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Special issue on advanced methods to measure tourism impacts. Editors’ introduction 关于衡量旅游影响的先进方法的特刊。编辑的介绍
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00182-4
A. Correia, P. Rodrigues, E. Smeral
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引用次数: 0
Generational Accounting in Portugal 葡萄牙的代际会计
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-08-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00180-6
Jorge Pinheiro
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引用次数: 3
Causal interactions among tourism, foreign direct investment, domestic credits, and economic growth: evidence from selected Mediterranean countries 旅游业、外国直接投资、国内信贷和经济增长之间的因果关系:来自选定地中海国家的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00181-5
Ayhan Tecel, Salih Katircioğlu, Elham Taheri, Festus Victor Bekun
This study explores the nexus between tourism and economic growth in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea while controlling for foreign direct investment and domestic credits as additional variables within a multivariate panel framework. Empirical evidence is based on annual data from 1995 to 2016 for a panel of 14 selected countries around the Mediterranean Sea region. The findings from the bootstrap panel cointegration test proposed by Westerlund (2007) confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables under inspection. Subsequently, the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed model (PMG-ARDL) estimations suggest positively significant relationships between tourism and economic growth both in short-term, and long-term periods. Thus, this study joins the group of studies that lend support to the tourism-led growth hypothesis. This result was further substantiated by the results of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality analysis, as feedback causality was observed between tourism and economic growth, while unidirectional causality was seen from foreign direct investment to economic growth. That is in support of the foreign direct investment-driven economic growth hypothesis. Strikingly, no causal relationship was observed between domestic credits and economic growth.
本研究探讨了地中海沿岸国家旅游业与经济增长之间的关系,同时在多变量面板框架内控制外国直接投资和国内信贷作为额外变量。经验证据基于1995年至2016年地中海地区14个选定国家的年度数据。Westerlund(2007)提出的自举面板协整检验结果证实了被检变量之间的长期均衡关系。随后,Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed model (PMG-ARDL)估计表明旅游业与经济增长在短期和长期都存在显著的正相关关系。因此,本研究加入了支持旅游带动增长假说的研究小组。Dumitrescu和Hurlin(2012)的因果分析结果进一步证实了这一结果,旅游业与经济增长之间存在反馈因果关系,而外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系。这是对外国直接投资驱动经济增长假说的支持。引人注目的是,国内信贷与经济增长之间没有因果关系。
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引用次数: 38
Online word-of-mouth and market structure 网络口碑和市场结构
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00177-1
C. Santos
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引用次数: 1
Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital 老龄化、人力资本和人口红利与内生增长、劳动力供应和外国资本
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00176-2
T. Ziesemer, Anne von Gässler
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引用次数: 3
A new career in a new town. Job search methods and regional mobility of unemployed workers 新城市的新事业。求职方式与失业人员的区域流动
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00175-3
Andrea Morescalchi

Labour mobility is critical for adjusting imbalance between local labour markets. Yet, labour markets appear still very localized. Existing studies on job search report that the choice of search methods influences job outcomes, with social contacts accounting for a substantial fraction of job matches. Whether search methods are conducive to local or national jobs has not been examined yet. This paper establishes a link between job search and regional mobility, investigating the impact of search methods on unemployment exits within and across local labour markets. The effect of search methods is estimated by a Propensity Score Matching approach, using data from the British Household Panel Survey. Results show that only direct approach to employers enhances the job hazard with regional move. Conversely, social contacts and advertisements are found to increase the hazard to local employment, although the effect of social contacts wears off as the unemployment spell prolongs. No impact is found by Employment Agencies on either exit. These findings suggest that the widespread use of social contacts, while enhancing job matches in the local labour market, might contribute to restrict labour mobility. Therefore, they bear support to policies promoting diffusion and efficacy of alternative methods, particularly when the target is long-term unemployment. Results also point out the opportunity of reforms of the job search assistance and placement service offered by Employment Agencies, taking these limitations into account.

劳动力流动对于调整当地劳动力市场之间的不平衡至关重要。然而,劳动力市场似乎仍然非常本地化。现有的求职研究报告表明,求职方法的选择会影响求职结果,社交关系占了求职匹配的很大一部分。搜索方法是否有利于地方或国家就业还没有得到检验。本文建立了求职与区域流动性之间的联系,调查了求职方法对当地劳动力市场内部和整个劳动力市场失业出口的影响。搜索方法的效果是通过倾向得分匹配方法来估计的,使用的数据来自英国家庭小组调查。结果表明,只有直接接触用人单位才会增加区域迁移的工作危险性。相反,社会联系和广告增加了对当地就业的危害,尽管社会联系的影响随着失业魔咒的延长而逐渐消失。职业介绍所对两种出口均未发现影响。这些发现表明,社会联系的广泛使用,虽然加强了当地劳动力市场的工作匹配,但可能有助于限制劳动力流动。因此,它们支持促进替代方法的推广和有效性的政策,特别是当目标是长期失业时。结果还指出,在考虑到这些局限性的情况下,职业介绍所提供的求职援助和就业服务存在改革的机会。
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引用次数: 1
Tourism and regional development: a spatial econometric model for Portugal at municipal level 旅游与区域发展:葡萄牙城市层面的空间计量经济模型
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00179-z
Luis Delfim Santos, A. C. Vieira
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引用次数: 12
“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq” “模拟伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区战争和恐怖主义对旅游需求的影响”
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00178-0
Ahmed Muhamad Omer, M. Yeşiltaş
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引用次数: 0
The effect of economic policy uncertainty under fractional integration 分数积分条件下经济政策不确定性的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-05-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3597759
Carlos D. Ramirez
One of the most popular measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is an index based on newspapers coverage of particular keywords. The constructed index is often then included in vector autoregression (VAR) models to examine the extent to which EPU affects economic activity. Researchers, however, have not investigated how the possibility of fractional integration in this index may affect the results. Under fractional integration, the effects of EPU on output in a standard VAR setting may be biased. After confirming that all EPU series posted in policyuncertainty.com are fractionally integrated processes, I estimate a fractionally cointegrated VAR (FCVAR) model to evaluate the dynamic effects of EPU. Likelihood ratio tests indicate that fractional cointegration cannot be rejected at low lag orders. In addition, I investigate the effect of EPU on output after applying various filters to remove the long-memory component. While I still find that EPU imparts a negative effect on output, relative to Baker et al. ( 2016 )’s results, the effects tend to be smaller in magnitude. Treating long memory, therefore, is important for accurate estimation of the dynamic effects.
衡量经济政策不确定性(EPU)的最常用方法之一是基于报纸对特定关键词报道的指数。构建的指数通常被包含在向量自回归(VAR)模型中,以检验EPU对经济活动的影响程度。然而,研究人员还没有研究分数积分在这个指数中的可能性如何影响结果。在分数积分下,EPU对标准VAR设置下输出的影响可能是有偏差的。在确认政策不确定性网站上发布的所有EPU系列都是分数积分过程后,我估计了一个分数协整VAR (FCVAR)模型来评估EPU的动态效应。似然比检验表明,分数协整在低滞后阶不能被拒绝。此外,我研究了EPU在应用各种滤波器去除长记忆组件后对输出的影响。虽然我仍然发现EPU对产出有负面影响,但相对于Baker等人(2016)的结果,这种影响的幅度往往较小。因此,处理长记忆对于准确估计动态效应是很重要的。
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引用次数: 0
Directed technical change and environmental quality 指导技术变革和环境质量
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00174-4
Óscar Afonso, Liliana Fonseca, Manuela Magalhães, P. Vasconcelos
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Portuguese Economic Journal
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