An event study is used to assess the views of Keynes and Friedman on speculation. Speculative extremes are ranked by intensity of sentiment and weight of speculative activity. A unique dataset of risk-reversal skew on option prices is used to measure the intensity of speculative sentiment; the weight of positions is based on US regulatory data. The extremes say little about the future in either case, suggesting that speculation is more than just random noise and supporting the view there is some informational content that is being passed through to the price with speculative activity.
{"title":"Speculation in the Foreign Exchange: Noise or Information?","authors":"R. Hayward","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2631584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2631584","url":null,"abstract":"An event study is used to assess the views of Keynes and Friedman on speculation. Speculative extremes are ranked by intensity of sentiment and weight of speculative activity. A unique dataset of risk-reversal skew on option prices is used to measure the intensity of speculative sentiment; the weight of positions is based on US regulatory data. The extremes say little about the future in either case, suggesting that speculation is more than just random noise and supporting the view there is some informational content that is being passed through to the price with speculative activity.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129605396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-05-06DOI: 10.1108/JEAS-05-2015-0013
Islam Amer
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the sensitivity of foreign exchange exposure through the cash flow estimation method using a sample of 59 UK insurance companies. This approach allows a decomposition of exposures into short- and long-term components. By revealing the nature of their cash flow exposures, companies can evaluate the effectiveness of their hedging programmes and focus their hedging efforts according to the nature of their exposures. Design/methodology/approach Martin and Mauer’s (2003, 2005) three-stage model is used to estimate foreign exchange rate transaction exposures for the sample of 65 UK insurance companies over the period 2004-2013. However, this paper has one important innovation to this method. Instead of the model used in previous papers, the paper uses a model from the actuarial field that was proposed by Blum et al. (2001) for modelling foreign exchange rates with their relevant constituents (inflation and interest rate). Findings The evidence shows that the currency transaction exposure for non-life insurers is greater than that of life insurers. Moreover, the author finds that large insurers exhibit lower frequencies of foreign exchange transaction exposure than small insurers. Originality/value The value of this paper comes from the fact that revealing the nature of cash flow exposures, companies can evaluate the effectiveness of their hedging programmes and focus their hedging efforts according to the nature of their exposures.
{"title":"Modelling Foreign Exchange Rate Transaction Exposure of UK Insurance Companies: A Cash Flow-Based Methodology","authors":"Islam Amer","doi":"10.1108/JEAS-05-2015-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-05-2015-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000The purpose of this paper is to study the sensitivity of foreign exchange exposure through the cash flow estimation method using a sample of 59 UK insurance companies. This approach allows a decomposition of exposures into short- and long-term components. By revealing the nature of their cash flow exposures, companies can evaluate the effectiveness of their hedging programmes and focus their hedging efforts according to the nature of their exposures. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Design/methodology/approach \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Martin and Mauer’s (2003, 2005) three-stage model is used to estimate foreign exchange rate transaction exposures for the sample of 65 UK insurance companies over the period 2004-2013. However, this paper has one important innovation to this method. Instead of the model used in previous papers, the paper uses a model from the actuarial field that was proposed by Blum et al. (2001) for modelling foreign exchange rates with their relevant constituents (inflation and interest rate). \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Findings \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000The evidence shows that the currency transaction exposure for non-life insurers is greater than that of life insurers. Moreover, the author finds that large insurers exhibit lower frequencies of foreign exchange transaction exposure than small insurers. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Originality/value \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000The value of this paper comes from the fact that revealing the nature of cash flow exposures, companies can evaluate the effectiveness of their hedging programmes and focus their hedging efforts according to the nature of their exposures.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126255071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In asset classes such as equities, the market beta is fairly clear. However, this question is more difficult to answer within FX, where there is no obvious beta. To help answer the question, we discuss generic FX styles that can be used as a proxy for the returns of a typical FX investor. We also look at the properties of a portfolio of these generic styles. This FX styles portfolio has an information ratio of 0.64 since 1976. Unlike its individual components, the FX styles portfolio returns are relatively stable with respect to underlying regimes in S&P500. Later we replicate FX fund returns using a combination of these generic FX styles. We show that a combination of FX trend and carry, can be used as a beta for the FX market. Later, we examine the relationship between bank indices and these generic FX styles. We find that there is a significant correlation in most instances, with some exceptions.
