,困境风险导致更高的财务约束,而不是相反。我们的研究结果支持管理者和政策制定者管理违约风险,特别是在大流行期间。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
Investment Analysts Journal
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