{"title":"Beta'em Up: What is Market Beta in FX?","authors":"Saeed Amen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2439854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2439854","url":null,"abstract":"In asset classes such as equities, the market beta is fairly clear. However, this question is more difficult to answer within FX, where there is no obvious beta. To help answer the question, we discuss generic FX styles that can be used as a proxy for the returns of a typical FX investor. We also look at the properties of a portfolio of these generic styles. This FX styles portfolio has an information ratio of 0.64 since 1976. Unlike its individual components, the FX styles portfolio returns are relatively stable with respect to underlying regimes in S&P500. Later we replicate FX fund returns using a combination of these generic FX styles. We show that a combination of FX trend and carry, can be used as a beta for the FX market. Later, we examine the relationship between bank indices and these generic FX styles. We find that there is a significant correlation in most instances, with some exceptions.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126563842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We elaborate on a new distributional scheme resulting from the generalised Pearson distribution with application to financial modelling. As case studies, we consider the major historical indices daily returns, DJIA, NASDAQ composite, FTSE100, CAC40, DAX and S%P500, as well as, high-frequency returns of the Euro/Japanese Yen foreign currency exchange rates. Using non-linear optimisation techniques, we compare the results of the maximum likelihood estimator of the new distribution to the results of the Pearson type-IV distribution. The main findings indicate that the new distribution improves the value of the estimator in all cases, with significant improvement below the 60-min sampling.
{"title":"On the Generalized Pearson Distribution for Application in Financial Time Series Modeling","authors":"S. Stavroyiannis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2308436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2308436","url":null,"abstract":"We elaborate on a new distributional scheme resulting from the generalised Pearson distribution with application to financial modelling. As case studies, we consider the major historical indices daily returns, DJIA, NASDAQ composite, FTSE100, CAC40, DAX and S%P500, as well as, high-frequency returns of the Euro/Japanese Yen foreign currency exchange rates. Using non-linear optimisation techniques, we compare the results of the maximum likelihood estimator of the new distribution to the results of the Pearson type-IV distribution. The main findings indicate that the new distribution improves the value of the estimator in all cases, with significant improvement below the 60-min sampling.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121442502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-07-06DOI: 10.21511/IMFI.8(3).2011.01
A. Plastun, S. Kozmenko
Speculators exert more and more influence on prices on world exchange markets. Often the result of this is a formation of so-called “bubbles” with subsequent shocks to national and global economy. The purpose of speculators is earnings in a relatively short period of time using the differences in prices for exchange assets. Most of the speculators as a reference point for decision-making use technical analysis methods (prediction of future prices based on previous prices).Using more sophisticated methods gives advantage and opportunity to earn on a relatively short-term fluctuations in the exchange markets.General rules of technical analysis applied to all types of exchange markets – foreign exchange and stock markets, commodity markets and markets for derivative financial instruments. Thus, developing of a new technical indicator or trading strategy for FOREX (foreign exchange market) can be applied to analyze prices of gold or oil, stock indices and stock prices.
{"title":"Indicators DZ and RDZ: Essence, Methods of Calculation, Signals and Rules of Trading","authors":"A. Plastun, S. Kozmenko","doi":"10.21511/IMFI.8(3).2011.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21511/IMFI.8(3).2011.01","url":null,"abstract":"Speculators exert more and more influence on prices on world exchange markets. Often the result of this is a formation of so-called “bubbles” with subsequent shocks to national and global economy. The purpose of speculators is earnings in a relatively short period of time using the differences in prices for exchange assets. Most of the speculators as a reference point for decision-making use technical analysis methods (prediction of future prices based on previous prices).Using more sophisticated methods gives advantage and opportunity to earn on a relatively short-term fluctuations in the exchange markets.General rules of technical analysis applied to all types of exchange markets – foreign exchange and stock markets, commodity markets and markets for derivative financial instruments. Thus, developing of a new technical indicator or trading strategy for FOREX (foreign exchange market) can be applied to analyze prices of gold or oil, stock indices and stock prices.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114791656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present study has extended the analysis of Dash et al (2008) in comparing the performance of different hedging strategies, approaching the problem from the point of view of exchange rate dynamics, using a model for exchange rate movements. Based on the results of the simulation of this model, the hedging strategies which yielded highest returns and lowest variability of returns could be identified.
{"title":"Exchange Rate Dynamics and Forex Hedging Strategies","authors":"M. Dash, Anand Kumar N.S.","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1412745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1412745","url":null,"abstract":"The present study has extended the analysis of Dash et al (2008) in comparing the performance of different hedging strategies, approaching the problem from the point of view of exchange rate dynamics, using a model for exchange rate movements. Based on the results of the simulation of this model, the hedging strategies which yielded highest returns and lowest variability of returns could be identified.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"152 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128785351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Macau pegs its currency, the pataca, to the Hong Kong dollar, which in turn is pegged to the U.S. dollar. This type of pegging order is unique in the annals of international financial arrangements. This article analyzes the structure of the pegged exchange rate systems in Macau and Hong Kong and discusses the financial and economic implications of these systems for the two territories.
{"title":"Pegged Exchange Rate Systems in Macau and Hong Kong","authors":"R. Scott","doi":"10.17578/1-2-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17578/1-2-5","url":null,"abstract":"Macau pegs its currency, the pataca, to the Hong Kong dollar, which in turn is pegged to the U.S. dollar. This type of pegging order is unique in the annals of international financial arrangements. This article analyzes the structure of the pegged exchange rate systems in Macau and Hong Kong and discusses the financial and economic implications of these systems for the two territories.","PeriodicalId":445453,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Foreign Exchange (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129334575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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